NationNationStateState~~25%25%

International International SpaceSpace~~75%75%

ARCTIC OCEAN STATE-CHANGES:ARCTIC OCEAN STATE-CHANGES:

NATIONAL INTERESTS AND COMMON INTERESTSNATIONAL INTERESTS AND COMMON INTERESTS

Paul Arthur BerkmanPaul Arthur BerkmanArctic Ocean Geopolitics ProgrammeArctic Ocean Geopolitics Programme

Scott Polar Research Institute, University of CambridgeScott Polar Research Institute, University of Cambridge

ARCTIC OCEANARCTIC OCEAN

SOVIET PRESIDENT MIKHAIL GORBACHEV – SPEECH IN MURMANSK AT THE CEREMONIAL MEETING ON THE OCCASION OF THE PRESENTATION OF THE ORDER OF LENIN AND THE GOLD STAR TO THE CITY OF MURMANSK Murmansk, 1 October 1987Murmansk, 1 October 1987  ““The community and interrelationship of the interests of our entire world is felt in the The community and interrelationship of the interests of our entire world is felt in the northern part of the globe, in the Arctic, perhaps more than anywhere else. For the northern part of the globe, in the Arctic, perhaps more than anywhere else. For the Arctic and the North Atlantic are not just the "weather kitchen", the point where Arctic and the North Atlantic are not just the "weather kitchen", the point where cyclones and anticyclones are born to influence the climate in Europe, the USA and cyclones and anticyclones are born to influence the climate in Europe, the USA and Canada, and even in South Asia and Africa.Canada, and even in South Asia and Africa.  I would like to invite, first of all, the countries of the region to a discussion on the I would like to invite, first of all, the countries of the region to a discussion on the burning security issues.burning security issues.  The potential of contemporary civilization could permit us to make the Arctic The potential of contemporary civilization could permit us to make the Arctic habitable for the benefit of the national economies and other human interests of the habitable for the benefit of the national economies and other human interests of the near-Arctic states, for Europe and the entire international community. near-Arctic states, for Europe and the entire international community.   Let the North of the globe, the Arctic, become a zone of peace. Let the North Pole Let the North of the globe, the Arctic, become a zone of peace. Let the North Pole be a pole of peace.”be a pole of peace.”

ENVIRONMENTAL STATE-CHANGEENVIRONMENTAL STATE-CHANGE

EMERGING COMMERCIAL ACTIVITIESEMERGING COMMERCIAL ACTIVITIES

FIGURE 7: Shipping routes in the Arctic Ocean in 2004 based on eleven commercial vessel types among approximately 6000 vessels. Major fishing activities, with more than 5000 fishing vessel days, occurred in the Large Marine Ecosystems (Fig. 2) of the: East Berring Sea, Barents Sea, West Greenland Shelf, East Greenland Shelf, Norwegian Sea, Iceland Shelf Sea and Farroe Plateau. Adapted from the 2009 Arctic Marine Shipping Assessment.

INTERNATIONAL INTERESTS IN THE ARCTIC

INTERNATIONAL INTERESTS IN THE ARCTIC

FIGURE 6: Submarine Launched Ballistic Missile (SLBM) test in the Arctic. Data through 2007 [1] has associated information about the missile types, apogees, sites and missions. The 2009 SLBM launches were reported in Ria Novosti. [2] This figure shows a total of 133 SLBM tests in the Arctic.

[1] http://www.astronautix.com/sites/acrocean.htm[2] Russia test launches second Sineva ballistic missile in two days. RiaNovosti 18 July 2009. (http://en.rian.ru/mlitary_news/20090714/155525416.html)

““BURNING SECURITY ISSUES”BURNING SECURITY ISSUES”

ARCTIC GOVERNANCE – INSTITUTIONAL INTERPLAYARCTIC GOVERNANCE – INSTITUTIONAL INTERPLAY

OIL AND GAS ESTIMATESOIL AND GAS ESTIMATES

2009 - United States Geological Survey2009 - United States Geological Survey“…the Arctic may contain about 30% of the world’s undiscovered gas and 13% of the world’s undiscovered oil… about 618 BBO [billion barrels of oil] … with a high probability (>95%chance) that more than 770 TCF [trillion cubic feet] of gas occurs north of the Arctic Circle.”

Science 324:1175-1179  

1974 – Unites States Geological Survey1974 – Unites States Geological Survey“…45 billion barrels of oil and 115 trillion cubic feet of natural gas” in the Antarctic

Geological Survey Circular 705 (USGS, Reston)

GEOPOLITICAL STATE-CHANGEGEOPOLITICAL STATE-CHANGE

Signed: Montego Bay, Jamaica, 10 December 1982Signed: Montego Bay, Jamaica, 10 December 1982Entered into Force: 16 November 1994Entered into Force: 16 November 1994

Ratification, Accession or Succession: 155+ NationsRatification, Accession or Succession: 155+ Nations

UNITED NATIONS CONVENTION ON THE LAW OF THE SEAUNITED NATIONS CONVENTION ON THE LAW OF THE SEA

NATIONAL NATIONAL INTERESTSINTERESTS

COMMON COMMON INTERESTSINTERESTS++

ENVIRONMENTAL SECURITYENVIRONMENTAL SECURITY

ARCTIC COUNCILARCTIC COUNCIL

““Arctic Council should not deal with matters related to military security”Arctic Council should not deal with matters related to military security”

““common arctic issues”common arctic issues” - sustainable development and environmental protection - sustainable development and environmental protection

NEEDED: Wisdom to promote cooperation and NEEDED: Wisdom to promote cooperation and prevent discord with all tools of diplomacyprevent discord with all tools of diplomacy

““North Pole as a pole of peace.”North Pole as a pole of peace.”