NJ Future Redevelopment Forum 2017 Lund

Understanding your Market for RedevelopmentData Analysis for Downtown RevitalizationApproach and Lessons Learned

NJ Future Redevelopment ForumMarch 10, 2017

Tina Lund, AICPPrincipalUrbanomics, Inc.

Understanding your Market for Redevelopment NJ Future Redevelopment Forum

PENNVAL ROAD GREEN TECHNOLOGY PARK

Project Approach: Madison Downtown Revitalization Study

Kickoff and Review of Existing/Ongoing Plans & Studies

Inventories and Market Analysis: Unmet Existing and Forecasted Demand

Planning, Zoning, and Development Context

Gateway, Design, Branding and Wayfinding

Draft Recommendations and Final Report

Ongoing: Community and Stakeholder Engagement



Inventory of Existing BusinessesInventory and Mapping of Off-street & On-street

Parking Supply and RegulationsOverview of Community and Regional EconomyEstimation of Unmet Existing and Future Demand

Inventories and Market Analysis: Unmet Existing and Forecasted Demand



Define Existing Conditions Confirm or Refute Perceptions

High numbers of vacancies Substandard share of retail storefronts

Identify Opportunities for Improvement Unmet demand Business Mix Real Estate

Purpose of Market Analysis



Study Area



CoStar REIS Local MLS

and Brokers Garden State

MLS Keller Williams

Data Sources: Real Estate

Source: CoStar.com Retail Trends



US Census American Community

Survey Longitudinal Employer

Household Dataset

ESRI Business Analyst Online

Data Sources: Demographics and Consumer Expenditures

Source: US Census Bureau’s OnTheMap Longitudinal Employer Household Dataset

Employment Heat Map Madison Borough, 2014



Reference USA ESRI Business

Analyst Online Fieldwork

Data Sources: Retail and Other Business Activity

Source: ESRI Business Analyst, Retail Marketplace data

$50.3

$23.6

$17.9

$17.4

$11.1

$6.7

$4.2

$1.5

$1.5

$0.2

$(1.7)

$(11.6)

$(18.9)

$(50.5)

$(60.0) $(40.0) $(20.0) $- $20.0 $40.0 $60.0

Motor Vehicle & Parts Dealers

Clothing & Clothing Accessories Stores

Restaurants/Other Eating Places

Bldg Materials, Garden Equip. & Supply Stores

Gasoline Stations

Furniture & Home Furnishings Stores

Electronics & Appliance Stores

Miscellaneous Store Retailers

Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book & Music Stores

Special Food Services

Drinking Places - Alcoholic Beverages

Beer, Wine & Liquor Stores

Health & Personal Care Stores

Grocery Stores

$Millions

Surplus/Incoming Leakage/Outgoing



Data Sources: Business Mix

Source: ESRI Business Analyst, Retail Marketplace data

Downtown Madison Madison 5-Mile Chatham

Florham Park Morristown Maplewood

Retail Trade 17.0% 13.8% 12.7% 11.2% 7.7% 8.5% 13.2%Other Services (except Public Administration) 13.9% 11.9% 10.0% 13.6% 7.6% 10.1% 15.6%Professional, Scientific & Tech Services 10.4% 10.9% 12.5% 12.3% 18.3% 15.5% 10.2%Finance & Insurance 9.1% 8.0% 8.2% 8.5% 13.9% 9.4% 5.1%Accommodation & Food Services 9.1% 7.0% 5.3% 5.3% 3.7% 7.0% 5.9%Construction 7.8% 8.4% 8.1% 7.6% 5.5% 5.0% 6.7%

Public Administration 6.1% 4.8% 3.6% 2.2% 1.4% 6.6% 1.7%Health Care & Social Assistance 5.7% 7.3% 9.9% 8.8% 14.7% 13.3% 10.9%Administrative & Support & Waste Management & Remediation Services 4.8% 6.6% 5.2% 3.1% 5.8% 3.2% 3.5%Real Estate, Rental & Leasing 4.3% 4.4% 4.8% 4.8% 4.1% 5.4% 4.0%

Unclassified Establishments 3.0% 3.9% 5.0% 5.7% 4.8% 5.4% 6.1%Educational Services 2.6% 3.6% 2.9% 5.0% 1.5% 1.9% 4.2%Transportation & Warehousing 2.2% 2.2% 2.0% 2.2% 1.5% 2.1% 2.5%Manufacturing 1.3% 1.4% 2.7% 3.9% 2.5% 1.4% 2.1%

Wholesale Trade 0.9% 1.6% 2.9% 1.8% 3.2% 1.4% 3.5%Information 0.9% 2.4% 2.1% 1.5% 1.3% 1.9% 2.0%Arts, Entertainment & Recreation 0.9% 1.9% 2.0% 2.2% 2.4% 1.8% 2.7%Management of Companies & Enterprises 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1%Source: ESRI Business Analyst Online



Inventory of Existing Businesses

17.0%

13.9%

10.4%

9.1% 9.1%

7.8%

6.1% 5.7%4.8%

4.3%

3.0% 2.6% 2.2%1.3% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9%

18.9%

14.8%

18.0%

7.8%

14.3%

4.5%

0.0%

7.0%

0.8%1.6%

0.8%

3.3%

0.0%0.8% 0.8% 1.2%

5.3%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

18.0%

20.0% ESRI BAO

FIELD COUNT



Pros and Cons of Data Free and Pay-Based Sources

Pros Expedient Cost Effective Universal Basis for Comparison

Things to Take into Account Study Area Alignment Sample Size Data Lag



Final Thought

Data analysis is invaluable to any redevelopment assessment

BUTdo not accept any source

without question—CHECK YOUR DATA!!

NJ Future Redevelopment Forum 2017 Lund

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