Metro 2010-2045 Growth Distribution Process Project Update to MTAC January 4, 2012.

Metro 2010-2045 Growth Distribution Process

Project Update to MTACJanuary 4, 2012

2010-45 Regional TAZ Forecast Allocation

2

Process Outline and Schedule – page1

Timing Activity Description

Oct. 2010 Planning directors meeting to kick-off TAZ Forecast

Nov. 2010 - Feb. 2011

Update the crosswalk table between local zoning districts and MetroScope zone class (incorporate local review)

Jan. – July 2011 Develop MetroScope Supply Modules (TAZ subcommittee)(Capacity estimates for residential and employment)

June 2011 Release MetroScope Beta 2010-35 TAZ Forecast (agile version)(limited release of interim forecast product for EMCP and SW Corridor projects)

July 2011 Planning directors meeting to begin review of Supply Modules

Aug. – Sep. 2011 Finalize MetroScope Supply Modules(incorporates final recommendations of supply assumptions of Portland and suburban areas)

Oct. 2011 MetroScope Gamma TAZ Forecast starts now (tandem version)(land-use and transportation modeling are fully engaged in TAZ forecast)

Nov. 2011 Limited Release of Gamma 1.0 TAZ Forecast (agile)(interim forecast presented to Portland planning for comp plan review task)

3

Process Outline and Schedule – page2

Dec. 2011-Mar. 2012 1st preview of MetroScope Gamma Forecast (local governments can begin reviewing preliminary forecast data)

Apr. 2012 MetroScope Gamma TAZ Forecast restarts (tandem)

June-July 2012 Final Review of MetroScope Gamma Forecast

Aug 2012 Metro Council hearing and adoption of Official TAZ Forecast

Next Steps?

Mid-2012 Commit work program to research supply and demand unresolved supply and demand issues identified during this TAZ forecast


4

METROSCOPE

MetroScope – equilibrium supply and demand real estate forecast modelIntegrated land use & transportation model to forecast TAZ-level employment and households.

Key forecast & policy assumptions: • Zoning data• Capacity (supply) information – residential and employment• Regional forecast data (demand)


5

MetroScope Model SchematicJob Demand

ForecastTravel Times/Access

(Travel Demand Model)

MetroScope Residential Model

HIA Demand Forecast

Land Supply / Capacity DataVacant Land, Refill Supply, UR etc.

MetroScope Non-Residential Model

HIA location choices

Job location choices

HIA Location Choices

Job Location Choices

Dem

and

Supp

ly


Out

put

6

METROSCOPE: DEMAND DATA(MetroScope models the real estate demand factors)


Job Demand Forecast

Travel Times/Access(Travel Demand Model)


HIA Demand Forecast

Land Supply / Capacity Data



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• Pt+1 = Pt + bt – dt + mt (population eq.)

Demand Data: Population Forecast (PMSA)

606162636465666768697071727374757677787980818283848586878889909192939495969798990001020304050607080910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031323334353637383940

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

20.0

22.0

Crude Birth Rate(Live Births per 1,000 popula-

tion)

Births per 1,000 population

History Forecast

606162636465666768697071727374757677787980818283848586878889909192939495969798990001020304050607080910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031323334353637383940

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

11.0

12.0

Crude Death Rate(Deaths per 1,000 population)

Deaths per 1,000 popu-lation

History Forecast

606162636465666768697071727374757677787980818283848586878889909192939495969798990001020304050607080910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031323334353637383940

-20,000

-10,000

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

Net Migration, total

Net Mig.Hist. Avg.+2 std. dev.

History Forecast


(x-axis denominated in years)

8

PMSA: Range Forecast

Range ~ 2 std. dev.

2010 Population:2,226,009 (Census)

2035 Population:3,210,000 (yellow line)

Demand Data: Population Forecast

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

2055

2060

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Nonfarm Wage & Salary Employment Forecast(Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA PMSA)

90-95 Perc.

10-90 Perc.

5-10 Perc.

0-5 Perc.

Forecast

Actual

History

Forecast Range


9


Metro Council opts in UGB decision:

Lower middle-third forecast range point value is assumed for 2010-45 TAZ Forecast (Gamma 2.0)

Lower middle-third forecast range point value

Standard Deviation


11

Convert household count to HIA distributions


Iterative techniques use2000 Census PUMS data to estimate households by :

Household size (7) Income bracket (16) Age of household head (7)


12

PMSA: Range Forecast

Range ~ 2 std. dev.

2010 Population:2,226,009 (Census)

2035 Population:3,210,000 (yellow line)

Demand Data: Employment Forecast

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

2055

2060

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Nonfarm Wage & Salary Employment Forecast(Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA PMSA)

90-95 Perc.

10-90 Perc.

5-10 Perc.

0-5 Perc.

Forecast

Actual

History

Forecast Range


14

Demand Data: Employment Forecast

Industry DescriptionNAICS definitions

url:MetroScope 15 Categories (SIC)

Travel Demand Variable

farm and forestry 11, 21 1 Afm

construction 23 2 Con

manufacturing 31, 32, 33 part of 3, 4, 5 Mfgtransport, warehousing, utilities 22, 48, 49 6, part of 7 Tpu

wholesale trade 42 8 Wt

retail trade 44, 45, 72 9 Retfinance, insurance, real estate 52, 53, 55 10 Ficonsumer, health, business services 51, 54, 56, 61, 62, 71, 81

11, 12, 13, part of 3, part of 7 Ser

government, K-12 edu Gov. ownership 14, 15 Gov2010-45 Regional TAZ Forecast Allocation

15

METROSCOPE: SUPPLY DATA(MetroScope models the real estate supply-side capacity components)


Job Demand Forecast



HIA Demand Forecast





17

Supply Data: MetroScope Capacity Concepts

18

Supply Data: Metro UGB Residential

2010-45 Regional TAZ Forecast Allocation2010-45 Regional TAZ Forecast Allocation

19

Supply Data: Metro UGB Non-Res.


20

Supply Data: Subsidized Redevelopment


21

Supply Data: Metro Urban Reserves


22

Supply Data: Ex-UGB Capacity


23

Supply Data: Clark County


Clark County Residential DU Capacity Estimates:

SF = 67,000MF=45,700


Supply Data: Residential Capacity (PMSA)

SF Vacant5%

SF Infill6%

MF Va-cant5%

MF Re-dev25%

Ur-ban Re-serves

35%

Clark

County13%

Rural10%

Dwelling Unit Capacity by Sourcenet units

(rounded)Total Capacity: 802,400 100%

(for greater-Portland metropolitan region)

Metro UGB: 363,300 45%Vacant in UGB: 91,600 11%Redev in UGB: 271,700 34%

Prospective Capacity inUrban Reserves (Metro): 230,700 29%

Single Family (est.) 75,800 9%Multi-family (est.) 154,900 19%(MFR includes MUR capacity)

Clark County: 117,000 15%Single Family 71,300 9%Multi-family 45,700 6%

Rural Tri-counties (part) 35,000 4%

Columbia, Marion, Yamhill (parts): 56,400 7%


Supply Data: Capacity by Type (UGB) Residential Capacity Estimates

Chart: Inside Metro UGB capacity, excludes residential capacity from other sources (i.e., excludes urban reserves, Clark county, rural and ex-urban county capacity)

Includes vacant and all estimated redevelopment capacity inside UGB

SFR = single family capacity (1-unit structures)

MFR = combines residential capacity from MFR and MUR zone classes URA = urban renewal area (i.e., subsidized redevelopment)

Methodology: Metro vacant land, BLI methods, redevelopment filters, then reviewed by local governments.


Supply Data: Single Family Capacity (UGB)

BeavertonCorneliusDamascus

DurhamFairview

Forest GroveGladstoneGresham

Happy ValleyHillsboro

Johnson CityKing City

Lake OswegoMaywood Park

MilwaukieOregon City

PortlandRivergroveSherwood

TigardTroutdale

TualatinWest Linn

WilsonvilleWood Village

Clackamas UIAMultnomah UIAWashington UIA

10,000 20,000 30,000

1,632 70

10,892 40 318

2,063 247

5,692 4,601

1,771

320 1,400

6 1,082

2,750 17,853

72 351

3,102 624

429 1,374 1,383

37

11,035 3,386

25,816

Single Family Residential Capacity(Metro UGB)

SFR


Supply Data: Multi-family Capacity (UGB)

BeavertonCorneliusDamascus

DurhamFairview

Forest GroveGladstoneGresham

Happy ValleyHillsboro

Johnson CityKing City

Lake OswegoMaywood Park

MilwaukieOregon City

PortlandRivergroveSherwood

TigardTroutdale

TualatinWest Linn

WilsonvilleWood Village

Clackamas UIAMultnomah UIAWashington UIA

25,000 50,000 75,000 100,000 125,000 150,000

3,958 140

9,041 21 366

2,518 346

10,984 4,498

9,992

121 783

456 2,417

133,938

597 3,791

500 184 230 1,886

232

3,235 3,423

11,240

Multi-Family Residential Capacity(Metro UGB)

MFR

30

METROSCOPE TRAVEL DEMAND DATA

Travel time skims linked to residential zones are a factor in determining residential location choice


Job Demand Forecast



HIA Demand Forecast




32

Travel Demand Data: Travel Times

Travel Time from Portland CBD

Modeled 2010 2-hour PM Peak

An example of typical travel time O-D pairings between downtown Portland and elsewhere in the region


33

Travel Demand Data: Travel Times

Travel Time from Wilsonville

Modeled 2010 2-hour PM Peak



Travel Demand Data: Travel Networks

Networks in TAZ GAMMA Forecast

2010 existing

2017 network

2035 RTP Federal (Constrained)

2035 RTP State (Strategic)

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METROSCOPE LAND USE TAZ ALLOCATION FORECAST

An equilibrium solution (balancing supply and demand for housing) is derived from the regulated buildable land inventory (BLI) and Metro “lower middle-third” regional population & employment forecast.


Job Demand Forecast



HIA Demand Forecast




36

Recap and Next Steps

• Progress to date - accomplishments• Concerns (next slide)• Research agenda to address concerns


37

Key Concerns - Forecast Inputs and Assumptions:• Single family housing supply• Equity and price effects (economic dislocations)• Redevelopment (economic thresholds)• Redevelopment of relatively new development• Mixed use residential (horizontal districts)• Mixed use residential density assumptions (MUR 9-10)

• Market differentiation by household type, tenure and location


Gamma 1.0 TAZ Forecast: Preliminary Forecast

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Research Agenda

• Proposed improvements to the forecast distribution process:*– Residential choice study enhanced with market

segmentation– Redevelopment supply assumption refinement– Review actual development densities in high

density multifamily and mixed use residential zone classes

*depending on funding availability


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EXAMPLES ILLUSTRATING KEY CONCERNS – SINGLE FAMILY, FUTURE PRICING TRENDS AND EQUITY


Beta TAZ Forecast: Preliminary Household Forecast – SFR/MFR splits

pre-1995 1995-2010

2010-15 2015-20 2020-25 2025-30 2030-35 2035-40 2040-45

%SFR 0.7000000000000

01

0.6000000000000

01

0.6700000000000

03

0.6433861901206

25

0.5539548644465

29

0.5246725350489

59

0.4127189131661

03

0.2693521133683

71

0.2873047341902

78

%MFR

0.3 0.4 0.3300000000000

01

0.3566138098793

76

0.4460451355534

72

0.4753274649510

44

0.5872810868338

97

0.7306478866316

33

0.7126952658097

24

13%

38%

63%

88%

Single Family - Multi-family Development Shares

Single Family

Multi-family

41

• SF inventories are expected to dwindle faster than replenishment rates

• Causing a surplus in SF residential demand

• Resulting in further increases in SF home prices over the forecast


Beta TAZ Forecast: Preliminary Household Forecast – SFR Price Projection

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 20450

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

Single Family Real Estate (Price Index 2010 = 1.0)

Forecast (MS G1.0)

Case-Shiller

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Beta TAZ Forecast: Preliminary Household Forecast (SF)


2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

(50,000)

50,000

150,000

250,000

350,000

Single Family Potential and Projected Demand Trendsand Regional SF Capacity

Rural CountiesClarkex-Urban Ruralex-Urban CitiesUrban ReservesNew UrbanUrban RenewalUGB (vac + ref)SF Growth (2010-45)Potential SF Trend

SF C

apac

ity (i

n Dw

ellin

g Un

its) /

SF

Hous

ehol

ds

Single FamilySupply Tranches

Single FamilyDemand Projec-

tions

Metro 2010-2045 Growth Distribution Process Project Update to MTAC January 4, 2012.

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