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The WWRP Polar Prediction Project

Thomas JungChair of the WWRP Polar Prediction Project

Alfred Wegener Institute17 July 2013

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Progress report

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Outline

Progress since the last ICSCLink with WCRP PCPIIssuesConclusions

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RP3rd WWRP-PPP Steering Group Meeting

ECMWF, 12-13 Dec. 201219 participantsReview of PPP Implementation and Science PlanDevise plans for YOPPICO planningPlanning of workshop and YPMLink with S2s Agreement on strong involvement of ECS (APECS)Link with WCRP-PCPI

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WWRP-PPP Plans

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RPInternational Coordination Office (ICO)

AWI agreed to host the ICO:Administrative supportScientific officer

MoU signed by Michel JarraudMoU to be signed by Karin LochteGo live with ICO website

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ICO Draft Website

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ECMWF-WWRP/THORPEX Polar Prediction Workshop, 24-27 June 2013

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Participants21 speakers≈ 25 non-speakers11 early career scientists

Dedicated poster session (ECS)5 scientific sessionsBreakout groups and plenary

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ECMWF-WWRP/THORPEX Workshop: Some Highlights

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Polar Verification

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Figure courtesy of Mio Matsueda (Univ. Oxford, JMA)

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RPStochastic Physics in the Polar Regions

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Peter Bauer (ECMWF)

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Benefits of High Resolution

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David Bromwich (Byrd Polar Institute)

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Impact of Polar Meso-scale Storms

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Ian Renfrew (University of East Anglia)

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Teleconnections

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RMSE MSLP DJF D+10-D+14 RMSE MSLP DJF D+10-D+14

Arctic RelaxationControl Integration

Jung et al. (AWI)

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Teleconnections

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MSLP DJF D+10-D+14

MSLP SON D+10-D+14MSLP JJA D+10-D+14

MSLP MAM D+10-D+14

Jung et al. (AWI)

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Teleconnections: Flow-dependence

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Jung et al. (AWI)

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ECMWF-WWRP/THORPEX Workshop: Selected Recommendations

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Development of coupled prediction systems (by 2018)Develop integrated approach to PBL parametrizations (testing with LES)Quantify predictive limits of sea ice (various aspects)Engage shipping community (e.g. obs in North-East Passage)Summer school on Polar PredictionWorkshops (e.g. mixed-phase clouds, sea ice prediction)

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1st YOPP Planning Meeting

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23 participantsPurpose

Review and revise existing plans (prioritize)Identify key partners

OutcomeRevised and expanded YOPP planList of key partners

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1st YOPP Planning Meeting: Some Outcomes

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A total of 51 action itemsAlign PPP with MOSAiCYOPP period: mid 2017-mid 2019Carry out pre-YOPP experiments with SHEBA dataProvide YOTC-type data setObservations: Engage commercial and scientific communitiesVerification: Emphasis on sea ice verificationEducation: YOPP summer school (2015?)Treat teleconnections as a separate PPP flagship topic

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WCRP Polar Climate Predictability Initiative

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Leads: Ted Shepherd and Cecilia Bitz

Improve knowledge and understanding of past polar climate variability: Julia Jones and Sarah Gille

Assess reanalyses in polar regions: Dave Bromwich and Jim Renwick

Assess performance of CMIP5 models in polar regions: Hugues Goosse and Jennifer Key

Model error in polar regions: Gunilla Svensson and Markus Jochum

Improve understanding: of polar climate predictability: John Fyfe and Ed Hawkins

Improve understanding how jets and non-zonal circulation influences the Southern Hemisphere: Marilyn Raphael and Gareth Marshall

Jointly with PPP Jointly with PPP

Jointly with PPP

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Next steps

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Month MilestonesAug 2013 YOPP brochure

Oct 2013 YOPP planning draft document

Oct 2013 4th steering group meeting (Boulder)

Dec 2013 Deadline for special issue on polar prediction in QJ

Spring 2014 2nd YOPP planning meeting

2015 YOPP summer school

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Issues

Contributions to the Trust Fund

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Conclusions

PPP is on full steamICO to be established very soonVery successful workshopsLong-term funding of PPP is an issue

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Thank you!

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Presentation of WWRP-PPP

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Date Meeting5-9 Nov 2012 WGNE, Toulouse, France

4-7 Feb 2013 CLiC SSG, Potsdam, Germany

18-19 Mar 2013 THORPEX HIW planning meeting, Karlsruhe, Germany

15-19 April 2013 WGNE workshop on systematic model error, Exeter, UK

24 April 2013 Parliamentarian Lunch Event, Brussels, Belgium

5-6 May 2013 IICWG workshop, Bremen, Germany

22-23 May 2013 PSTG-3, Paris, France

12-14 Jun 2013 THORPEX GIFS-TIGGE Working Group, Exeter, UK

24-27 Jun 2013 ECMWF-WWRP/THORPEX Polar Prediction Workshop, Reading, UK

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Eurasian Snow Cover and NAO

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Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP)

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Aims: Intensive observational and modelling period to

advance polar prediction capabilities Research into forecast-stakeholder interactionEnhanced verificationEducation of students and early career scientists

(APECS)

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YOPP: Time line

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Polar Verification

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Peter Bauer (ECMWF)