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1THORPEX/DAOS meeting, Met Office, 27-28 June 2011

Overview of WWRP/WG-Mesoscale Weather Forecasting Research (MWFR)

activities

Dale Barker, WWRP/WG-MWFR

Slides supplied by Jeanette Onvlee, Chair (MWFR)

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Membership (DA Expertise)

Jeanette Onvlee (KNMI, Netherlands, Chair) Dale Barker (Met Office, UK) Kazuo Saito (JMA/MRI, Japan) Volker Wulfmeyer (Univ. Hohenheim, Germany) Stephane Belair (Environment Canada) Jimy Dudhia (NCAR, USA) Mattias Rotach (Univ. Innsbruck, Austria) Yu Hui (CMA, China)

New for 2011: Peter Steinle (Bureau of Meteorology, Australia) Tiziana Paccagnella (ARPA-SIMC, Italy)

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Activities

Focus on 0.5-5km grid size models, extratropics Pushing mesoscale weather research questions in several fora Help set up / involvement in RDP’s/FDP’s (COPS, B08RDP, Sochi?) Dedicated workshops on specific topics (e.g. Nowcasting10/2011). Liaisons with other WMO WG (e.g. Thorpex/TIGGE-LAM,

WWRP/NWC, JWGV, WGNE, DAOS? …) Last year activities on:

Organize “grey zone” experimentation (WGNE context) Define/promote worldwide standards for mesoscale verification,

and routine model quality assessment and exchange (together with JWGV)

Make inventory of available mesoscale training material, gaps therein

Next (5th) meeting 10-11 September 2011, Berlin.

THORPEX/DAOS meeting, Met Office, 27-28 June 2011

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Past, present and possible future RDP’s and FDP’s

MAP-DPHASE: Demonstration of Probabilistic Hydrological and Atmospheric Simulation of flood Events in the Alpine region

COPS: Convective Orographic Precipitation Study. Intense observation campaign in Rhine Valley area, subsequent process and predictability studies, and assimilation experiments

Beijing 2008 RDP: development, improvement, intercomparison and demonstration of LAM EPS systems.

Potential future WMO RDP/FDP:

Sochi 2014?: RDP/FDP on high-resolution nowcasting and NWP support of Sochi Winter Olympic Games activities (see later).

HYMEX?

THORPEX/DAOS meeting, Met Office, 27-28 June 2011

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5THORPEX/DAOS meeting, Met Office, 27-28 June 2011

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23/4/106

3. B08FDP support 3hour Rapid Update Cycle System

THORPEX/DAOS meeting, Met Office, 27-28 June 2011

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Participants

Model IC Initial Perturbation

LBC LateralPerturbation

Physical Perturbation

NCEP WRF-ARW (5)WRF-NMM (5)

GEFS-Downscaled (T284L60, 5)

(L60M15)

NCEP 3DVAR

Breeding NCEP Global EPS

NCEP Global EPS

Multi-model

MRI/JMA NHM(L40M11)

Meso 4DVAR

(20kmL40)

Targeted Global SV(T42L40)

JMA Global Forecast

(TL959L60)

Forecast of Global model

initiated by targeted SV

non

EC GEM(L28M20)

MSC Global EnKF

MSC Global EnKF

MSC Global EPS

MSC Global EPS

Physical tendency perturbation with

Markov chain, surface

perturbation

ZAMG & Meteo-Fr.

ALADIN(L37M17)

ECMWF Global 4DVAR

Blending ECMWF SV

with ALADIN Bred Mode

ECMWF Global

Forecast

ECMWF EPS

forecast

Multi-physics

NMC/CMA

WRF-ARW(L31M15)

WRF-3DVAR

Breeding CMA Global EPS

CMA Global EPS

Multi-physics

CAMS/CMA

GRAPES(L31M9)

GRAPES-3DVAR

Breeding CMA Global EPS

CMA Global EPS

Multi-physics

Technique characteristics for all participants in 2008

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Accumulated Precipitation

( 04pm Aug.8—06am Aug. 9)

National Stadium

Example 1: Successful service for opening ceremony (National Stadium)

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30%

30%

During the Opening Ceremony, 5 RDP participants forecast a probability of less than 30% for 1mm,and

10mm<=10%

CAMS NMC JMA

ZAMG Canada NCEP

Courtesy Yihong Duan, CMA

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FROST-2014: FORECAST and RESEARCH in the OLYMPIC SOCHI TESTBED

To improve, develop, demonstrate, and exploit:

To improve understanding of physics of high impact weather phenomena in winter complex terrain:

To demonstrate/deliver forecasts in real time to Olympic forecasters and decision makers in order to verify and quantify societal benefits of nowcasts and forecasts

• Enhanced nowcasting observations in winter complex terrain;

• mesoscale (250m-2km) deterministic forecasts of meteorological conditions in complex terrain environment;

• regional EPS forecast products (>7km res);

• nowcasts of high impact weather phenomena in complex terrain.

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Thoughts on DAOS/MWFR Links WWRP/MWFR (convective-scale DA, <1day) complements

WWRP/THORPEX/DAOS (Global DA, 1->=14day).

MWFR closest links so far with other WWRP groups: Nowcasting, Verification, etc.

Existing/potential MWFR/DAOS Interactions: Shared expertise in DA techniques (tendency for global first,

high-res after!) e.g. high-res. obs. sensitivities, but…. Should MWFR provide guidance on high-res. DA for future

global DA (e.g. cloud/precip DA)? Provision of optimal (latest?) LBCs for MWFR RDP/FDPs. Added value of high-res. DA vs global/regional NWP/DA. Treatment of large-scales within high-resolution DA. Observation selection for low/high-res DA.

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14WGNE meeting, Tokyo, 18-22 October 2010

COPS RDP

Summer 2007: massive observation campaign

Subsequent analysis of IOP results: Process studies on the convective life cycle, focussing on selected IOP

cases Research on new observation types: validation, intercomparison and joint

interpretation, representativity studies, sensor synergy Model validation studies (clouds, microphysics) Tests of advanced data assimilation systems, development of observation

operators, observation impact studies Verification techniques and impact assessment of convective-permitting

models

Joint COPS/D-PHASE Database collected, now generally available through DKRZ/Hamburg

COPS project complete in 2011 with production of QJRMS Special Issue.

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D-PHASE Achievements Unprecedented data set

model intercomparison / validation process studies (with COPS) test beds (COST 731 for Data Assimilation, HEPEX) Integrated Mesoscale Research Environment (WG MWFR)

Demonstration of operational coupling of hydrological and meteorological models

JDC = Joint D-PHASE/COPS Verification data set

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D-PHASE Achievements Participation of users

45 end users institutions (civil protection ...) workshops & questionnaires feedback exchange of needs

Scientific results advances in ensemble hydrological modelling radar ensemble, high-resolution EPS, high-res reforecasting, fuzzy verification, economic forecast value, …. 22 peer reviewed papers 72 reports and ext. abs. 165 presentations

BAMS Paper, Sept 2009

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17WGNE meeting, Tokyo, 18-22 October 2010

Scientific issues Mesoscale data assimilation:

What analysis setup is most appropriate for mesoscale/nowcasting? How best to analyze moist processes, with minimal spinup? How to add small scale information while retaining the strengths of

the larger scale nesting analysis? What is best way to use radar, cloud, hydrometeor information?

Convection and complex topography: Grey zone issues (what to do between ~5-10km resolution – WGNE link) How to best represent steep orography?

Surface modelling Initiation and modelling of new, more realistic components (e.g. snow, urban) High-quality high-resolution physiographic data

Predictability and probabilistic forecasting What influences predictability on convection-permitting scales, and how to

describe it? Towards convection-permitting ensembles: practical methods, cross-fertilization

of ensemble and DA techniques?

Underlying all: suitable verification and validation methods, coupled models