Municipal waste composition, trends and futures · MSW trends, futures: 27th April 2009 What’s...

27th April 2009

Taking out the rubbish:

Municipal waste composition, trends &

futures

Julian Parfitt

MSW trends, futures: 27th April 2009

What’s covered?

1. Municipal waste composition

• Historical trends

• Current & recent compositional estimates

2. Municipal waste trends 1983-2008

• Time series

• Influences on trend

3. Waste futures?

4. Conclusions


Dustbin composition 1930-2000

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Fines Misc Paper Putresc Metals Glass Textiles Plastics

1. Trend in ‘dust bin’ waste 1930 to 2000 : England

(kg / hhld/ week)


1. How reliable are compositional data?

Difficult at national scale

Different waste analysis methods, sample selection, waste

streams covered

Statistical uncertainty around estimates

Time trends more possible if repeat-sample at individual

community level, few instances:

• RIVM study, monitoring since 1971


1. More recently published UK compositional data (% wt)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

munic ipal was te 2006/07: Defra

R eview: s oon to be publis hed

munic ipal was te E ngland s elected

s tudies 2003-2005

hous ehold was te E ngland s elected

s tudies 2000-2002

munic ipal was te Wales 2000/01

F ines

Other was tes

Mis c non-c ombus tible

Mis c combus tible

F urniture

S anitary

Haz ardous

WE E E

Wood

Textiles

P las tic s

Metals

G las s

C ard

P aper

G arden was te

F ood was te

Soon to be published:

Review of Municipal

Waste Component

Analyses (Defra)


1. Differences between national datasets

Extent to which different MSW waste streams covered

Waste categories used

Sampling strategies (at kerbside, at CA/ HWRC)

Sampled weights

National coverage: authority types/ collection system

types


1. Defra research: Municipal Waste Composition: Review of

Municipal Waste Component Analyses

Aims and objectives: pulling together all of the datasets:

1. Evaluation of methodologies

2. Mapping exercise

3. Critical review of previous work undertaken

4. Develop best estimates of UK MSW composition +

5. Gap analysis

6. Recommendations for future design of municipal waste analysis

programme


1. What is thrown away in residual bin?

(2003-05 selected compositional data sets: England, pre-dating

Defra 2009 review)

Kitchen peelings

15%

Kitchen cooked

15%

Paper and board

20%

Plastics

13%

Other

7%

Garden waste

7%

Glass

6%

Metals

4%

Nappies & what they contain

4%

Textiles

3%

Other Combustible

3%

Rubble and other non-combustible

3%

Food Waste

30%


1. Residual bin: % Biodegradable Municipal Waste

(2003-05 selected compositional data: England, pre-dating

Defra’s 2009 review)

Kitchen peelings

23%

Kitchen cooked

23%

Paper and board

30%

Garden waste

10%

Nappies

5%

Other + fines

3% Textiles

3%

Other Combustible

3%

Food Waste

46% BMW


2. Municipal waste trends

‘Waste Not Want Not’ 2002: 2-3% / year increases

Waste Strategy 2007: 0.5% (base case)

Elsewhere in UK: higher?

• What are links between GDP, disposable income & MSW?

• What role local policies/ drivers?

• What role national policies/ drivers?


Trends are difficult to interpret due to reporting biases and

changes in reporting practices

Changes in reporting regime

Different methods of grossing-up final figures

2. Municipal waste trends


2. Trends in residual household waste 1983 -93: England

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993

Year

% R

esp

on

din

g &

% W

aste

Weig

hed

12.5

13

13.5

14

14.5

15

15.5

Millio

ns o

f T

on

nes p

er

An

nu

m

% Weigh

% Responding

Total

Local Government Act 1985


2. Municipal waste trend England,1995/96 – 2008/09*

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

1995 96 1996 97 1997 98 1998 99 1999 00 2000 01 2001 02 2002 03 2003 04 2004 05 2005 06 2006 07 2007 08 2008 09

Total household Total municipal

*provisional estimates


2. Municipal waste trends 1995/96- 2008/09 by waste stream

0

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

30,000,000

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

RCV residual other hhld CA residual

non hhld residual hhld recycling /composting non hhld recycling /composting

Rapid reductions in

CA residual

waste

Reductions in RCV

residual waste


2. Understanding Waste Growth at Local Authority Level -

WR0121(final stages April/May 2009)

Explores reported household waste trends 2000-07 in

relation to local waste policy influences:

total waste arisings and waste arisings per household

changes to household waste collection infrastructure &

collection policies

key demographic changes, including in-migration &

household numbers

locally held municipal waste statistics

changes to the reporting of municipal waste statistics


3. What might future waste look like?

Scenarios to understand factors, range of possibilities

Scenarios are not predictive

Highlight links between lifestyles, households & household waste

ESTO (2003) Scenarios of household waste generation in

2020, June 2003

Brook Lyndhurst (2007) Lifestyle Scenarios: The Futures for Waste Composition - WR0104, March 2007


3. Influences on future household waste

Just about everything………

• Economy

• Lifestyles

• Demographics

• In-migration

• Politics

• Environment

• Population growth

• Growth in household numbers

• Technology

• Collection strategies


3. What might future waste look like?

Need to consider current arisings & links with consumer

expenditure patterns

…..but dangers of not considering less certain / high

consequence changes (technological & societal)

Function Subdivision Sort of waste Waste type

Feeding

Eating

Kitchen waste Organic waste

Bread

Food packaging Paper and cardboard

Plastics

Glass

Metals

Small Durable Goods Ceramics

Drinking

Drink packaging Paper and cardboard

Plastics

Glass

Metals

Small Durable Goods Glass

Plastics

Recreation

Pet waste Other

Yard waste Organic waste

Care

Health

Medicines Various

Packaging Various

Personal

Cosmetics Various

Diapers Paper and cardboard

Cleaning Various

Infotainment

Personal

Newspapers Paper and cardboard

Electronics Small Chemical Waste

Books Paper and cardboard

Commercial

Advertising Paper and cardboard

Post Waste Paper and cardboard

Plastic bags and sacks Plastics

Electronics

Clothing

Disposal Textile

Leather

Not Allocated

3. Functions in the home & waste

types generated (ESTO 2003)

Waste driven by way in which household needs are fulfilled


36.3%

22.5%

15.5%

8.4%

3.4%

13.9%

Feeding

Recreation

Infotainment

Care

Clothing

Not Allocated

3. Household waste composition by function (ESTO 2003)


3. Consequences of different scenarios by 2020 (ESTO 2003)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1995 base 2020 baeline media@home on the road comfort community home sweet home

compostable waste packaging paper white & brown goods other


Brook Lyndhurst (2007)


4. Conclusions

Waste composition: changes significant through time &

few of these were predicted

Current residual bin: food waste of prime importance (&

wt) & ‘feeding function’ dominates

Future waste?

• most likely contains elements of all scenarios


Julian Parfitt

Resource Futures Ltd

Tel: 07903 037 436

[email protected]

www.resourcefutures.co.uk


Thank you

Municipal waste composition, trends and futures · MSW trends, futures: 27th April 2009 What’s...

Documents

Transcript of Municipal waste composition, trends and futures · MSW trends, futures: 27th April 2009 What’s...