Monitoring the Philippine Social Weather - ANPOR the Philippine Social Weather ... SWS Exit Poll vs....

1

Title page

Cover

Monitoring the Philippine Social Weather

Gerardo A. Sandoval

Social Weather Stations, Philippines

Presentation for Asian Network for Public

Opinion Research (ANPOR), Bangkok, Thailand

26-29 November 2012

2

The SWS Mission

THE SWS MISSION:

Education: So eyes may see social conditions

Conscientization: So hearts may feel social problems

Analysis: So minds may understand their solutions

THE SWS MOTTO:

“Quot homines tot sententiae”

Respect for diversity

Founded in 1985 as a Private,

Non-stock, Non-profit Organization

3

AN ACADEMIC RESEARCH INSTITUTE

AN ACADEMIC RESEARCH INSTITUTE:

Social sciences, multidisciplinary

Politically non-partisan

Generates data on public issues

Publishes its findings

Banks all data for public research

Embargoes are strictly temporary

4

Professional Networks

PROFESSIONAL NETWORKS Philippine Social Science Council (PSSC), since 1986

Marketing and Opinion Research Society of the Philippines (MORES),

since 1986

International Social Survey Programme (ISSP), since 1990

American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR), since 1993

World Association for Public Opinion Research (WAPOR), since 1993

Inter-University Consortium for Political and Social Research (ICPSR),

since 1994

Comparative Study of Electoral Systems (CSES), since 1995

World Values Survey (WVS), since 1995

Roper Center for Public Opinion Research, since 1996

International Society for Quality-of-Life Studies (ISQOLS), since 1998

East Asia Barometer, since 2001

Asian Barometer, since 2005

Asian Network for Public Opinion Research (ANPOR), since 2012

5

SELF-SUSTAINED OPERATIONS

SELF-SUSTAINED OPERATIONS:

Research and consultancy contracts

Survey subscriptions

Commissioned surveys

Research grants

Publications charges

Fellows’ membership fees

6

RP Map and Geographic data

• 4 major areas

• 17 regions

• 80 provinces

• 1,491 municipalities

• 143 cities

• 42,028 villages

• 301,000 km2

• 7,107 islands

• 2010 population = 92.34M

7

“Poverty has always been on the SWS research agenda”

POVERTY has always been

on the SWS research agenda.

SELF-RATED POVERTY

is SWS’s global innovation for

rapid-monitoring of poverty

over time.

8

SRP showcard

QUESTION ON SELF-RATED POVERTY

Question: Saan po ninyo ilalagay ang inyong pamilya sa kard na ito?

(Where would you place your family in this card?)

HINDI MAHIRAP

(Not poor)

MAHIRAP

(Poor)

MAHIRAP

(Poor)

HINDI MAHIRAP

(Not poor)

Languages Poor Not Poor

Tagalog Mahirap Hindi Mahirap

Cebuano Pobre Dili Pobre

Bicolano Pobre Bacong Pobre

Ilocano Napanglaw Saan nga Napanglaw

Ilonggo Imol Indi Imol

Pangasinense Mairap Aliwan Mairap

Waray Pobre Diri Pobre

Maguindanon Miskinan Dikena Miskinan

9

1983 1986 1992 1998 2001 2004 2010 2012

10

30

50

70

Chart: SELF-RATED POVERTY: FAMILIES WHO ARE “MAHIRAP”

SELF-RATED POVERTY: FAMILIES WHO ARE “MAHIRAP”,

PHILIPPINES, APR 1983 TO AUG 2012

Self-Rated Poverty Question: Where would you place your family in this card? (Not poor, On the line, Poor)

*Note: The NSCB figures, which compare income of the year to the official poverty line, are plotted in June of the year.

MARCOS C. AQUINO RAMOS ESTRADA ARROYO B. AQUINO

% o

f fa

milie

s

47%

NSCB “Unrefined” Poverty*

Self-Rated Poverty

NSCB “Refined” Poverty, 2-08-11

26%

21%

10

1986 * 1992 1998 2001 2004 2010 2012

10

30

50

70

90

SELF-RATED POVERTY: FAMILIES WHO ARE “MAHIRAP”,

BY LOCATION, JUL 1985 TO AUG 2012

Chart: SELF-RATED POVERTY: FAMILIES WHO ARE “MAHIRAP”, By Location

Self-Rated Poverty Question: Where would you place your family in this card? (Not poor, On the line, Poor)


NCR 35%

Visayas 63% Mindanao 57%

Bal. Luzon 38% % o

f fa

milie

s

11

“Statistics on hunger, SR food poverty, and the SRP are SWS innovations…”

Statistics on hunger, self-rated

food-poverty, and the self-rated

poverty line are SWS innovations.

12

1998 2001 2004 2010 2012

5

10

15

20

Note: Don’t Know and Refused responses are not shown. Q: Nitong nakaraang 3 buwan, nangyari po ba kahit minsan na ang inyong pamilya ay nakaranas ng gutom at wala kayong makain? KUNG OO: Nangyari po ba ‘yan ng MINSAN LAMANG, MGA ILANG BESES, MADALAS, o PALAGI?

DEGREE OF HUNGER IN HOUSEHOLDS,

PHILIPPINES: JUL 1998 TO AUG 2012

21.0%

18.0%

ESTRADA ARROYO AQUINO

3.0%

% o

f h

ou

seh

old

s

Total Hunger (Ave. 1998-2012 = 14.4%)

Severe (Ave. 1998-2012 = 3.5%)

Moderate (Ave. 1998-2012 = 11.0%)

13

“All SWS surveys are amenable…”

All SWS surveys are amenable to

SOCIAL CLASS-ANALYSIS, using

categories familiar to business

research. Social class is a

powerful discriminant of many

Social Weather conditions.

14

Criteria for eco-class 1


CRITERIA FOR SOCIO-ECONOMIC

CLASSIFICATION OF HOUSEHOLDS

Households are classified into four groups as follows:

AB (Upper Class) - the most affluent group whose homes and lifestyles exude an obvious disregard for or lack of economizing.

C (Middle Class) - middle class households, whose homes and lifestyles reflect comfortable living and the capacity to indulge in a few luxuries.

D (Lower Class) - lower-middle class household who have some comfort and means but basically thrive on a hand-to-mouth existence.

E (Extremely Lower Class)- those who evidently face great difficulties in meeting their basic survival needs.

15


CRITERIA FOR SOCIO-ECONOMIC

CLASSIFICATION (CONTINUED)

16

ESTRADA ARROYO AQUINO

* % Will be better minus % Will be worse.

Question. Sa darating na 12 buwan, ano sa palagay ninyo ang mangyayari sa ekonomiya ng Pilipinas? Masasabi ba ninyo na ito ay...[BUBUTI; KAPAREHO LANG; SASAMA; HINDI ALAM]

NET OPTIMISM* ON THE ECONOMY, BY CLASS,

SEP 1998 TO MAY 2012

2008

0 ABC

+11 D

+3 E

1998 2001 2004 2010 2012

+10

+30

+50

-10

-30

-50

17

“Gainers/losers are standard global indicators…”

Gainers/losers and

optimists/pessimists are standard

global indicators of trends in the

quality of life.

18


Question : Comparing your quality of life these days to how it was 12 months ago, would you say that your quality of life is ... (Better now, Same as before, Worse now) Gainers :"Better now" Losers: "Worse now“

CHANGE IN QUALITY OF LIFE OVER PAST 12 MONTHS,

APR 1983 TO AUG 2012

% o

f ad

ult

s

GAINERS

LOSERS

21%

28%

1983 1986 1992 1998 2001 2004 2010 2012

10

30

50

70

19

1984 1986 1992 1998 2001 2004 2010 2012

10

30

50

70

EXPECTED CHANGE IN QUALITY OF LIFE IN NEXT 12 MONTHS

EXPECTED CHANGE IN QUALITY OF LIFE IN NEXT 12 MONTHS,

APR 1984 TO AUG 2012

MARCOS CORY AQUINO RAMOS ESTRADA ARROYO BENIGNO AQUINO III

Question. In your opinion, what will be the quality of your life in the coming 12 months? Would you say that it ... (Will be better, Same, Will be worse)

Optimists : "Will be better“ Pessimists: "Will be worse"

% o

f a

du

lts

34%

7%

OPTIMISTS

PESSIMISTS

20

“Monitoring ratings of governance…

SWS surveys monitor ratings of

governance in the Philippines.

21

C. AQUINO RAMOS ESTRADA ARROYO B. AQUINO

NET SATISFACTION RATINGS* OF PRESIDENTS,

PHILIPPINES, MAY 1986 TO AUGUST 2012

* Net ratings = % Satisfied minus % Dissatisfied correctly rounded. Survey Data: Social Weather Stations surveys.

+67

1986 1992 1998 2001 2004 2010 2012

+10

+30

+50

+70

-10

-30

-50

22

* Net figures (% Satisfied minus % Dissatisfied) correctly rounded.

NET* SATISFACTION WITH GENERAL PERFORMANCE

OF THE NATIONAL ADMINISTRATION, FEB 1989 – AUG 2012

C. AQUINO RAMOS ESTRADA ARROYO B. AQUINO

1986 1992 1998 2001 2004 2010 2012

+10

+30

+50

+70

-10

-30

-50

+62

Net*

Satisfaction

23

Overall performance rating +56 +46 +44 +62

Helping the victims of disasters +58 +50 +73

Helping the poor +51 +44 +35 +59

Promoting welfare of overseas Filipino workers (OFWs) +46 +49 +39 +54

Foreign relations +43 +46 +33 +51

Defending the country's territorial rights +35 +50

Distributing lands to deserving tillers under land reform +34 +45

Transparency in providing info about gov't activities +27 +42 +44

Fighting terrorism +27 +33 +19 +43

Providing jobs -17 (Mar06) +43

Fighting crimes +34 +31 +16 +42

Promoting foreign investments in our country 27 +33 +42

Eradicating graft and corruption +15 +17 +12 +40

Reconciliation with Muslim rebels +19 +22 +14 +33

Reconciliation with Communist rebels +20 +25 + 9 +31

Ensuring that no family will be hungry + 9 +10 + 1 +26

Fighting inflation + 8 0 - 6 +19

Ensuring that oil firms don’t take advantage of oil prices - 3 - 3 -12 +13

Resolving the Maguindanao massacre case with justice -18 -17 -16 - 4

* Net figures (% Satisfied minus % Dissatisfied) correctly rounded.

Dec11 Mar12 May12 Aug12

NET* SATISFACTION WITH THE NATIONAL ADMINISTRATION ON

SPECIFIC ISSUES, DEC 2011 – AUG 2012

Moderate

Neutral

Good

Very

good

Excellent

24

“Monitoring ratings of governance…

SWS conducts pre-election and

exits polls.

25

Ex-98, President (page 1 of 2)

Presidential Votes: SWS Exit Poll vs. Comelec Count May 11, 1998 National Elections

(page 1 of 2)

Comelec Count* SWS Exit Poll**

* COMELEC as of 27 May 1998; basis of proclamation on 28 May 1998

** Sample Size = 5,538; Error Margin = ±1.3% (top position); excludes Marcos

26

Ex-98, President (page 2 of 2)

Presidential Votes: SWS Exit Poll vs. Comelec Count May 11, 1998 National Elections

(page 2 of 2)

* COMELEC as of 27 May 1998; basis of proclamation on 28 May 1998

** Sample Size = 5,538; Error Margin = ±1.3% (top position); excludes Marcos


27

ex-98, Vice-President (page 1 of 2)

* COMELEC as of 27 May 1998; basis of proclamation on 28 May 1998.

** Sample size= 5,298; error margin= ±1.4% (top position).

Vice-Presidential Votes: SWS Exit Poll vs. Comelec Count May 11, 1998 National Elections

(page 1 of 2) Comelec Count* SWS Exit Poll**

28

ex-98, Vice-President (page 2 of 2)

* COMELEC as of 27 May 1998; basis of proclamation on 28 May 1998.

** Sample size= 5,298; error margin= ±1.4% (top position).

Vice-Presidential Votes: SWS Exit Poll vs. Comelec Count May 11, 1998 National Elections

(page 2 of 2)


29

May 14, 2001 Senatorial Elections (page 1 of 2)

COMPARING OFFICIAL RESULTS WITH SWS EXIT POLL May 14, 2001 Senatorial Elections

(page 1 of 2)

58.7%

42.5%

41.9%

40.9%

40.7%

40.7%

40.5%

39.7%

39.1%

38.1%

38.1%

37.9%

37.8%

35%

34.8%

31.5%

29.5%

26.8%

26%

24.6%

24.3%

58.6%

40%

39.2%

37.6%

39.5%

37.6%

37.1%

38.1%

36.6%

34.8%

34.5%

35.2%

34.5%

32.1%

31.1%

26.4%

26.6%

22.7%

23%

22.2%

21.5%

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

De Castro

Flavier

Osmeña

Drilon

Arroyo

Magsaysay

Villar

Pangilinan

Angara

Lacson

Ejercito Estrada

Recto

Honasan

Enrile

Defensor-Santiago

Puno

Tañada

Mercado

Pagdanganan

Herrera

Monsod

COMELEC RESULTS

As of August 30, 2001

SWS EXIT POLL

May 15, 2001 Broadcast

58.7%

42.5%

41.9%

40.9%

40.7%

40.7%

40.5%

39.7%

39.1%

38.1%

38.1%

37.9%

37.8%

35%

34.8%

31.5%

29.5%

26.8%

26%

24.6%

24.3%

58.6%

40%

39.2%

37.6%

39.5%

37.6%

37.1%

38.1%

36.6%

34.8%

34.5%

35.2%

34.5%

32.1%

31.1%

26.4%

26.6%

22.7%

23%

22.2%

21.5%

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

De Castro

Flavier

Osmeña

Drilon

Arroyo

Magsaysay

Villar

Pangilinan

Angara

Lacson

Ejercito Estrada

Recto

Honasan

Enrile

Defensor-Santiago

Puno

Tañada

Mercado

Pagdanganan

Herrera

Monsod

COMELEC RESULTS


SWS EXIT POLL


58.7%

42.5%

41.9%

40.9%

40.7%

40.7%

40.5%

39.7%

39.1%

38.1%

38.1%

37.9%

37.8%

35%

34.8%

31.5%

29.5%

26.8%

26%

24.6%

24.3%

58.6%

40%

39.2%

37.6%

39.5%

37.6%

37.1%

38.1%

36.6%

34.8%

34.5%

35.2%

34.5%

32.1%

31.1%

26.4%

26.6%

22.7%

23%

22.2%

21.5%

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

De Castro

Flavier

Osmeña

Drilon

Arroyo

Magsaysay

Villar

Pangilinan

Angara

Lacson

Ejercito Estrada

Recto

Honasan

Enrile

Defensor-Santiago

Puno

Tañada

Mercado

Pagdanganan

Herrera

Monsod

COMELEC RESULTS


SWS EXIT POLL


30

May 14, 2001 Senatorial Elections (page 2 of 2)

58.7%

42.5%

41.9%

40.9%

40.7%

40.7%

40.5%

39.7%

39.1%

38.1%

38.1%

37.9%

37.8%

35%

34.8%

31.5%

29.5%

26.8%

26%

24.6%

24.3%

58.6%

40%

39.2%

37.6%

39.5%

37.6%

37.1%

38.1%

36.6%

34.8%

34.5%

35.2%

34.5%

32.1%

31.1%

26.4%

26.6%

22.7%

23%

22.2%

21.5%

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

De Castro

Flavier

Osmeña

Drilon

Arroyo

Magsaysay

Villar

Pangilinan

Angara

Lacson

Ejercito Estrada

Recto

Honasan

Enrile

Defensor-Santiago

Puno

Tañada

Mercado

Pagdanganan

Herrera

Monsod

COMELEC RESULTS


SWS EXIT POLL


COMPARING OFFICIAL RESULTS WITH SWS EXIT POLL May 14, 2001 Senatorial Elections

(page 2 of 2)

The SWS 2010 Election Surveys 31

Nov Dec Dec Jan Feb Mar Mar Apr May May 4-8 5-10 27-28 21-24 24-28 19-22 28-30 16-19 2-3 10 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010

Aquino III

Villar

Estrada

Teodoro

Gordon

Villanueva

THE 2010 PRESIDENTIAL RACE

* * * * * * * 0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Estrada

Villar


•For the first time in Philippine history, a statistical

sample of voters was polled only 50+ meters away

from Voting Centers (VCs).

•From 802 randomly chosen exit poll VCs, SWS

interviewed an unprecedentedly massive total of

52,573 voters.

•The exit poll’s average absolute differences from

Comelec percentages were only 0.401 in the P-

count and 0.399 in the VP-count.

•In the senatorial count, the correlation of exit poll

ranks with Comelec ranks was .992.

THE HISTORIC TV5/SWS 2010 EXIT POLL


PRESIDENTIAL VOTES: TV5-SWS EXIT POLL VS. FINAL

OFFICIAL COMELEC TALLY, PHILIPPINES, MAY 10, 2010

42.08

26.25

15.42

11.33

3.12

1.39

0.15

0.13

43.34

26.38

14.73

10.25

3.4

1.4

AQUINO

ESTRADA

VILLAR

TEODORO

VILANUEVA

GORDON

PERLAS

MADRIGAL

DE LOS REYES

COMELEC Count* TV5-SWS Exit Poll**

0.13

0.23 0.12

0.15

* Based on 238 COCs, June 8, 2010, 3:17 pm

** Sample size: 52,573

AVE. ABSOLUTE

DIFFERENCE: 0.401


VICE-PRESIDENTIAL VOTES: TV5-SWS EXIT POLL VS. FINAL

OFFICIAL COMELEC TALLY, PHILIPPINES, MAY 10, 2010

* Based on 238 COCs, June 8, 2010, 3:17 pm

** Sample size: 52,573

41.65

39.58

12.21

2.89

2.3

1.04

0.18

0.15

42.52

39.17

11.51

2.92

1.81

1.43

0.2

0.43

BINAY

ROXAS

LEGARDA

FERNANDO

MANZANO

YASAY

SONZA

CHIPECO

COMELEC Count* TV5-SWS Exit Poll**

AVE. ABSOLUTE

DIFFERENCE: 0.399

35

SWS DATA LIBRARY

SWS DATA LIBRARY

Only one of its kind in Southeast Asia

Specialized on public opinion and

social survey research

36

SWS DATA BANK

SWS DATA BANK:

Archives all SWS survey datasets, as

well as selected foreign surveys

As of August 2012, the collection has

grown to 433 (214 National, 219

Subnational) Philippine datasets

encompassing 247,804 interviews on

66,885 survey questions and over

200 foreign datasets

37

www.sws.org.ph

#52 Malingap Street,

Sikatuna Village, Quezon City

Tels: 926-4308, 924-4456, 924-4458, 924-4465

E-mail: [email protected]

Monitoring the Philippine Social Weather - ANPOR the Philippine Social Weather ... SWS Exit Poll vs....

Documents

Transcript of Monitoring the Philippine Social Weather - ANPOR the Philippine Social Weather ... SWS Exit Poll vs....