Quantifying future emission paths: What is needed from whom to keep stabilization in reach 18...

Quantifying future emission paths: What is needed from whom to

keep stabilization in reach

18 October 2005

Niklas Höhne, [email protected] Cologne, Germany

Quantifying future emission paths

ECOFYS Energy and Environment

• European research and consulting company

• In total 250 employees in the Netherlands, Germany, UK, Spain, Poland, Belgium, Italy

• Example projects:– Evaluation of the national allocation plans of the EU emission trading system

for the UK government – Work on future international climate commitments for, e.g., the German

Environmental Agency and EU Commission– BASIC project: Capacity building on climate change negotiations with Brazil,

China, India and South Africa


Future international action on climate change network

Collecting information - Activities- Institutions- Ideas

Discussion forum

www.fiacc.net

Funded by - German Federal

Environmental Agency- EU Commissions DG

Environment


Content

1. From long-term targets to short term emission levels

2. Emission allowances under various proposals for international climate policy after 2012 and implications for South Africa

3. Conclusions


Time scales of stabilization

Source: IPCC Synthesis Report, 2001


Possible temperature trajectories

• 1000 to 1861, N. Hemisphere, proxy data;

• 1861 to 2000 Global, Instrumental;

• 2000 to 2100, SRES projections

Source: IPCC Synthesis Report, 2001

EU climate target of 2°C above pre-industrial level


Source:

IPCC Syntheses Report, 2001

EU climate target of 2°C

Linking temperature to concentration

Levels of CO2 concentration

Preindustrial: 280 ppmCurrent: 360 ppm


Stabilization pathways

0

1

2

34

5

6

7

8

9

10

1112

13

14

15

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

GtC

-100%

-80%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

Ch

ang

e to

199

0

Source: post SRES scenarios (stabilization paths), CO2 only

450ppm

550ppm

400ppm

Reference


Content

1. From long-term targets to short term emission levels

2. Emission allowances under various proposals for international climate policy after 2012 and implications for South Africa

3. Conclusions


Approaches

• Contraction and Convergence (C&C)

• Common but differentiated convergence

• Multistage

• Triptych


Contraction and Convergence• Contraction: Definition of global emission path (e.g 450ppmv)

• Convergence: Per capita emissions of all countries converge by 2050

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Em

issi

on

s p

er c

apit

a (t

CO

2eq

./p

erso

n)

Annex I

Global total

Non-Annex I


Common but differentiated convergence• Three stages

– No commitments– Positively binding emission targets – Convergence to an equal per capita level within e.g. 40

years as of entry

• Threshold for participation:

– World average GHG/capG

HG

/cap

Time

Threshold

N. Höhne, M. den Elzen, M. Weiß “Common but differentiated convergence (CDC) - A new conceptual approach to long-term climate policy” submitted to climate policy


Multistage approach

• Participation in e.g. four stages:

• Countries “graduate” to a next step, if threshold is passed, e.g. emissions/cap

No commitments

Sustainable development policies and measures

Moderate reduction

Reduction


Industry Adjusted BAU production growth with efficiency improvement

Electricity Adjusted BAU production growth with limit on sources

Domestic Converging per-capita emissions

Fossil fuel production

Decline to low level

Agricultural Percentage reduction below BAU

Waste Converging per-capita emissions

Land use change and forestry

Decline to zero (here excluded)

Triptych

Nat

ion

alem

issi

on

tar

get


Stabilization pathways

0

1

2

34

5

6

7

8

9

10

1112

13

14

15

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

GtC

-100%

-80%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

Ch

ang

e to

199

0

Source: post SRES scenarios (stabilization paths), CO2 only

450ppm

550ppm+30%

-25%

400ppm


Change 1990 to 2020 towards 450 ppm CO2

• Annex I: -10% to –30% below 1990• No participation: South Asia and Africa, except South Africa • Deviate from their reference: Latin America, Middle East, East Asia and

Centrally Planned Asia

450 ppmv 2020

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

US

A

EU

25

FR

A

GE

R

UK

R+E

EU

JPN

RA

I

C&CCDCMutistageTriptychReference

450 ppmv 2020

-50%

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

300%

RE

EU

LAM

AF

R

ME

SA

sia

CP

Asi

a

EA

sia



Change 1990 to 2050 towards 450 ppm CO2

• Annex I: -70% to -90% below 1990• Substantial deviation from reference in all Non-Annex I regions

450 ppmv 2050

-100%

-80%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

US

A

EU

25

FR

A

GE

R

UK

R+E

EU

JPN

RA

I


450 ppmv 2050

-100%

0%

100%

200%

300%

400%

500%

600%

700%

800%

900%

1000%

RE

EU

LAM

AF

R

ME

SA

sia

CP

Asi

a

EA

sia



Emissions per capita

GDP/cap

Source; Various sources including UNFCCC, IEA as reported in the EVOC model for the year 2000


Impact on South Africa

• 450 ppmv CO2 case: Deviation from reference for all modelled approaches by 2020

-50.0%

0.0%

50.0%

100.0%

150.0%

200.0%

250.0%

300.0%

350.0%

TU

R

RE

EU

AR

G

BR

Z

ME

X

VE

N

RLA

EG

Y

ZA

F

NG

A

RN

A

RA

F

SA

U

AR

E

RM

E

CH

N

IND

IDN

KO

R

MY

S

PH

L

SG

P

TH

A

RA

A

-50.0%

0.0%

50.0%

100.0%

150.0%

200.0%

250.0%

300.0%

350.0%T

UR

RE

EU

AR

G

BR

Z

ME

X

VE

N

RLA

EG

Y

ZA

F

NG

A

RN

A

RA

F

SA

U

AR

E

RM

E

CH

N

IND

IDN

KO

R

MY

S

PH

L

SG

P

TH

A

RA

A

-100.0%

100.0%

300.0%

500.0%

700.0%

900.0%

1100.0%

1300.0%

TU

R

RE

EU

AR

G

BR

Z

ME

X

VE

N

RLA

EG

Y

ZA

F

NG

A

RN

A

RA

F

SA

U

AR

E

RM

E

CH

N

IND

IDN

KO

R

MY

S

PH

L

SG

P

TH

A

RA

A

C&C 2050 convergence C&C 2100 convergence Multistage Triptych Reference

Change from 1990 level in 2020 under the 450 ppmv CO2 case


Effect of delay of action

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Glo

ba

l CO

2 e

mis

sio

ns

(G

tC)

Reference

Delayed 2020

Delayed 2015

Multistage

-2.2%

Maximum annual reduction rate

- 3.6%

>- 10%

> -10%

450 ppmv CO2

• Delay in the next decades significantly increases the efforts to to achieve the same environmental goal.


Conclusions• EU target of 2°C above pre-industrial levels: below 450 ppmv CO2

(average climate sensitivity)

• To keep 450 ppmv CO2 within reach– Global emissions need to drop below 1990 levels within a few decades– Developed country emissions would need to be reduced substantially – Developing country emissions need to deviate from the reference as soon

as possible, for some countries even as of 2020 (Latin America, Middle East, East Asia)

• Emissions per capita and GDP/cap of South Africa are above global average.

• Delay in the next decades significantly increases the efforts to achieve the same environmental goal


Side event

Workshop on Quantitative Tools & Negotiating Capacity

1. Introduction

2. Demonstration of the CAIT tool developed by WRI

3. Demonstration of the EVOC model developed by Ecofys

4. Demonstration of the FAIR model developed by MNP/RIVM

Venue: Room Gallagher 3

Wednesday 19th October

10am – 12.30pmB A S I C

Quantifying future emission paths: What is needed from whom to keep stabilization in reach 18...

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