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NORTH AMERICAN REGIONAL

COMMITTEE

MALAQUÍAS PEÑA

5TH NCEP ENSEMBLE USER WORKSHOP

Laurel, MD, May 11, 2011

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THORPEX Goals and Structure

Better high impact

weather forecasts

Effective use of forecast

products.

International

collaboration framework

for weather research and

forecast solutions

Three communities:

academic institutions,

operational forecast

centers and users of

forecast products.

International

Program Office

IPO/ICSC/EC

Regional

Committees:

Africa

Asia

Europe

North

AmericaSouthern

Hemisphere

Predictability and

Dynamical

Processes Working

Group

PDP WG

Data Assimilation

and Observing

Strategies Working

Group

DAOS WG

Global Interactive

Forecasting

System –

THORPEX

Interactive Grand

Global Ensemble

Working Group

GIFS-TIGGE WG

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NARC Goals and country members

Identify weather

phenomena and

prediction issues

with highest impact

in the region

Create awareness

and increase the

number of member

countries

Create a scientific

plan and an

implementation

strategy North and Central American and

Caribbean countries

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NAEFS

Ensemble Initial Perturbations and Development of

Hybrid Data Assimilation System. PIs: Mozheng Wei

(NCEP) and Jeff Whitaker (ESRL)

Extensions and Improvements to the NAEFS Post-

Processor at NCEP/EMC. PIs: Bo Cui (NCEP) and

Paul Shultz ESRL

Development and Operational Implementation of A

Stochastic Perturbation Scheme in GEFS. PIs:

Dingchen Hou (NCEP) and ESRL

Improving high impact weather forecasts by adaptive

observing, data processing. PIs: Yucheng Song and

Yuanfu Xie,

NOAA-Funded Projects

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Operations center,

Monterey, CA

Driftsonde center,

Driftsonde Balloon release,

Hawaii

Aircraft locations, and

aircraft operations centers

Guam

Japan

Taiwan

Okinawa

THORPEX-Pacific Asian Regional Campaign (T-PARC)THORPEX (The Observing-System Research and Predictability Experiment)

And

Tropical Cyclone Structure-08 Experiments (TCS-08)

Collaborative Efforts

Operations and Observation Strategies

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MAIN THEME OF WINTER T-PARC

Tropical flare-ups in western Pacific (IR)

merge with

Waves on westerly flowto influence

Deep cyclogenesis in northeast Pacific

Verification region,

12UTC 14 Oct

Sensitive area 1,

00UTC 11 Oct

Sensitive area 2,

00UTC 11 Oct

Captured by Ensemble Transform

KF targeting method

Study the lifecycle of perturbations as they originate from the tropics, Asia, and/or the

polar front, travel through the Pacific waveguide, and affect high impact wintertime

weather events over North America and the Arctic Youcheng

Song

(NCEP)

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NARC Meetings

2004, 2007, 2010

Last May in Mexico with the 4th NAEFS Workshop

More than 130 attendees

First time 8 meteorological institutions

First time Central America and Caribbean

Working groups: DA and NWP, Capacity Building,

Water management (SERA)

Mexican Steering Committee

Intercomparison experiment (2011)

Observation and Prediction experiment (2012)

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Arctic Research• Study impact of moisture transport to high latitudes

along “atmospheric rivers”

Heavy precipitation over the windward slopes

of the Western Cordillera

Downsloping in the lee may lead to persistent

ridging over the Canadian north and the onset

of drought conditions

Flow pattern associated with diabatic

ridge development over the

Canadian Arctic and Praries in

association with heavy coastal

precipitation events.

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Potential collaborations

Transboundary issues/sectors/ hazards

• Tropical storms

• Temperature stress and health

• Disaster response and recovery

• Energy, food & fibre, transportation

• Tourism

• Water management

Courtesy of Brian Mills

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Hugo G. Hidalgo, Ph.D.

Water Management

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Disaster Prevention

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Energy Sector

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Capacity Building

Strategies:

1. Courses

2. Case studies

Translation to Spanish

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Inter-

comparison

experiment

WRF CCA-UNAM

WRF SMN

WRF IMTA

MM5 SEMAR

WRF NEMS

WRF UDG

A First Step: Experiment of intercomparison

of Mesoscale models in Mexico

Eight institutions run WRF or MM5. What

configuration is optimal for High impact weather?

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Highlights - summary

The U.S. and Canada have made strong contributions to THORPEX. Three major real-time international observational programmes have been completed (for the Atlantic and Pacific) A-TREC, E-TREC and T-PARC

NARC needs expanding membership to scientists and meteorologists in the rest of the region

Some steps are being made with the formation of national committees

Groups in Central America and Caribbean interested

More people involved to create Regional Plan

Thanks

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THORPEX Priorities

Global-to-regional influences on the

evolution and predictability of weather

systems

Global observing-system design and

demonstration

Targeting and assimilation of observations

Societal, economic, and environmental

benefits of improved forecasts

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T-NAWDEXTHORPEX-

North Atlantic Waveguide and Downstream Impact Experiment

To be performed in 2011/2012 in conjunction with HYMEX

address the triggering of waveguide disturbances by different

processes and the disturbances’ subsequent downstream evolution

study of the downstream impacts of the waveguide disturbances

over Europe, the Mediterranean, and northern Africa