Ongoing discussions on international climate policy post 2012 17 October 2005 Niklas Höhne,...

Ongoing discussions on international climate policy post

2012

17 October 2005

Niklas Höhne, [email protected] Cologne, Germany

Ongoing discussions on international climate policy post 2012

ECOFYS Energy and Environment

• European research and consulting company

• In total 250 employees in the Netherlands, Germany, UK, Spain, Poland, Belgium, Italy

• Example projects:– Evaluation of the national allocation plans of the EU emission trading

system for the UK government – Work on future international climate commitments for, e.g., the German

Environmental Agency and EU Commission– Capacity building: Centres of excellence for CDM in India and South Africa


Future international action on climate change network

Collecting information - Activities- Institutions- Ideas

Discussion forum

www.fiacc.net

Funded by - German Federal

Environmental Agency- EU Commissions DG

Environment


Negotiation history

UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC): Industrialized countries reduce emissions to 1990 level in 2000

1992

Kyoto Protocol:Industrialized countries reduce 5% below 1990 in 2008 to 2012Open questions remain

1997

Detailed rules for the Kyoto Protocol are agreed (Emission trading, CDM, JI)2001

Kyoto Protocol enters into force16 Feb 2005

USA rejects the Kyoto ProtocolMach 2001

Conference of the Parties (COP) decides to hold a seminar on the future in May 2005Nov 2004


ContentOfficial / high level discussions

May 2005:UNFCCC Seminar of Governmental Experts (SOGE) June 2005:G8 Summit July 2005: Asia-Pacific Partnership on Development and ClimateAugust 2005:Greenland ministerial dialogue on climate changeSeptember 2005:Ministerial meeting in Ottawa October 2005:Informal Meeting organized by Japan/BrazilNovember 2005:COP11 and COP/MOP1

Informal / content dialoguesSeptember 2005:OECD Annex I Expert GroupSeptember 2005:Pew CenterOctober 2005:Center for Clean Air Policy (CCAP)


UNFCCC Seminar of Governmental Experts (SOGE) • First time to talk about the future in the UNFCCC context

- open, informal and relaxed atmosphere• No detailed proposals on how to move forward. EU was modest

Themes• Compensation for avoided deforestation. Papua New Guinea:

include deforestation and right emission target then it would obtain "Kyoto Protocol Annex I" status

• Simplification of CDM: Currently not living up to expectations

• Montreal Mandate: Called for by South Africa, Mexico, Argentina, Switzerland, EU,...


G8 Summit

• Will Continue dialogue on climate, energy and development (G8 +5 developing countries to meet 1 November 2005)

• At the same time strengthening of the UNFCCC as the negotiation forum

• Gleneagles plan of action:– Transforming the way we use energy– Powering a cleaner future– Promoting research and development– Financing the transition to cleaner energy– Managing the impact of climate change– Tackling illegal logging

• Created large momentum and efforts in the preparation, but did not change position of the USA


Asia-Pacific Partnership on Development and ClimateInitiative by Australia, China, India, Japan, South Korea, USA

• Agree to cooperate on technologies including energy efficiency, clean coal, carbon capture and storage, methane capture and use, civilian nuclear power, advanced transportation, agriculture and forestry, hydropower, wind, solar, …

• Meeting was scheduled for November but postponed


Greenland ministerial dialogue on climate change22 Ministers and heads of delegation (August 2005):

• “The blaming game” has to stop• COP/MOP1: development of the CDM beyond 2012• Develop an inclusive strategy beyond 2012: general

interest in exploring new options: – sectoral targets– voluntary commitments– further differentiation using different types of commitments


COP 11 and COP/MOP 1

Possible compromise• Continue the preparatory dialogue• Agreement on negotiating mandate at COP 12 (2006) to

finalize negotiations in 2008• Under the UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol

Canada’s guidelines• Enhance environmental effectiveness• Advance sustainable development goals• Broaden participation (sector strategies)• Building a strong global emissions market• Realise full potential of technology• Tackle adaptation


OECD Annex I expert group

Topics• Sectoral crediting mechanism (extended CDM)

• Compatibility of different types of commitments with emission trading (dynamic targets, price cap, sector targets)

• Options for integrating different approaches (e.g. emission targets and technology protocol): Comparison of efforts difficult but not necessarily impossible


PEW centerStrawman elements

• Aspirational Long-Term Goal: in temperature or concentration

• Targets and Trading: Absolute, dynamic and “no lose” targets

• Sectoral: Sector targets and trading, performance or technology standards

• Sustainable development policies: Verified reductions can be traded

• Technology: Coordinate research on long term technologies

• Adaptation– Include adaptation in lending practice of multilateral banks– offer subsidized climate disaster “insurance” to middle-income

developing countries


Center for Clean Air PolicyIssues

• Sector-based straw man proposal: voluntary “no lose” carbon intensity targets for the energy and major industry sectors in developing countries, coupled with absolute emissions limits in developed countries

• Prospects of merging different international efforts

• Insurance based approaches on adaptation


Conclusions• Increasing momentum, more activities than ever

• Strong focus on alternatives to absolute binding emission targets– Dynamic targets, price caps,…– Sectoral targets / sectoral standards– Technology agreements

• Accordingly: How can such different systems be merged/compared?

• Incentives for developing country participation: “No lose” targets, sector crediting mechanisms, sustainable development policies, revisiting CDM

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