NATO CAX Forum 2016

www.msett.co.uk

NATO CAX Forum 2016

Col (ret) Konstantinos Tsiakalos

Managing Director

Company Profile

MSETT is an innovative company, which was founded by CAX

experts, military retired personnel and high level software

developers.

Our vision is to provide high quality products and services to

military, civilian, security and healthcare agencies in private

companies as well as national and international organizations,

worldwide.

MSETT’s personnel and international partners can plan,

organize, prepare, execute and provide results and conclusions for a wide range of CAX applications and War

gaming

CAX and gaming methodology can be visualized in order to

provide an exact and realistic picture of scenarios

MSETT is using a wide range of simulation models and support

tools and their methodological combination provide cost –time effective training

NATO CAX Forum 2016

Constructive Simulation & Operations

Constructive Simulation Databases

Main Modules

• Weapon systems and advanced systems representation

• Networks, targets, ammunition

• Communications: Telephony, satellite, cell telephony, radars, jammers, internet(?)

• Maps, graphics, meteorological data

• Entities - Units realistic description

• Facilities and infrastructure

• Logistics support systems and supply chain management representation

• Human capabilities

• Scenario libraries and pre - developed databases

NATO CAX Forum 2016

• Land (all echelon

levels)

• Naval

• Air – Air Defense

• Joint

• Logistics

• Special Forces

• OOTW

(Operations Other

than War)

Military operations Usually

Simulated in CAX

What we don’t usually simulate in CAX

NATO CAX Forum 2016

Political and Social effects from military actions or operations

Social and financial conditions (including social networking and

crises), before, during and after the operations

Cyber security operations and their influence and effects

High level leadership capabilities and vulnerabilities

Mass Media role, influence and effects

A significant set of human characteristics, such as:

Moral and psychological characteristics

Educational and training level

Social and financial background of military personnel

Physical and mental capabilities

Casualties recovery processes

Leadership and inspiration in low echelon levels

Religion and tradition

Ethics and customs of population in operational areas

Question: Do we want high level of realism in CAX?

Operational Box and Comprehensive Thinking

NATO CAX Forum 2016

Definition: Operational Box is a limited

area, part of a major operational area,

which is considered as a unique space

that all human life activities are simulated

through constructive simulation models

(or models federations) in order to

represent in the most realistic way,

military and OTW operations and their

effects in the area described and, under

given assumptions, to the theatre of

operations.

In an Operational Box, there is a map defined (it can be a whole city,

metropolis or any other state structure) and all kinds of human activities

are simulated by a daily structured model, which includes social,

financial, security, military, mass media, technology and administration

actions. We use Operational Box as the basis for simulate a full

operation considering a set of behaviors and conditions

Simulate Human Behavior Modules

• Describe human characteristics by constructing / modelling “Human

Weapon Systems (HWS)” that affect the enemy and friendly forces

and increase or decrease their fighting capability

• HWS, can affect positively or negatively the military personnel that is

executing an operation, following a stochastic process for describing

the operational ability of an entity (from a single soldier to an

aggregated unit)

• Features that can be simulated as HWS in the most known

Constructive Simulation Models:

• Moral

• Training and Educational level

• Leadership

• Physical and mental characteristics

NATO CAX Forum 2016

Simulate Conditions

• The realistic conditions in which a military operation is taking place is an

extremely important issue and they can be represented as parameters that

affect the operations, like the meteorological or CBRN data in constructive

simulation models

• Conditions that may affect military operations may be:

• Political Status of a state structure (level of freedom, working and legal

conditions, administration system, goods distribution system, etc.)

• Total Status: Social, religious, traditional, educational, financial

characteristics of the population (mostly civilians) that live and work in the

Operational Box

• Media Status: Social networking and Mass Media effects in both the

population and military personnel

• High Level Leadership Status and inspiration

• Population Logistics Status: features and daily life of the population

regarding the supply chain management of the Operational Box

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HWS & CAX Scenario Building

Based on scenario requirements we can describe the “global”

features and characteristics of the population, security, labor and

military personnel that have to be considered for meeting the CAX

objectives

Depending on the simulation model(s) that will be used for the CAX,

we decide which of the above and in which range will be

represented in the database that will be used in the CAX

Having in mind the relational dependencies of the simulation model

database and the way that a weapon system is being built, we

determine the HWS attributes and behavioral procedures during the

run of simulation

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Realistic Conditions & Database Development

Conditions Description

(Specified Effects) Results in Simulation

• Political structure status

Influence: Red, Blue, Grey

• Total Status Influence: Friendly,

Enemy, Neutral, Zero

• Media Status Influence:

Supportive, Thoughtful, Adverse,

Unpredictable

• High Level Leadership Status

Influence: Inspiring, Reliable,

Trustful, Irresponsible

• Population Logistics Status

Influence: Market Full,

Controllable Condition,

Deficiency, Complete Lack

• Every red indication is affecting the local population of the Operational Box negatively and according to the scenario objectives may be supportive or non supportive to the military operations

• Blue indication describes positive influence to the Operational Box population which usually assist troops for executing a successful operation

• Green indicator describes unstable conditions that can be managed by carefully planning and proper acting

• Other color indicator is expressing insecurity and may lead to unpredictable effects

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Effects and Side Effects

Effects

Population status and military personnel behavior inside an Operational Box can explicitly translate the expected results of an operation, considering a significant set of human nature features and characteristics

The results of an operation can be highly uncontrollable and irrational activities can destroy any planning, this fact enrich simulation with a remarkable realistic proportion

Military leaders will have the chance to face an environment very close to the real one, they can even understand how the local culture of the area of operations may affect their activities

Planners have the chance to test more parameters and estimate timelines and milestones of an operation in a different way, taking in consideration irrationality, which may lead to more efficient planning

• When just one model is used for representing an Operational Box, results may not be as convenient as expected

• Models’ federations and distributed simulation is the tool that can reliably support this method and provide useful and realistic training

• There is a need to adapt comprehensive approach and model it. We have to estimate the maximum number of parameters, for preventing negative training which most of times is unavoidable in CAX, especially those that involve heterogeneous personnel for conducting the exercise

• OSE and OCE roles need to be reconsidered for supporting a closer to reality perspective for training using simulation

NATO CAX Forum 2016

Side Effects

MSETT’s Adventure

• Smart and efficient use of simulation in CAX

executing phase is an issue that MSETT personnel has

faced several times and many “tricks” were used for

supporting international clients that couldn’t realize

constructive simulation capabilities

• Many times, during scenario building and databases

development the need for realistic simulation was

leading to mistakes that redirected exercises in

unproductive paths

• The idea of simulating human behavior and global

conditions in a CAX with the model(s) used for it and

not by role playing or any other real simulation tricks

was accepted with great enthusiasm by our clients,

but the lack or interoperability between the models

them selves and C2 – C4 systems, has been proven

a serious inconvenience for developing a fast and

reliable method

• On the other hand MSETT personnel was triggered by

this fact and tried to overcome the difficulties by

searching for efficient and simple solutions

• MSETT personnel has managed to work with

constructive simulation models in a way that realism

level is high enough and Training Audience get

added value services

NATO CAX Forum 2016

The End …

NATO CAX Forum 2016