NCIF 11/17/071 Congestion Management: Leverage & Finance Steve Lockwood PB Consult.
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Transcript of NCIF 11/17/071 Congestion Management: Leverage & Finance Steve Lockwood PB Consult.
NCIF 11/17/071
Congestion Management:Congestion Management:Leverage & Finance Leverage & Finance
Steve LockwoodSteve Lockwood
PB ConsultPB Consult
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Expansion of Congestion/Loss of ServiceExpansion of Congestion/Loss of Service
Traffic Congestion and Reliability: Trends and Advanced Strategies for Congestion Mitigation FHWA, 2005
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Causes of Performance Loss:Causes of Performance Loss:Not Just CapacityNot Just Capacity
Bottlenecks 40%
Traffic Incidents 25%
Bad Weather 15%
Work Zones 10%
Poor Signal Timing 5%Special Events 5%
Bottlenecks 40%
Traffic Incidents 25%
Bad Weather 15%
Work Zones 10%
Poor Signal Timing 5%Special Events 5%
Growth in Demand
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Why Congestion Management is as Why Congestion Management is as Important as Capacity (Reliability)Important as Capacity (Reliability)
2007 Annual Mobility Report, TAMU
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Congestion Management StrategiesCongestion Management Strategies
1.1. New Capacity (50% of delay today) New Capacity (50% of delay today)
2.2. Systems Operations (Supply Systems Operations (Supply Management): re “incidents” (50% of Management): re “incidents” (50% of delay)delay)
3.3. Pricing (Demand Management): (percent Pricing (Demand Management): (percent of delay depends on extent of of delay depends on extent of applications) applications)
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Three Strategies for CongestionThree Strategies for Congestion
New CapacityNew CapacitySystemsSystems
ManagementManagement
PricingPricing
Facility-by facilityFacility-by facility Network-wideNetwork-wide Facility or Facility or NetworkNetwork
Long cycleLong cycle Short-termShort-term Medium termMedium term
Cover some costs (toll)Cover some costs (toll) Low costLow cost May cover costsMay cover costs
Context-constrainedContext-constrained No impactsNo impacts Policy Policy constrainedconstrained
Low C/ELow C/E High C/EHigh C/E Med C/EMed C/E
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SO&M COMPONENTSO&M COMPONENT CONGESTION/DELAYCONGESTION/DELAY SAFETYSAFETY
1. Ramp Metering1. Ramp Metering -9-11% total delay-9-11% total delay
2. Dynamic Messaging2. Dynamic Messaging -0.5% incident delay-0.5% incident delay
3. Variable Speed Limits3. Variable Speed Limits -5% total delay-5% total delay -5% fatalities-5% fatalities
4. Integrated Corridors4. Integrated Corridors -10% total delay -10% total delay
5. Incident Management5. Incident ManagementDetectionDetection -4.5% incident duration-4.5% incident duration -5% fatalities-5% fatalities
Surveillance CamerasSurveillance Cameras -4.5% incident duration-4.5% incident duration -5% fatalities-5% fatalities
On-Call Service PatrolsOn-Call Service Patrols -25-35% incident duration -25-35% incident duration -10% fatalities-10% fatalities
All CombinedAll Combined Multiplicative reductionMultiplicative reduction -10% fatalities-10% fatalities
6. Weather Management 6. Weather Management -3% total delay (Northern)-3% total delay (Northern)
7. 511 only7. 511 only -3-5% total delay, rural only-3-5% total delay, rural only
8. VII8. VII --12% total delay12% total delay
2. Systems Operations Does Make a 2. Systems Operations Does Make a DifferenceDifference
Future options for the National System of Interstate and Defense Highways, NCHRP, 2007
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Leverage: Long-term BenefitsLeverage: Long-term Benefits(Interstate example)(Interstate example)
Delay (billions of hrs)Delay (billions of hrs) SafetySafetyScenarioScenario CapacityCapacity IncidentIncident TotalTotal SavingsSavings FatalsFatals SavingsSavings
Deployment Deployment TrendsTrends 949949 203203 1,1531,153 -5.6%-5.6% 195K195K -0.7%-0.7%
Aggressive Aggressive DeploymentDeployment
685685 111111 796796 -34.8%-34.8% 179K179K -8.9%-8.9%
Future options for the National System of Interstate and Defense Highways, NCHRP, 2007
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Number of Metropolitan Areas Providing Arterial Travel Time, Speed and Condition I nformation in Real-time to I ncident Management, Freeway Management, Arterial Management or Public Transit Agencies
Number of Metropolitan Areas Surveyed / Returned Survey
Incident Mgt. Freeway Mgt. Arterial Mgt. Public Transit
107 / 106 44 36 32 25
Progress is Slow: Could Use an Progress is Slow: Could Use an IncentiveIncentive
Data Year
% of Deployment
1997 %
1999 14 %
2000 15%
2002 21%
2004 32%
2005 35%
Freeway miles
covered by surveillance
cameras
2006 35%
Data Year
% of Deployment
1997 16%
1999 22%
2000 24%
2002 29%
2004 35%
2005 38%
Freeway miles with real-time
traffic data collection
technologies
2006 38%
Data Year % of Deployment
1997 30%
1999 35%
2000 40%
2002 46%
2004 45%
2005 48%
Freeway miles
covered by on-call service patrols
2006 46%
FHWA Deployment Tracking
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Barriers to Improved OperationsBarriers to Improved Operations
Legacy Culture and organizationsLegacy Culture and organizations
Authorizing EnvironmentAuthorizing Environment
Fragmented jurisdictionsFragmented jurisdictions
Trained PersonnelTrained Personnel
Dedicated Funding (now 1 % national = $1-2B)Dedicated Funding (now 1 % national = $1-2B)
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Funding Methods to Encourage Increased Funding Methods to Encourage Increased Systems OperationsSystems Operations
Planning RequirementsPlanning Requirements Performance Reporting (reduced OversightPerformance Reporting (reduced Oversight Technology investment Higher funding match for Technology investment Higher funding match for
operationsoperations Dedicated program fundsDedicated program funds Off- the top funding by performanceOff- the top funding by performance Service Target-based fundingService Target-based funding Deliberate Interstate PolicyDeliberate Interstate Policy
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3. Pricing :3. Pricing :Tolls Account for 5% of Highway Revenue Tolls Account for 5% of Highway Revenue
Other Dedicated Taxes include dedicated sales and property taxes and value capture revenues
General Fund Revenues include income taxes, property taxes, general sales taxes, other valorem taxes
Last year with data available at all levels of government is 2004. Latest information as of January 2006.
(1) Calendar Year (2) Fiscal Year
Source of Revenue (US$ in billion)
Federal (1)
State (2)
Local (1)
TotalShare per Revenue Source
Motor Fuel Taxes 26.5 29.2 1.1 56.8 43%
Vehicle Fees and Taxes 3.2 16.8 0.9 20.9 16%
Tolls 0 5.6 0.9 6.6 5%
Other Dedicated Taxes 0.3 3.5 11.6 15.4 12%
General Fund Revenues 2.0 7.4 21.7 31.1 24%
Total 32.1 62.5 36.1 130.7 100%
Share per Level of Government 25% 48% 28% 100% 100%
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The Changing Landscape of Highway Finance in the US, Benouaich, PB Consult
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3. Pricing (toll) Projects – How much?3. Pricing (toll) Projects – How much?
Greenfields Opportunities?Greenfields Opportunities? Greenfields feasibility and mixing?Greenfields feasibility and mixing? Non-Greenfields = NHS (where the congestion Non-Greenfields = NHS (where the congestion
is)is)• Conversion Acceptability (HOT path)?Conversion Acceptability (HOT path)?
• Constraints where lanes additions involvedConstraints where lanes additions involved
Where the Action is: The Nation Highway System Where the Action is: The Nation Highway System Network = 162K miles and 45% of VMT (28% Network = 162K miles and 45% of VMT (28% is Interstate) is Interstate)
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Current Status of Toll Project Current Status of Toll Project DevelopmentDevelopment
Not including TTC
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Current Status of Toll Project Current Status of Toll Project DevelopmentDevelopment
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The Next Decade: Toll Role?The Next Decade: Toll Role?
Current toll revenues $7BCurrent toll revenues $7B Current highway revenues $140BCurrent highway revenues $140B
Trend based Trend based total expenditure for new capacitytotal expenditure for new capacity $30-$40 (higher $30-$40 (higher than trend)than trend)
Trend-based Trend-based toll expenditures for new capacitytoll expenditures for new capacity $8-$10B $8-$10B (exclusive of concession payments)(exclusive of concession payments)
Large Growth states 50%-plusLarge Growth states 50%-plus
Trend-based toll Trend-based toll revenues revenues based on Trend 15-17B (exclusive based on Trend 15-17B (exclusive of concession payments)of concession payments)
Trend-based total Trend-based total revenues revenues $165-$170B$165-$170B
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Barriers to Toll/Pricing DevelopmentBarriers to Toll/Pricing Development
Resistance to ConversionResistance to Conversion Need for network level developmentNeed for network level development Concern for network effects (diversion)Concern for network effects (diversion) Consideration of Equity (dual system?)Consideration of Equity (dual system?) Stakeholder/User control (state, local)Stakeholder/User control (state, local) Politics of excess funds investmentPolitics of excess funds investment Credibility of owner/manager with major fundsCredibility of owner/manager with major funds
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Methods to Encourage Greater Use of Methods to Encourage Greater Use of Pricing for Congestion ManagementPricing for Congestion Management
Congestion management targets (to Congestion management targets (to foster pricing)foster pricing)
Interstate Conversion ForgivenessInterstate Conversion Forgiveness Service Target funding with incentive to Service Target funding with incentive to
meetmeet Credit enhancement, etc.Credit enhancement, etc. Aggressive match baitAggressive match bait Deliberate Interstate PolicyDeliberate Interstate Policy
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Vision: Vehicle-Infrastructure Integration Vision: Vehicle-Infrastructure Integration Mixes VMT pricing and Advanced OperationsMixes VMT pricing and Advanced Operations
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CharacteristicCharacteristic 2020thth Century Century 2121stst Century CenturyOrg. ModelOrg. Model Gov’t. DepartmentGov’t. Department Authority (enterprise)Authority (enterprise)
Management styleManagement style Bureaucratic, stable Bureaucratic, stable EntrepreneurialEntrepreneurial
MissionMission Develop systemDevelop system Meet service expectationsMeet service expectations
ResourcesResources Tax politicsTax politics User fees/capital marketUser fees/capital market
Consumer signalsConsumer signals Indirect onlyIndirect only Organized customers/pricesOrganized customers/prices
FocusFocus System DevelopmentSystem Development Systems OperationsSystems Operations
ServiceshedServiceshed Political jurisdictionPolitical jurisdiction Consumer orbit/marketConsumer orbit/market
PartnersPartners Legislative authorityLegislative authority Users, MarketsUsers, Markets
Perf. CriteriaPerf. Criteria On budget/schedule On budget/schedule Customer satisfactionCustomer satisfaction
TechnologyTechnology Procurement-drivenProcurement-driven Best availableBest available
Needed: New Institutional EvolutionNeeded: New Institutional Evolution