Tech Futures for Global Futures · 2020-02-20 · First, a CGI expert panel assesses each Tech...
Transcript of Tech Futures for Global Futures · 2020-02-20 · First, a CGI expert panel assesses each Tech...
Tech Futuresfor Global Futures
An outlook on future technologies that will change the world
Issue 1: January 2020
Global Futures
POLIT
ICS
ENVIRONMEN
T
ECON
OMY
TECHNO
LOGY
SOCIETY
Art
s &
Cul
ture
Beh
avio
ral &
Sci
ence
Citi
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Urb
aniz
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nC
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Par
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igita
l Eco
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y &
Soci
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Futu
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f Hea
lth &
Hea
lthca
re
Gende
r & P
arity
Human
Rights
Humanitaria
n Action
Justice & Legal Infrastructure
Leadership in the 4th Industrial Revolution
Media & Entertainment
Mental Health
Role of Religion
Social Innovation
ValuesWorkforce & EmploymentYouth Perspectives
5GAdvanced Manufacturing & Production
Advanced Material
Artificial Intelligence & Robotics
Biotechnology
Blockchain
Cybersecurity
Digital identity
4th Industrial R
evolution
Future of Mobility
Hum
an Enhancement
Innovation
Internet of ThingsN
euro
scie
nce
Spa
ce
Pre
cisi
on M
edic
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Virtu
al &
Aug
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ted
Rea
lity
Ble
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Fin
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Circ
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Eco
nom
y
Emer
ging
Mul
tinat
iona
ls
Entre
pren
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hip
Fam
ily B
usine
ss
Finan
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Mone
tary S
ystem
Future of Economic Progress
Geo-EconomicsElicit E
conomySustainable Development
International Trade & Investment
BiodiversityClimate ChangeEnvironment & Natural Resource Security
Forests
Future of Energy
Future of Food
Oceans
Plastics and the environement
Water
Agile governance
Arctic
Corruption
Geopolitics
Global governance
Global health
Global risks
Infrastructure
International securityInternet governance M
igra
tion
Nuc
lear
sec
urity
Educ
atio
n &
Skills
Futu
re o
f Con
sum
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Age
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Inclusive Desig
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3D Printing
Batteries
Drones
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Global Futures
POLIT
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ENVIRONMEN
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ECON
OMY
TECHNO
LOGY
SOCIETY
Art
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Cul
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Beh
avio
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Sci
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Citi
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Urb
aniz
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nC
ivic
Par
ticip
atio
nD
igita
l Eco
nom
y &
Soci
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Futu
re o
f Hea
lth &
Hea
lthca
re
Gende
r & P
arity
Human
Rights
Humanitaria
n Action
Justice & Legal Infrastructure
Leadership in the 4th Industrial Revolution
Media & Entertainment
Mental Health
Role of Religion
Social Innovation
ValuesWorkforce & EmploymentYouth Perspectives
5GAdvanced Manufacturing & Production
Advanced Material
Artificial Intelligence & Robotics
Biotechnology
Blockchain
Cybersecurity
Digital identity
4th Industrial R
evolution
Future of Mobility
Hum
an Enhancement
Innovation
Internet of Things
Neu
rosc
ienc
e
Spa
ce
Pre
cisi
on M
edic
ine
Virtu
al &
Aug
men
ted
Rea
lity
Ble
nded
Fin
ance
Circ
ular
Eco
nom
y
Emer
ging
Mul
tinat
iona
ls
Entre
pren
eurs
hip
Fam
ily B
usine
ss
Finan
cial &
Mone
tary S
ystem
Future of Economic Progress
Geo-EconomicsElicit E
conomySustainable Development
International Trade & Investment
BiodiversityClimate ChangeEnvironment & Natural Resource Security
Forests
Future of Energy
Future of Food
Oceans
Plastics and the environement
Water
Agile governance
Arctic
Corruption
Geopolitics
Global governance
Global health
Global risks
Infrastructure
International securityInternet governance M
igra
tion
Nuc
lear
sec
urity
Educ
atio
n &
Skills
Futu
re o
f Con
sum
ptio
n
Age
ing
Inclusive Desig
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3D Printing
Batteries
Drones
Cor
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te G
over
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Pub
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nanc
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soc
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CGI’s Tech Futures series examines technologies on the leading edge of research. Today, these technologies are still in labs and
beyond the “emerging” horizon of CGI’s Future Scan of emerging technologies. However, they are garnering widespread interest
and investment, and it is already clear they will play a major role in our future. These technologies have the potential, within a decade,
to substantially impact our clients, their customers and their industries, as well our economies, the environment and our societies.
Tech Futures is for curious leaders who think constantly about designing and shaping the future of their organization and the
experiences, interactions and products and services they provide – leaders who strive to make our communities and societies a
better place for future generations.
Tech Futures seeks to give you an early awareness of the further-out technologies of tomorrow, allowing you to think about them
today, grasp their potential impact and envision their eventual application.
We are working continuously with CGI’s thought leaders and technology experts from around the world, as well as with our partner
ecosystem, to identify and assess new Tech Futures and publish further updates.
We hope you will find Tech Futures useful and inspiring. If you have feedback for improvements or ideas for additional Tech Futures
to cover, please contact us at [email protected]
Foreword
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Table of content01 Introduction
02 Tech Futures
02.1 Quantum Computing (QC)
02.2 Post-Quantum Cryptography (PQC)
02.3 DNA Data Storage
02.4 Digital Mirrorworld (DMW) - Spatial Web
02.5 Brain Computer Interface (BCI)
03 Epilogue
Appendix A: Lenses
Appendix B: Ecosystem / Sources
Appendix C: Acknowledgements
3
CGI’s Tech Futures examines technologies on the leading edge of research and their potential impact on global issues and our
clients’ business strategies and operations. In addition to providing a primer on Tech Futures and how they are relevant to our
future, we assess their impact potential through four lenses:
First, a CGI expert panel assesses each Tech Future’s potential to impact the world’s mega issues and trends, or Global
Futures, such as those presented in the World Economic Forum’s Strategic Intelligence*.
Second, we evaluate each Tech Future’s impact time horizon** as well as which industries might be impacted first.
Third, for the purpose of medium-term planning, we examine how a Tech Future might be relevant to some of CGI’s Agile
Design Principles for organizations transforming to a more agile operating model.
Fourth, we examine each Tech Future’s relationship to the current set of emerging technologies as monitored in CGI’s more
near-to-medium-term Future Scan v2.0. We have also curated a set of links to online resources and key ecosystem players
for the Tech Future (Appendix B).
For more details on the four Lenses please see Appendix A.
Tech Futures issues are published semi-annually.
* World Economic Forum’s Strategic Intelligence: https://intelligence.weforum.org/ | ** impact time horizon = time until widespread POCs and/or MVPs in production
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01 Introduction
Life Sciences /Pharma
Manufacturing/ Materials
DefenseComms / Media/ Entertainment
Education Health Transport &Logistics
GovernmentBanking Retail /Consumer Svc.
CapitalMarkets
Insurance Oil & Gas& Mining
Utilities
Business Organization Technology
Co-Design QC will allow for rapid simulations of 10,000s of market, product design scenarios fueling innovation.
Structure and governance QC allows simulations of how to organize a complex enterprise made up of many smaller, focused, autonomous units and teams
Decisions made on insight Decisions aided by 10,000s of market, product, operational simulations; performed with QC and quantum AI algorithms
Employees freed up As processing speeds up and QC is ubiquitous, employees are better guided and have more time to focus on the right value-adding activities.
Quantum Computing (QC)
Where will we see it first? Impact time horizon 5-10 years
Rethink for Agile BusinessQuantum computers harness quantum mechanics to deliver orders-of-magnitude improvements in processing power. The key to a quantum computer’s power lies in its ability to generate and manipulate quantum bits, or qubits. Qubits have quantum properties — such as superposition and entanglement—that allow a connected group of qubits, in combination with specially designed quantum algorithms, to drastically speed up certain types of calculations.
What is it?
One of the most promising applications of quantum computers is simulating the behavior of matter down to the molecular level. For example, there is great potential to accelerate comparison of molecular compounds that could lead to new drugs. Car companies already use quantum computers to simulate the chemical composition of E-vehicle batteries to improve their performance. Quantum computers are also great for optimization problems because they can crunch through vast numbers of potential solutions extremely fast (e.g. optimizing traffic routing). Some researchers also think the machines could be used to accelerate AI. Many challenges remain, but if quantum computers live up to their promise, they could transform entire industries and turbocharge global innovation.
Why is it relevant?
“We are still many years away from getting quantum computers that will be broadly useful” (MIT, 2019)
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02 Tech Futures
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Society Technology Environment PoliticalEconomy*STEEP:
S M WStrong Moderate Weak
Coherence of Expert Assessment
Global Futures (STEEP) impact
Future Scan 2.0/Compute & Infrastructure/High-Performance Computing/Quantum Computing | Future Scan 2.0/Data/Artificial Intelligence/Quantum Computing
Reading the chart: The height of the bar represents the average probability across our experts. The green circle indicates the strength of coherence among the probabilities.
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Life Sciences /Pharma
Manufacturing/ Materials
DefenseComms / Media/ Entertainment
Education Health Transport &Logistics
GovernmentBanking Retail /Consumer Svc.
CapitalMarkets
Insurance Oil & Gas& Mining
Utilities
Where will we see it first? Impact time horizon 3-4 years
Business Organization Technology
Ecosystem of partners Trust and collaboration are secured by impervious PQC.
Culture and management system that is secure and safeguards employee and customer data, intellectual property, identity, privacy.
Decisions made on insight AI-powered, decision making is secured by PQC.
Smart, integrated, automated, fast technology platforms are secured by PQC.
Post-Quantum Cryptography (PQC)02.2
Rethink for Agile BusinessPost-quantum cryptography is the development of new kinds of cryptographic approaches for today’s computers that will be impervious to attacks from tomorrow’s quantum computers. Approaches range from simply increasing key sizes ( e.g., from 128 g 256 bits) to using more complex mathematical trapdoor algorithms, to lattice-based cryptography and super-singular isogeny key exchange.
What is it?
Cryptography is essential for the security of today’s interconnected world (IT/OT systems, cars, airplanes, critical infrastructure, medical devices, etc). In a 5G-accelerated and data/AI-driven world, security becomes even more critical. However, in just a few years, when practical quantum computers arrive, their ability to crack most of today’s crypto algorithms could wreak economic and political havoc. Any business or government storing data for decades needs to be thinking now about the risks quantum computers pose. The pressure is on; encryption technologies are deeply embedded in the systems they protect; unraveling them and implementing new ones can take a great deal of time and effort.
Why is it relevant?
Draft standards for PQC are expected to emerge and be published by 2022 (U.S. NIST, 2019)
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Society Technology Environment PoliticalEconomy*STEEP:
S M WStrong Moderate Weak
Coherence of Expert Assessment
Global Futures (STEEP) impact
Future Scan 2.0/Security/Cybersecurity/Post-Quantum Cryptography8
Life Sciences /Pharma
Manufacturing/ Materials
DefenseComms / Media/ Entertainment
Education Health Transport &Logistics
GovernmentBanking Retail /Consumer Svc
CapitalMarkets
Insurance Oil & Gas& Mining
Utilities
Where will we see it first? Impact time horizon 10+ years
Business Organization Technology
Co-design enables differentiating services with ecosystem partners for micro-segments using massive amounts of data, stored in inexpensive DNA storage.
Organizational culture More granular, autonomous teams require ever more data to make decisions ever more fluidly. DNA-based storage provides unlimited storage.
Decisions made on insight AI-powered, insight-based, automated decision making is based on massive amounts of customer and contextual data stored and archived on DNA.
Smart, integrated, automated, fast technology platforms rely on massive amounts of DNA-stored data
DNA Data Storage02.3
Rethink for Agile BusinessDNA Data Storage is the process of encoding and decoding binary/digital data to and from synthesized DNA strands. DNA with its long chains of the nucleotides A, T, C and G is life’s information-storage material. Data can be stored in the sequence of these letters, turning DNA into a new form of information technology. DNA is incredibly stable over 10,000s of years. It requires a fraction of the energy today’s magnetic and optical storage technologies consume. Speed of reading/writing DNA and cost are the main challenges.
What is it?
By 2020, an estimated 1.7 MB of data will be created per second per person globally, or about 418 billion one TB hard drives per year (418 zettabytes). Today’s magnetic or optical data-storage systems that hold this volume of 0s and 1s typically cannot last for more than a century, if that. Further, running data centers takes huge amounts of energy. Soon a serious data-storage problem will only become more severe over time. DNA’s storage density far exceeds that of electronic devices. E.g., the bacterium Escherichia coli has a storage density of about 1019 bits per cm3. All the world’s current storage needs for a year could be met by a one m3 cube of such DNA. It is still unclear if DNA will become the new ubiquitous storage. It will almost certainly be used for storing information at entirely new scales and preserving certain data over the long term.
Why is it relevant?
Boston, MA start-up CATALOG packed all of Wikipedia onto synthetic DNA strands (CNET, June 2019)
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Future Scan 2.0/Compute & Infrastructure/High-Performance Computing/DNA Data Storage10
Life Sciences /Pharma
Manufacturing/ Materials
DefenseComms / Media/ Entertainment
Education Health Transport &Logistics
GovernmentBanking Retail /Consumer Svc.
CapitalMarkets
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Where will we see it first? Impact time horizon 5-10 years
Business Organization Technology
External ecosystem The ecosystem, partners and their assets will extend into and be boosted by the Mirrorworld.
Structure Organizational structure can be simulated /optimized in the Mirrorworld, where every team has a mirror twin.
Employees freed up Mirrorworld applications will augment employee intelligence, improving speed and quality of complex tasks.
Co-Design Co-design and testing will be done efficiently in the realistic and augmented Mirrorworld.
Decisions made on insight AI-powered, decision making optimized by simulations of the Mirrorworld.
Digital Mirrorworld (DMW) - Spatial Web02.4
Rethink for Agile BusinessThe Digital Mirrorworld for the most part doesn’t yet exist. In the near future, every place and thing—every street, street sign, lamppost, building, room—will have its full-size digital twin in the DMW. At present, only tiny pieces of this world are visible through AR headsets. Piece by piece, these virtual fragments will be stitched together to form a shared, persistent place that will eventually parallel the real world and encompass the entire planet. DMW is made possible by the convergence of 5G, cloud/edge/GPU computing, IoT sensor/camera miniaturization, blockchain, AI, and AR displays.
What is it?
The Spatial Web 3.0 represents the third technology mega-platform in human history. The first was the World Wide Web (Web 1.0) which subjected knowledge to the power of algorithms and ran on desktops and laptops. The second was social media (Web 2.0), running on smartphones. It digitized people’s human connections and human behavior and subjected that behavior to the power of algorithms. The Spatial Web 3.0, will digitize the physical world. On this platform, all things and places will have machine-readable digital twins, subject to the power of algorithms. Like Webs 1.0 and 2.0 before, it will unleash the prosperity of thousands of companies in its ecosystem, driven by a million new ideas that were not possible before machines could read the world—but also will create a myriad of new challenges.
Why is it relevant?
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Future Scan 2.0/Channels/Augmented Reality/Mirrorworld | Future Scan 2.0/Data-Driven/Digital Twin/Mirrorworld12
Life Sciences /Pharma
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DefenseComms / Media/ Entertainment
Education Health Transport &Logistics
GovernmentBanking Retail /Consumer Svc.
CapitalMarkets
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Where will we see it first? Impact time horizon 10+ years
Business Organization Technology
Co-design Cross-functional virtual teams collaborate in virtual reality with digital twins aided by BCI.
Culture–collaboration / innovation Employee training, up-skilling acquiring new innovation skills are augmented by BCI.
Automated / integrated platforms Employees control complex equipment via thought.
Employees freed up Writing and typing is replaced by thought-to-text interfaces.
Brain Computer Interface (BCI)02.5
Rethink for Agile BusinessA Brain Computer Interface (BCI) — also known as a brain-machine interface, a neural-control interface, a mind-machine interface, a direct neural interface, or a neuroprosthetic — allows for direct communication between the brain and an external device, often to control the device’s activity. BCIs read signals from the brain and use AI / machine learning algorithms to translate the signals into an external action.
What is it?
BCIs have life-changing potential for humans with motor impairments by allowing them to perform physical actions they otherwise could not. BCIs translate brain signals via AI algorithms into commands to control devices like wheelchairs, prosthetic limbs or other assistive technologies. BCIs have the potential to make everyday tasks easier and eliminate the need to type, give voice commands or provide manual control inputs to all kinds of machines. Early use cases include: neuroscience, military, medicine, rescue/disaster management, security, education, rehabilitation, entertainment/gaming. Key ethical implications include: safety, security and privacy.
Why is it relevant?
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We hope you found this inaugural issue of CGI Tech Futures to be thought provoking and inspiring. In closing, we want to share some final perspectives to help you think about these technologies with their potential to change the world as you plan your future.
5 Tech Futures to watch
1. We see Quantum Computing (QC) as being at the top of a hype cycle. Realistically, we believe its impact horizon to be in the 5-10 year range. Nevertheless, the technology’s potential are enormous — using its processing power and quantum algorithms with vast amounts of data to investigate climate change, species migrations, flood forecasting, advanced materials and medicines, medical research, and space exploration — the possibilities for innovation and good are endless. Our experts do express concern about the possible erosive impacts of QC on security, crime, values and religion.
2. Closely related — and on a nearer impact trajectory of 3-4 years — is Post-Quantum Cryptography (PQC). QC has the potential to break all our current encryption schemes. And with a hyper-connected world of cloud, IoT, 5G, and AI rapidly emerging, the race is on to develop new quantum-proof encryptions to protect our physical, digital and social realms. Significant efforts are being expended by governments and industry to stay ahead of QC’s capability curve. There is considerable disagreement amongst our experts about whether PQC will keep us safe or whether it will be overpowered by QC’s sheer power.
3. While QC will ultimately break the processing power paradigm of the last 60 years, DNA Data Storage has the potential to break the paradigm of how we store the unimaginable amounts of data created by our hyper-connected world. Current predictions are the world’s stored data will more than quintuple in the next 5 years (CAGR of >65%). Magnetic or optical storage simply will not be able to cope with exponentially growing volumes. Storing data in synthetic DNA strands has the potential to store the world’s annual data growth in a cubic meter. We believe this technology will take over a decade to mature before becoming a foundational technology of a connected world.
4. All three previous technologies will be key enablers in the emergence of the next global digital platform. Over the next 5-10 years, the Digital Mirrorworld (DMW) or Spatial Web 3.0 will become a globe-spanning digital twin of the entire physical world. It’s beginning to emerge as we speak but it is unclear who will dominate this third reincarnation of the WWW with their platform(s). While technologists marvel at the potential for new ideas, experiences and innovations, ethicists, philosophers and lawyers caution about the technology’s potential to do real harm to geo and national politics, societies and humanity. Recent controversies around irresponsible behavior of today’s Web 2.0 social medial platforms will likely will be dwarfed by the ethical and moral issues surrounding Spatial Web 3.0.
5. Lastly, Brain Computer Interface (BCI): The hit science fiction movie The Matrix, released in 1999, depicts a future in which humans live in a simulated reality. Twenty years later, the emergence of BCIs, DMW, QC and AI, make it now conceivable that such a concept will indeed become reality in our lifetime — hopefully in a much more benign version. Needless to say, our experts are weighing the positive potential of BCIs in areas like prosthetics, neuroscience, neural disabilities, assistive technology and intelligence augmentation against a negative potential ranging from malicious mind hacking and manipulation, to unintended mental health and psychological impacts at individual and public health levels. At a spiritual level, BCIs have the potential to fundamentally alter our understanding of what it means to be human.
We believe that over the next 10-20 years, these five technologies will change the world profoundly — society, business, politics, civic life, and spiritual life, and even what it means to be human. Our experts do not always agree on a technology’s balance of benign or malignant impact potential. With the tremendous potential of these technologies to improve the lives of billions of people come considerable risks of abuse and unforeseen side effects. Thus, leaders must think critically and objectively about technology and its role in a rapidly changing and progressing world, in order to plan and act in sustainable, responsible, and ultimately positive ways. We hope you find CGI Tech Futures a useful tool for doing just that. Please don’t hesitate to give us your feedback at [email protected].
15
03 Epilogue
WM
M
W
M
MM
M
M M
M
M M
M
W
S
M
W
Beh
avio
ral s
cien
ce
Edu
catio
n &
ski
lls
Futu
re o
f hea
lth &
hea
lthca
re
Men
tal h
ealth
Rol
e of
relig
ion
Valu
es
Art
ifici
al in
tellig
ence
& ro
botic
s
Hum
an e
nhan
cem
ent
Inte
rnet
of t
hing
s
Neu
rosc
ienc
e
Pre
cisi
on m
edic
ine
Virt
ual &
augm
ente
d re
ality
Clim
ate
chan
ge
Agi
le g
over
nanc
e
Glo
bal h
ealth
Glo
bal r
isks
Inte
rnet
gov
erna
nce
Ent
repr
eneu
rshi
p
Neg
ativ
e Im
pac
t[p
roba
bilit
y]P
osi
tive
Imp
act
[pro
babi
lity]
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100
+100
+80
+60
+40
+20
Society Technology Environment PoliticalEconomy*STEEP:
S M WStrong Moderate Weak
Coherence of Expert Assessment
The Global Futures issues and trends provide one of the main lenses through which we analyze the Tech Futures and their potential impact on our world. These Global Futures follow the World Economic Forum’s Strategic Intelligence* and represent a set of 76 global mega-issues and trends shaping our world.
Global Futures are viewed through the STEEP prism of: Society, Technology, Economy, Environment and Politics
A group of CGI thought leaders assesses a Tech Future’s impact potential on each of the 76 Global Futures on a probability scale of -100 to +100. We then present the 18 Global Futures most likely impacted - positively or negatively - in the Global Futures Impact chart. The height of the bar represents the average probability across our experts. The green circle indicates the strength of coherence among our experts’ probabilities.
* World Economic Forum’s Strategic Intelligence: https://intelligence.weforum.org/
Lens #1 - Global Futures Issues & Trends
16
Appendix A: Lenses
10+years
5-10years1-2
years
3-4years
Industries impacted:
Tech Future:E.g., Quantum Computing
Manufacturing/ Materials
Life Sciences /Pharma
Defense
CGI technology and industry experts assess the Tech Futures impact time horizon and which industries will be impacted first.
Lens #2 - Impact Time Horizon - Industries
17
Business Organization Technology
Integration with an ecosystems of partners that collaborate, share, innovate and deliver increased value to a networked and shared economy
Clusters of smaller, focused autonomous business units that partner and collaborate with other business units, making decisions faster
Decisions made based on insights generated from customers and operational data
Co-designed market opportunities, products and services informed by customer needs and behaviours
Culture and management system that encourage a curious mindset, collaboration and innovation
Employees freed up to work on value-add activities
Agile, simplified and frugal operational processes
Smart, fast, integrated and automated technology platforms and solutions
Rethink for Agile Business
CGI has identified eight fundamental Design Principles for a more agile operating modelWe assess the Tech Future’s potential to enable one or more Design Principles
Lens #3 - CGI Agile Design Principles
18
MET
HODOLOGIE
S
Expe
rienc
e
Agile
DevOps
Cloud Native
Mobile SolutionsAugmented Reality
Advanced AnalyticsVideo Analytics
Artificial Intelligence
Digital Twins
IoT
HPC
Cyber Security
Blockchain
Inno
vatio
n M
anag
emen
t
Des
ign
Intelligent Automation
Maturing
Scaling
Emerging
Maturing
Scaling
Emerging
Cre
ativ
e
Technical
Channels Data-Driven
Sensors & Automation
Computing & Infrastructure
Security
TECHNOLOGIES
• A
I-po
wer
ed in
nova
tion
• S
usta
inab
le in
nova
tion
• In
nova
tion
sprin
ts
• In
nova
tion
cultu
re
embe
dded
in th
e
orga
niza
tion
• C
row
d in
nova
tion
• D
ata-
driv
en
inno
vatio
n
• D
esig
n th
inki
ng/h
uman
-cen
tere
d
desi
gn
• H
acka
thon
s
• B
uyin
g in
nova
tive
star
t-up
s
• In
nova
tion
stud
ios
/ la
bs
• A
I as
desi
gner
• La
b as
a s
ervi
ce
• In
nova
tion
Day
• M
icro
-ser
vice
s fro
nt e
nds
• B
usin
ess
desi
gn•
Des
ign
syst
em•
Dat
a th
inki
ng•
Dat
a-dr
iven
des
ign
• C
onve
rsat
iona
l UI
• M
otio
n de
sign
• U
I des
ign
• D
iagn
ostic
an
alyt
ics
• D
esig
n th
inki
ng• A
gile
SA
Fe
• W
eb U
X
• A
cces
sibi
lity
desi
gn• R
emot
e re
al-t
ime
colla
bora
tion
•AI I
oT ro
botic
sup
ervi
sion
• U
X fo
r AR
/ VR
• P
WA
(SPA
)
• U
X fo
r voi
ce, g
estu
re
• O
rg. d
esig
n
• XR
des
ign
• S
EO +
UX
= S
XO
• C
ultu
re d
esig
n
• D
esig
nOps
• M
ood
as in
terfa
ce
• H
aptic
feed
back
(des
ign)
• Di
gitiz
atio
n
of c
onte
nt
• O
mni
-cha
nnel
• In
tera
ctiv
e ob
ject
s
• Vo
ice
inte
ract
ion
• C
hatb
ots
(nar
row
AI)
• C
onte
xtua
l mes
sagi
ng (n
arro
w A
I)
• (B
road
AI)
inte
ract
ion
• Au
gmen
ted
expe
rienc
e
• Sm
art m
ater
ials
• M
obilit
y
• Bus
iness
agil
ity
• Citiz
en se
rvice
s agil
ity
• Dat
a go
vern
ance
stra
tegie
s
(GDPR, e
tc.)
• Ser
vice
desig
n / d
esign
think
ing
• Agil
e co
ntra
cting
• Sca
ling
agile
• Agil
e HR
• Tea
m-le
vel a
gile
• Scr
um
• Kan
ban
• Lea
n po
rtfoli
o
man
agem
ent
• Dev
Ops /
DeveS
ecOps
• Clou
d na
tive
deve
lopm
ent
• Virtu
al AI s
oftware engineers
• Failu
re injectio
n (e.g.,
“Chaos M
onkey” by
Net�ix)
• AI /
self-h
ealing
• Toolchain orchestr
ation
• Release
automation
• Low code / n
o code
• Microse
rvices
• Cloud nativ
e
development /
PaaS
• DevS
ecOps
• Agile m
ethods
/ Lean
• Infra
structure
as code
• Virtu
alizatio
n
• Release
automation
• SaaS
• Contin
uous
integration (C
I)
/ Contin
uous
delivery
(CD)
• IaaS cloud
• Containeriz
ation and sc
aling
• Serve
rless
computing
• Cloud-enabled data modernization
• Micro-service maturity
patterns
• Agile
• Orchestration• OS abstraction• Move to
micro-services• Softw
are-de�ned
networking
• DevOps
• API exposure
• Virtual m
achines
• Open source
• PaaS
• Cloud
• Containers
• Testing
• Framework
• Operational integration
• Cloud native security
• Service meshes• Distributed services
• Patterns
• Sensor-based, real-time data
streams and services
• X-platforms
- Xamarin
- RX Java
- React Native
• Arti�cial intelligence /
machine learning
• Personalization
• Kotlin
• Swift
• Voice
• Responsive web
• Objective C
• Java
• Progressive web app (PWA)
• X-platform ionic
• Advanced analytics
• Complex of�ine application
• Super-personalization
• IoT identities (IAM)
• 5G
• X-platform �utter
• Human machine interfaces
• Augmented reality
• Wearables• Blockchain / DLT
• Digital companion
• Virtual retina display (VRD)
• AI and machine
Learning in AR
• Hardware miniaturization
• Logistics use cases
• Training use cases
• Manufacturing use cases
• Retail use cases
• AR headsets
• Gaming AR
• Affordable hardware
• Interaction / collaboration
use cases
• Data connectivity / 5G
• AR apps
• Digital twin
• AR in cars
• Edge computing
• AR contact lenses
• Eye tap
• Traditional BI reporting
• Enterprise data hub/data lake, data warehouse
• Assisted analytics(data quality / auto curation)
• Cognitive analytics (broad AI)
• Data as a product/data partnership
• Contextual data analytics(social, voice, video, image, location, IoT)
• Proliferation of metadata management
• Predictive and prescriptive analytics
• Data visualization / mobile dashboards
• Interactive / self-service analytics / BI
• Data governance strategies (GDPR, etc.)
• Data cloud storage and analysis
• Automated analytics(narrow AI)
• Deep neural networks
• Data curation
• Descriptive analytics
• Diagnostic analytics
• Video analytics as a service
• Video algorithms in the cloud
• Value-added subscriptions
• Crowd analytics
• Video compression
• Non-visible light spectrum
• Complex object recognition
• Distributed algorithms (edge, on premise, cloud)
• AI neural networks for video analytics
• Industry 4.0
• 3D modelling (AR / VR)
• Supervised training (machine learning)
• Simple object recognition
• OCR
• Facial recognition
• Facial analytics
• Safety and security
• Autonomous driving
• Automated video annotation
• Unsupervised training (machine learning)
• Behavioral analytics
• Arti�cial General Intelligence (AGI)
• Unsupervised learning /
Deep neural networks• Adversarial machine
learning
• Auto machine learning
• Democratized AI
• Data curation
• Reinforcement learning
• Explainable AI
• Ethics in AI
• Applied AI / arti�cial narrow intelligence (ANI)
• Supervised learning
• Brain-computer interface (BCI)
• Self-aware AI
• Edge AI / Distributed AI• Quantum computing
• AI arms race
• Augmentend reality + digital twin
• Holographic digital twins
• Machine learning
• 3D printing
• Open APIs
• Geospatial information
systems (GIS)• Manufacturing
execution systems (MES)
• PLM / PDM /
CAD systems
• Predictive analytics
• Big data lakes
• 3D models
• 5G connectivity• Consumer IoT
• Sensor data
• Industrial IoT
• Space and drone data
• Real-time maps
• Digital mirror world
(e.g., "The Matrix")
• IoT platform offerings specialized in
design and operate scenarios
• Processing and analysis
of data moved to edge
of network
• Interactive objects /
voice-based services
• Mobile platforms for
management of IoT
devices• Industry and public
sector use cases
• IoT advanced analytics
• IoT data visualization
• IoT-enabled
automation
• Public cloud IoT
platform services
• IoT security
• Machine-to-
machine
• Mobility
• Intelligent and autonomous
devices
• IoT business scale• Smart materials
• Automating interactions,
judgment, em
pathy, sentiment
• Contextual data analytics
(social, voice, video,
image, location, IoT)
• RPA integrated with
advanced analytics /
narrow AI
• Basic virtual agents
with human back-up
• Video / image analytics
• Complex process /
transaction automation
• Deep learning / neural
networks / narrow AI
• Speech recognition
/ natural language
processing
• Supervised
machine
learning
• RPA (simple,
rules-based)• Clerical work
automation
• Text-based,
scripted
chatbots
• Cognitive / broader AI / deep
neural networks
• Fully autonomous virtual agents
• RPA + process mining
• Quantum
computing
• General AI
• Business digital assistance / AI
• Deep neural networks /
application-speci�c
integrated circuit (ASIC)
• Augmented and virtual
reality (AR / VR)• Serverless
infrastructure
• Com
posable
infrastructure
• Hyper
converged
infrastructure
• Hyperscale
public clouds
• Grid
computing
• Autonomous cars
• GDPR• 5G
• Quantum
encryption
• Field programm
able gate
array (FPGA) chips
• Graphic processing unit
(GPU
) / holographic
processing unit (HPU
)
• Automated AI-based response
• Intelligence-driven security
monitoring / m
achine
learning / narrow AI
• Critical infrastructure /
IoT security
• IT + OT convergence
• Proactive threat
hunting
• Supply chain
security
• Netw
ork-centric
perimeter
security
• Reactive,
siloed
cybersecurity
• Identity
managem
ent
• Malw
are
protection
• Intrusion
detection /
prevention• Digital
forensics
• Holistic threat surface
defence
• Ransom
ware
• Cloud, m
obile device
security
• Gov’t regulation
(e.g., GD
PR)
• Proactive threat hunting
• Cybersecurity bots
• DevSec O
ps• AI-driven attacks
• Security of autonomous AI
systems
• Social in�uencing meddling /
dis-information
• Security schem
e for distributed
devices in a network
• Industrialized / scaled blockchain
• Blockchain as a service
• Maintaining personal
identity across accounts
• Exchange of big data
• Blockchain proof of
concepts
• Blockchain labs
• Settlem
ent applications
• Trade-based applications• Transactional applications
• Governm
ent research• Asset tracking
• Digital
currencies
• Bitcoin
• Sm
art contract
framew
ork
• Energy applications
• Blockchain consortium
s
• GD
PR
solutions• P
rivacy by design
• Business applications using public
blockchains
Tech Future Quantum Computing
We map the Tech Futures to the emerging technologies as defined and monitored in the Future Scan.Tech Futures are still beyond the time horizon of the Future Scan
Explore Future Scan 2.0 in detail here.
Lens #4 - CGI Emerging Technologies Future Scan 2.0
Future Scan 2.0/Compute & Infrastructure/High-Performance Computing/Quantum Computing | Future Scan 2.0/Data/Artificial Intelligence/Quantum Computing19
Quantum Computing (QC)
RigettiComputing (https://www.rigetti.com/) | IonQ (https://ionq.com/) | D-Wave (https://www.dwavesys.com/quantum-computing/) | IBM (https://www.research.ibm.com/quantum-computing/) | Google (https://ai.google/research/teams/applied-science/quantum/) | Alibaba (https://damo.alibaba.com/labs/quantum/) | Quantum Computing Report (https://quantumcomputingreport.com/players/universities/)
Neuralink ( https://www.neuralink.com/ ) | LieberResearch Group – Harvard University ( http://cml.harvard.edu/ ) | Facebook with University of California San Francisco – thought-to-text interface | Kernel ( https://kernel.co/ ) | The Wyss Center – Geneva ( https://www.wysscenter.ch/ )
Brain Computer Interface (BCI)
U.S. NIST –Post-Quantum Project (https://csrc.nist.gov/projects/post-quantum-cryptography) | OpenQuantumSafe (https://openquantumsafe.org/) | New Hope (https://newhopecrypto.org/) | Microsoft (https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/project/post-quantum-cryptography/) | Cloudflare (https://blog.cloudflare.com/towards-post-quantum-cryptography-in-tls/)
Post-Quantum Cryptography (PQC)
Wikipedia on DNA (https://catalogdna.com/) | Microsoft Research (https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/project/dna-storage/) | (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-41228-8) | University of Washington (https://www.washington.edu/news/2019/03/21/first-fully-automated-dna-data-storage/) | Nature (https://www.nature.com/news/how-dna-could-store-all-the-world-s-data-1.20496)
Data Storage
Mirrorworld (https://www.wired.com/story/mirrorworld-ar-next-big-tech-platform/) | SingularityHubblog series Spatial Web3.0 (https://singularityhub.com/2019/09/06/introducing-the-augmented-world-of-2030/ | https://singularityhub.com/2019/09/20/the-technologies-giving-rise-to-the-spatial-web/) | OTOY RNDR (https://rendertoken.com/#roadmap) | Magic Leap (https://www.magicleap.com/) | 6D.ai (https://www.6d.ai) | MicroVision (https://www.microvision.com) | Facebook Reality Labs (https://research.fb.com/category/augmented-reality-virtual-reality/) | Microsoft Research (https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/blog/inside-ar-
Digital DMW or Spatial Web 3.0
Appendix B: Ecosystem / Sources
20
Global Futures
POLIT
ICS
ENVIRONMEN
T
ECON
OMY
TECHNO
LOGY
SOCIETY
Art
s &
Cul
ture
Beh
avio
ral &
Sci
ence
Citi
es &
Urb
aniz
atio
nC
ivic
Par
ticip
atio
nD
igita
l Eco
nom
y &
Soci
ety
Futu
re o
f Hea
lth &
Hea
lthca
re
Gende
r & P
arity
Human
Rights
Humanitaria
n Action
Justice & Legal Infrastructure
Leadership in the 4th Industrial Revolution
Media & Entertainment
Mental Health
Role of Religion
Social Innovation
ValuesWorkforce & EmploymentYouth Perspectives
5GAdvanced Manufacturing & Production
Advanced Material
Artificial Intelligence & Robotics
Biotechnology
Blockchain
Cybersecurity
Digital identity
4th Industrial R
evolution
Future of Mobility
Hum
an Enhancement
Innovation
Internet of Things
Neu
rosc
ienc
e
Spa
ce
Pre
cisi
on M
edic
ine
Virtu
al &
Aug
men
ted
Rea
lity
Ble
nded
Fin
ance
Circ
ular
Eco
nom
y
Emer
ging
Mul
tinat
iona
ls
Entre
pren
eurs
hip
Fam
ily B
usine
ss
Finan
cial &
Mone
tary S
ystem
Future of Economic Progress
Geo-EconomicsElicit E
conomySustainable Development
International Trade & Investment
BiodiversityClimate ChangeEnvironment & Natural Resource Security
Forests
Future of Energy
Future of Food
Oceans
Plastics and the environement
Water
Agile governance
Arctic
Corruption
Geopolitics
Global governance
Global health
Global risks
Infrastructure
International securityInternet governance M
igra
tion
Nuc
lear
sec
urity
Educ
atio
n &
Skills
Futu
re o
f Con
sum
ptio
n
Age
ing
Inclusive Desig
n
3D Printing
Batteries
Drones
Cor
pora
te G
over
nanc
e
Pub
lic fi
nanc
e &
soc
ial p
rote
ctio
n
Appendix C: Acknowledgements
We thank our innovation and emerging technology community of experts around the world for their
assistance in developing this Tech Futures research. We also would like to recognize particularly the
significant contributions made by the following CGI experts:
Ron Brandt, Germany
Florin Filip, Canada
Dr. Rahul Ghodke, India
Anne Rajkumari, Netherlands
Ralf Schlenker, United States
Martin Škořepa, Czech Republic
Sumit Shah, United States
Conny Svensson, Sweden
Mark Van Engelen, Canada
Craig Wallace, United Kingdom
Geoff Whitemore, United Kingdom
21
Global Futures
POLIT
ICS
ENVIRONMEN
T
ECON
OMY
TECHNO
LOGY
SOCIETY
Art
s &
Cul
ture
Beh
avio
ral &
Sci
ence
Citi
es &
Urb
aniz
atio
nC
ivic
Par
ticip
atio
nD
igita
l Eco
nom
y &
Soci
ety
Futu
re o
f Hea
lth &
Hea
lthca
re
Gende
r & P
arity
Human
Rights
Humanitaria
n Action
Justice & Legal Infrastructure
Leadership in the 4th Industrial Revolution
Media & Entertainment
Mental Health
Role of Religion
Social Innovation
ValuesWorkforce & EmploymentYouth Perspectives
5GAdvanced Manufacturing & Production
Advanced Material
Artificial Intelligence & Robotics
Biotechnology
Blockchain
Cybersecurity
Digital identity
4th Industrial R
evolution
Future of Mobility
Hum
an Enhancement
Innovation
Internet of ThingsN
euro
scie
nce
Spa
ce
Pre
cisi
on M
edic
ine
Virtu
al &
Aug
men
ted
Rea
lity
Ble
nded
Fin
ance
Circ
ular
Eco
nom
y
Emer
ging
Mul
tinat
iona
ls
Entre
pren
eurs
hip
Fam
ily B
usine
ss
Finan
cial &
Mone
tary S
ystem
Future of Economic Progress
Geo-EconomicsElicit E
conomySustainable Development
International Trade & Investment
BiodiversityClimate ChangeEnvironment & Natural Resource Security
Forests
Future of Energy
Future of Food
Oceans
Plastics and the environement
Water
Agile governance
Arctic
Corruption
Geopolitics
Global governance
Global health
Global risks
Infrastructure
International securityInternet governance M
igra
tion
Nuc
lear
sec
urity
Educ
atio
n &
Skills
Futu
re o
f Con
sum
ptio
n
Age
ing
Inclusive Desig
n
3D Printing
Batteries
Drones
Cor
pora
te G
over
nanc
e
Pub
lic fi
nanc
e &
soc
ial p
rote
ctio
n
22
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