The Nature of Strategic Foresight:An Introduction
David A. Jarvis
Salve Regina University, MGT581 Business Foresight & Futuring, June 4-7, 2012
The Nature of Strategic Foresight – Jarvis – MGT581 Business Foresight & Futuring, June 4-7, 2012
2
7 Billion
The Nature of Strategic Foresight – Jarvis – MGT581 Business Foresight & Futuring, June 4-7, 2012
3
Hans Rosling
The Nature of Strategic Foresight – Jarvis – MGT581 Business Foresight & Futuring, June 4-7, 2012
“It is a poor sort of memory that only works backwards…”
Scientists have studied how people re-experience past events and pre-experience possible future events using fMRI
The brain's memory circuits are not just for reflecting on the past, but are also for imagining, anticipating, and preparing for the future
The brain is a proactive system that integrates past experience to help navigate the future
SOURCE: HBR, http://blogs.hbr.org/your-health-at-work/2010/09/how-your-brain-connects-the-fu.html 4
The Nature of Strategic Foresight – Jarvis – MGT581 Business Foresight & Futuring, June 4-7, 2012
Seven lessons of the great explorers
1. Prepare for what you will face in the future
2. Anticipate future needs
3. Use poor information when necessary
4. Expect the unexpected
5. Think long-term as well as short-term
6. Dream productively
7. Learn from your predecessors
SOURCE: Edward Cornish, Futuring: The Exploration of the Future 5
The Nature of Strategic Foresight – Jarvis – MGT581 Business Foresight & Futuring, June 4-7, 2012
What is this stuff called anyway?
futuring
foresight
future(s) studies
futurology
futuristics futuribles
prospective
?6
The Nature of Strategic Foresight – Jarvis – MGT581 Business Foresight & Futuring, June 4-7, 2012
Why is it important to study the future?
to inform to prepare
to control to shape
to improveto create
to avoid to guide
7
The Nature of Strategic Foresight – Jarvis – MGT581 Business Foresight & Futuring, June 4-7, 2012
“The purposes of futures studies are to discover or invent, examine and
evaluate, and propose possible, probable and preferable futures.”
- Wendell Bell, Foundations of Futures Studies, Vol. 1
“The purposes of futures studies are to discover or invent, examine and
evaluate, and propose possible, probable and preferable futures.”
- Wendell Bell, Foundations of Futures Studies, Vol. 1
The purposes of futures studies
8
The Nature of Strategic Foresight – Jarvis – MGT581 Business Foresight & Futuring, June 4-7, 2012
Key assumptions about futures studies
SOURCE: Wendell Bell, Foundations of Futures Studies, Vol. 1, 1996
The universe Our world People
Time is continuous, linear, unidirectional and
irreversible
The most useful knowledge is “knowledge
of the future”
Futures thinking is essential for human action
The future is not totally predetermined
The future cannot be observed – there are no
facts about the future
Future outcomes can be influenced by individual
and collection action
Not everything that will exist has existed or does
exist
Interdependence requires a holistic perspective and
approach
Some futures are better than others – we have a
choice
9
The Nature of Strategic Foresight – Jarvis – MGT581 Business Foresight & Futuring, June 4-7, 2012
The goal of studying the future is to prevent surprise and better prepare for change
The future is NOT:
singular
predictable
linear
static
10
The Nature of Strategic Foresight – Jarvis – MGT581 Business Foresight & Futuring, June 4-7, 2012
Understanding how change works in order to reduce uncertainty1
11
The Nature of Strategic Foresight – Jarvis – MGT581 Business Foresight & Futuring, June 4-7, 2012
Futures studies is different than traditional forecasting techniques
2
12
The Nature of Strategic Foresight – Jarvis – MGT581 Business Foresight & Futuring, June 4-7, 2012
Two approaches to forecasting
SOURCE: Dr. Peter Bishop, Futures Studies, University of Houston
Traditional Futures / Foresight
Short-term horizon (immediate) Long-term horizon
Single domain (specialization) Many domains
Few factors (reductionism) Many factors
Focus on continuity (models) Focus on discontinuity
Hide uncertainty (assumptions) Reveal uncertainty
Single forecast (predictions) Alternative forecasts
Quantitative techniques (math) Qualitative techniques
13
The Nature of Strategic Foresight – Jarvis – MGT581 Business Foresight & Futuring, June 4-7, 2012
Approaches topics and problems with a more comprehensive perspective3
14
The Nature of Strategic Foresight – Jarvis – MGT581 Business Foresight & Futuring, June 4-7, 2012
Futurists are systems thinkers, looking at disparate trends and emerging issues and how they are interrelated
4
15
The Nature of Strategic Foresight – Jarvis – MGT581 Business Foresight & Futuring, June 4-7, 2012
Futures studies is an art and a science5
16
The Nature of Strategic Foresight – Jarvis – MGT581 Business Foresight & Futuring, June 4-7, 2012
Three common types of futures thinking
Future Description Beliefs Metaphor
Probable (the predictable)
Predictability, according to natural law, is the default assumption for physical
and social sciences
Order, causality,
connectedness, determinism,
flow
A river
Plausible (the contingent)
History and natural phenomenon as the result of surprising contingencies and inherent uncertainty
Chance, uncertainty, contingency
A dice game
Preferable (the chosen)
Responsibility for the future on individuals’
intentions and actions
Free will, dominance of human ability
A blueprint
SOURCE: Dr. Peter Bishop, University of Houston 17
The Nature of Strategic Foresight – Jarvis – MGT581 Business Foresight & Futuring, June 4-7, 2012
Future Forces Thinking Techniques
Probable (baseline)
Constants
Trends
Definite
Scientific
Historical analogy
Extrapolation
Plausible (alternative)
Discontinuities
Surprises
Speculative
Imaginative
Scenarios
Simulation
Preferable (visionary)
Choices
Images
Visionary
Empowered
Visioning
Planning
SOURCE: Dr. Peter Bishop, University of Houston
Three common types of futures thinking (cont.)
18
The Nature of Strategic Foresight – Jarvis – MGT581 Business Foresight & Futuring, June 4-7, 2012
A “futurist” needs to have a number of different characteristics & qualities
Analytic
Curious
Creative
Visionary
Comfortable with ambiguity
Risk-taker
Enthusiastic
Business-minded
Opportunity focused
Persuasive
Can concurrently hold multiple viewpoints
Multi-disciplinary
Need to be a “deep generalist”Need to be a “deep generalist”19
The Nature of Strategic Foresight – Jarvis – MGT581 Business Foresight & Futuring, June 4-7, 2012
Barriers to understanding the future
SOURCE: Dr. Peter Bishop, University of Houston
Lack of information What we don’t know
Incorrect theories What we think we know
Unexamined assumptions What we believe we know
20
Biggest mistake – The future will be just like today, only more so
Biggest mistake – The future will be just like today, only more so
The Nature of Strategic Foresight – Jarvis – MGT581 Business Foresight & Futuring, June 4-7, 2012
Barriers to understanding the future – specific theories
21SOURCE: “The Wrong Way to Plan for the Future”, io9, http://io9.com/5912199/the-wrong-way-to-plan-for-the-future
The planning fallacy We tend to overestimate how much we'll be able
to get done in a particular time period
Whatever is willed will be
We overstate how much our willpower will help us achieve our goals
Construal Level Theory
We think less concretely the further we think into the future
The Nature of Strategic Foresight – Jarvis – MGT581 Business Foresight & Futuring, June 4-7, 2012
“Strategic Foresight is the ability to create and maintain a high-quality, coherent and
functional forward view, and to use the insights arising in useful organisational ways.
For example to detect adverse conditions, guide policy, shape strategy, and to explore
new markets, products and services. It represents a fusion of futures methods with
those of strategic management.” - Richard A. Slaughter
“Strategic Foresight is the ability to create and maintain a high-quality, coherent and
functional forward view, and to use the insights arising in useful organisational ways.
For example to detect adverse conditions, guide policy, shape strategy, and to explore
new markets, products and services. It represents a fusion of futures methods with
those of strategic management.” - Richard A. Slaughter
22
The Nature of Strategic Foresight – Jarvis – MGT581 Business Foresight & Futuring, June 4-7, 2012
Strategic foresight requires a different approach, tools, and analytical skills
It is more about finding land… and less about cartography
It is more about finding land… and less about cartography
23
The Nature of Strategic Foresight – Jarvis – MGT581 Business Foresight & Futuring, June 4-7, 2012
What makes strategic foresight different?
Approach Focus
Generally, more provocative
Analyzes a longer time horizon
Less quantitative than other types of market
analyses
Focuses on new or immature markets
Trends and emerging issues are most important
Concentrates on external market forces
Employs non-traditional business skills and
methodsAlways global in nature
24
The Nature of Strategic Foresight – Jarvis – MGT581 Business Foresight & Futuring, June 4-7, 2012
Typical strategic foresight framework for businesses
Customer Foresight
Market Foresight
Competitive Foresight
Technology Foresight
25
The Nature of Strategic Foresight – Jarvis – MGT581 Business Foresight & Futuring, June 4-7, 2012
A structure for strategic foresight
SOURCE: Bob Johansen, “Get There Early: Sensing the Future to Compete in the Present”, Institute for the Future, 2007
Volatility Vision Uncertainty Understanding Complexity Clarity Ambiguity Agility
FORESIGHT
INSIGHT ACTION
26
The Nature of Strategic Foresight – Jarvis – MGT581 Business Foresight & Futuring, June 4-7, 2012
Benefits of strategic foresight to an organization
Vision Understanding
A sense of direction in the face of volatility
Provides context for external events
Having an understanding of the future increases trust, strengthens relationships
Trust is essential in times of uncertainty
Clarity Agility
Helps to frame and facilitate discussions around new ideas and markets
Reduces the complexity for a client
Increase organizational flexibility and responsiveness – more natural evolution
Stay ahead of potential surprises and the competition
SOURCE: Bob Johansen, “Get There Early: Sensing the Future to Compete in the Present”, Institute for the Future, 2007
“If you don’t study the future, you cannot influence it.”- ADM James Hogg (Ret.)
“If you don’t study the future, you cannot influence it.”- ADM James Hogg (Ret.)
27
The Nature of Strategic Foresight – Jarvis – MGT581 Business Foresight & Futuring, June 4-7, 2012
There are many examples of a failure of foresight
mortgage-backed assets
analog to digital photography
global competition, innovation
online video
Deepwater oil leak
electronic books
28
The Nature of Strategic Foresight – Jarvis – MGT581 Business Foresight & Futuring, June 4-7, 2012
VIDEO(The Tablet Newspaper – 13:22)
29
Top Related