Naomi Kikoler - Th Responsibility to Protect
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Transcript of Naomi Kikoler - Th Responsibility to Protect
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SIMON-SKJODTCENTER FOR THE
PREVENTION OF GENOCIDE
UNITED STATES HOLOCAUST MEMORIAL MUSEUM
Naomi KikolerDeputy Director
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What does a history museum about the Holocaust have to do with preventing genocide today?
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“A memorial unresponsive to the future would also violate the memory of the past.”
Elie WieselMuseum Founding ChairHolocaust Survivor, and Nobel Laureate
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10Image from USHMM Bearing Witness: Syria
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Public
Specific
Best Methods
Early
This
What’s missing?
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peace
keep
ing o
perat
ions
sanct
ions
mili
tary
inte
rven
tion
limiti
ng com
munica
tions
const
itutio
nal re
form
livel
ihood in
terv
entio
ns
secu
rity s
ecto
r ref
orm
disarm
amen
t, dem
obiliza
tion, r
einte
grat
ion
civil
socie
ty su
pport
Most policy attention on mass atrocity prevention is focused here.
mass
kill
ing
one yearfive years
Countries ranked among the Top 10; countries most people know about.
Countries identified by the Early Warning Project as medium risk.
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Statistical Risk Assessment
Aggregated Expert Forecasts
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Statistical Risk Assessment: Variables
• exclusionary elite ideology• state-led discrimination
• type of government• institutional stability• recent coup activity
• recent upheaval• regional conflict• domestic civil conflict
• population size• economic growth rate• trade openness• infant mortality• natural resource wealth
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Model #2: Elite Threat
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Model #1: Bad Regime
Statistical Risk Assessment
• population size • per capita income• natural resource wealth• economic growth rate • type of government• institutional stability• recent coup activity• domestic civil conflict• regional conflict
• low trade openness• infant mortality • authoritarian rule• regime type• regional conflict• recent upheaval• exclusionary elite ideology• state-led discrimination• prior mass killing
Statistical Risk Assessments: Ensemble Forecasts
Model #3• random forests
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•exclusionary elite ideology•state-led discrimination•international isolation•domestic conflict in country•regional conflict
Bad
Regi
me
Elite
Thr
eat
Rand
om F
ores
ts
Statistical Risk Assessment: Myanmar
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Statistical Risk Assessment
Aggregated Expert Forecasts
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Aggregated Expert Forecasts: Opinion Pool
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Aggregated Expert Forecasts: Output
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