Mobile Megatrends 2014 by Vision Mobile

download Mobile Megatrends 2014 by Vision Mobile

of 76

  • date post

    23-Aug-2014
  • Category

    Mobile

  • view

    367
  • download

    1

Embed Size (px)

description

 

Transcript of Mobile Megatrends 2014 by Vision Mobile

  • Copyright VisionMobile 2014 Updated: 26 June 2014
  • Copyright VisionMobile 2014 Track developer trends & attitudes If you could speak to 10,000 app developers, what would you ask them? Learn digital business models Master the success patterns of ecosystem leaders and design effective digital business models VisionMobile | the ANALYSTS of the mobile Economy We#help#companies#track#developer#trends#and#learn#digital#business#models# Brand-Name clients trusted by the top names in tech 2 2 The Telco Innovation Toolbox: Economic Models for Managing Disruption and Reinventing the Telco 1 1 VisionMobile 2012. Some rights reserved.VisionMobile.com/Strategy 1 Developer Economics 2014 6th ed.
  • Copyright VisionMobile 2014 Knowledge. Passion. Innovation. Stijn Schuermans @stijnSchuermans Andreas Constantinou @andreascon Michael Vakulenko @MVakulenko Updated 10/4/2014 2014 VisionMobile. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.
  • Copyright VisionMobile 2014 4 Mobile Megatrends 2014 Apps: The Tip of the Iceberg Mobile ecosystems: Dont come late to the game Google: stripping Android Naked Handset business : Hardware is the new distribution The future of HTML5: Beyond the Browser Messaging Apps Are the New Platforms
  • Copyright VisionMobile 20145 APPS: the tip of the iceberg
  • Copyright VisionMobile 2014 6 1,000,000 apps ARE just the tip of the iceberg fundamental business model shifts are taking shape
  • Copyright VisionMobile 2014 There is a Fundamental shift in how value is created value is now in all aspects of user needs Source: Eurostat household spending for 2011, VisionMobile mobile telephony 2000s mobile creates value for communication needs 3% of user spending mobile computing 2010s mobile creates value for all needs and near 100% of user spending Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels 23% Transport 13% Food and non- alcoholic beverages 12% Miscellaneous goods and services 11% Recreation and culture 9% Restaurants and hotels 8% Furnishings, household equipment maintenance 6% Clothing and footwear 6% Alcoholic beverages, tobacco and narcotics 3% Health 3% Communications 3% Education 3% 3% Communications 7 household spending EU27 household spending EU27
  • Copyright VisionMobile 2014 Fundamental shift in how value is delivered and captured challenges the fundamentals of the traditional telecom-centric business model but, apps are just the tip of the iceberg Source: VisionMobile mobile telephony telcos are the gatekeepers and those who profit from mobile mobile computing ecosystems are the gatekeepers and those who profit from mobile Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels 23% Transport 13% Food and non- alcoholic beverages 12% Miscellaneo us goods and services 11% Recreation and culture 9% Restaurants and hotels 8% Furnishings , household equipment maintenanc e 6% Clothing and footwear 6% Alcoholic beverages, tobacco and narcotics 3% Health 3% Communica tions 3% Education 3% 3% Communications 8
  • Copyright VisionMobile 2014 Fundamental shift in how competition is defined challenges the assumptions of competitive positioning Source: VisionMobile competition between products defined by product features what product the customer will buy? (inside-out thinking) 9 competition between industries defined by product benefits what customer is trying to get done? (outside-in thinking) vs. vs. buying a newspaper killing 10 minutes of time buying phone service keep in touch with friends vs. vs.
  • Copyright VisionMobile 2014 10 Fundamental value chain overlaps players across industries compete for control across the value chain, but not for profits Content Distribution Connectivity Screen User Apps Services App Stores / Portals Billing Telephony Network access Software platform Devices Discovery / retailing Customer insights devices Ads software licensing e-commerce Ads denotes vendor s core business networks
  • Copyright VisionMobile 2014 11 Apps are just the tip of the iceberg Mobile is changing - How value is created, delivered, captured - how competition is defined - Value chain overlaps - cross-industry subsidies
  • Copyright VisionMobile 2014 MOBILE ECOSYSTEMS: DONT COME LATE TO THE GAME
  • Copyright VisionMobile 2014 Its a green and blue APPS world For developers, iOS and Android dominate every developer market Source: Developer Economics Q1 2014 Platform priority by country, for app developers
  • Copyright VisionMobile 2014 iOS dominates developer revenues Median revenue per app, per month (n=2,425)* Source: Developer Economics Q1 2014
  • Copyright VisionMobile 2014 15 Below the iceberg.. The Apple and Google ecosystems Are 100+ billion dollar empires
  • Copyright VisionMobile 2014 The Apple GDP: The iOS ecosystem has grown to $163B Apple captures most of this revenue iOS platform devices App Store content platform device sales content revenue share accessories revenue share content licensing revenues direct revenues, user engagement premium mobile computing experience revenues from sales of premium devices accessory manufacturers accessories, revenue share access to market 16 how value is captured mobile app developers Source: VisionMobile analysis Figures for 2012 content owners (music, books, magazines, movies content apps and games App Store $129B iOS device revenue $22B app revenue, ads revenue and contract sales $6B content license revenue $7B accessory sales
  • Copyright VisionMobile 2014 The Android GDP: AN ecosystem valued at $149B Enormous defensive value for Googles core business, but little direct value capture Android platform technology services, free content governance app store eyeballs insights apps user engagement and direct revenues 17 how value is captured Handset OEMs handsets technology and services mass-market mobile computing experience eyeballs mobile app developers Play Store compatibility certification $117B handset sales $3B est. revenue from ads on Android devices $19B app revenue, ads revenue and contract sales Source: VisionMobile analysis Figures for 2012
  • Copyright VisionMobile 2014 18 How did Apple, Google built ecosystem empires? What can history teach us?
  • Copyright VisionMobile 2014 19 2000 2001 2002 appecosystemssoftwareplatforms Android iOS 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 = dead end Apple, Google emerged out of the ashes of 20+ dead platforms. Only the first-mover app ecosystems survived A la Mobile Access ALP Azingo Comneon Apoxi Danger OS e-SIM Intrinsyc OS IXI Mobile Mizi Prizm S40 Motorola L-J Nokia GEOS OpenMoko OpenWave MIDAS Palm 5/6 Sasken Aria SavaJe OS SKY-MAP TTPCom Ajar MeeGo Tizen Firefox OS Windows Phone Blackberry Maemo Bada Jolla first two platforms with an app store Ubuntu bubble size = apps available Only the first-mover, app ecosystems survived
  • Copyright VisionMobile 2014 iOS, Android built app ecosystems with superior economics app ecosystems have very different economics to platforms before them software platform communications platform app ecosystem* examples Linux participants handset makers users users and developers wins by sharing costs and risks of software development connecting large number of users connecting users with developers economics economies of scale same-side network effects same- and cross-side network effects with winner- takes-all dynamics growth potential linear quadratic exponential *also referred to as a computing platform
  • Copyright VisionMobile 2014 App ecosystems won by superior growth potential 21 scale (users or devices) valuetoeachuser App ecosystem value grows exponentially due to increased number of interconnections Software platform value grows linearly due to cost saving and decreasing price moreusers>
  • Copyright VisionMobile 2014 ecosystem economics resulted in a duopoly 22
  • Copyright VisionMobile 2014 23 ..Actually four duopolies network effects have created duopolies and huge barriers to entry for late comers Source: Developer Economics; VisionMobile estimates Figures for Q3 2013
  • Copyright VisionMobile 2014 24 Whats the secret Sauce? Can Apples and googles success be replicated?
  • Copyright VisionMobile 2014 Apple, Android deliver benefits to all sides exponential growth comes from cross-side network effects across all five sides mobile platforms app developers handset makers operators 25 brands advertisers reach eyeba