MGT581 The Nature of Strategic Foresight

The Nature of Strategic Foresight:An Introduction

David A. Jarvis

Salve Regina University, MGT581 Business Foresight & Futuring, June 4-7, 2012

The Nature of Strategic Foresight – Jarvis – MGT581 Business Foresight & Futuring, June 4-7, 2012

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7 Billion


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Hans Rosling


“It is a poor sort of memory that only works backwards…”

Scientists have studied how people re-experience past events and pre-experience possible future events using fMRI

The brain's memory circuits are not just for reflecting on the past, but are also for imagining, anticipating, and preparing for the future

The brain is a proactive system that integrates past experience to help navigate the future

SOURCE: HBR, http://blogs.hbr.org/your-health-at-work/2010/09/how-your-brain-connects-the-fu.html 4


Seven lessons of the great explorers

1. Prepare for what you will face in the future

2. Anticipate future needs

3. Use poor information when necessary

4. Expect the unexpected

5. Think long-term as well as short-term

6. Dream productively

7. Learn from your predecessors

SOURCE: Edward Cornish, Futuring: The Exploration of the Future 5


What is this stuff called anyway?

futuring

foresight

future(s) studies

futurology

futuristics futuribles

prospective

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Why is it important to study the future?

to inform to prepare

to control to shape

to improveto create

to avoid to guide

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“The purposes of futures studies are to discover or invent, examine and

evaluate, and propose possible, probable and preferable futures.”

- Wendell Bell, Foundations of Futures Studies, Vol. 1

“The purposes of futures studies are to discover or invent, examine and

evaluate, and propose possible, probable and preferable futures.”

- Wendell Bell, Foundations of Futures Studies, Vol. 1

The purposes of futures studies

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Key assumptions about futures studies

SOURCE: Wendell Bell, Foundations of Futures Studies, Vol. 1, 1996

The universe Our world People

Time is continuous, linear, unidirectional and

irreversible

The most useful knowledge is “knowledge

of the future”

Futures thinking is essential for human action

The future is not totally predetermined

The future cannot be observed – there are no

facts about the future

Future outcomes can be influenced by individual

and collection action

Not everything that will exist has existed or does

exist

Interdependence requires a holistic perspective and

approach

Some futures are better than others – we have a

choice

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The goal of studying the future is to prevent surprise and better prepare for change

The future is NOT:

singular

predictable

linear

static

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Understanding how change works in order to reduce uncertainty1

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Futures studies is different than traditional forecasting techniques

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Two approaches to forecasting

SOURCE: Dr. Peter Bishop, Futures Studies, University of Houston

Traditional Futures / Foresight

Short-term horizon (immediate) Long-term horizon

Single domain (specialization) Many domains

Few factors (reductionism) Many factors

Focus on continuity (models) Focus on discontinuity

Hide uncertainty (assumptions) Reveal uncertainty

Single forecast (predictions) Alternative forecasts

Quantitative techniques (math) Qualitative techniques

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Approaches topics and problems with a more comprehensive perspective3

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Futurists are systems thinkers, looking at disparate trends and emerging issues and how they are interrelated

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Futures studies is an art and a science5

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Three common types of futures thinking

Future Description Beliefs Metaphor

Probable (the predictable)

Predictability, according to natural law, is the default assumption for physical

and social sciences

Order, causality,

connectedness, determinism,

flow

A river

Plausible (the contingent)

History and natural phenomenon as the result of surprising contingencies and inherent uncertainty

Chance, uncertainty, contingency

A dice game

Preferable (the chosen)

Responsibility for the future on individuals’

intentions and actions

Free will, dominance of human ability

A blueprint

SOURCE: Dr. Peter Bishop, University of Houston 17


Future Forces Thinking Techniques

Probable (baseline)

Constants

Trends

Definite

Scientific

Historical analogy

Extrapolation

Plausible (alternative)

Discontinuities

Surprises

Speculative

Imaginative

Scenarios

Simulation

Preferable (visionary)

Choices

Images

Visionary

Empowered

Visioning

Planning

SOURCE: Dr. Peter Bishop, University of Houston

Three common types of futures thinking (cont.)

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A “futurist” needs to have a number of different characteristics & qualities

Analytic

Curious

Creative

Visionary

Comfortable with ambiguity

Risk-taker

Enthusiastic

Business-minded

Opportunity focused

Persuasive

Can concurrently hold multiple viewpoints

Multi-disciplinary

Need to be a “deep generalist”Need to be a “deep generalist”19


Barriers to understanding the future

SOURCE: Dr. Peter Bishop, University of Houston

Lack of information What we don’t know

Incorrect theories What we think we know

Unexamined assumptions What we believe we know

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Biggest mistake – The future will be just like today, only more so

Biggest mistake – The future will be just like today, only more so


Barriers to understanding the future – specific theories

21SOURCE: “The Wrong Way to Plan for the Future”, io9, http://io9.com/5912199/the-wrong-way-to-plan-for-the-future

The planning fallacy We tend to overestimate how much we'll be able

to get done in a particular time period

Whatever is willed will be

We overstate how much our willpower will help us achieve our goals

Construal Level Theory

We think less concretely the further we think into the future


“Strategic Foresight is the ability to create and maintain a high-quality, coherent and

functional forward view, and to use the insights arising in useful organisational ways.

For example to detect adverse conditions, guide policy, shape strategy, and to explore

new markets, products and services. It represents a fusion of futures methods with

those of strategic management.” - Richard A. Slaughter

“Strategic Foresight is the ability to create and maintain a high-quality, coherent and

functional forward view, and to use the insights arising in useful organisational ways.

For example to detect adverse conditions, guide policy, shape strategy, and to explore

new markets, products and services. It represents a fusion of futures methods with

those of strategic management.” - Richard A. Slaughter

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Strategic foresight requires a different approach, tools, and analytical skills

It is more about finding land… and less about cartography

It is more about finding land… and less about cartography

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What makes strategic foresight different?

Approach Focus

Generally, more provocative

Analyzes a longer time horizon

Less quantitative than other types of market

analyses

Focuses on new or immature markets

Trends and emerging issues are most important

Concentrates on external market forces

Employs non-traditional business skills and

methodsAlways global in nature

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Typical strategic foresight framework for businesses

Customer Foresight

Market Foresight

Competitive Foresight

Technology Foresight

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A structure for strategic foresight

SOURCE: Bob Johansen, “Get There Early: Sensing the Future to Compete in the Present”, Institute for the Future, 2007

Volatility Vision Uncertainty Understanding Complexity Clarity Ambiguity Agility

FORESIGHT

INSIGHT ACTION

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Benefits of strategic foresight to an organization

Vision Understanding

A sense of direction in the face of volatility

Provides context for external events

Having an understanding of the future increases trust, strengthens relationships

Trust is essential in times of uncertainty

Clarity Agility

Helps to frame and facilitate discussions around new ideas and markets

Reduces the complexity for a client

Increase organizational flexibility and responsiveness – more natural evolution

Stay ahead of potential surprises and the competition

SOURCE: Bob Johansen, “Get There Early: Sensing the Future to Compete in the Present”, Institute for the Future, 2007

“If you don’t study the future, you cannot influence it.”- ADM James Hogg (Ret.)

“If you don’t study the future, you cannot influence it.”- ADM James Hogg (Ret.)

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There are many examples of a failure of foresight

mortgage-backed assets

analog to digital photography

global competition, innovation

online video

Deepwater oil leak

electronic books

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VIDEO(The Tablet Newspaper – 13:22)

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MGT581 The Nature of Strategic Foresight

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Transcript of MGT581 The Nature of Strategic Foresight