ReligioninIreland:RecentTrendsandPossibleFutures

Dublin,24August2017

StephenBullivantProfessorofTheologyandtheSociologyofReligion

StMary’sUniversity,Twickenham

@SSBullivant@BXVICentre

• Irish Census data• Summary findings from 2016: overall religious affiliation;regional breakdown

• Historical trends (since 1961)

• European Social Survey data (2002-14)• Comparison with Census – why different?• More detailed picture of religiosity in Ireland – upbringing;attendance; prayer frequency

• Comparison with 14 other European countries• Youth (16-35 year olds)

• Census 2021• Consultation re possible changes to (and/or expansion) ofway Census asks about religion… what you need to know.

Three Aims

ReligioninCensus2016

79%

3% 4% 2%

10% 3%

ReligiousaffiliationofthepopulationofIreland(Census2016)

CatholicChurchofIreland/AnglicanOtherChristianNon-ChristianreligionNoreligion+Notstated

Noreligion+ includesallthoseselectingthe"Noreligion"categoryitself,plusthoseoptingfor"LapsedCatholic"(8094),"Atheist"(7477),"Agnostic"(5006),"JediKnight"(2050),"Pastafarian"(92),and"LapsedChurchofIreland"(74).

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Monaghan

Cavan

Roscommon

Leitrim

Waterford

Limerick

Cork

Wicklow

Westmeath

Meath

Longford

Kilkenny

Dublin

Religiousaffiliationbycounty(Census2016)

Catholic ChurchofIreland/Anglican Methodist/Presbyterian Other Noreligion

95% 94% 93% 92% 88% 87% 84% 78%

0% 0% 1% 2% 4% 4% 6% 10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1961 1971 1981 1991 2002 2006 2011 2016

CatholicandnonreligiousaffiliationinIrelandovertime(Censuses1961-2016)

Catholic Noreligion

92% 92% 90% 84%

2% 3% 4% 9%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2002 2006 2011 2016

CatholicandnonreligiousaffiliationofnativeIrishpopulationovertime(Censuses

2002-16)

Catholic Noreligion

• High-quality, academic social survey; same questions in 20-30European countries every two years, since 2002.

• Face-to-face interviews, random sample of whole population,very high response rates; good sample size (i.e., N = c. 2400;response rate = 61%, for Ireland in 2014)

• Latest publicly available data is 2014; 2016 wave due forrelease in October 2017

• Several religion-related questions asked!• Two-stage identity/affiliation question• ALSO: Upbringing, Attendance, prayer, personal religiosity,etc.

77% 83%

72% 72% 71% 70% 69%

19% 14%

21% 21% 23% 24% 26%

88% 87% 84% 78%

4% 4% 6% 10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

CatholicandnonreligiousaffiliationinIrelandovertime:EuropeanSocialSurvey(2002-14)vs

Census(2002-16)

ESSCatholic ESSNoreligion CensusCatholic CensusNoreligion

• Religious identity can be difficult to pin down:• Certain % unambiguously X; certain % unambiguously Y … but(potentially v substantial) %much more ambivalent• EXAMPLE: baptized and raised Catholic, married and ownkids baptized in RC; big part of family identity… but notsure what (if anything) still believe, haven’t practisedregularly in decades; deeply conflicted about ‘good’ ofChurch and role in society… “Catholic” or “No religion”?

• ‘What is your religion?’ questions consistently producesignificantly higher religious responses than other, more nuancedones.• Lots of interesting possible reasons…

Whythedifference?Whichquestionis“right”?

69%

2% 1% 1%

15%

10%

1%

26%

ReligiousaffiliationinIreland(ESS2014)

Catholic ProtestantOtherChristian Non-ChristianreligionsNoreligion(cradleNone) Noreligion(exCatholic)Noreligion(exOther)

Noreligion(combined)

BreakdownofNoreligionpopulationbyupbringing

The(still!)exceptionalreligiosityofIreland

90

72 7265 63

57 5752

4146 47

4034

3426

10

26 27 2934 37 39

4451 51 51 52

5964

70

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Christian(all)andnonreligiousaffiliationinselectedEuropeancountries(ESS2014)

Christian(all) Noreligion

51

3429

14 14 1310 9 9 8 8

6 5 4 47

17

25

45

26

50

5856

34

52

40

29

40 3934

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

ReligiousattendanceinselectedEuropeancountries(ESS2014)

Weeklyormore Never

67

57 54

39 36 34 32 29 29 27 25 2420 17 14

1016

2532

28

4439

34

5058

52 55 55 59 59

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Prayerfrequency(outsidereligiousservices)inselectedEuropeancountries

(ESS2014)

Weeklyormore Never

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75-84 85+

ReligiousaffiliationinIrelandbyagegroup(ESS2014)

Catholic Protestant Noreligion

40

17 1610 10

7 7 7 6 6 6 5 4 4 410

25

34

5358

32

60

38

57 57

38

45 4541

44

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Religiousattendanceof15-34yearoldsinselectedEuropeancountries(ESS2014)

Weeklyormore Never

53

36

2724 24 23 23 22

19 17 15 14 1311 9

7

17

25

45

26 50

58

5634 52 40

29

4039 34

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Prayerfrequencyof15-34yearoldsinselectedEuropeancountries(ESS2014)

Weeklyormore Never

• 5 July: Census 2021 announced, with funding for new questions• Speculation (e.g., in Irish Times) that religion q. could berevised, based on criticism of bluntness (‘too binary’) nature.

• Important for two reasons:1. Accurate data is important… quantity (and quality) of

religiosity in Ireland of intrinsic interest.2. Census data used in all sorts of ways, by all sorts of

stakeholders, to inform policy/practice etc. – governmentpolicy, but also (and rightly) used to support all kinds ofideas, lobbying etc.

3. All the more important given very large significance ofreligion in Ireland.

Census2021

THREE – tentative, initial - PROPOSALS…

1. Current question (‘What is your religion?’)must be kept.

(Disclaimer: I’m not a fan of current question; and if designing Census from scratch wouldask q. differently. HOWEVER…)

• Even seemingly minor changes in way religious affiliationquestions are asked can produce very different results.

• Different questions not directly comparable.• Significant changes to wording of q. would mean nomeaningful

comparison could be made to previous Censuses.• If trying to track religious identity over time, no way of

telling what % of any change ‘real’ or due to differentquestion

• However, inevitable that figures will be used in this way(even with caveats being made)

2. Addition of question regarding regularity ofreligious practice.

• Religious practice – i.e., actually giving up time out of one’sweek – most robust indicator of religiosity

• Allows distinction between active members, and thoseidentifying for other (cultural, family reasons); accurate data onthis useful to all ‘sides’

• Census allows for very detailed analysis of religious practice (byage, sex, local area, ethnic background, etc., etc.!)

• Esp. useful to have ‘weekly (or more)’, ‘occasional’, and neverattenders

• Census already asks about practice in relation to Irish-speaking:

3. Addition of question regarding religious (ornot) upbringing.

• ‘In what religion, if any, were you brought up?’ or similar• Helps to address some of ambiguity in ‘What is your religion?’ q

– e.g. allows people to affirm fact of Catholic background, evenif no longer feel it.

• Accurate gauge of growth/decline of different religiouscategories due to conversion or ‘nonversion’• What proportion of ‘No religion’ increase due to formerly

religious ‘leaving’, vs. immigration from less religiouscountries?

ReligioninIreland:RecentTrendsandPossibleFutures

StephenBullivantProfessorofTheologyandtheSociologyofReligion

StMary’sUniversity,Twickenham

@SSBullivant@BXVICentre