NATO CAX Forum 2016

www.msett.co.uk

NATO CAX Forum 2016

Col (ret) Konstantinos TsiakalosManaging Director

NATO CAX Forum 2016

Company ProfileMSETT is an innovative company, which was founded by CAX experts, military retired personnel and high level software developers. Our vision is to provide high quality products and services to military, civilian, security and healthcare agencies in private companies as well as national and international organizations, worldwide. MSETT’s personnel and international partners can plan, organize, prepare, execute and provide results and conclusions for a wide range of CAX applications and War gamingCAX and gaming methodology can be visualized in order to provide an exact and realistic picture of scenarios MSETT is using a wide range of simulation models and support tools and their methodological combination provide cost –time effective training

Constructive Simulation & OperationsConstructive Simulation DatabasesMain Modules• Weapon systems and advanced

systems representation• Networks, targets, ammunition• Communications: Telephony, satellite,

cell telephony, radars, jammers, internet(?)

• Maps, graphics, meteorological data• Entities - Units realistic description• Facilities and infrastructure• Logistics support systems and supply

chain management representation• Human capabilities• Scenario libraries and pre - developed

databases

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• Land (all echelon levels)

• Naval • Air – Air Defense• Joint • Logistics• Special Forces• OOTW

(Operations Other than War)

Military operations Usually Simulated in CAX

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What we don’t usually simulate in CAXPolitical and Social effects from military actions or operationsSocial and financial conditions (including social networking and crises), before, during and after the operationsCyber security operations and their influence and effectsHigh level leadership capabilities and vulnerabilities Mass Media role, influence and effectsA significant set of human characteristics, such as:

Moral and psychological characteristicsEducational and training levelSocial and financial background of military personnelPhysical and mental capabilitiesCasualties recovery processesLeadership and inspiration in low echelon levelsReligion and tradition Ethics and customs of population in operational areas

Question: Do we want high level of realism in CAX?

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Operational Box and Comprehensive ThinkingDefinition: Operational Box is a limited area, part of a major operational area, which is considered as a unique space that all human life activities are simulated through constructive simulation models (or models federations) in order to represent in the most realistic way, military and OTW operations and their effects in the area described and, under given assumptions, to the theatre of operations.

In an Operational Box, there is a map defined (it can be a whole city, metropolis or any other state structure) and all kinds of human

activities are simulated by a daily structured model, which includes social, financial, security, military, mass media, technology and administration actions. We use Operational Box as the basis for

simulate a full operation considering a set of behaviors and conditions

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Simulate Human Behavior Modules

• Describe human characteristics by constructing / modelling “Human Weapon Systems (HWS)” that affect the enemy and friendly forces and increase or decrease their fighting capability

• HWS, can affect positively or negatively the military personnel that is executing an operation, following a stochastic process for describing the operational ability of an entity (from a single soldier to an aggregated unit)

• Features that can be simulated as HWS in the most known Constructive Simulation Models:

• Moral• Training and Educational level• Leadership• Physical and mental characteristics

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Simulate Conditions• The realistic conditions in which a military operation is taking place is an

extremely important issue and they can be represented as parameters that affect the operations, like the meteorological or CBRN data in constructive simulation models

• Conditions that may affect military operations may be: • Political Status of a state structure (level of freedom, working and legal

conditions, administration system, goods distribution system, etc.)• Total Status: Social, religious, traditional, educational, financial

characteristics of the population (mostly civilians) that live and work in the Operational Box

• Media Status: Social networking and Mass Media effects in both the population and military personnel

• High Level Leadership Status and inspiration• Population Logistics Status: features and daily life of the population

regarding the supply chain management of the Operational Box

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HWS & CAX Scenario BuildingBased on scenario requirements we can describe the “global” features and characteristics of the population, security, labor and military personnel that have to be considered for meeting the CAX objectivesDepending on the simulation model(s) that will be used for the CAX, we decide which of the above and in which range will be represented in the database that will be used in the CAXHaving in mind the relational dependencies of the simulation model database and the way that a weapon system is being built, we determine the HWS attributes and behavioral procedures during the run of simulation

Realistic Conditions & Database

DevelopmentConditions Description

(Specified Effects) Results in Simulation• Political structure status

Influence: Red, Blue, Grey• Total Status Influence: Friendly,

Enemy, Neutral, Zero• Media Status Influence:

Supportive, Thoughtful, Adverse, Unpredictable

• High Level Leadership Status Influence: Inspiring, Reliable, Trustful, Irresponsible

• Population Logistics Status Influence: Market Full, Controllable Condition, Deficiency, Complete Lack

• Every red indication is affecting the local population of the Operational Box negatively and according to the scenario objectives may be supportive or non supportive to the military operations

• Blue indication describes positive influence to the Operational Box population which usually assist troops for executing a successful operation

• Green indicator describes unstable conditions that can be managed by carefully planning and proper acting

• Other color indicator is expressing insecurity and may lead to unpredictable effects

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Effects and Side EffectsEffects

Population status and military personnel behavior inside an Operational Box can explicitly translate the expected results of an operation, considering a significant set of human nature features and characteristics

The results of an operation can be highly uncontrollable and irrational activities can destroy any planning, this fact enrich simulation with a remarkable realistic proportion

Military leaders will have the chance to face an environment very close to the real one, they can even understand how the local culture of the area of operations may affect their activities

Planners have the chance to test more parameters and estimate timelines and milestones of an operation in a different way, taking in consideration irrationality, which may lead to more efficient planning

• When just one model is used for representing an Operational Box, results may not be as convenient as expected

• Models’ federations and distributed simulation is the tool that can reliably support this method and provide useful and realistic training

• There is a need to adapt comprehensive approach and model it. We have to estimate the maximum number of parameters, for preventing negative training which most of times is unavoidable in CAX, especially those that involve heterogeneous personnel for conducting the exercise

• OSE and OCE roles need to be reconsidered for supporting a closer to reality perspective for training using simulation

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Side Effects

MSETT’s Adventure• Smart and efficient use of simulation in CAX

executing phase is an issue that MSETT personnel has faced several times and many “tricks” were used for supporting international clients that couldn’t realize constructive simulation capabilities

• Many times, during scenario building and databases development the need for realistic simulation was leading to mistakes that redirected exercises in unproductive paths

• The idea of simulating human behavior and global conditions in a CAX with the model(s) used for it and not by role playing or any other real simulation tricks was accepted with great enthusiasm by our clients, but the lack or interoperability between the models them selves and C2 – C4 systems, has been proven a serious inconvenience for developing a fast and reliable method

• On the other hand MSETT personnel was triggered by this fact and tried to overcome the difficulties by searching for efficient and simple solutions

• MSETT personnel has managed to work with constructive simulation models in a way that realism level is high enough and Training Audience get added value services

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The End …

NATO CAX Forum 2016