Short rains harvests Short dry spell Reduced milk yields Increased HH Food Stocks migrations Land preparation

Planting/Weeding Long rai Calving Rate Milk Yields Increase Breeding period

Long rains harvests Along dry spell and

preparation Increased HH Food Stocks Kidding (Sept) Migrations Herd separations

Short rains Planting/weeding High birth rates Wedding

National Drought Management Authority WAJIR COUNTY

DROUGHT EARLY WARNING BULLETIN FOR JULY 2021

Early Warning Phase Classification

Livelihood Zone Phase Trend

Pastoral Alarm Stable

Agro-Pastoral Alert Worsening

Informal Employment Alert Stable

County Alert Worsening

Biophysical Indicators value Worsening

Rainfall (% of Normal) 0.0 80 -120

VCI-3Month 27 >35

Forecasts (VCI) 34 >35

Forecasts (SM) - <=0.6

Production indicators Value Normal

Livestock Body Condition Poor Below normal

Crop production Poor Good

Milk production 2.5 >3-4litres

Livestock Migration Pattern Not normal

Normal

Livestock deaths (from drought)

No death

No death

Access Indicators Value Normal

Terms of Trade (ToT) 50 >70

Milk consumption 1.1 >3

Return Distance to water source

8.0 <5 Km

CSI 8.2 <10

EW JULY PHASE 2021

Drought Situation & EW Phase Classification Biophysical Indicators Rainfall Report. In the month under review, the County remained generally dry. The August 2021 weather outlook indicates that the County will likely be dry and sunny. Vegetation Condition: Moderate vegetation condition was reported in the County. All sub-counties indicated moderate VCI unlike the previous month where WajirNorth and Tarbaj recorded Normal Vegetation Deficit. Social Economic indicators Production indicators;

Livestock body condition ranges between fair poor, but on a worsening trend as the vegetation condition continues to deteriorate.

Milk production was lower than the LTA.

Migration within and outside the county was reported

Cases of livestock diseases such CCPP, CBPP, PPR and LSD were reported. Access indicators:

Terms of trade is unfavorable when compared to normal

There was decrease in milk consumption.

Return distance to water sources increased compared to last month.

Grazing distance to water sources increased due to diminishing rangeland resources.

Livestock prices are below normal Utilization Indicators:

The proportion of children at risk of malnutrition slightly increased from 18.6 percent in June to 18.8 percent in the month under review. This could be attributed to decreased milk consumption.

The number of COVID-19 and Kala-Azar cases currently stands at 106 and 274 respectively.

Short rains harvests

Short dry spell

Reduced milk yields

Increased HH Food Stocks

migrations

Land preparation

Planting/Weeding

Long rai Calving Rate

Milk Yields Increase

Breeding period

Long rains harvests

A long dry spelnd

preparation

Increased HH Food Stocks

Kidding (Sept)

Migrations

Herd separations

Short rains

Planting/weeding

High birth rates

Wedding

Terms of Trade are favourable, stable maize prices and increased trekking

distance to water source. Slight decrease in milk consumption as compared to

previous month.

1.0 CLIMATIC CONDITION

1.1 Rainfall performance

During the month of July, no rains were received across the livelihood zones. The county remained generally dry throughout the month. Occasional cool and cloudy conditions dominated over the county during the month.

1.2 Amount of rainfall and spatial Distribution No rains were received during the month under review. The County was generally dry and cloudy.

Figure 1: Rainfall and NDVI Average in July 2021

2.0 IMPACTS ON VEGETATION AND WATER 2.1 Vegetation Condition 2.1.1 Vegetation condition index (VCI) The county recorded a 3-month average VCI of 27.2, an indication of moderate vegetation deficit and 14 percent decrease on the observed VCI value in the previous month. The worsening vegetation situation across the county is due to poor regeneration of pasture and browse attributed to the depressed rainfall experienced during MAM 2021 long rains season. Massive in-migrations and dry temperature are exacerbating the deterioration of available rangeland resources in the county.

2.1.2 Vegetation Condition Index Forecast

Based on Sussex Vegetation Outlook, the 3-month VCI forecast indicates moderate vegetation deficit in the County with a score of 34. Wajir South and Wajir West sub-counties are projected to have the most deficits, followed by Eldas.

The vegetation condition is expected to deteriorate due to depletion of the little available browse and pasture.

Figure 2: VCI graph for the month of July 2021 Figure 3: VCI Matrix for July 2021

Figure 4: VCI forecast July 2021

2.1.2 Pasture

Pasture condition is generally poor across the livelihood zones. Almost 100 percent of the available pasture was estimated to be poor, with some areas in Wajir West, Eldas and Wajir South recording between poor to very poor.

When compared to similar previous periods, pasture is generally poor and below normal across the county. This is due to poor regeneration attributed to the depressed rainfall.

The available pasture is expected to last for one month due to in-migration and high temperature.

The quality and quantity of pasture is poor across the county.

Pasture condition varies according to livelihood zones, with some parts of Pastoral Livelihood Zone experiencing poor to very poor pasture.

2.1.3 Browse

Browse situation is poor in Pastoral Livelihood Zone. However, in Agro-Pastoral Livelihood Zone, the condition ranges between fair to poor.

Condition of browse in the county deteriorated when compared to the previous month. This is due to the below average rains received in the MAM 2021 long rains season.

Available browse is expected to last for one month due to massive in-migrations, especially in the Agro-Pastoral Livelihood Zone.

Agro Pastoral Livelihood Zone registered fair browse condition when compared to other livelihood zones.

The quality and quantity of browse oscillates between fair to poor across the county and is expected to deteriorate as we get into the dry spell.

2.2 Water Source 2.2.1 Sources

The main Water sources for both human and livestock use across all the livelihood zones are water pans, shallow wells and few boreholes.

In Wajir North and Tarbaj, water pans provide 60 percent of water for both domestic and livestock use while boreholes provide the remaining 40 percent. However, in Wajir South and Wajir West, boreholes are the main water sources in use and are 85-90 percent operational.

When compared to similar previous periods, water condition in the county remained the same. However, 80 percent of the water pans have already dried up and the remaining 20 percent are expected to last for one month.

Figure 5: Pasture Condition

2.2.2 Household access and Utilization

During the month under review, household return distance to water points remained the same as the previous month at 8km.

The reported distance in July 2021 was 38 percent above normal. This is attributed to the drying up of water pans and increased migration.

Average water consumption per person per day in Pastoral Livelihood Zone is below normal.

Water treatment is generally low across the county, with only 10 percent of the households treating their water before drinking (Integrated Nutrition Survey, July 2021).

2.2.3 Livestock access

Livestock grazing distance to water sources increased from 11.8km in June 2021 to 13.0km in the month under review. This is attributed to depletion of rangeland resources that resulted in livestock migration in search of forage owing to the poor performance of the long rains.

Current average grazing distance to water source is 19 percent below the short-term average and 15 percent higher than the wet year average distance.

Distance from grazing areas to water sources varies per ward and livelihood zones.

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Household water Search Distance Wajir County July 2021

NORMAL STA WET YEARS STADRY YEARS STA Year 2021

Figure 6: Household water search distance

Figure 7: Livestock grazing distance

3.0 PRODUCTION INDICATORS 3.1 Livestock production 3.1.1 Livestock Body Condition

The livestock body condition ranges between fair to poor on a deteriorating trend in all the livelihood zones. However, in some parts of Pastoral Livelihood Zone such as Lagbogol South, Habaswein, Ademasajida, Hadado/Athibohol, Arbajahan, Malkagufu, Batalu, Eldas and Dela wards, livestock are of poor body condition due to depletion of pastures and browse following an initial influx of livestock at the beginning of the season.

When compared to similar previous periods, the current condition has worsened due to the depressed rainfall which resulted in poor regeneration of pasture and low recharging of water sources.

In comparison to the previous month, the livestock body condition has worsened due to intensified livestock migration and depleting forage.

3.1.2 Livestock Diseases

There were reported cases of endemic livestock diseases such as Contagious caprine pleuropneumonia (CCPP), Peste des petit ruminants (PPR), Sheep and Goat Pox (SGP), tick paralysis, Contagious bovine pleuropneumonia (CBPP), Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) and trypanosomiasis. There is the need for continuous disease monitoring and ring vaccination in affected livelihood zones.

3.1.3 Milk Production

Average milk production per household per day in July 2021 remained the same as the previous month.

Available milk is derived from cattle, camel and small stocks across the county.

Current average milk production per household per day is nine percent lower than the long-term average.

The decline in milk production across the livelihood zones is as a result of the deteriorating livestock body condition and increased migrations in search of pastures across the livelihood zones.

3.2 Crop Production

The total area under rain-fed and irrigated crop production decreased significantly due to delayed onset of the below average long rains that led to a near total crop failure. Crop damages by pests and diseases were also reported though the impact was minimal.

0.00

2.00

4.00

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Am

ou

nt

in (

Lit

res)

Milk Production in Wajir County -July 2021

LTA (2018-2020) DRY YEAR

WET YEAR YEAR_2021

Figure 8: Milk production

4.0 MARKET PERFORMANCE

4.1. Livestock Marketing Cattle Prices

The price of a 4-year-old medium size bull increased from ksh 20,897 in June to Kshs 24,500 in the month of July 2021.

Observed price increase could be attributed to the recent Eidhul-Adha festive season which led to high demand for livestock.

The reported prices of cattle in the month under review were higher than the normal and wet year average prices.

Highest average prices were reported in the urban areas and lowest recorded in the rural areas.

4.1. 2 Small Ruminant (Goat price)

The current market prices for goats are 14 percent and seven percent below the previous year and long-term average prices respectively.

The below normal goat prices are attributed to the poor performance of the 2021 long rains that affected the livestock body condition due to poor forage regeneration.

However, when compared to the previous month, the prices in July 2021 have slightly increased due to the Eidul-Adha festivities.

The goat prices are projected to decline due to the weakening livestock body condition attributed to the increased trekking distance to grazing areas.

4.1.3 Camel price

The current average camel prices generally remained the same as the previous month at Ksh 31,000.

Figure 9: Cattle price Trend-July 2021

0

2000

4000

6000

Jan Feb March April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

Goat price in Wajir county-July 2021

Usual LTA Bad Seasons Good Seasons 2021

Figure 10: Goat prices trend

The current price is below the long-term and wet year average price.

The prices are expected to start declining due to the weakening body condition.

Highest prices were recorded in Wajir town and lowest reported in the rural areas.

4.2 Crop Price

4.2.1 Maize

An increase in maize prices was reported across all the major markets in the county where a kilogram of maize was purchased at an average price of ksh 70.

The prices were 27 and 32 percent above the previous year and the long-term average respectively.

The significant increase in maize prices is as a result of reduced supply in the market.

The highest prices were recorded in the rural areas and lowest recorded in the urban areas.

4.3 Terms of Trade (TOT).

The terms of trade (ToT) across the county were 50kg of maize, in July, compared to the long-term average of 70kg, approximately 29 percent below average.

The below average terms of trade were attributed to higher-than-normal maize prices and below average goat prices.

The below average Terms of Trade will limit poor households access to food due to reduced purchasing power.

Figure 11: Camel prices in July

Figure 12: Maize prices Trend

0

50

100

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Kilo

gra

ms

of

maiz

e

exch

an

ged

fo

r a g

oat

Average (2016-2020) 2020 2021

Figure 13: Terms of Trade Trend-July 2021

5.0 FOOD CONSUMPTION AND NUTRITION STATUS 5.1 Milk Consumption

The average milk consumption per household per day decreased from 1.4 litres in June 2021 to 1.1 litres in the month under review. This is attributed to reduced milk production resulting from poor livestock body condition and increased migration.

Milk consumption is expected to continue deteriorating as the dry spell continues.

Current average household milk consumption per household per day is below the long-term and wet years’ average.

5.2 Food Consumption Score

The proportion of households categorised as having poor, borderline and acceptable food consumption score stood at 6.1, 43.9 and 50.0 per cent respectively in the month of July 2021.

The slight increase in the proportion of households with poor food consumption from 7.9 in June 2021 to 6.1 in the month under review is attributed to the Eidhul-Adha festivities where animals are slaughtered through the Qurbani programme and the meat distributed among poor households.

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

LTA(2018-2020) WET YEAR DRY YEAR Year 2021

Figure 14: Current milk consumption against the LTA

18.7%45.0%

45.1%55.7%55.0%

36.3%44.3%

100.0%

0%

50%

100%

150%

Agro Pastoral Pastoral Pastoral All UrbanemploymentH

ou

seh

old

s (%

)

Wajir County FCS for July 2021

Poor Consumption Bordeline Acceptable

Figure 15: Food consumption Score by Livelihood zone

5.3 HEALTH AND NUTRITION STATUS 5.3.1 Nutrition Status

The proportion of children under five with moderate malnutrition increased slightly from 18.6 per cent in the previous month to 18.8 per cent in the month under review. This is attributed to decrease in milk consumption.

The number of children under-five with moderate malnutrition is likely to increase in the coming months due to reduced milk consumption attributed to depletion of pasture and browse. The nutrition situation was observed to be critical (17.9 percent) according to the integrated nutrition survey carried out in July 2021.

5.3.2 Health Status The leading causes of morbidity in the county are Upper Respiratory Tract Infections (URTI) and Diarrhoea for both children under the age of five years and general population. The number of COVID-19 positive cases as of 31st July 2021 stood at 106 with case fatality rate of 6.1 percent. There are currently 274 Kala-Azar (visceral leishmaniasis) cases in the County, with Wajir West and Eldas sub-counties as the most affected. The recently concluded Polio round two campaign reached a total of 178,633 children, representing 99 percent of the target population.

5.4 COPING STRATEGY INDEXES 5.4.1: Reduced coping strategy index (rCSI)

The mean CSI for the county decreased slightly by five percent from 8.6 in the previous month to 8.2 in July 2021.

Households in Pastoral Livelihood Zones employed more coping strategies with an index of 13.8 while Households in Agro-Pastoral and Urban Employment Livelihood Zones applied the least coping strategies at an index of 4.1 and 2.4 respectively.

The proportion of households in stressed and crisis coping in the month of July 2021 was 57.2 and 9.4 percent respectively.

Strategies commonly employed include; relying on less preferred food, borrowing food, reducing number of meals and reducing portion size and quantity for adults.

Figure 16: Malnutrition Trend in the County

Figure 17: Coping Strategy indexes

6.0 CURRENT INTERVENTION MEASURES (ACTION) 6.1 Non-food interventions.

Sustainable food system Program by the World Food Programme (WFP) targeting 4,667 households spread in 41 sites across the County

Community health education and advocacy

Routine Vitamin A supplementation

Polio immunization campaign was concluded recently across the county.

Rehabilitation and maintenance of strategic boreholes

Responding to water stress through water trucking

Human disease surveillance and laboratory testing

Surveillance on prevalence of brucellosis

Hay baling and marketing

Extension services

Upscaled outreaches-WCG, KRCS, SCI

Cash transfer to 1,000 beneficiaries in Wajir West and Tarbaj by RACIDA targeting malnourished and food insecure households.

6.2 Food Aid.

The Kenya Red Cross Society carried out distribution of relief to 1,000 households affected by drought at Ganyure, Banane, Shanta-Abaq and Barmil in Wajir West.

7. 0 EMERGING ISSUES 7.1 Insecurity/Conflict/Human Displacement

There were reported incidents of resource-based conflict on the border between Wajir and Isiolo counties where one person was killed in addition to injuries and displacement of people. There were also cases of human-wildlife conflict at Handaki area of Wajir East. There is the need to undertake regular community peace dialogues, especially in areas along the border with the neighboring counties.

7.2 Migration

Currently, there is in-migration from Mandera County and Ethiopia into the grazing zones

around Bute, Danaba, Gurar, Godoma, Kutulo and Batalu wards in the Agro-Pastoral

Livelihood Zone. Migration within the county was at its peak during the month under

review. It was also noted that some livestock from Lakolle/Basir, Eldas, Batalu, Korondile

and Malkagufu wards migrated into Marsabit and Isiolo counties. Current livestock

migration is not normal.

7.3 Food security prognosis/forecasts According to the Kenya Meteorological Department, the August 2021 weather outlook

indicates that most parts of the County will be generally dry and sunny.

Condition of pasture and browse will likely deteriorate in the coming months due to massive in-migration of livestock to the areas that have fair browse and water.

Based on Sussex Vegetation Outlook, the 3-month VCI forecast indicates moderate vegetation deficit in the County with a score of 34.

Grazing distance to water sources is expected to increase as the little pasture and browse will likely be depleted in the coming months.

Milk availability and accessibility will likely decline due to increased trekking distance.

Prices of milk are likely to increase as the production decreases.

Malnutrition level will likely increase due to low milk production and consumption.

Livestock body condition will likely deteriorate due to increased trekking distance, poor forage and depletion of water sources.

Prices of livestock are expected to decline due to poor market attributed to low demand and high supply.

Unfavourable Terms of Trade would likely be witnessed, thus affecting the purchasing power of pastoral households.

There is the risk of resource-based conflicts in areas with fair forage due to in-migration from the neighbouring counties. There is therefore the need for regular community peace dialogues to prevent and mitigate potential conflicts.

Cases of livestock diseases across all the livelihood zones are expected to increase as livestock congregates at common grazing and watering points during the dry season.

Some poor households, especially in Wajir West, Eldas and Wajir South will be at the risk of experiencing crisis food insecurity (IPC Phase 3).

8.0 RECOMMENDATIONS Health & Nutrition

Scaling up disease surveillance

Scaling up wash interventions

Strengthening and scale up of IMAM surge

Scaling up PD hearth

Scaling up of integrated outreaches

Water trucking to health facilities

Livestock Sector.

Ring vaccinations

Active and passive livestock disease surveillance

Sensitization on commercial offtake

Distribution of supplementary livestock feeds

Water Sector.

Water trucking for 50 centres

Repair and maintenance of water bowsers

Provision of fast- moving spare parts for 10 strategic boreholes

Repair and maintenance of strategic boreholes Peace and Security:

Support conflict early warning systems

Intensify peace building efforts in conflict hotspots

Promotion of peace messages through local FM station and IEC materials

Regular community peace dialogues

Education Sector

Meals for ECD and primary schools

Tents for schools with high enrolment

Provision of clean water and water storage facilities

Bursary for vulnerable children

Provision of hand washing facilities