Modeling of GHG Emission from Energy and AFOLU sector under

the Indonesian NDCRizaldi Boer1 dan Retno Gumiland Dewi2

1Centre for Climate Risk and Opportunity Management in South East Asia and Pacific (CCROM SEAP)-Bogor Agriculture University

2Center for Research on Energy (CRE) of Institut Teknologi Bandung

Target NDC Indonesia

• Emission reduction target will be reached mainly through two main sectors: – LULUCF: 60%; – Energy: 38%

MITIGATION ACTIONS TO MEET THE

NDC EMISSION

REDUCTION TARGET

ENERGY• Efficiency in final energy consumption

(75-100 % implemented)• Application of clean coal technology in

power plant (75 % implemented)• Electricity generation using renewable

sources (22.5% of energy mix)• Use of biofuel in transportation sector

(90-100 % implemented)• Additional gas distribution lines (100 %)• Additional compressed natural gas fuel

stations (100%)

LAND USE CHANGE AND FORESTRY• Reducing deforestation down to 0,45 ha-

0,25 Mha/year)*• Applying SFM principle (Mandatory for

RIL)*.• Land rehabilitation reached 12 million ha

by 2030 about 800,000 ha/year with survival rate of 90% .

• Peat restoration 2 million ha by 2030 with successful rate of 90%. (Note: * under REDD+)

• From I(NDC) the contribution of Indonesia to Global Emission Reduction Target under conditional will be about 7-8% (about 60% of this will be from LULUCF sector)

• Globally, contribution of LULUCF will be about 24% of the global emission reduction target

INDONESIAN CONTRIBUTION TO GLOBAL Source: Grassi et al. (2017)

3.8 (2.2-4.5)24% (14-29%) of

emission reduction in

(I)NDC

69.9

54.1

15.8

Emission at reference point

(base year or BAU

Emission reduction relative to the reference

point

Conditional (I)NDC LULUCF Contribution to

emission reduction in (I)NDC

Emiss

ion

or e

miss

ion

redu

ctio

n (G

tCO

2e)

All Sectors

75

70

65

60

55

50

45

40

Development of alternative scenarios for NDC toward food sovereignty

• There is a possibility to develop alternative scenario to NDC that can reduce reliance on food import and potential to reduce the emission further beyond 2030 and become net sink by 2050

• Mitigation rate should be more intensified than that NDC

• Crops productivity improvement should be further increase from the those of NDC scenarios and production target for CPO in 2050 should revisited and reduce to about half of the initial target

Source: Boer et al. 2017

Emission Scenarios of NDC and DD

Peat Fire

Deforestation

Peat Decompn.

Use of degraded land Timber Plantation

Source: Boer et al. 2017

Key mitigation actions in NDC and Alternative scenario (DD)

Additional investment 2.5 billion USD (until 2030)

Accelerating Social Forestry Program, targeting 12.7 Mha. Rate of the realization increased 7 times (60,000 ha/year (before

2016) to `570,000 ha/year (after 2016)

Crop Productivity and PI Improvement(Boer et al., 2017)

About 14 million ha of agriculture land located in forest area with very low productivity (TORA 9 Mha)

8.8

5.6

5.0

10.6

40

100

10

11.7

12.7

1.9

2.0

2.0

2.

0

t/ha

Food Balanced & Palm Oil ProductionSumber: Boer et al. 2017

• Expenses for importing food can be reduced significantly from the current level

• Indonesia can be exporting rice countries, and increase export earning of industrial crops (double of current’s)

• By reducing production target of palm oil by half, production surplus of palm oil is still high

• Enough for meeting demand for biofuel as proposed by the NDC

• Export earning still increase of the current by almost 3 times

ENERGY: Projection of Energy Supply Mix

-

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

Tran

spor

tatio

n

Indu

stria

l

Tran

spor

tatio

n

Indu

stria

l

Tran

spor

tatio

n

Indu

stria

l

Tran

spor

tatio

n

Indu

stria

l

Tran

spor

tatio

n

Indu

stria

l

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Mill

ion

BO

E

Coal Oil Gas Biomass Electricity Biofuel

-

200,000.0

400,000.0

600,000.0

800,000.0

1,000,000.0

1,200,000.0

1,400,000.0

1,600,000.0

1,800,000.0

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030M

illio

n BO

E Power Sector

Biofuel Geothermal BiomassaSolar & Wind Hydropower GasOil Coal

-

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Ton CO2e

Fujitive GHG Emission

Energy Used in Coal Mine

Energy Used in Petroleum Refining

Power

Transportation

Industry

Residensial

Commercial

Projection of GHG Emission Under BaU Scenario

Projection of Primary Energy Supply and Associated GHG Emission

-

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,000

BaU CM1 BaU CM1 CM2 BaU CM1 CM2 BaU CM1 CM2

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030Gg

CO2e

Komersial Residensial Industri Transport Pembangkit Listrik

-

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

4,500,000

BaU CM1 BaU CM1 CM2 BaU CM1 CM2 BaU CM1 CM2

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

kboe

Komersial Residensial Industri Transport Pembangkit Listrik

Industry

Power

Transportation

NDC INDONESIA: Emission Reduction Target and Cumulative Investment 2030

13

0 50 100 150 200

Reklamasi pasca tambang

Mitan to LPG, Jargas, SPBG

EBT Non Listrik

Clean Power Tech.

Konservasi energi

EBT Listrik

Reduksi GHG, Juta ton CO2eq

Un-conditional (Total 314 juta Ton CO2e, *

*) AFOLU Sector

RE in Electricity Supply Mix

Energy Conservation (EE)

Clean Coal Technology in Power

RE in other Sector (Transport and Industry)

Conversion Kerosene to LPG, Gas Pipe, and CNG

*Reclamation in Mining Area by MEMR Unconditional Scenario, 314 Ton CO2e

156.6 MTon CO2e, 1688 Trillion IDR

96.3 MTon CO2e, 92.3 Trillion IDR

31.8 MTon CO2e, 1619 Trillion IDR

13.8 MTon CO2e, 84 Trillion IDR

31.8 MTon CO2e, 1619 Trillion IDR

5.5 MTon CO2e, 4 Trillion IDR

GHG Emission Reduction, Million Ton Co2e

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Ren

Ren+

CCS

Stru

ct

Ren

Ren+

CCS

Stru

ct

Ren

Ren+

CCS

Stru

ct

Ren

Ren+

CCS

Stru

ct

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Billi

on $

EV & CNG

Biorefinery

Renewable power plant

Fossil power plant

*) Excluding additional infrastructure needed to support the operation of plants such as construction for gas pipelines, regasification plant (imported LNG), and to support the operation of electric vehicles or CNG such as recharging/ refueling stations; the costs associated with energy efficiency measures in buildings and industry have not been included

Cumulative: Rp 2145 Triliun by 2030

Ren = RE and EE Scenario, Ren+CCS = RE plus CCS scenario, Struct = Economic Structure Change

Investment Requirement for “Deep Decarbonization”

Epilogue• Indonesian pledge is quite progressive

(contribution to the global emission reduction target of (I)NDC, reaching between 7% and 8% and about 60% of it will be contributed by LULUCF

• Improvement of crop productivity and cropping intensity will be main key activities to realize the target including the restoration of peatland and limit the use of peatland for development

• Required high investment, particularly in energy sector (clean coal technology)

• A number of supporting policies including the financing have been issued recently