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Christopher Michals

11-19-13

Article Brief # 9Section 2

Six Rules for Effective Forecasting

The article is from the Harvard Business evie!" specificall sent to me from $r%

Bro&a!% The article is on the topic of forecastin'" specificall 'ivin' tips on ho! to forecast

effectivel( as the title of article implies% )rom readin' throu'h the article from author *aul

Saffo" he 'ives some useful insi'hts into the concept of forecastin'%

The article as the title implies" delivers the reader si+ different ideas,rules aout ho! to

forecast and 'ives e+amples and e+planations to .ustif them% )or instance" the first rule of

advice is to define a cone of uncertaint" or to loo& at different possiilities to a situation and not

emphasi/e or invest too much thou'ht into a sin'le conception ut have a !ide 0cone of

possiilities for a situation% f trin' to predict a situation" cast a !ide net to catch man

possiilities versus a narro! one that onl catches a fe!" so do not underestimate the improale

ut do not e too hun' up on it either% This is ecause sometimes the supposed 0!ild card or

outlier" !hile hard to uantif" !ill have the disproportionatel lar'e impact if it does occur% n

other !ords" do not dismiss the unli&el% The second rule the author mentions !as to find an S

curve" or to &no! that chan'e does not often follo! a linear or strai'ht-line pattern% That chan'e

'enerall starts slo! and incremental" ut then all of a sudden e+plodes or increases dramaticall"

and then eventuall tapers off% n other !ords" esides usin' mathematic .ar'on" .ust ecause

somethin' is not uite popular no! or does not appear to e popular" ma !ithout !arnin' all of

a sudden ecome popular under the ri'ht circumstances% The author mentions the e+ample of the

internet to illustrate his point" !hich it had een in e+istence lon' efore it reached mainstream

popularit and reached a pea& until it started levelin' off% The third rule the author su''ests is to

emrace thin's that do not fit% 4hich reall means do not underestimate the oscure or thin's

that appear unconventional at first 'lance ecause the ver !ell could e popular or soon

ecome the ne! convention une+pectedl( mostl" do not 'et hun' up on our preconceived

notions or a slave to our o!n initial conclusions aout somethin'% n addition" he emphasi/ed to

mostl do not 'et mentall la/ and .ust follo! !hat the mainstream of thou'ht aout !hat

somethin' !ill e in the future" such as ho! computers in the past !ere predicted or forecasted

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to e future tools to 'et !or& done versus to e sources of recreation% The fourth rule !as to hold

stron' opinions !ea&l" or to e fle+ile in thou'ht aout one5s ideas% The !a interpreted this"

!as to have an open mind aout our vie!points versus pi'eonholin' ourself into suscriin'

to onl one line of thou'ht% n other !ords" a trul !ise person &no!s that he &no!s nothin' ut

onl !hat he thin&s he &no!s% Therefore" havin' mental fle+iilit and understandin' that the

realit ou perceive is su.ective and our particular perceptions could e !ron' so do not e

foolish enou'h to thin& ou are al!as 'oin' to e ri'ht( sort of li&e learnin' to detach ourself

from our emotions and reall loo&in' at !hat is happenin' !ithout refle+ive .ud'ment% The

fifth rule is to loo& ac& t!ice as far as ou loo& for!ard" or as the line" plan to

unapolo'eticall" steal from this author" !hich he proal too& from someone else" is 0histor

doesn5t repeat itself" ut sometimes it rhmes% n other !ords" it means to loo& ac& at the past

ecause it can lead to some clues aout !hat mi'ht happen in the future" the !a interpret this"

personall" is that human nature has not chan'ed all that much deep do!n since the times of old%

A phrase similar to the aforementioned one that stic&s !ith me is 0that more thin's chan'e" the

more the sta the same% n other !ords" the human !orld !ill al!as e human" for e+ample"

emotion al!as trumps lo'ic" in the end% The si+th and final rule is no !hen to not forecast%

4hich thin& is a 'ood rule to follo! and is a sho! of humilit on the author5s part% 6o matter

!hat fanc mathematic principles someone mi'ht develop" for e+ample" mi'ht e persuasive or

seductive at first 'lance" it is no sure si'n that is !ill !or&( it could e one tedious form of

mental masturation or !aste of time% Much of the !orld is unpredictale as the author stresses

that forecastin' is not predictin' the future" therefore" it is 'ood to &eep in perspective that ou

could e !ron' and not e over/ealous !ith our forecastin' ecause the human environment

can e a lot li&e the !eather" unpredictale%

The author from his perspective !ants to sho! that he has researched histor and sho!

that he competent in this specialt% f had to 'uess" ima'ine he is a consultant of some &ind" so

!ritin' this ma lead him to have some ne! clientele% Alternativel" at the ver least receivin'some presti'e from 'ettin' an article pulished in the Harvard Business evie!% 7ither !a"

ima'ine that his 'oal is accomplished%

The author !rote this article to tr to enli'hten his audience to sho! people some

possil overloo&ed ideas !hen it comes to forecastin' and !hat mista&es potentiall could

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occur% The author apparentl !ants to loo& intelli'ent and ho! that he &no!s !hat he is tal&in'

aout to a popular usiness pulication such as the Harvard Business evie!% n other !ords" if

the author has a oo& for e+ample" it is an indirect !a to find potential readers,uers of his

product( in other !ords" he is advertisin' himself%

This pertains to Mar&etin' mana'ement ecause of forecastin' is an important element to

success% n other !ords" ein' ale to ta&e the advice of the author and ecome a etter

forecaster for situations that ma lead to a etter outcome than if one did not have the &no!led'e

'iven in the article% n other !ords" ein' a etter forecaster !ill lead to 'ainin' stron'er

intelli'ence or information aout !hat the future holds and that should" !ithout e+planation" e

valuale% A metaphor" if one had the s&ills to forecast so !ell that it is similar that ou had a real

versus ima'inar divination tool( one could potentiall use to accumulate 'reat !ealth or simpl

e ahead of the competition% n other !ords" ein' 'ood at forecastin' can lead one to reap the

re!ards of havin' e+traordinar insi'hts" ho!ever it is a tool and could e useless !ithout

application of it%

The most relevant class that helped me understand the content of the article !ould have

to 'o to Mar&etin' Mana'ement" not to e scophantic% The honest truth is do not entirel

recall !hich other classes have ta&en that helped me understand the article" ut nonetheless"

understood the content% thin& that after seven and a half ears of under'raduate courses" one

can lose trac& of a specific class that helped me understand the content% Therefore" the real most

accurate ans!er !ould e an amal'amation of all the courses have ta&en in m under'raduate

career%