OILCROPS - Food and Agriculture Organization · 2018-07-24 · Market assessments FOOD OUTLOOK JULY...
20
Market summaries FOOD OUTLOOK JULY 2018 Based on FAO’s latest forecasts, the 2017/18 supply and demand balance is set to tighten compared with 2016/17 for meals/cakes, while remaining at comfortable levels for oils/fats. Oilseed production in 2017/18 is poised to trail behind last season’s record, mainly reflecting reduced yield levels in a number of countries following adverse weather conditions. Lower soybean production is expected to be only partly offset by gains in other oilcrops. Most importantly, extreme weather conditions impaired Argentina’s soybean crop. The setback in Argentina, one of the world’s key suppliers of oil and meal, prompted shifts in global crushing and trade patterns. With, global consumption of meals set to expand and surpass production, global meal inventories are anticipated to be drawn down, but still remain close to historically high levels. Reflecting these developments, international oilseed and oilmeal prices have been under upward pressure during the first half of the season. Regarding oils/fats, global production is seen expanding further, underpinned by higher output of palm and rapeseed oils. Consumption is anticipated to continue to expand, with higher uptake by the biodiesel industry contributing to growth. With world production set to exceed demand, a further accumulation in global inventories is foreseen. Responding to the prospect of excess supplies and ample stock levels, prices of oils/fats have been on the decline since December 2017. Preliminary, highly tentative forecasts for 2018/19 point towards a further increase in global oilcrop production, which could give rise to record outputs of both oils and meals. Assuming a continuation of current consumption trends, the anticipated supply levels would be adequate to satisfy projected demand. In the past few weeks, the evolving trade dispute between the United States and China introduced considerable uncertainty into the market. While it remains to be seen how trade measures implemented by the two countries will affect markets for oilseeds and oilseed products, China’s pending introduction of retaliatory tariffs on soybean imports from the US triggered a plunge in world soybean and soymeal prices, with strong spillover effects across the oilcrops complex. OILCROPS Contact: [email protected]
Transcript of OILCROPS - Food and Agriculture Organization · 2018-07-24 · Market assessments FOOD OUTLOOK JULY...
Ma
rke
t sum
ma
ries
FOOD OUTLOOKJULY 2018
Based on FAO’s latest forecasts, the 2017/18 supply and demand balance is set to tighten compared with 2016/17 for meals/cakes, while remaining at comfortable levels for oils/fats.
Oilseed production in 2017/18 is poised to trail behind last season’s record, mainly reflecting reduced yield levels in a number of countries following adverse weather conditions. Lower soybean production is expected to be only partly offset by gains in other oilcrops. Most importantly, extreme weather conditions impaired Argentina’s soybean crop. The setback in Argentina, one of the world’s key suppliers of oil and meal, prompted shifts in global crushing and trade patterns. With, global consumption of meals set to expand and surpass production, global meal inventories are anticipated to be drawn down, but still remain close to historically high levels. Reflecting these developments, international oilseed and oilmeal prices have been under upward pressure during the first half of the season.
Regarding oils/fats, global production is seen expanding further, underpinned by higher output of palm and rapeseed oils. Consumption is anticipated to continue to expand, with higher uptake by the biodiesel industry contributing to growth. With world production set to exceed demand, a further accumulation in global inventories is foreseen. Responding to the prospect of excess supplies and ample stock levels, prices of oils/fats have been on the decline since December 2017.
Preliminary, highly tentative forecasts for 2018/19 point towards a further increase in global oilcrop production, which could give rise to record outputs of both oils and meals. Assuming a continuation of current consumption trends, the anticipated supply levels would be adequate to satisfy projected demand.
In the past few weeks, the evolving trade dispute between the United States and China introduced considerable uncertainty into the market. While it remains to be seen how trade measures implemented by the two countries will affect markets for oilseeds and oilseed products, China’s pending introduction of retaliatory tariffs on soybean imports from the US triggered a plunge in world soybean and soymeal prices, with strong spillover effects across the oilcrops complex.
OILCROPS
Contact:[email protected]
Ma
rke
t a
sse
ssm
en
ts
FOOD OUTLOOKJULY 2018
Major Oilseed Exporters and Importers
Major ExportersMajor Importers
Figure 1. FAO monthly international price indices for oilseeds, vegetable oils and meals/cakes (2002-2004=100)
OILCROPS, OILS AND MEALS 1
1 Almost the entire volume of oilcrops harvested worldwide is crushed to obtain oils and fats for human nutrition or industrial purposes, and to obtain cakes and meals that are used as feed ingredients. Therefore, rather than referring to oilseeds, the analysis of the market situation is mainly undertaken in terms of oils/fats and cakes/meals. Production data for oils and meals are derived from domestic production of the relevant oilseeds in a specific year, i.e. they do not reflect the outcome of actual oilseed crushing in a given country and period. Regarding oilseed trade, situations where oilseeds are produced in one country but crushed in another are reflected in national oil/meal consumption figures. It is important to note that data on trade in oils (meals) refer to the sum of trade in oils (meals) plus the oil (meal) equivalent of oilseeds traded. Similarly, stock figures for oils (meals) refer to the sum of oil (meal) stocks plus the oil (meal) equivalent of oilseed inventories.
120
170
220
270
320
20182017201620152014201320122011
Meals/cakes
Vegetable oils
Oilseeds
2 For details on prices and corresponding indices, see Statistical appendix table 24
PRICES 2
Prices of oilseeds, oils and meals moving in opposite directions
Reversing the trend observed during the 2016/17
(October/September) season, the first half of 2017/18
had seen an increase in international oilseed and oilmeal
prices and a softening in vegetable oil values – as reflected
by FAO’s price indices trailing the oilseed complex. As the
2017/18 season unfolded, the prospect of a sharp drop in
Argentina’s soybean production marred the global outlook
for oilseeds and meals. This setback in one of the world’s
key suppliers of soybean products – which coincided with
limited availabilities both from other origins and of other
protein meals – triggered a gradual upward movement in
world oilseed and oilmeal prices. By April 2018, FAO’s price
indices for oilseeds and oilmeals had climbed, respectively,
to 22-month and 40-month highs.
Vegetable oil prices, on the other hand, have
declined since late 2017, in response to prospects
of increased global production in 2017/18. The key
market developments pressuring prices were: i) steady
improvements in Southeast Asia’s palm oil output,
which – combined with sluggish global import demand
– foreshadowed ample inventory levels in Malaysia and
FOOD OUTLOOK JULY 2018
OILC
RO
PS, O
ILS AN
D M
EA
LS
Figure 5. CBOT soybean futures for SeptemberFigure 2. FAO monthly price index for oilseeds (2002-2004=100)
140
150
160
170
2017/18
2015/16
2016/17
SAJJMAMFJDNO
Figure 4. FAO monthly price index for vegetable oils (2002-2004=100)
130
150
170
190
2017/18
2016/17
2015/16
SAJJMAMFJDNO
Indonesia; and ii) higher than anticipated soybean crushing
in the Americas and elsewhere, which resulted in large
soyoil availabilities. Against this backdrop, FAO’s price index
for vegetable oils gradually declined, approaching a two-
and-a-half year low in June 2018.
From March 2018 onwards, a dispute between the
United States and China concerning their overall trade
balance resulted in considerable market instability. The mere
possibility that China could impose retaliatory tariffs on
imports of US soybeans started exerting strong downward
pressure on international soybean and meal prices – given
that China is by far the world’s largest soybean buyer, while
the United States ranks first among soybean producers
and is China’s second biggest supplier. When, in mid-
June, China confirmed the tariff measure, the world’s key
soybean spot and futures prices plunged, respectively, to
12-month and multi-year lows, with strong spillover effects
across the oilcrops complex.
OILSEEDS
Global oilseed production to contract slightly in 2017/18Global oilseed output is estimated at 584 million tonnes in
2017/18, marginally below the 2016/17 record level. While
global harvest area increased further, adverse weather
conditions affected yields in a number of countries. Year-
on-year contractions are anticipated for soybeans and, less
markedly, sunflower seed, while all other oilcrops would see
production gains.
Global soybean production is pegged at 338 million
tonnes, 4 percent down year-on-year, but still the second
highest output on record thanks to bumper harvests in
the United States and Brazil. In the Northern hemisphere,
Figure 3. FAO monthly price index for oilmeals/cakes (2002-2004=100)
140
170
200
230
2015/16
2017/18
2016/17
SAJJMAMFJDNO
300
326
352
378
404
430
USD per tonne
S O N D J F M A M
2017/18 values2015/16 values 2016/17 values
J
Ma
rke
t a
sse
ssm
en
ts
FOOD OUTLOOKJULY 2018
Note: The split years bring together northern hemisphere annual crops harvested in the latter part of the first year shown, with southern hemisphere annual crops harvested in the early part of the second year shown. For tree crops, which areproduced throughout the year, calendar year production for the second year shown is used.
2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 f’cast
Change 2017/18
over 2016/17
million tonnes %
Soybeans 316.3 350.5 337.9 -3.6
Rapeseed 70.2 71.5 75.6 5.8
Cottonseed 37.6 39.8 43.4 9.0
Groundnuts (unshelled) 39.0 41.9 43.2 3.0
Sunflower seed 43.6 50.1 49.7 -0.8
Palm kernels 14.5 16.2 17.2 5.9
Copra 5.1 5.2 5.7 9.1
Total 526.3 575.2 572.6 -0.4
Table 1. World production of major oilcrops
production expanded in all major producing countries
except India and Ukraine, where output declined on lower
yield levels. In the United States, the world’s leading soy
producer, as well as in China and Canada, production
expanded further as expectations of attractive returns led
to higher plantings and because crops benefited from
normal or better than average weather conditions. By
contrast, in the Southern hemisphere, aggregate soybean
output is estimated to register a 9-percent setback, as
severe weather-related losses in Argentina, Paraguay
and Uruguay outweigh further production gains in Brazil. In Argentina, the third largest soybean producer and top
supplier of soymeal and soyoil in the world, the crop was
first affected by protracted dry and hot weather and then,
during harvest, losses were exacerbated by heavy rainfall.
Accordingly, the country’s average yield and soybean output
tumbled, respectively, to 6 and 9-year lows. In Brazil, on the
other hand, increases in area sown and near ideal growing
conditions elevated output to unprecedented levels.
Reversing the last three seasons’ downward trend,
world rapeseed production is estimated at a record
75.6 million tonnes. The year-on-year rise stems primarily
from robust gains in area planted. The world’s two
leading producers, the EU and Canada, reported record
crops due, respectively, to favourable weather conditions
and record high sowings prompted by attractive relative
prices. By contrast, production setbacks stemming from
lower plantings have been recorded in China and India,
while Australia’s crop suffered from unfavourable
weather conditions. Among smaller producers, significant
output gains were observed in Ukraine and the
Russian Federation, on account of both higher acreage
and beneficial weather.
Underpinned by yield improvements, global
groundnut and copra production posted new records,
while cottonseed output rose mostly as a result of larger
plantings, and palm kernel production grew amid both
area increases and higher yields. In the case of groundnut,
output growth was concentrated in China and the
United States, while cottonseed, copra and palm kernel
production picked up across key producers.
Global sunflower seed output is estimated to trail
behind last season’s all-time high. While in the EU and
Turkey crops benefited from good growing conditions,
poor weather affected output in the CIS region.
Note: Refer to footnote 1 on page 32 for overall definitions and methodology.1 Includes oils and fats of vegetable, animal and marine origin.2 Production plus opening stocks.3 Residual of the balance.4 Trade data refer to exports based on a common October/September
marketing season.5 Major exporters include Argentina, Brazil, Canada, Indonesia, Malaysia,
Ukraine and the United States.6 All meal figures are expressed in protein equivalent; meals include all meals
and cakes derived from oilcrops as well as meals of marine and animal origin.7 Major exporters include Argentina, Brazil, Canada, India, Indonesia, Malaysia,
Paraguay, the Russian Federation, Ukraine, Uruguay and the United States.
Table 2. World oilcrops and product market ata glance
2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 f’cast
Change: 2017/18
over 2016/17
million tonnes %
TOTAL OILCROPS
Production 538.0 586.8 584.3 -0.4
OILS AND FATS 1
Production 207.3 226.0 231.5 2.4
Supply 2 246.2 260.4 267.7 2.8
Utilization 3 213.3 222.7 228.8 2.7
Trade 4 115.4 123.9 124.9 0.8
Global stocks-to-use ratio (%) 16.2 16.2 16.6
Major exporters stocks-to-disappearance ratio (%) 5 10.0 10.7 11.3
MEALS AND CAKES 6
Production 138.5 152.3 150.6 -1.1
Supply 2 164.6 177.3 179.2 1.0
Utilization 3 138.9 145.3 151.2 4.0
Trade 4 90.4 96.2 98.4 2.2
Global stocks-to-use ratio (%) 18.0 19.0 17.0
Major exporters stocks-to-disappearance ratio (%) 7 11.1 12.0 10.8
FAO PRICE INDICES (Oct-Sept) (2002-2004=100)
2015/16 2016/17 2017/18(Oct-Jun)
Change: Oct-Jun 2017/18
overOct-Jun 2016/17
%
Oilseeds 151 154 156 1.3
Oilmeals/cakes 168 160 184 15.1
Vegetable oils 155 171 159 -6.6
FOOD OUTLOOK JULY 2018
OILC
RO
PS, O
ILS AN
D M
EA
LS
OILS AND FATS 3
Global oils/fats production to expand further in 2017/18 The above crop output estimates are expected to translate
into a further expansion in total oils/fats production
to 231.5 million tonnes. With regard to individual oils,
conspicuous growth in palm and rapeseed oil, and, to a
lesser extent, olive, palm kernel, cottonseed, copra and
groundnut oils, are poised to outweigh a drop in global
soyoil output. The expansion in palm oil will be led by
Indonesia, the world’s leading producer, followed, at some
distance, by Malaysia. Compared with last year, both
countries face a slowdown in growth, mainly reflecting
slower expansion in mature area due to ongoing replanting
efforts and lower yields as palms take a rest after last year’s
exceptionally high productivity levels. As for rapeseed oil,
production growth will be concentrated in Canada and the
EU, while the contraction in soyoil is confined to Argentina.
Global oils/fats supplies, which comprise 2017/18
production and 2016/17 ending stocks, are forecast to
grow by about 3 percent year-on-year. In Brazil, Canada,
the EU, Indonesia, Malaysia and the United States,
domestic availability is expected to climb to record or near
record levels, mostly resting on record harvests. Conversely,
a sizeable contraction is anticipated in Argentina, where
domestic availabilities are forecast to drop to a 5-year low
due to this year’s poor soy crop. In China, supply could
edge down compared with recent years, mainly reflecting a
further drop in carry-in stocks. Regarding soyoil, record large
global opening stocks are likely to prevent a year-on-year
contraction in supplies.
Growth in oils/fats consumption could slow in 2017/18Growth in total consumption of oils/fats is poised to trail
behind last season’s rate because of slower economic growth
among both developing and developed economies, and
despite the recent softening in vegetable oil prices. With
regard to individual oils, soy and palm oil – and, to a lesser
extent, rape and sunflower oil – are set to drive consumption
growth, aided by relatively ample supplies and competitive
prices.
As a group, developing nations in Asia would continue
driving the expansion in global oils/fats uptake, although
consumption growth could slow in some countries, notably
China and India, while accelerating in others, especially
Indonesia. Elsewhere, sizeable year-on-year gains are
anticipated in Brazil and the United States, whereas an
only marginal increase is envisaged in the EU.
While population and income growth remain the
main drivers of demand for food and other traditional
uses, especially in Asia, higher demand from the biodiesel
sector also plays a role. Compared with last year, growth
in biodiesel production, and hence uptake of vegetable
oils as feedstock, is estimated to accelerate in 2018, on
account of both national biofuel policies and discretionary
blending. National consumption targets and mandatory
blending rates have been raised in a number of countries,
including Brazil, Colombia, selected EU member states,
the Republic of Korea and the United States, while
biodiesel use has been made mandatory for the first time
in Turkey and the United Arab Emirates. In addition,
given the recent firmness of mineral oil prices relative to
vegetable oils, discretionary blending is expected to re-
emerge for the first time since 2014, notably in China and
possibly also in some African countries. In Indonesia, the
improved price competitiveness of oils/fats has reduced the
cost of subsidizing biodiesel production, which should allow
a higher fulfilment of the country’s consumption targets.
Regarding individual oils/fats, palm, soy and recycled cooking
oils would benefit the most from increased global demand
from biodiesel manufacturers. Rapeseed oil uptake, by
contrast, could stagnate, especially in the EU, where local
producers are confronted with a rebound in biodiesel imports
(following the removal of import barriers).
Global inventories of oils/fats to rise further Similar to last season – when an excess of global oils/fats
production relative to demand led to a replenishment of
3 This section refers to oils from all origins, which – in addition to products derived from the oilcrops discussed under the section on oilseeds – includes palm oil, marine oils and animal fats.
Figure 6. Global production and utilizationof oils/fats
-6
-3
0
3
6
195
205
215
225
235
2017/182016/172015/162014/152013/14
million tonnes million tonnes
f’cast
Balance (production minus utilization, right axis)
Production (left axis) Utilization (left axis)
Ma
rke
t a
sse
ssm
en
ts
FOOD OUTLOOKJULY 2018
stocks – in 2017/18 a production surplus should allow
global inventories to rise further. Year-on-year, ending
stocks (including the oil contained in stored oilseeds) are
forecast to rise by about 5 percent to 38 million tonnes,
the second highest level on record. Commodity-wise, palm
and rapeseed oil reserves could climb to record levels, tied
to fresh production gains and, in the case of rapeseed
oil, also subdued consumption growth. Conversely, soyoil
inventories are expected to retreat from last season’s peak,
mirroring this season’s crop outturns.
Among main stockholding countries, sizeable
replenishments are expected in Canada, the EU,
Indonesia and the United States, due to good harvests
and, in the case of the US, also as a result of lower
exports. By contrast, Argentina is expected to release
roughly half of its stocks to compensate for this year’s
decimated soy harvest. Poor crops could also trigger
drawdowns in India. In Brazil, reserves could decline
despite production gains, as exports are anticipated to
expand strongly.
The above forecasts would permit a modest
improvement in the global stocks-to-use ratio for oils/
fats in 2017/18, while the stocks-to-disappearance ratio
for the major exporting countries4 would increase more
markedly, reaching a multi-year high.
Global oils/fats trade to increase only marginallyUnlike last season, when a rebound in palm oil
shipments propelled trade upward, global trade in oils/
fats – including the oil contained in traded oilseeds – is
forecast to expand by just 1 percent in 2017/18. Backed
by production gains, much of the anticipated rise in
global transactions would be on account of record high
sales of palm oil, the leading traded oil. Trade in soy and
rapeseed oils, respectively the second and third most
traded oils, would remain at around last season’s level.
In the case of soy oil, maintaining stability in the level of
shipments would require the release of stocks in exporting
countries. For sunflower oil, a retreat from last season’s
peak is considered likely. Aided by its more competitive
price, palm oil could regain market share lost to other oils
(especially soyoil) in the past two years.
On the import side, purchases by developing countries
in Asia are seen growing slower than last season, notably
in China and India, due to large domestic supplies
and slower consumption growth. In the case of India,
successive hikes in the country’s import tariffs have also
affected imports. Purchases by countries in Africa are
poised to remain unchanged. Elsewhere, a contraction
in imports is expected in the EU, where ample domestic
availabilities coincide with weak demand growth,
while purchases could grow in the United States and
Argentina, both net exporters of oils/fats.
Regarding exports, higher sales by Malaysia and
Brazil are expected to make up for contractions
elsewhere. Malaysia would account for much of the
anticipated expansion in palm oil shipments, given that
in Indonesia a higher portion of production will likely be
absorbed domestically, including for biodiesel production.
Regarding soyoil, much of the anticipated sharp drop
in shipments from Argentina and Uruguay would be made up for by Brazil, this season’s most competitive
4 Argentina, Brazil, Canada, Indonesia, Malaysia, Ukraine and the United States.
Figure 8. Oils/fats imports by region or major country (including the oil contained in seed imports)
0
10
20
30
40
50
2017/182015/162013/142011/122009/10
Latin America & Caribbean Asia excl. China (total) Europe
China (total)
million tonnes
United States & Canada Africa
f’cast
Figure 7. World stocks and ratios of oils/fats (including the oil contained in seeds stored)
0
10
20
30
40
2017/182015/162013/142011/122009/108
11
14
17
20
million tonnes percent
Major Exporters Rest of the World
World Stocks-to-use ratio (right axis)
Stocks-to-disappearance ratio of Major Exporters(right axis)
f’cast
FOOD OUTLOOK JULY 2018
OILC
RO
PS, O
ILS AN
D M
EA
LS
supplier. Indeed, in 2017/18, Brazil could replace the
United States as the world’s third largest supplier, as US
exports are forecast to retreat from last year’s strongest
ever level. Slight contractions in sales are also expected in
Ukraine and Australia.
MEALS AND CAKES 5
Global supplies up in 2017/18, aided by large opening stocksBased on current crop forecasts, 2017/18 meal production
is pegged at 150.6 million tonnes (expressed in protein
equivalent), which, although below last season’s level,
would still be the second highest on record. Gains foreseen
in rapeseed meal and, to a lesser extent, cottonseed and
groundnut meals, would not be sufficient to offset a
likely steep drop in soymeal output, concerning mainly
Argentina.
Notwithstanding the anticipated contraction in global
production, world oilmeal supplies could post a 1 percent
increase, owing to large carry-in stocks. While Argentina’s
year-on-year decline also stands out in terms of supplies,
sizeable improvements are expected elsewhere, notably
in Brazil, the United States, China, Canada and the
EU. In Brazil and the United States, the concurrence of
exceptionally large opening stocks and bumper crops is
set to drive supplies to unprecedented levels. Together, the
two countries are poised to hold half of the world’s meal
supplies.
5 This section refers to meals from all origins. In addition to products derived from the oilcrops discussed under the section on oilseeds, fish meal and meals of animal origin are included.
Figure 9. Oils/fats exports by major exporters (including the oil contained in seed exports)
0
10
20
30
2016/17
2017/18 f’cast
million tonnes
USAIndonesiaCanada MalaysiaArgentina Brazil
Figure 10. Global production and utilization of meals/cakes (in protein equivalent)
-5
0
5
10
115
130
145
160
2017/182016/172015/162014/152013/14
million tonnes million tonnes
f’cast
Balance (production minus utilization, right axis)
Production (left axis) Utilization (left axis)
World meal consumption to rise further in 2017/18While global meal consumption is heading towards a fresh
record in 2017/18, firming prices could limit the year-on-
year growth compared with last year. Mirroring supplies,
soymeal is bound to account for just two-thirds of the
prospective utilization growth (compared with three-quarters
last season), while the use of other meals would pick up, in
particular that of rape and sunflower seed meals.
In many countries, oilmeal uptake continues to be
supported by expanding demand from the livestock and
aquaculture sectors. Developing countries in Asia – led by
China, by far the world’s leading consumer – remain the
main engine of growth. However, in China, growth could
slow down compared to last season due to the country’s
less dynamic hog industry, which is faced with falling profits
after pig meat production outpaced domestic demand. In
the EU and United States, the world’s second and third
largest consumers, meal uptake could regain momentum.
In the case of the United States, below average soymeal
protein content could contribute to demand growth. In
Brazil and Canada, burgeoning domestic supplies are
expected to boost domestic meal uptake.
Global meal inventories (including the meal contained in seed stocks) could fall from last season’s peakContrary to last season, global meal consumption in 2017/18
is forecast to outstrip production. If confirmed, the expected
imbalance should lead to a drawdown in the end-of-season
inventories. In particular, reserves of the world’s leading protein
meal – soymeal – are prone to fall. Modest replenishments in
Ma
rke
t a
sse
ssm
en
ts
FOOD OUTLOOKJULY 2018
other meals, notably rapeseed meal, will not be sufficient to
alter the picture. The most pronounced disposal is forecast
to occur in Argentina, where 7.5 million tonnes (expressed
in product weight) could be released to cover for the sharp
fall in domestic supplies. Stock drawdowns are also likely in
Brazil (despite the anticipated rise in domestic availabilities)
to support increases in domestic demand and overseas
shipments. By contrast, in the United States, where exports
could suffer a setback, domestic supply gains could ramp up
stocks by another 60 percent, lifting the country’s carry-out
stocks to an 11-year high. In China, the country holding
the highest reserves, stock levels would remain close to the
average of recent years.
Based on the above forecasts, both the global stocks-
to-use ratio and the stocks-to-disappearance ratio for the
major exporters6 would drop from last season’s high level.
Growth in global meal transactions to slow International trade in meals/cakes (including the meal
contained in traded oilseeds) could grow at a below
average pace in 2017/18. While trade in soybean meal
would continue to drive growth, the anticipated stagnation
in soymeal supplies could limit this year’s expansion in
total meal trade to 1.8 percent, well below the recent
three-year average. The steady appreciation in soymeal
prices observed during the first half of the season would
contribute to the slowdown. Trade in all other meals would
advance marginally, except for sunflower meal shipments,
which may contract.
With regard to imports, while Asia would continue to
dominate demand, in 2017/2018, the region’s aggregate
purchases are anticipated to expand less than last year,
Figure 12. Meal/cake imports by region or major country (in protein equivalent and including the meal contained in seed imports)
0
7
14
21
28
35
2017/182014/152012/132010/112008/09
Latin America & Caribbean Asia excl. China (total) Europe
China (total)
million tonnes
United States & Canada Africa
f’cast
Figure 13. Meal/cake exports by major exporters (in protein equivalent and including the meal contained in seed exports)
0
12
24
36
2016/17
2017/18 f’cast
million tonnes
USACanada India ParaguayArgentina Brazil
6 Argentina, Brazil, Canada, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Paraguay, the Russian Federation, Ukraine, the United States and Uruguay.
Figure 11. World stocks and ratios of meals/cakes (in protein equivalent and including the meal contained in seeds stored)
0
10
20
30
2017/182015/162013/142011/122009/105
10
15
20million tonnes percent
Major Exporters Rest of the Worldf’cast
World Stocks-to-use ratio (right axis)
Stocks-to-disappearance ratio of Major Exporters(right axis)
amid below average growth in China (tied to weaker
growth in feed demand and low processing margins) and
lacklustre demand elsewhere (reflecting flat meal uptake
by domestic feed producers). In the world’s second largest
buyer, the EU, purchases are forecast to rise, as supply
improvements may be insufficient to cover the expected
growth in consumption. In Argentina, one of the world’s
leading exporters, crushers resorted to importing soybeans
in a bid to make up for the tight domestic supplies and
maintain soymeal exports.
FOOD OUTLOOK JULY 2018
OILC
RO
PS, O
ILS AN
D M
EA
LS
On the export side, 2017/18 is likely to see some
changes in global trade patterns, with corresponding shifts
in market shares. Argentina could experience a marked
drop in exports, possibly recording a 9-year low. Also in
Uruguay, Ukraine and Australia, sales may contract
on poor crop outturns. In the United States, deliveries
could fall, despite this season’s bumper production and
large opening stocks. The main beneficiary would be
Brazil, whose exports are forecast to expand by another
17 percent, consolidating the country’s position as the
world’s top supplier – ahead of the United States. Aided
by the pronounced devaluation of the Real (which made
the country’s exports more competitive), Brazil’s share in
the global market (including the meal contained in seed
sales) could climb to 34 percent. Exports by India, formerly
an important supplier within Asia, are expected to remain
at around last year’s subdued level, whereas China (a
net importer of meals) could strengthen its position as a
regional supplier.
2018/19 PRODUCTION OUTLOOK
With the 2017/18 season still ongoing, it is very early
to make supply and demand projections for 2018/19.
While preparations for the next crop have started in some
Northern hemisphere countries, only limited information
is available about planting intentions or planting progress,
whereas in the Southern hemisphere, sowings will only
start in the last quarter of this year. While farmers’ planting
decisions will be influenced by price relations between
oilseeds and competing arable crops as well as policy
changes and exchange rate movements, productivity will
hinge on weather conditions.
Regarding individual crops, a possible rebound in
global soybean and sunflower seed production, along with
further growth in Southeast Asia’s palm oil output, could
more than compensate for likely losses in global rapeseed
production. Cottonseed, groundnut and copra production
are forecast to remain about unchanged. World soybean
production could grow by about 6 percent, mainly on
expectations of area gains and yield recoveries in some
key producing countries, notably Argentina, Paraguay,
Uruguay and India. Also, China’s soybean output could
expand, tied to fresh support payments. By contrast, in
the world’s two leading producers, the United States and
Brazil, production expansion could come to a halt. The
United States’ crop could nearly match last season’s
record, assuming a slight drop in area harvested and
an above-average 3.3 tonnes per ha yield level. Brazil’s production could remain unchanged, as yields are assumed
to revert to average levels, while sowings may rise further.
World rapeseed production is seen dropping from the all-
time record achieved in 2017/18, as anticipated production
increases in China, India, the United States and CIS
countries could be outweighed by possible contractions
in the EU, Canada and Australia. By contrast, global
sunflower seed production could see a rebound, with likely
improvements in Ukraine, the Russian Federation and
Argentina more than offsetting possible drops in the EU
and Turkey.
Based on the above highly tentative forecasts, global
oilcrop production would total 605 million tonnes, up
almost 4 percent from 2017/18, and marking a new record.
The crop forecasts would translate into record outputs of
both oils and meals. Assuming a continuation of current
consumption trends, the anticipated supply levels would
be adequate to satisfy projected demand in both markets.
The expected match of supply and demand provides limited
scope for change in global inventory levels. Accordingly,
during the coming months, international prices for oilseed,
oils and meals could remain close to their current level
– barring unexpected developments. Considering that
plantings of 2018/19 crops have only just started, growing
conditions in key growing regions will have to be monitored
closely. As for policy developments, there is considerable
uncertainty about how the reciprocal tariff measures
recently announced by the United States and China will
affect the global markets of oilseeds and derived products.
FOOD OUTLOOKJULY 2018
Oilcro
ps
OIL
CRO
PS:
MA
JOR
POLI
CY D
EVEL
OPM
ENTS
MID
-OCT
OBE
R 20
17 T
O M
ID-J
UN
E 20
18 *
CO
UN
TRY
DA
TEPR
OD
CU
TPO
LIC
Y
CA
TEG
ORY
/IN
STR
UM
ENT
DES
CR
IPTI
ON
Arg
enti
na
No
v-17
Gra
ins,
oils
eed
sEx
po
rt
pro
mo
tio
nO
rder
ed a
30
per
cen
t cu
t in
do
ckin
g f
ees
(wh
ich
rep
rese
nt
abo
ut
30 p
erce
nt
of
tota
l po
rt e
xpen
ses
incu
rred
by
exp
ort
ers)
in t
he
cou
ntr
y's
mai
n g
rain
s/o
ilsee
d e
xpo
rt p
ort
.
No
v-17
Soyb
ean
sG
MO
po
licy
Ap
pro
ved
th
e cu
ltiv
atio
n o
f a
gen
etic
ally
mo
difi
ed (
GM
) so
ybea
n v
arie
ty r
esis
tan
t to
her
bic
ides
oth
er t
han
gly
ph
osa
te.
Dec
-17
Bio
die
sel
Bio
fuel
po
licy
Incr
ease
d t
he
cou
ntr
y's
vari
able
exp
ort
tax
on
bio
die
sel f
rom
0 t
o 8
per
cen
t, e
ffec
tive
1 J
anu
ary
2018
.
Jan
-18
Soyb
ean
s, s
oym
eal,
soyo
ilEx
po
rt p
olic
yLo
wer
ed e
xpo
rt t
axes
on
so
ybea
n, s
oym
eal a
nd
so
yoil
by
0.5
per
cen
tag
e p
oin
ts, p
lan
nin
g t
o c
on
tin
ue
wit
h t
he
sam
e h
alf-
po
int-
per
-mo
nth
red
uct
ion
fo
r th
e n
ext
two
yea
rs.
Ap
r-18
Soyb
ean
s, s
oyb
ean
p
rod
uct
sEx
po
rt p
olic
yC
han
ged
th
e ti
me
of
exp
ort
tax
co
llect
ion
fro
m t
he
day
a p
urc
has
e co
ntr
act
is s
ign
ed t
o t
he
day
of
ship
men
t, t
hu
s al
low
ing
exp
ort
ers
to b
enefi
t fr
om
mo
nth
ly t
ax c
uts
an
d e
nco
ura
gin
g f
orw
ard
sal
es.
May
-18
Bio
die
sel
Bio
fuel
po
licy
Rai
sed
, eff
ecti
ve 1
Ju
ly 2
018,
th
e ex
po
rt t
ax o
n (
soyb
ean
oil-
bas
ed)
bio
die
sel f
rom
8 p
erce
nt
to 1
5 p
erce
nt,
wit
h a
vie
w t
o
bri
ng
ing
th
e ta
x cl
ose
r to
th
e ra
te c
har
ged
on
exp
ort
s o
f so
ybea
n o
il (w
hic
h, i
n M
ay 2
018,
sto
od
at
24.5
per
cen
t).
May
-18
Soyb
ean
sG
MO
po
licy
Ap
pro
ved
th
e cu
ltiv
atio
n o
f a
GM
so
ybea
n v
arie
ty r
esis
tan
t to
her
bic
ides
co
nta
inin
g g
lyp
ho
sate
, glu
fosa
te a
nd
is
oxa
flu
tole
.
Au
stra
lia/P
eru
No
v-17
Rap
esee
dB
ilate
ral t
rad
e ag
reem
ent
Ag
reed
on
du
ty-f
ree
entr
y o
f A
ust
ralia
n r
apes
eed
into
Per
u.
Bra
zil
No
v-17
Fun
gic
ide
Pest
icid
e re
gu
lati
on
Gra
nte
d r
egu
lato
ry a
pp
rova
l fo
r a
fun
gic
ide
dev
elo
ped
pri
mar
ily t
o c
om
bat
Asi
an s
oy
rust
.
No
v-17
Gra
ins,
oils
eed
sTr
ansp
ort
in
fras
tru
ctu
reIn
vite
d b
ids
for
the
con
stru
ctio
n a
nd
op
erat
ion
of
new
ro
ads
(3 1
25 k
m b
y th
e en
d o
f 20
18),
wit
h a
vie
w t
o a
dd
ress
ing
h
isto
rica
l in
fras
tru
ctu
re b
ott
len
ecks
.
Dec
-17
Bio
fuel
sB
iofu
el p
olic
yPa
ssed
‘Ren
ova
Bio
’, a
pac
kag
e o
f in
cen
tive
s an
d r
egu
lato
ry m
easu
res
con
cern
ing
ren
ewab
le f
uel
s ai
med
at
i) s
tim
ula
tin
g
do
mes
tic
bio
fuel
pro
du
ctio
n a
nd
co
nsu
mp
tio
n; i
i) a
ttra
ctin
g in
vest
men
ts; a
nd
iii)
fo
ster
ing
co
mp
etit
ion
wit
hin
th
e se
cto
r.
Dec
-17
Gra
ins,
oils
eed
sTr
ansp
ort
in
fras
tru
ctu
reIn
vite
d b
ids
for
the
‘Fer
rog
rão
’ gra
in r
ailr
oad
pro
ject
lin
kin
g M
ato
Gro
sso
sta
te w
ith
tra
nss
hip
men
t p
ort
s in
th
e A
maz
on
b
asin
, off
erin
g p
rosp
ecti
ve c
on
trac
tors
a 6
5-ye
ar o
per
atin
g li
cen
ce.
Mar
-18
Bio
die
sel
Bio
fuel
po
licy
Rai
sed
th
e n
atio
nw
ide
man
dat
ory
ble
nd
ing
rat
e fo
r b
iod
iese
l fro
m 8
per
cen
t to
10
per
cen
t, a
sh
ift
exp
ecte
d t
o r
aise
B
razi
l’s a
nn
ual
bio
die
sel c
on
sum
pti
on
by
alm
ost
30
per
cen
t. A
lso
co
nfi
rmed
pla
ns
to in
crea
se t
he
cou
ntr
y’s
man
dat
ory
b
len
din
g r
ate
furt
her
in t
he
com
ing
yea
rs.
Mar
-18
Oilc
rop
s, o
ther
ag
ric.
p
rod
uct
s
Sect
or
dev
elo
pm
ent
mea
sure
An
no
un
ced
fre
sh f
un
din
g f
or
its
Ru
ral I
nsu
ran
ce P
rem
ium
Su
bsi
diz
atio
n P
rog
ram
me
and
lau
nch
ed a
n o
nlin
e p
ort
al,
‘Mac
rolo
gís
tica
’, d
esig
ned
to
fac
ilita
te a
gri
bu
sin
ess.
Mar
-18
Soyb
ean
s, m
aize
Tran
spo
rt
infr
astr
uct
ure
Pub
lish
ed d
ata
on
th
e vo
lum
e o
f so
ybea
ns
and
mai
ze s
hip
ped
th
rou
gh
th
e co
un
try’
s n
ort
her
n e
xpo
rt c
orr
ido
rs, s
ho
win
g
a ye
ar-o
n-y
ear
incr
ease
of
80 p
erce
nt
(or
51.2
mill
ion
to
nn
es)
for
2017
.
May
-18
Soyb
ean
sG
MO
po
licy
Ap
pro
ved
th
ree
new
GM
so
ybea
n v
arie
ties
, wit
h f
ull
com
mer
cial
lau
nch
exp
ecte
d in
ab
ou
t 2
year
s.
Jun
-18
All
cro
ps,
live
sto
ckA
gri
cult
ura
l p
olic
y
Pres
ente
d t
he
agri
cult
ura
l su
pp
ort
pro
gra
mm
e fo
r 20
18/1
9, w
hic
h e
nvi
sag
es a
n in
crea
se in
ou
tlay
s fo
r: i
) fa
rm lo
ans
(in
clu
din
g a
red
uct
ion
in c
on
cess
ion
al in
tere
st r
ates
an
d in
crea
sed
att
enti
on
to
: in
vest
men
ts in
on
-far
m g
rain
sto
rag
e,
low
car
bo
n a
gri
cult
ure
, liv
esto
ck/a
qu
acu
ltu
re);
ii)
mar
keti
ng
su
pp
ort
pro
gra
mm
es; a
nd
iii)
cro
p in
sura
nce
sch
emes
.
Can
ada
Dec
-17
Bio
fuel
sB
iofu
el p
olic
yPu
blis
hed
a r
egu
lato
ry f
ram
ewo
rk o
utl
inin
g t
he
sco
pe
and
key
ele
men
ts o
f a
nat
ion
al s
tan
dar
d f
or
clea
n f
uel
s, w
ith
a
focu
s o
n r
edu
cin
g c
arb
on
inte
nsi
ty a
cro
ss t
hei
r lif
ecyc
le.
May
-18
Gra
ins,
oils
eed
sTr
ansp
ort
atio
n
po
licy
Ren
ewed
an
d e
xpan
ded
th
e co
un
try'
s tr
ansp
ort
atio
n la
w t
o e
nsu
re t
hat
Can
adia
n f
arm
ers
hav
e ti
mel
y ac
cess
to
rel
iab
le
rail
serv
ices
, wh
ile p
rese
rvin
g s
hip
pin
g r
ate
com
pet
itiv
enes
s an
d p
rovi
din
g s
uffi
cien
t ec
on
om
ic in
cen
tive
s fo
r ra
il co
mp
anie
s to
co
nti
nu
e in
vest
ing
in r
ail i
nfr
astr
uct
ure
.
Ma
jor
po
licy
de
velo
pm
en
ts
102 FOOD OUTLOOKJULY 2018
CO
UN
TRY
DA
TEPR
OD
CU
TPO
LIC
Y
CA
TEG
ORY
/IN
STR
UM
ENT
DES
CR
IPTI
ON
Ch
ina
(Mai
nla
nd
/U
krai
ne)
Sep
-17
Sun
flo
wer
mea
lTr
ade
arra
ng
emen
tSi
gn
ed a
pro
toco
l on
sto
rag
e, p
acka
gin
g, l
abel
ling
an
d q
uar
anti
ne
req
uir
emen
ts f
or
imp
ort
ing
Ukr
ain
ian
su
nfl
ow
er
mea
l to
Ch
ina.
Ch
ina
(Mai
nla
nd
)
No
v-17
Soyb
ean
s, m
aize
Ag
ricu
ltu
ral
po
licy
Ad
just
ed f
arm
er s
up
po
rt p
aym
ents
in H
eilo
ng
jian
g P
rovi
nce
, wit
h t
he
ob
ject
ive
of
curb
ing
mai
ze a
nd
en
cou
rag
ing
so
ybea
n p
rod
uct
ion
, wh
ile m
akin
g t
he
cou
ntr
y’s
gra
in r
eser
ve s
yste
m m
ore
flex
ible
. Als
o a
nn
ou
nce
d p
lan
s to
su
bsi
diz
e g
rain
tra
nsp
ort
atio
n a
nd
sto
rag
e fa
cilit
ies.
No
v-17
Soyb
ean
sPu
blic
st
ock
ho
ldin
gSu
spen
ded
pu
blic
au
ctio
ns
of
soyb
ean
s fr
om
sta
te r
eser
ves
as o
f 1
No
vem
ber
201
7, s
o a
s n
ot
to d
isru
pt
mar
keti
ng
of
the
new
201
7/18
cro
p.
No
v-17
Dri
ed d
isti
llers
gra
ins
Tax
po
licy
Rem
ove
d t
he
cou
ntr
y's
11 p
erce
nt
valu
e-ad
ded
tax
on
imp
ort
s o
f d
ried
dis
tille
rs g
rain
s w
ith
so
lub
les
(DD
GS)
.
Dec
-17
Gra
ins,
so
ybea
ns
Foo
d s
tan
dar
dR
elea
sed
a n
ew c
od
e o
f h
ygie
nic
pra
ctic
e fo
r th
e p
roce
ssin
g o
f g
rain
s, in
clu
din
g s
oyb
ean
s.
Dec
-17
Soyb
ean
sTr
ade
stan
dar
dLo
wer
ed t
he
leve
l of
imp
uri
ties
allo
wed
in U
S so
ybea
n c
arg
oes
am
id c
on
cern
s o
ver
the
pre
sen
ce o
f w
eed
see
ds
in p
ast
con
sig
nm
ents
.
Jan
-18
Rap
esee
d o
ilPu
blic
st
ock
ho
ldin
gEn
ded
pu
blic
au
ctio
ns
of
rap
esee
d o
il sa
les
fro
m s
tate
res
erve
s, w
ith
dw
ind
ling
vo
lum
es o
ffer
ed p
oin
tin
g t
o a
dry
ing
ou
t o
f g
ove
rnm
ent
sto
cks.
Mar
-18
Soy-
foo
ds,
so
y-b
ased
fe
ed
Sect
or
dev
elo
pm
ent
mea
sure
Intr
od
uce
d lo
caliz
ed d
irec
t su
pp
ort
pay
men
ts f
or
ind
ust
ries
pro
cess
ing
so
ybea
n in
to f
oo
d a
nd
fee
d p
rod
uct
s.
May
-18
Soyb
ean
sA
gri
cult
ura
l p
olic
yR
enew
ed a
rea-
bas
ed p
aym
ents
an
d o
ther
ince
nti
ves
for
farm
ers
pla
nti
ng
so
ybea
ns
as p
art
of
bro
ader
eff
ort
s to
cu
rb t
he
cou
ntr
y's
mai
ze p
rod
uct
ion
.
May
-18
Soyb
ean
s, m
aize
Ag
ricu
ltu
ral
po
licy
Co
nfi
rmed
th
at f
arm
er s
up
po
rt p
rog
ram
mes
in H
eilo
ng
jian
g, I
nn
er M
on
go
lia, J
ilin
an
d L
iao
nin
g –
aim
ed a
t en
cou
rag
ing
cr
op
ro
tati
on
in f
avo
ur
of
soyb
ean
s, la
nd
fal
low
an
d m
aize
sto
ck d
isp
osa
l – w
ou
ld r
emai
n in
pla
ce d
uri
ng
201
8/19
.
May
-18
Gro
un
dn
uts
, co
tto
nse
edFo
od
sta
nd
ard
&
saf
ety
Invi
ted
co
mm
ents
on
a d
raft
co
de
of
pra
ctic
e o
n t
he
pre
ven
tio
n a
nd
red
uct
ion
of
aflat
oxi
n c
on
tam
inat
ion
in f
oo
d.
May
-18
Oliv
e o
ilFo
od
sta
nd
ard
&
saf
ety
Rep
ort
ed a
new
cas
e o
f fr
aud
ule
nt
lab
ellin
g c
on
cern
ing
oliv
e o
il.
May
-18
Oils
eed
s, o
ilmea
ls,
edib
le o
ilsTa
x p
olic
yLo
wer
ed t
he
cou
ntr
y's
valu
e-ad
ded
tax
on
sal
es a
nd
imp
ort
s o
f ag
ricu
ltu
ral p
rod
uct
s –
incl
ud
ing
oils
eed
s, o
ilmea
ls a
nd
ed
ible
veg
etab
le o
ils –
fro
m 1
1 p
erce
nt
to 1
0 p
erce
nt.
Jun
-18
Soyb
ean
s, s
oyb
ean
oil
Pub
lic
sto
ckh
old
ing
Res
um
ed p
ub
lic a
uct
ion
s o
f so
ybea
ns
and
so
ybea
n o
il fr
om
sta
te r
eser
ves.
Jun
-18
Soyb
ean
sTr
ade
dis
pu
teA
nn
ou
nce
d –
in t
he
con
text
of
a b
road
tra
de
dis
pu
te –
th
e in
tro
du
ctio
n, o
n 6
Ju
ly 2
018,
of
an a
dd
itio
nal
25
per
cen
t ta
riff
on
sel
ecte
d g
oo
ds
imp
ort
ed f
rom
th
e U
nit
ed S
tate
s, in
clu
din
g b
lack
an
d y
ello
w s
oyb
ean
s, t
o r
ecip
roca
te d
uti
es t
he
US
is s
et t
o im
po
se, e
ffec
tive
th
e sa
me
dat
e, o
n im
po
rts
of
cert
ain
go
od
s fr
om
Ch
ina.
Jun
-18
Soyb
ean
s, s
oyb
ean
m
eal,
rap
esee
d,
fish
mea
l
Free
tra
de
agre
emen
t
An
no
un
ced
th
e re
mo
val,
as o
f 1
July
201
8, o
f ta
riff
s o
n s
oyb
ean
s, s
oyb
ean
mea
l, ra
pes
eed
an
d fi
shm
eal i
mp
ort
ed f
rom
B
ang
lad
esh
, In
dia
, th
e La
o P
eop
le’s
Dem
ocr
atic
Rep
ub
lic, t
he
Rep
ub
lic o
f K
ore
a an
d S
ri L
anka
. Th
e m
easu
re is
par
t o
f tr
ade
faci
litat
ion
inst
rum
ents
sch
edu
led
un
der
th
e A
sia-
Paci
fic
Trad
e A
gre
emen
t (A
PTA
).
Co
lom
bia
Mar
-18
Bio
die
sel
Bio
fuel
po
licy
Rai
sed
th
e m
and
ato
ry in
clu
sio
n r
ate
for
pal
m o
il-b
ased
die
sel i
nto
reg
ula
r tr
ansp
ort
die
sel t
o 1
0 p
erce
nt
nat
ion
wid
e.
Egyp
tM
ar-1
8O
live
oil,
oliv
esSe
cto
r d
evel
op
men
t m
easu
re
Sig
ned
th
e Si
xth
Inte
rnat
ion
al A
gre
emen
t o
n O
live
Oil
and
Tab
le O
lives
, th
ereb
y re
gai
nin
g f
ull
mem
ber
ship
in t
he
Inte
rnat
ion
al O
live
Co
un
cil a
nd
sec
uri
ng
acc
ess
to g
ran
ts in
su
pp
ort
of
do
mes
tic
oliv
e p
rod
uct
ion
.
FOOD OUTLOOKJULY 2018
Oilcro
ps
*A
col
lect
ion
of m
ajor
pol
icy
deve
lopm
ents
sta
rtin
g in
Jan
uary
201
1 is
ava
ilabl
e at
: ht
tp://
ww
w.f
ao.o
rg/e
cono
mic
/est
/est
-com
mod
ities
/com
mod
ity-p
olic
y-ar
chiv
e/en
/?gr
oupA
ND
com
mod
ity=
Oils
eeds
,%20
oils
%20
and%
20m
eals
CO
UN
TRY
DA
TEPR
OD
CU
TPO
LIC
Y
CA
TEG
ORY
/IN
STR
UM
ENT
DES
CR
IPTI
ON
Euro
pea
n U
nio
n
No
v-17
Gly
ph
osa
tePe
stic
ide
reg
ula
tio
nA
llow
ed c
on
tin
ued
use
of
the
con
tro
vers
ial h
erb
icid
e fo
r an
ab
bre
viat
ed p
erio
d o
f fi
ve y
ears
, so
as
no
t to
dis
rup
t tr
ade
in g
rain
s an
d o
ilsee
ds.
Dec
-17
Bio
die
sel
Bio
fuel
po
licy
Co
nfi
rmed
th
at r
apes
eed
gro
wn
in C
anad
a an
d A
ust
ralia
wo
uld
rem
ain
elig
ible
fo
r u
se in
th
e EU
mar
ket
as
envi
ron
men
tally
-fri
end
ly f
eed
sto
ck f
or
bio
die
sel.
Dec
-17
Oils
eed
sG
MO
po
licy
Au
tho
rize
d n
ew G
M c
rop
var
ieti
es f
or
foo
d a
nd
fee
d u
se, i
ncl
ud
ing
th
ree
soyb
ean
an
d t
wo
rap
esee
d v
arie
ties
.
Dec
-17
Xyl
ella
fas
tid
iosa
Pest
co
ntr
ol
Ag
reed
on
a r
oad
map
ou
tlin
ing
ste
ps
to c
om
bat
th
e b
acte
rial
dis
ease
th
at t
hre
aten
s o
live
tree
s an
d o
ther
pla
nts
acr
oss
th
e EU
.
Jan
-18
Bio
die
sel
Trad
e d
isp
ute
Was
no
tifi
ed b
y th
e W
orl
d T
rad
e O
rgan
izat
ion
’s (
WTO
) d
isp
ute
set
tlem
ent
bo
dy
that
th
e b
loc'
s an
ti-d
um
pin
g d
uti
es o
n
bio
die
sel i
mp
ort
s fr
om
Ind
on
esia
wer
e in
con
sist
ent
wit
h W
TO la
w.
Mar
-18
Bio
die
sel
Bio
fuel
po
licy
Saw
th
e Eu
rop
ean
Par
liam
ent
vote
fo
r a
refo
rm o
f th
e b
loc'
s R
enew
able
En
erg
y D
irec
tive
th
at w
ou
ld, i
nte
r al
ia: i
) fr
eeze
p
rod
uct
ion
of
cro
p-b
ased
bio
fuel
s at
201
7 le
vels
, wh
ile c
app
ing
th
eir
shar
e in
to
tal r
oad
/rai
l tra
nsp
ort
fu
els;
an
d ii
) p
has
e o
ut,
by
2021
, th
e u
se o
f b
iofu
els
that
bri
ng
ab
ou
t st
ron
g in
dir
ect
lan
d u
se c
han
ges
.
Mar
-18
Xyl
ella
fas
tid
iosa
Pest
co
ntr
ol
Pro
vid
ed a
n u
pd
ate
on
th
e d
isea
se's
sp
read
an
d r
equ
ired
all
mem
ber
sta
tes
to c
arry
ou
t an
nu
al s
urv
eys
for
the
pre
sen
ce
of
the
dis
ease
in t
hei
r te
rrit
ory
.
Mar
-18
Soyb
ean
sSe
cto
r d
evel
op
men
t m
easu
re
Lau
nch
ed a
n in
itia
tive
aim
ed a
t fo
rmu
lati
ng
an
EU
-wid
e st
rate
gy
for
the
pro
mo
tio
n o
f p
rote
in r
ich
cro
ps,
no
tab
ly
soyb
ean
.
Mar
-18
Bio
die
sel
Trad
e d
isp
ute
Lau
nch
ed a
new
inve
stig
atio
n c
on
cern
ing
bio
die
sel i
mp
ort
s fr
om
Arg
enti
na,
cit
ing
evi
den
ce t
hat
Arg
enti
ne
bio
die
sel
man
ufa
ctu
rers
ben
efit
fro
m s
tate
su
bsi
die
s th
at d
amag
e EU
pro
du
cers
.
May
-18
Oliv
e o
ilFo
od
sta
nd
ard
Invi
ted
pu
blic
co
mm
ents
on
tw
o p
rop
ose
d a
men
dm
ents
to
th
e b
loc’
s la
bel
ling
reg
ula
tio
ns
for
oliv
e o
il.
May
-18
Nic
oti
no
ids
Pest
icid
e re
gu
lati
on
Bac
ked
a p
rop
osa
l by
the
Euro
pea
n C
om
mis
sio
n t
o f
urt
her
res
tric
t th
e u
se o
f su
bst
ance
s kn
ow
n a
s n
ico
tin
oid
s, w
ith
str
ict
reg
ula
tio
ns
exp
ecte
d t
o c
om
e in
to f
orc
e b
y th
e en
d o
f 20
18.
May
-18
Bio
die
sel
Trad
e d
isp
ute
Rem
ove
d a
nti
-du
mp
ing
du
ties
on
bio
die
sel i
mp
ort
s fr
om
13
Arg
enti
ne
and
Ind
on
esia
n p
rod
uce
rs, a
bid
ing
by
a ru
ling
of
the
Euro
pea
n C
ou
rt o
f Ju
stic
e.
May
-18
Bio
die
sel
Trad
e d
isp
ute
Dec
ided
to
reg
iste
r, as
of
25 M
ay 2
018,
imp
ort
s o
f b
iod
iese
l fro
m A
rgen
tin
a in
th
e co
nte
xt o
f an
on
go
ing
tra
de
inve
stig
atio
n r
egar
din
g t
he
alle
ged
su
bsi
diz
atio
n o
f b
iod
iese
l pro
du
ctio
n in
Arg
enti
na.
Jun
-18
Bio
fuel
sB
ioen
erg
y p
olic
y
Rea
ched
a p
rovi
sio
nal
, in
form
al a
gre
emen
t re
gar
din
g t
he
blo
c's
ren
ewab
le e
ner
gy
po
licy
afte
r 20
20, c
om
pri
sin
g:
i)
bin
din
g o
vera
ll an
d t
ran
spo
rtat
ion
sp
ecifi
c ta
rget
s fo
r re
new
able
en
erg
y u
se;
ii) c
app
ing
th
e am
ou
nt
of
cro
p-b
ased
b
iofu
els
in t
ran
spo
rt t
o 2
020
leve
ls, w
ith
a m
axim
um
of
7 p
erce
nt;
iii)
fre
ezin
g t
he
use
of
bio
fuel
s th
at b
rin
g a
bo
ut
stro
ng
ind
irec
t la
nd
use
ch
ang
es a
t 20
19 le
vels
, wit
h a
man
dat
ory
ph
ase-
ou
t b
y 20
30; i
v) in
tro
du
cin
g b
ind
ing
tar
get
s fo
r ad
van
ced
bio
fuel
s; a
nd
(v)
man
dat
ing
th
e p
rese
nce
of
was
te-b
ased
bio
fuel
s.
Gh
ana/
Mal
aysi
aN
ov-
17O
il p
alm
Bila
tera
l co
op
erat
ion
Pled
ged
to
fo
ster
th
e ex
chan
ge
of
tech
nic
al a
nd
mar
keti
ng
exp
erti
se b
etw
een
th
e tw
o c
ou
ntr
ies’
pal
m o
il in
du
stri
es, i
n a
b
id t
o s
tren
gth
en G
han
a’s
pro
du
ctio
n a
nd
pro
cess
ing
cap
acit
ies.
Gre
ece
Dec
-17
Oliv
e o
ilFo
od
sta
nd
ard
Req
uir
ed it
s re
stau
ran
t an
d h
osp
ital
ity
sect
or
to s
erve
oliv
e o
il o
nly
in it
s o
rig
inal
pac
kag
ing
, wit
h t
he
aim
of
pro
mo
tin
g
qu
alit
y an
d p
rote
ctin
g c
on
sum
ers
fro
m f
rau
d.
Ma
jor
po
licy
de
velo
pm
en
ts
FOOD OUTLOOKJULY 2018
CO
UN
TRY
DA
TEPR
OD
CU
TPO
LIC
Y
CA
TEG
ORY
/IN
STR
UM
ENT
DES
CR
IPTI
ON
Ind
ia
No
v-17
Rab
i oilc
rop
sA
gri
cult
ura
l p
olic
yR
aise
d t
he
min
imu
m s
up
po
rt p
rice
s fo
r R
abi c
rop
s, w
ith
ou
t, h
ow
ever
, gu
aran
teei
ng
pro
cure
men
t b
y st
ate
agen
cies
at
the
esta
blis
hed
pri
ces.
No
v-17
Foo
d p
rod
uct
lab
els
Foo
d s
tan
dar
dPo
stp
on
ed t
he
com
plia
nce
dat
e fo
r m
and
ato
ry d
ecla
rati
on
of
tran
s-fa
t an
d s
atu
rate
d f
at c
on
ten
t o
n f
oo
d p
rod
uct
lab
els
un
til 3
1 D
ecem
ber
201
7.
No
v-17
Edib
le o
ils, s
oyb
ean
sIm
po
rt p
olic
yR
aise
d t
he
cou
ntr
y's
imp
ort
tar
iffs
fo
r ed
ible
oils
an
d s
oyb
ean
s, in
an
eff
ort
to
cu
rb e
dib
le o
il im
po
rts
and
lift
do
mes
tic
pri
ces
in s
up
po
rt o
f lo
cal f
arm
ers
and
refi
ner
s.
Dec
-17
Tori
aA
gri
cult
ura
l p
olic
yR
aise
d t
he
min
imu
m s
up
po
rt p
rice
fo
r ‘t
ori
a’, a
n o
ilsee
d v
arie
ty m
ain
ly g
row
n in
Raj
asth
an.
Dec
-17
Soym
eal
Exp
ort
p
rom
oti
on
Rai
sed
th
e co
un
try'
s ex
po
rt in
cen
tive
s fo
r so
ymea
l sh
ipm
ents
.
Feb
-18
Foo
d p
rod
uct
sIm
po
rt p
olic
yM
od
ified
th
e co
un
try'
s g
ener
al im
po
rt le
vies
, ad
din
g a
So
cial
Wel
fare
Su
rch
arg
e o
f 10
per
cen
t to
th
e b
asic
cu
sto
ms
du
ty;
the
surc
har
ge
also
ap
plie
s to
fo
od
an
d p
roce
ssed
fo
od
imp
ort
s.
Feb
-18
Sele
cted
veg
etab
le
oils
Imp
ort
po
licy
Rai
sed
th
e co
un
try'
s im
po
rt t
arif
f fo
r se
lect
ed (
cru
de
and
refi
ned
) ve
get
able
oils
fu
rth
er.
Mar
-18
Co
con
ut
Ag
ricu
ltu
ral
po
licy
Rai
sed
th
e m
inim
um
su
pp
ort
pri
ces
for
mill
ing
an
d b
all c
op
ra a
imin
g t
o i)
en
sure
rem
un
erat
ive
pri
ces
for
coco
nu
t fa
rmer
s; a
nd
ii)
enco
ura
ge
inve
stm
ent
in c
oco
nu
t cu
ltiv
atio
n.
Mar
-18
Edib
le o
ilsFo
od
sta
nd
ard
Ban
ned
28
bra
nd
s o
f ed
ible
oil
in K
eral
a St
ate,
bas
ed o
n p
rob
es s
ho
win
g a
du
lter
atio
n o
f co
con
ut
oil,
an
d e
arm
arke
d
fun
ds
for
syst
emat
ic a
nal
ysis
of
edib
le o
ils.
Mar
-18
Palm
oil
Imp
ort
po
licy
Incr
ease
d im
po
rt d
uti
es f
or
cru
de
and
refi
ned
pal
m o
il, in
a b
id t
o s
tim
ula
te lo
cal o
ilsee
d p
rod
uct
ion
an
d h
elp
cu
rb
edib
le o
il im
po
rts.
Mar
-18
Oils
eed
sPu
blic
p
rocu
rem
ent
Ap
pro
ved
, fo
r a
five
-yea
r p
erio
d, a
ris
e in
th
e vo
lum
e o
f o
ilsee
ds
(an
d p
uls
es)
that
sta
te g
ove
rnm
ents
can
pro
cure
un
der
th
e fe
der
al P
rice
Su
pp
ort
Sch
eme.
May
-18
Edib
le o
ilsEx
po
rt
pro
mo
tio
nLi
fted
th
e b
an o
n b
ulk
exp
ort
s o
f al
l ed
ible
veg
etab
le o
ils, w
ith
th
e ex
cep
tio
n o
f m
ust
ard
see
d o
il.
May
-18
Foo
d p
rod
uct
lab
els
Hea
lth
po
licy
Pro
po
sed
new
lab
ellin
g r
egu
lati
on
s fo
r p
rep
acka
ged
fo
od
s, w
hic
h e
nvi
sag
e m
and
ato
ry f
ron
t-o
f-p
acka
ge
dis
pla
y o
f n
utr
itio
nal
dat
a (i
ncl
ud
ing
on
to
tal f
at a
nd
tra
ns-
fat
con
ten
t) a
nd
rel
ated
die
tary
rec
om
men
dat
ion
s.
May
-18
Oils
eed
sPu
blic
p
rocu
rem
ent
Co
nsi
der
ed r
efo
rmin
g t
he
cou
ntr
y's
pu
blic
pro
cure
men
t sc
hem
e fo
r ag
ricu
ltu
ral c
rop
s, in
clu
din
g o
ilsee
ds,
to
en
forc
e m
inim
um
su
pp
ort
pri
ces
set
by
the
Go
vern
men
t.
Jun
-18
Cru
de/
refi
ned
so
ybea
n-,
su
nfl
ow
er-,
g
rou
nd
nu
t-,
rap
esee
d-o
il
Imp
ort
po
licy
Rai
sed
imp
ort
du
ties
fo
r ve
get
able
oils
oth
er t
han
pal
m o
il b
y a
furt
her
5-1
0 p
erce
nt.
Jun
-18
Sun
flo
wer
see
dPu
blic
p
rocu
rem
ent
Init
iate
d p
rocu
rem
ent
of
sun
flo
wer
see
d in
th
e st
ate
of
Har
yan
a at
Go
vern
men
t-se
t m
inim
um
pri
ces,
in a
bid
to
sh
ield
g
row
ers
fro
m s
har
p p
rice
dro
ps.
Ind
on
esia
No
v-17
to
Ju
n-1
8Pa
lm o
il Ex
po
rt p
olic
yK
ept
the
cou
ntr
y's
slid
ing
tax
on
cru
de
pal
m o
il ex
po
rts
at z
ero
, mar
kin
g 1
4 m
on
ths
in s
ucc
essi
on
wit
h n
o e
xpo
rt t
ax.
No
v-17
Oil
pal
mSe
cto
r d
evel
op
men
t m
easu
re
Lau
nch
ed a
n o
il p
alm
rej
uve
nat
ion
sch
eme
for
smal
l oil
pal
m g
row
ers,
in a
bid
to
rai
se y
ield
s in
sm
allh
old
er p
lan
tati
on
s.
The
new
sch
eme
will
co
ver
20 0
00 h
a o
f In
do
nes
ian
Su
stai
nab
le P
alm
Oil
(ISP
O)
cert
ified
pla
nta
tio
ns
in a
firs
t p
has
e.
Feb
-18
Peat
lan
dEn
viro
nm
enta
l p
olic
yC
han
nel
led
USD
21.
7 m
illio
n in
sta
te f
un
ds
to t
he
go
vern
ors
of
seve
n p
rovi
nce
s d
esig
nat
ed a
s p
rio
rity
inte
rven
tio
n a
reas
fo
r fi
eld
pro
gra
mm
es t
o a
ccel
erat
e p
eatl
and
res
tora
tio
n.
FOOD OUTLOOKJULY 2018
Oilcro
ps
CO
UN
TRY
DA
TEPR
OD
CU
TPO
LIC
Y
CA
TEG
ORY
/IN
STR
UM
ENT
DES
CR
IPTI
ON
Ind
on
esia
Mar
-18
Bio
die
sel
Bio
fuel
po
licy
Co
nsi
der
ed w
iden
ing
th
e sc
op
e o
f th
e co
un
try’
s b
iod
iese
l su
pp
ort
po
licy
by
chan
nel
ling
su
bsi
die
s n
ot
on
ly t
o s
tate
-o
wn
ed p
etro
l co
mp
anie
s b
ut
also
to
sm
all p
riva
te o
utl
ets,
as
par
t o
f am
bit
iou
s p
lan
s to
exp
and
do
mes
tic
con
sum
pti
on
of
pal
m-b
iod
iese
l.
Mar
-18
Palm
oil
Trad
e st
and
ard
Wo
rked
on
a p
resi
den
tial
reg
ula
tio
n t
o f
ost
er t
he
ado
pti
on
of
the
cou
ntr
y's
nat
ion
al IS
PO s
tan
dar
d, w
hic
h b
ecam
e m
and
ato
ry in
201
5, b
ut
is e
stim
ated
to
co
ver
on
ly 1
7 p
erce
nt
of
the
cou
ntr
y's
tota
l oil
pal
m p
lan
tati
on
are
a.
Ap
r-18
Palm
oil
Tran
spo
rt
infr
astr
uct
ure
Post
po
ned
th
e im
ple
men
tati
on
of
reg
ula
tio
ns
req
uir
ing
exp
ort
ers
of
pal
m o
il to
use
exc
lusi
vely
Ind
on
esia
-flag
ged
ves
sels
u
nti
l 202
0.
May
-18
Bio
die
sel
Bio
fuel
po
licy
Dec
ided
to
i) m
ain
tain
su
bsi
die
s to
pro
du
cers
of
pal
m o
il-b
ased
die
sel;
ii) e
xpan
d m
and
ato
ry b
iod
iese
l use
to
th
e m
inin
g
and
rai
lway
sec
tors
; an
d ii
i) u
ph
old
pla
ns
to f
urt
her
rai
se d
om
esti
c ad
mix
ture
leve
ls in
th
e tr
ansp
ort
atio
n a
nd
en
erg
y se
cto
rs in
th
e co
min
g y
ears
.
May
-18
Oil
pal
mLa
nd
rig
hts
An
no
un
ced
th
at a
un
ified
dat
abas
e in
teg
rati
ng
var
iou
s la
nd
-use
map
s –
wh
ich
co
uld
be
inst
rum
enta
l in
iden
tify
ing
o
verl
app
ing
lan
d c
on
cess
ion
s an
d a
dd
ress
ing
th
e p
rob
lem
of
illeg
al o
il p
alm
pla
nta
tio
ns
– w
ou
ld b
e co
mp
lete
d in
th
e co
urs
e o
f 20
18.
May
-18
Oil
pal
mSe
cto
r d
evel
op
men
t m
easu
re
Pled
ged
to
exp
and
a c
ou
ntr
ywid
e o
il p
alm
rej
uve
nat
ion
pro
gra
mm
e la
un
ched
in N
ove
mb
er 2
017
to c
ove
r 18
5 00
0 h
a (i
nst
ead
of
the
ori
gin
ally
tar
get
ed 2
0 00
0 h
a) o
f sm
allh
old
er p
lan
tati
on
s in
201
8.
May
-18
Palm
oil
Trad
e st
and
ard
Co
nd
uct
ed r
esea
rch
into
th
e ad
op
tio
n o
f th
e co
un
try'
s IS
PO s
tan
dar
d b
y sm
allh
old
ers,
rep
ort
ing
a n
um
ber
of
chal
len
ges
, in
par
ticu
lar:
a la
ck o
f as
sist
ance
in a
do
pti
ng
ag
ricu
ltu
ral b
est
pra
ctic
es; u
ncl
ear
lan
d o
wn
ersh
ip; a
nd
a la
ck o
f ac
cess
to
IS
PO c
om
plia
nt
seed
ling
s an
d f
erti
lizer
.
Isra
elN
ov-
17O
live
oil
Imp
ort
po
licy
An
no
un
ced
a g
rad
ual
incr
ease
in t
he
cou
ntr
y's
du
ty-f
ree
imp
ort
qu
ota
fo
r o
live
oil,
aim
ed a
t d
rivi
ng
do
wn
th
e p
rice
to
co
nsu
mer
s an
d s
tim
ula
tin
g lo
cal o
live
oil
con
sum
pti
on
.
Kaz
akh
stan
No
v-17
Oils
eed
sA
gri
cult
ura
l p
olic
yC
on
vert
ed a
rea-
bas
ed s
ub
sid
ies
to p
aym
ents
per
to
nn
e d
eliv
ered
by
farm
ers
to lo
cal c
rush
ers,
wit
h a
vie
w t
o im
pro
vin
g
the
latt
er’s
su
pp
ly w
ith
do
mes
tic
raw
mat
eria
l.
Mal
aysi
a/G
han
aN
ov-
17O
il p
alm
Bila
tera
l co
op
erat
ion
Pled
ged
to
fo
ster
th
e ex
chan
ge
of
tech
nic
al a
nd
mar
keti
ng
exp
erti
se b
etw
een
th
e tw
o c
ou
ntr
ies’
pal
m o
il in
du
stri
es, i
n a
b
id t
o s
tren
gth
en G
han
a’s
pro
du
ctio
n a
nd
pro
cess
ing
cap
acit
ies.
Mal
aysi
a/
Vie
t N
amN
ov-
17O
il p
alm
Bila
tera
l co
op
erat
ion
Ag
reed
to
exp
lore
op
po
rtu
nit
ies
for
stra
teg
ic c
olla
bo
rati
on
in d
evel
op
ing
th
e tw
o c
ou
ntr
ies’
pla
nta
tio
n in
du
stri
es,
par
ticu
larl
y co
nce
rnin
g o
il p
alm
, ru
bb
er a
nd
pep
per
.
Mal
aysi
a
No
v-17
Palm
oil
Trad
e st
and
ard
Co
nti
nu
ed e
ffo
rts
to in
crea
se in
tern
atio
nal
acc
epta
nce
of
the
Mal
aysi
an S
ust
ain
able
Pal
m O
il (M
SPO
) ce
rtifi
cati
on
sc
hem
e. In
ad
dit
ion
to
sm
allh
old
ers,
larg
er p
rod
uce
rs a
nd
pro
cess
ing
fac
iliti
es w
ere
also
incl
ud
ed a
mo
ng
rec
ipie
nts
of
aud
it c
ost
su
bsi
die
s.
No
v-17
Palm
oil
Trad
e st
and
ard
Saw
th
e st
ate
of
Sab
ah p
roce
ed w
ith
its
ow
n lo
cal p
alm
oil
cert
ifica
tio
n s
trat
egy,
wh
ile t
he
fed
eral
Go
vern
men
t m
ove
d
ahea
d w
ith
nat
ion
wid
e im
ple
men
tati
on
of
the
MSP
O s
tan
dar
d.
Mal
aysi
a/
Sri L
anka
Dec
-17
Palm
oil
Bila
tera
l tra
de
agre
emen
tEx
plo
red
th
e p
oss
ibili
ty o
f en
teri
ng
into
a f
ree
trad
e ag
reem
ent,
wh
ich
wo
uld
par
ticu
larl
y im
ply
bet
ter
acce
ss o
f M
alay
sian
pal
m o
il to
th
e Sr
i Lan
kan
mar
ket.
Mal
aysi
a
Jan
-18
Palm
oil
Exp
ort
po
licy
Susp
end
ed t
he
cou
ntr
y's
slid
ing
tax
on
cru
de
pal
m o
il ex
po
rts
fro
m 8
Jan
uar
y 20
18 t
o e
nd
-Ap
ril 2
018,
in a
bid
to
st
imu
late
inte
rnat
ion
al d
eman
d f
or
Mal
aysi
an p
alm
oil,
cu
rb d
om
esti
c st
ock
s an
d s
up
po
rt lo
cal p
rice
s.
Jan
-18
Oil
pal
mTr
ade
stan
dar
dR
epo
rted
pro
gre
ss in
th
e ad
op
tio
n o
f th
e co
un
try'
s M
SPO
sta
nd
ard
set
to
bec
om
e m
and
ato
ry in
201
9, a
nd
an
no
un
ced
ad
dit
ion
al s
up
po
rt m
easu
res
to f
acili
tate
cer
tifi
cati
on
, wit
h s
pec
ial a
tten
tio
n p
aid
to
sm
all-
scal
e g
row
ers.
Ma
jor
po
licy
de
velo
pm
en
ts
FOOD OUTLOOKJULY 2018
CO
UN
TRY
DA
TEPR
OD
CU
TPO
LIC
Y
CA
TEG
ORY
/IN
STR
UM
ENT
DES
CR
IPTI
ON
Mex
ico
No
v-17
Soyb
ean
sG
MO
po
licy
Rev
oke
d p
erm
issi
on
to
co
mm
erci
aliz
e a
GM
so
ybea
n, f
ollo
win
g t
he
vari
ety’
s d
etec
tio
n in
are
as w
her
e it
s cu
ltiv
atio
n w
as
no
t p
erm
itte
d.
May
-18
Oils
eed
sA
gri
cult
ura
l p
olic
yR
enew
ed n
atio
nal
pro
gra
mm
es d
esig
ned
to
i) e
nco
ura
ge
do
mes
tic
oils
eed
pro
du
ctio
n (
‘Pro
-Ole
agin
osa
s’);
ii)
pro
vid
e fa
rmer
s w
ith
liq
uid
ity
to in
vest
in p
rod
uct
ive
acti
viti
es (
‘Pro
agro
’); a
nd
iii)
sti
mu
late
fo
rwar
d s
ales
.
May
-18
Soyb
ean
s, r
apes
eed
, sa
fflo
wer
see
d,
sele
cted
gra
ins
Ag
ricu
ltu
ral
po
licy
Rai
sed
th
e ta
rget
pri
ces
use
d t
o d
eter
min
e fa
rmer
su
pp
ort
pay
men
ts u
nd
er t
he
cou
ntr
y's
Mar
keti
ng
Su
pp
ort
Pro
gra
m,
wit
h a
vie
w t
o o
ffse
ttin
g in
crea
ses
in p
rod
uct
ion
co
sts
and
su
pp
lem
enti
ng
pro
du
cers
' in
com
es. F
or
soyb
ean
s, r
apes
eed
an
d s
affl
ow
er s
eed
, th
e ta
rget
pri
ces
wer
e in
crea
sed
by
27 p
erce
nt.
Mo
nte
neg
roM
ar-1
8O
live
oil
Sect
or
dev
elo
pm
ent
mea
sure
Envi
sag
ed m
easu
res
to s
tren
gth
en d
om
esti
c o
live
oil
pro
du
ctio
n, w
ith
ass
ista
nce
fro
m t
he
Turk
ish
dev
elo
pm
ent
coo
per
atio
n a
gen
cy.
Paki
stan
No
v-17
Sun
flo
wer
see
dSe
cto
r d
evel
op
men
t m
easu
re
Intr
od
uce
d a
n a
rea-
bas
ed s
ub
sid
y fo
r su
nfl
ow
er s
eed
cu
ltiv
atio
n in
Pu
nja
b P
rovi
nce
an
d p
lan
ned
to
est
ablis
h r
egio
nal
p
rocu
rem
ent
cen
tres
to
en
sure
far
mer
s re
ceiv
e a
gu
aran
teed
pri
ce.
May
-18
Oliv
e tr
eeSe
cto
r d
evel
op
men
t m
easu
re
Co
nti
nu
ed p
urs
uin
g e
ffo
rts
to p
rom
ote
oliv
e cu
ltiv
atio
n in
dif
fere
nt
par
ts o
f th
e co
un
try,
incl
ud
ing
fre
e-o
f-ch
arg
e d
istr
ibu
tio
n a
nd
pla
nti
ng
of
sap
ling
s, a
s w
ell a
s ac
cess
to
su
bsi
die
s an
d t
rain
ing
.
Peru
/Au
stra
liaN
ov-
17R
apes
eed
Bila
tera
l tra
de
agre
emen
tA
gre
ed o
n d
uty
-fre
e en
try
of
Au
stra
lian
rap
esee
d in
to P
eru
.
Peru
No
v-17
Foo
d p
rod
uct
lab
els
Hea
lth
po
licy
Rel
ease
d a
man
ual
wit
h s
pec
ifica
tio
ns
for
war
nin
gs
rela
ted
to
sat
ura
ted
fat
, tra
ns-
fat,
sal
t an
d s
ug
ar c
on
ten
t o
n f
oo
d
pro
du
ct la
bel
s.
Phili
pp
ines
Dec
-17
Co
con
ut
Sect
or
dev
elo
pm
ent
mea
sure
Plan
ned
to
dis
trib
ute
20
mill
ion
co
con
ut
seed
ling
s d
uri
ng
th
e 20
18–2
020
per
iod
via
its
nat
ion
al r
epla
nti
ng
pro
gra
mm
e.
Rep
ub
lic o
f K
ore
a
Jan
-18
Bio
die
sel
Bio
fuel
po
licy
Rai
sed
th
e m
and
ato
ry in
clu
sio
n r
ate
for
bio
die
sel i
n t
ran
spo
rt d
iese
l, w
hic
h e
nta
ils a
ris
e in
do
mes
tic
bio
die
sel
pro
du
ctio
n –
bas
ed o
n im
po
rts
of
pal
m o
il as
pri
mar
y fe
edst
ock
.
May
-18
Soyb
ean
s, m
aize
Trad
e ar
ran
gem
ent
An
no
un
ced
its
inte
nti
on
to
res
tart
tra
de
talk
s w
ith
th
e M
erco
sur
trad
e b
loc
in t
he
firs
t h
alf
of
2018
, fo
cusi
ng
, in
ter
alia
, o
n s
oyb
ean
an
d m
aize
imp
ort
s fr
om
Mer
cosu
r co
un
trie
s.
Sen
egal
May
-18
Gro
un
dn
uts
Mar
ket
reg
ula
tio
nSi
gn
ed a
mem
ora
nd
um
of
un
der
stan
din
g w
ith
ind
ust
ry s
take
ho
lder
s to
reg
ula
te t
he
mar
keti
ng
of
cru
de
and
refi
ned
g
rou
nd
nu
t o
il.
Serb
ia/T
urk
eyM
ar-1
8Su
nfl
ow
er s
eed
, su
nfl
ow
er o
ilTr
ade
arra
ng
emen
tN
ego
tiat
ed d
uty
-fre
e q
uo
tas
for
Serb
ian
exp
ort
s o
f su
nfl
ow
er s
eed
an
d c
rud
e/re
fin
ed s
un
flo
wer
oil
to T
urk
ey.
Sri L
anka
/M
alay
sia
Dec
-17
Palm
oil
Bila
tera
l tra
de
agre
emen
tEx
plo
red
th
e p
oss
ibili
ty o
f en
teri
ng
into
a f
ree
trad
e ag
reem
ent,
wh
ich
wo
uld
par
ticu
larl
y im
ply
bet
ter
acce
ss o
f M
alay
sian
pal
m o
il to
th
e Sr
i Lan
kan
mar
ket.
Sri L
anka
Mar
-18
Co
con
ut
Mar
ket
reg
ula
tio
nC
on
firm
ed p
lan
s to
tem
po
rari
ly p
erm
it im
po
rts
of
fres
h u
nh
usk
ed c
oco
nu
t to
ad
dre
ss a
sh
ort
age
in d
om
esti
c su
pp
lies
and
hal
t a
surg
e in
loca
l pri
ces.
Thai
lan
d
Dec
-17
Tran
s-fa
tty
acid
Hea
lth
po
licy
Dra
fted
a n
ew r
equ
irem
ent
that
wo
uld
ban
th
e u
se o
f p
arti
ally
hyd
rog
enat
ed o
ils in
fo
od
s, in
a b
id t
o r
edu
ce c
on
sum
ers’
ex
po
sure
to
car
dio
vasc
ula
r d
isea
ses.
Dec
-17
Palm
oil
Mar
ket
reg
ula
tio
n
Imp
lem
ente
d m
easu
res
aim
ed a
t st
abili
zin
g d
om
esti
c p
alm
oil
sup
plie
s an
d p
rice
s, t
hu
s p
rote
ctin
g g
row
ers'
inco
mes
. Th
e n
ew m
easu
res
focu
sed
on
en
cou
rag
ing
pal
m o
il u
pta
ke b
y th
e co
un
try'
s en
erg
y se
cto
r an
d e
xplo
rin
g n
ew e
xpo
rt
op
po
rtu
nit
ies.
May
-18
Bio
die
sel
Bio
fuel
po
licy
An
no
un
ced
pla
ns
to r
aise
man
dat
ory
ble
nd
ing
of
pal
m o
il-b
ased
bio
die
sel i
n t
he
cou
ntr
y’s
auto
mo
tive
an
d r
ailw
ay
sect
ors
fro
m 7
per
cen
t to
10
per
cen
t, w
ith
a v
iew
to
su
pp
ort
ing
do
mes
tic
pal
m o
il p
rice
s.
Turk
eyN
ov-
17Fo
od
pro
du
ct la
bel
sFo
od
sta
nd
ard
Post
po
ned
th
e im
ple
men
tati
on
of
its
Pro
du
ct V
erifi
cati
on
Mo
nit
ori
ng
Sys
tem
– a
imed
at
elim
inat
ing
ad
ult
erat
ed f
oo
ds,
im
itat
ion
s an
d f
rau
d –
am
id in
du
stry
co
nce
rns
abo
ut
cost
an
d f
oo
d s
afet
y is
sues
.
Jan
-18
Bio
die
sel
Bio
fuel
po
licy
Intr
od
uce
d m
and
ato
ry b
len
din
g o
f tr
ansp
ort
die
sel w
ith
0.5
per
cen
t b
iod
iese
l.
Turk
ey/S
erb
iaM
ar-1
8Su
nfl
ow
er s
eed
, su
nfl
ow
er o
ilTr
ade
arra
ng
emen
tA
gre
ed t
o d
uty
-fre
e q
uo
tas
for
imp
ort
s o
f su
nfl
ow
er s
eed
an
d c
rud
e/re
fin
ed s
un
flo
wer
oil
fro
m S
erb
ia.
FOOD OUTLOOKJULY 2018
Oilcro
ps
*A
det
aile
d de
scrip
tion
of m
ajor
pol
icy
deve
lopm
ents
fro
m J
anua
ry 2
011
onw
ards
is a
vaila
ble
at h
ttp:
//ww
w.f
ao.o
rg/e
cono
mic
/est
/est
-com
mod
ities
/com
mod
ity-p
olic
y-ar
chiv
e/en
/?gr
oupA
ND
com
mod
ity=
Oils
eeds
,%20
oils
%20
and%
20m
eals
.
CO
UN
TRY
DA
TEPR
OD
CU
TPO
LIC
Y
CA
TEG
ORY
/IN
STR
UM
ENT
DES
CR
IPTI
ON
Ug
and
aM
ay-1
8O
il p
alm
Sect
or
dev
elo
pm
ent
mea
sure
Exp
and
ed it
s ef
fort
s to
pro
mo
te o
il p
alm
cu
ltiv
atio
n a
cro
ss t
he
cou
ntr
y in
par
tner
ship
wit
h U
N a
gen
cy IF
AD
an
d a
gro
up
o
f p
riva
te in
vest
ors
.
Ukr
ain
e/C
hin
aSe
p-1
7Su
nfl
ow
er m
eal
Trad
e ar
ran
gem
ent
Sig
ned
a p
roto
col o
n s
tora
ge,
pac
kag
ing
, lab
ellin
g a
nd
qu
aran
tin
e re
qu
irem
ents
fo
r im
po
rtin
g U
krai
nia
n s
un
flo
wer
m
eal t
o C
hin
a.
Ukr
ain
eD
ec-1
7 to
May
-18
Soyb
ean
s, r
apes
eed
Exp
ort
po
licy
An
no
un
ced
th
e ce
ssat
ion
of
the
exis
tin
g v
alu
e-ad
ded
tax
ref
un
d f
or
sun
flo
wer
see
d, s
oyb
ean
an
d r
apes
eed
ex
po
rts,
eff
ecti
ve, r
esp
ecti
vely
, 1 M
arch
201
8, 1
Sep
tem
ber
201
8 an
d 1
Jan
uar
y 20
20. S
ub
seq
uen
tly
po
stp
on
ed t
he
imp
lem
enta
tio
n d
ate
app
lyin
g t
o s
oyb
ean
an
d r
apes
eed
far
mer
s (b
ut
no
t tr
ader
s) t
o 3
1 D
ecem
ber
202
1.
Un
ited
Kin
gd
om
Ap
r-18
Bio
die
sel
Bio
fuel
po
licy
Intr
od
uce
d a
nu
mb
er o
f ch
ang
es in
th
e co
un
try'
s R
enew
able
Tra
nsp
ort
Fu
el O
blig
atio
n, i
ncl
ud
ing
hig
her
man
dat
ory
b
len
din
g r
ates
, a lo
wer
cap
on
cro
p-b
ased
bio
fuel
s, a
nd
su
pp
ort
fo
r th
e p
rod
uct
ion
of
sust
ain
able
ren
ewab
le a
viat
ion
fu
el.
Un
ited
Sta
tes
No
v-17
Bio
die
sel
Bio
fuel
po
licy
An
no
un
ced
man
dat
ory
tar
get
s fo
r re
new
able
fu
el p
rod
uct
ion
in 2
018,
en
taili
ng
i) a
fra
ctio
nal
incr
ease
in t
ota
l vo
lum
e o
ver
2017
; ii)
un
chan
ged
leve
ls o
f n
on
-ad
van
ced
/co
nve
nti
on
al b
iofu
els;
an
d ii
i) a
mar
gin
al r
ise
for
adva
nce
d b
iofu
els
(wh
ich
incl
ud
e b
iom
ass-
bas
ed d
iese
l).
No
v-17
Foo
d p
rod
uct
lab
els
Hea
lth
po
licy
Pro
po
sed
rev
oki
ng
an
au
tho
rize
d h
ealt
h c
laim
th
at li
nks
so
y p
rote
in c
on
sum
pti
on
to
red
uce
d r
isk
of
hea
rt d
isea
se, c
itin
g
inco
nsi
sten
t re
sear
ch r
esu
lts.
No
v to
Dec
-17
Dic
amb
aPe
stic
ide
reg
ula
tio
n
Rep
ort
ed t
he
follo
win
g m
easu
res:
i) a
n a
gre
emen
t w
ith
man
ufa
ctu
rers
of
Dic
amb
a o
n m
ean
s o
f p
rote
ctin
g n
on
-res
ista
nt
cro
ps
fro
m p
ote
nti
al d
rift
dam
age;
an
d ii
) th
e in
tro
du
ctio
n o
f st
ate
spec
ific
bin
din
g r
estr
icti
on
s re
gar
din
g t
he
her
bic
ide’
s u
se in
Ark
ansa
s, M
inn
eso
ta, M
isso
uri
an
d N
ort
h D
ako
ta.
No
v-17
Bio
die
sel
Trad
e d
isp
ute
Set
fin
al c
ou
nte
rvai
ling
du
ties
fo
r b
iod
iese
l im
po
rts
fro
m A
rgen
tin
a an
d In
do
nes
ia.
Dec
-17
Gly
ph
osa
teH
ealt
h p
olic
yR
elea
sed
a d
raft
hu
man
ris
k as
sess
men
t co
ncl
ud
ing
th
at g
lyp
ho
sate
, a w
idel
y u
sed
th
ou
gh
co
ntr
ove
rsia
l her
bic
ide,
is n
ot
likel
y to
be
carc
ino
gen
ic t
o h
um
ans.
Feb
-18
Bio
die
sel
Bio
fuel
po
licy
Pass
ed a
ret
roac
tive
on
e-ye
ar e
xten
sio
n o
f a
tax
cred
it g
ran
ted
to
bio
die
sel b
len
der
s (w
hic
h h
ad e
xpir
ed o
n 3
1 D
ecem
ber
20
16),
tri
gg
erin
g a
cas
h t
ran
sfer
of
USD
2.6
mill
ion
to
th
e U
.S. b
iod
iese
l su
pp
ly c
hai
n.
Feb
-18
Bio
die
sel
Trad
e d
isp
ute
Set
fin
al a
nti
-du
mp
ing
du
ties
fo
r b
iod
iese
l im
po
rts
fro
m A
rgen
tin
a an
d In
do
nes
ia (
in a
dd
itio
n t
o t
he
cou
nte
rvai
ling
d
uti
es im
po
sed
in N
ove
mb
er 2
017)
.
Mar
-18
Bio
die
sel
Bio
fuel
po
licy
Dec
ided
to
su
pp
ort
res
earc
h o
n t
he
dev
elo
pm
ent
of
enh
ance
d s
ug
ar c
ane
and
ele
ph
ant
gra
ss, i
n a
n e
ffo
rt t
o id
enti
fy
alte
rnat
ive
feed
sto
ck f
or
the
pro
du
ctio
n o
f tr
ansp
ort
bio
die
sel a
nd
avi
atio
n f
uel
.
May
-18
Bio
die
sel
Bio
fuel
po
licy
Imp
lem
ente
d h
igh
er b
iofu
el b
len
din
g r
equ
irem
ents
fo
r p
etro
leu
m d
iese
l du
rin
g t
he
sum
mer
mo
nth
s (A
pri
l to
Se
pte
mb
er)
in t
he
stat
e o
f M
inn
eso
ta.
Uzb
ekis
tan
No
v-17
Veg
etab
le o
ils,
cott
on
seed
mea
lM
arke
t re
gu
lati
on
Inst
ruct
ed s
tate
ag
enci
es t
o s
tep
up
eff
ort
s to
en
d a
lleg
ed a
rtifi
cial
ove
rsta
tin
g o
f p
rice
s fo
r a
nu
mb
er o
f b
asic
fo
od
s an
d
feed
stu
ffs,
incl
ud
ing
veg
etab
le o
ils a
nd
co
tto
nse
ed m
eal.
Jan
-18
Oils
, fat
sSe
cto
r d
evel
op
men
t m
easu
re
Issu
ed a
ro
adm
ap f
or
the
acce
lera
ted
dev
elo
pm
ent
of
the
cou
ntr
y’s
oils
an
d f
ats
ind
ust
ry, i
ncl
ud
ing
a o
ne-
year
ex
emp
tio
n f
rom
pay
men
t o
f va
lue-
add
ed t
ax f
or
oil/
fat
man
ufa
ctu
rers
.
Vie
t N
am/
Mal
aysi
aN
ov-
17O
il p
alm
Bila
tera
l co
op
erat
ion
Ag
reed
to
exp
lore
op
po
rtu
nit
ies
for
stra
teg
ic c
olla
bo
rati
on
in d
evel
op
ing
th
e tw
o c
ou
ntr
ies’
pla
nta
tio
n in
du
stri
es,
par
ticu
larl
y co
nce
rnin
g o
il p
alm
, ru
bb
er a
nd
pep
per
.
Vie
t N
amJa
n-1
8O
ilsee
ds,
oils
eed
p
rod
uct
sIm
po
rt p
olic
yLo
wer
ed o
r re
mo
ved
th
e co
un
try’
s im
po
rt t
arif
fs o
n o
ilsee
d a
nd
oils
eed
pro
du
cts,
in li
ne
wit
h p
rovi
sio
ns
of
a n
um
ber
of
reg
ion
al a
nd
bila
tera
l fre
e tr
ade
agre
emen
ts.
Wo
rld
Hea
lth
O
rgan
izat
ion
May
-18
Satu
rate
d f
atty
aci
ds,
tr
ans-
fatt
y ac
ids
Hea
lth
po
licy
Issu
ed i)
a c
all f
or
pu
blic
co
mm
ents
on
dra
ft r
eco
mm
end
atio
ns
abo
ut
the
inta
ke o
f sa
tura
ted
fat
ty a
cid
s an
d t
ran
s-fa
tty
acid
s m
ean
t to
red
uce
th
e ri
sk o
f ca
rdio
vasc
ula
r d
isea
ses;
an
d ii
) a
step
-by-
step
gu
ide
for
the
elim
inat
ion
of
ind
ust
rial
ly
pro
du
ced
tra
ns-
fatt
y ac
ids
fro
m t
he
glo
bal
fo
od
su
pp
ly.
FOOD OUTLOOK JULY 2018
Statistica
l ap
pe
nd
ix
APPENDIX TABLE 10: TOTAL OILCROPS STATISTICS (million tonnes)
13/14-15/16 average
2016/17 2017/1813/14-15/16
average2016/17 2017/18
13/14-15/16 average
2016/17 2017/18
f'cast f'cast f'cast
ASIA 132.9 137.6 140.5 111.0 132.6 134.2 3.4 4.1 4.4China 58.8 58.8 61.8 85.0 101.5 104.0 1.1 1.1 1.2 of which Taiwan Prov. 0.1 0.1 0.1 2.5 2.6 2.7 - - -India 36.8 41.4 39.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 1.0 1.4 1.5Indonesia 11.2 11.3 12.2 2.5 2.8 2.7 0.1 0.1 0.1Iran, Islamic Republic of 0.7 0.7 0.7 1.3 2.2 2.1 0.1 0.1 0.1Japan 0.3 0.3 0.3 5.8 6.0 6.1 - - -Korea, Republic of 0.2 0.1 0.2 1.6 1.5 1.7 - - -Malaysia 4.8 5.1 5.3 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.1 0.1 0.1Pakistan 4.8 4.3 4.4 1.8 3.0 3.3 - - -Thailand 0.8 1.1 1.1 2.4 3.0 3.0 - - -Turkey 3.2 3.2 3.6 3.0 3.2 2.6 0.1 0.2 0.1
AFRICA 19.9 20.2 20.8 3.8 4.9 4.6 0.8 0.8 0.8Nigeria 4.7 4.7 4.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
CENTRAL AMERICA 1.8 2.1 2.0 6.5 6.9 6.9 0.2 0.2 0.2Mexico 1.3 1.5 1.5 5.7 6.2 6.1 - - -
SOUTH AMERICA 174.6 195.1 179.2 2.2 3.8 5.8 69.6 80.3 86.1Argentina 61.9 60.1 40.9 0.2 1.8 3.8 10.4 7.9 3.7Brazil 96.1 117.3 122.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 50.8 63.4 74.1Paraguay 9.3 10.3 10.1 - - - 5.0 5.5 6.0Uruguay 3.3 3.6 2.1 - - - 3.0 3.2 2.1
NORTH AMERICA 136.1 154.8 161.7 3.0 2.3 2.4 65.5 77.6 75.0Canada 25.2 27.3 30.2 0.6 0.7 0.7 14.4 16.5 17.1United States of America 110.9 127.5 131.6 2.4 1.7 1.8 51.1 61.1 57.8
EUROPE 66.5 70.8 74.3 21.3 23.5 22.8 6.1 6.8 7.1European Union 33.7 32.0 35.7 18.5 20.7 19.9 1.1 1.0 1.0Russian Federation 13.4 16.1 16.5 2.1 2.0 2.3 0.5 1.0 1.1Ukraine 17.0 20.8 19.7 - - - 3.9 4.3 4.5
OCEANIA 4.9 6.2 5.8 - - - 2.8 3.9 3.3Australia 4.5 5.8 5.3 - - - 2.7 3.8 3.2
WORLD 536.7 586.8 584.3 147.8 174.1 176.8 148.4 173.5 176.8Developing countries 329.4 355.2 342.6 117.7 142.2 145.3 74.1 85.4 91.5Developed countries 207.3 231.6 241.7 30.1 31.9 31.5 74.3 88.1 85.2LIFDC 62.2 66.5 64.5 4.0 5.6 5.8 1.8 2.3 2.4LDC 13.3 13.6 13.8 1.1 1.5 1.6 0.6 0.6 0.6
1 The split years bring together northern hemisphere annual crops harvested in the latter part of the first year shown, with southern hemisphere annual crops harvested in the early part of the second year shown; for tree crops which are produced throughout the year, calendar year production for the second year shown is used.
APPENDIX TABLE 10: TOTAL OILCROPS STATISTICS (million tonnes)
Production 1 Imports Exports
Sta
tist
ica
l a
pp
en
dix
FOOD OUTLOOKJULY 2018
APPENDIX TABLE 11: TOTAL OILS AND FATS STATISTICS 1 (million tonnes)
13/14-15/16 average
2016/17 2017/1813/14-15/16
average2016/17 2017/18
13/14-15/16 average
2016/17 2017/18
f'cast f'cast f'cast
ASIA 44.7 48.4 48.6 49.6 51.9 53.0 106.0 117.4 120.6Bangladesh 1.9 2.4 2.5 - - - 2.3 2.8 2.9China 10.3 9.5 9.8 0.6 0.6 0.6 37.9 41.1 41.7 of which Taiwan Prov. 0.5 0.5 0.5 - - - 0.9 1.0 1.0India 13.8 15.7 15.9 0.3 0.2 0.2 23.2 25.5 26.3Indonesia 0.1 0.1 0.1 26.4 30.0 29.8 10.5 11.8 12.7Iran, Islamic Republic of 1.3 1.5 1.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 1.8 2.0 2.1Japan 1.3 1.4 1.4 - - - 3.2 3.3 3.4Korea, Republic of 1.1 1.2 1.3 - - - 1.4 1.6 1.7Malaysia 1.4 1.4 1.3 18.5 17.6 19.0 4.6 5.2 5.5Pakistan 3.0 3.3 3.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 4.6 5.2 5.3Philippines 0.9 1.3 1.2 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.7 2.2 2.1Singapore 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.7Turkey 1.8 2.0 1.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 3.0 3.2 3.2
AFRICA 11.1 11.9 11.9 2.0 1.8 1.9 17.9 19.2 19.2Algeria 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.0 1.0 1.0Egypt 2.0 2.2 2.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 2.3 2.7 2.6Nigeria 1.5 1.6 1.6 0.2 0.1 0.1 3.2 3.4 3.3South Africa 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.1 - - 1.3 1.5 1.5
CENTRAL AMERICA 2.6 2.6 2.7 1.2 1.5 1.5 5.1 5.3 5.4Mexico 1.5 1.6 1.6 0.1 - - 3.4 3.7 3.6
SOUTH AMERICA 3.2 3.1 3.2 9.8 10.2 10.2 17.5 17.9 19.0Argentina 0.1 0.1 0.1 5.8 6.3 5.9 4.0 3.9 4.0Brazil 0.6 0.6 0.6 1.8 1.6 1.7 8.7 9.1 10.1Paraguay - - - 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.1 0.1 0.1Uruguay 0.1 0.1 0.1 - - - 0.1 0.1 0.2
NORTH AMERICA 5.1 5.5 6.0 6.6 7.3 7.3 20.4 21.3 22.3Canada 0.5 0.5 0.5 3.3 3.8 3.8 1.5 1.5 1.6United States of America 4.7 5.1 5.5 3.4 3.5 3.5 18.9 19.7 20.7
EUROPE 14.3 15.2 14.9 10.5 12.6 12.0 38.6 40.4 41.1European Union 11.7 12.4 12.1 3.3 3.2 3.1 31.9 33.4 33.6Russian Federation 1.3 1.3 1.5 2.3 2.9 2.9 4.5 4.7 4.8Ukraine 0.3 0.3 0.3 4.5 6.1 5.5 1.0 0.9 1.2
OCEANIA 0.6 0.7 0.7 1.9 2.0 2.0 1.2 1.2 1.3Australia 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9
WORLD 81.6 87.4 88.0 81.6 87.3 88.0 206.7 222.7 228.8Developing countries 60.3 64.6 65.0 63.2 66.2 67.5 143.4 156.6 160.9Developed countries 21.3 22.8 23.0 18.4 21.2 20.5 63.2 66.1 67.9LIFDC 26.4 29.6 30.0 2.3 2.2 2.3 43.7 47.8 48.8LDC 7.2 8.1 8.3 0.6 0.7 0.7 10.7 11.7 12.0
1 Includes oils and fats of vegetable, marine and animal origin.
APPENDIX TABLE 11: TOTAL OILS AND FATS STATISTICS 1 (million tonnes)
Imports Exports Utilization
FOOD OUTLOOK JULY 2018
Statistica
l ap
pe
nd
ix
APPENDIX TABLE 12: TOTAL MEALS AND CAKES STATISTICS 1 (million tonnes)
13/14-15/16 average
2016/17 2017/1813/14-15/16
average2016/17 2017/18
13/14-15/16 average
2016/17 2017/18
f'cast f'cast f'cast
ASIA 35.2 37.7 38.5 14.2 14.0 15.0 151.9 170.8 178.4China 2.9 3.6 3.5 2.3 1.9 2.4 83.3 95.3 101.4 of which Taiwan Prov. 0.5 0.5 0.5 - - - 2.5 2.5 2.6India 0.2 0.4 0.5 2.6 2.8 2.6 14.3 15.4 16.3Indonesia 4.2 4.5 4.7 4.3 4.6 4.9 4.8 4.9 5.1Iran, Islamic Republic of 2.1 2.0 1.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 3.4 3.8 3.7Japan 2.3 2.1 2.1 - - - 6.4 6.4 6.4Korea, Republic of 3.9 3.5 3.6 0.2 0.1 0.1 5.0 4.8 4.9Malaysia 1.3 1.5 1.5 2.6 2.6 2.8 2.0 2.3 2.4Pakistan 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.1 3.7 4.5 4.7Philippines 2.5 2.8 2.9 0.5 0.4 0.4 3.0 3.4 3.6Saudi Arabia 1.0 1.5 1.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.4 1.9 1.9Thailand 3.2 3.3 3.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 5.7 6.4 6.3Turkey 1.9 2.2 2.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 5.0 5.7 5.8Viet Nam 4.7 5.6 5.7 0.3 0.3 0.3 6.0 7.3 7.3
AFRICA 5.8 5.8 5.9 1.1 1.1 1.1 13.5 14.6 14.8Egypt 1.6 1.5 1.3 - - - 3.0 3.3 3.3South Africa 1.0 0.8 0.9 0.1 0.1 0.1 2.1 2.2 2.2
CENTRAL AMERICA 4.0 4.3 4.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 9.2 10.2 10.2Mexico 2.2 2.4 2.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 6.7 7.6 7.6
SOUTH AMERICA 5.5 5.2 5.4 49.1 51.5 51.8 28.4 30.6 31.4Argentina - - - 29.2 32.6 29.5 4.1 5.0 4.9Bolivia - - - 1.8 1.5 1.6 0.2 0.4 0.4Brazil - - - 14.3 13.8 16.8 16.6 17.7 18.3Chile 1.2 1.1 1.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 1.6 1.6 1.6Paraguay - - - 2.6 2.3 2.5 0.4 0.5 0.5Peru 1.0 1.2 1.3 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.3 1.6 1.7Uruguay 0.2 0.2 0.2 - - - 0.2 0.2 0.2Venezuela 1.2 0.7 0.7 - - - 1.4 1.0 0.9
NORTH AMERICA 5.1 5.1 5.3 16.3 16.4 17.8 37.1 39.0 41.6Canada 1.0 0.9 1.0 4.8 5.5 5.5 2.2 2.3 3.1United States of America 4.1 4.2 4.3 11.5 11.0 12.3 34.9 36.7 38.5
EUROPE 30.3 30.4 31.4 7.9 8.9 8.7 67.3 70.0 72.5European Union 27.6 27.6 29.0 1.3 1.4 1.4 57.3 58.6 60.7Russian Federation 0.6 0.5 0.2 2.2 2.0 2.0 5.6 6.8 6.9Ukraine - - - 3.9 5.1 4.8 1.7 1.7 2.0
OCEANIA 3.3 3.7 3.9 0.3 0.2 0.2 4.0 4.4 4.8Australia 1.1 1.2 1.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.8 1.9 2.0
WORLD 89.1 92.2 94.8 89.2 92.4 94.8 311.5 339.8 353.6Developing countries 48.2 50.9 52.0 64.8 66.9 68.2 196.7 220.0 228.4Developed countries 40.9 41.3 42.8 24.4 25.5 26.6 114.8 119.7 125.2LIFDC 3.2 3.5 3.6 3.9 3.8 3.7 26.2 28.9 30.3LDC 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.6 5.2 5.8 5.8
1 Expressed in product weight; includes meals and cakes derived from oilcrops as well as fish meal and other meals from animal origin.
APPENDIX TABLE 12: TOTAL MEALS AND CAKES STATISTICS 1
Imports Exports Utilization
Sta
tist
ica
l a
pp
en
dix
FOOD OUTLOOKJULY 2018
APPENDIX TABLE 24: SELECTED INTERNATIONAL PRICES FOR OILCROP PRODUCTS AND FAO PRICE INDICES
International prices 1 FAO indices 8
Period Soybeans 2 Soybean oil 3 Palm oil 4 Soybean cake 5 Rapeseed
meal 6
Oilseeds Vegetable oils Oilcakes/meals
.............................................. (USD per tonne) .............................................. ................... (2002-2004=100) ................
Annual (Oct/Sept)
2004/05 275 545 419 212 130 104 103 101
2005/06 259 572 451 202 130 100 107 96
2006/07 335 772 684 264 184 129 150 128
2007/08 549 1 325 1 050 445 296 216 246 214
2008/09 422 826 627 385 196 157 146 179
2009/10 429 924 806 388 220 162 177 183
2010/11 549 1 308 1 147 418 279 214 259 200
2011/12 562 1 235 1051 461 295 214 232 219
2012/13 563 1 099 835 539 345 213 193 255
2013/14 521 949 867 534 324 194 189 253
2014/15 407 777 658 406 270 155 153 194
2015/16 396 773 655 351 232 151 155 168
2016/17 404 806 729 336 225 154 160 171
Monthly
2016 - October 404 853 712 340 214 153 168 161
2016 - November 409 875 755 343 218 155 176 163
2016 - December 420 902 783 344 211 159 183 163
2017 - January 425 879 806 355 216 161 186 168
2017 - February 428 838 779 357 241 162 179 170
2017 - March 408 809 735 346 238 155 168 164
2017 - April 389 788 693 331 240 149 161 158
2017 - May 392 827 732 329 239 150 169 157
2017 - June 379 821 681 313 238 144 162 150
2017 - July 409 836 665 326 220 154 160 155
2017 - August 391 854 678 318 216 149 164 152
2017 - September 395 879 729 329 209 151 172 156
2017 - October 397 869 721 331 207 151 170 157
2017 - November 401 885 719 333 204 153 172 158
2017 - December 397 863 666 348 219 151 163 165
2018 - January 404 865 679 361 239 153 163 171
2018 - February 416 846 660 400 265 157 158 190
2018 - March 432 830 684 427 294 162 157 203
2018 - April 441 824 663 447 302 164 155 213
2018 - May 432 787 659 443 282 161 151 211
2018 - June 7 393 786 637 394 265 148 146 187
1 Spot prices for nearest forward shipment 2 Soybeans: US, No.2 yellow, c.i.f. Rotterdam.3 Soybean oil: Dutch, fob ex-mill.4 Palm oil: Crude, c.i.f. Roterdam.5 Soybean cake: Pellets, 44/45 percent, Hamburg, f.o.b. ex-mill.6 Rapeseed meal: 34 percent, Hamburg, f.o.b. ex-mill.7 The international prices shown represent averages for the first three weeks of the month.8 The FAO indices are based on the international prices of five selected seeds, ten selected oils and five selected cakes and meals. The indices are calculated using the
Laspeyres formula; the weights used are the export values of each commodity for the 2002-2004 period.
Sources: FAO and Oil World.
