Megatrends Megatrends in in Education Education & Technology& Technology

2004 - 20052004 - 2005

Neil Evans, @WorkNeil Evans, @WorkNeilEv@aol.com NeilEv@aol.com Jan-2004Jan-2004

The Global The Global Economic Economic LadderLadder

Lowest Rungs – Textiles, Shoes & Low-tech Lowest Rungs – Textiles, Shoes & Low-tech GoodsGoods

Middle Rungs – Manufacturing Middle Rungs – Manufacturing Highest Rungs – Electronics, Copyright Goods Highest Rungs – Electronics, Copyright Goods

(music, software, movies) & Pharmaceuticals(music, software, movies) & Pharmaceuticals

The State The State of of

Nations Nations in the in the

Global EconomyGlobal Economy

Every nation - climb the Economic LadderEvery nation - climb the Economic Ladder Three Climbing Essentials:Three Climbing Essentials:

1.1. Education – Highly Educated WorkforceEducation – Highly Educated Workforce2.2. Innovation - Brainpower not Horsepower Innovation - Brainpower not Horsepower 3.3. Information – effective use of InformationInformation – effective use of Information

#1 Essential –#1 Essential –

Highly Educated WorkforceHighly Educated Workforce

Note: Based on 1999 Income; Source: US Census, College Board

$100,000

$97,325

$74,474

$64,406

$49,279

$44,149

$35,744

$21,737

$17,261

$0 $20,000 $40,000 $60,000 $80,000 $100,000 $120,000

Professional degree

Doctorate degree

Master's degree

Bachelor's degree

Associate degree

Some college, no degree

High school graduate

Ninth to 12th grade

Below ninth grade

US & W. Europe per capita GDP (in US $)US & W. Europe per capita GDP (in US $)

#2 Essential –#2 Essential –

Innovative TechnologiesInnovative Technologies

Source: Monitoring the World Economy 1820-1990 andThe World Economy in the 20th Century – World Bank

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2010

Year

Val

ue

in U

S $

#3 Essential –#3 Essential –

The New Economy The New Economy is an Information & is an Information & Services EconomyServices Economy

Percentage of Employees by Industry

0

20

40

60

80

100

1960 1970 1980 1990 1997 2005

Service

Goods

Source: Newsweek, 01-Feb-99

New Economy in NW – Software, Aerospace, New Economy in NW – Software, Aerospace, E-Commerce, Biotech, Trucks & Coffee E-Commerce, Biotech, Trucks & Coffee

WA State – High unemployment & budget deficitWA State – High unemployment & budget deficit 11 of Fortune 100 Company HQ11 of Fortune 100 Company HQ Located @BCC – One of “10 Best” Community Located @BCC – One of “10 Best” Community

Colleges in NationColleges in Nation

A View from A View from the NorthWestthe NorthWest

The State of The State of Education Education in 2003in 2003

WA State – $2.4B deficit, Ed budget cutsWA State – $2.4B deficit, Ed budget cuts US Community Colleges – higher demand & US Community Colleges – higher demand &

lower state funding. The “New Grad School”lower state funding. The “New Grad School” Employer-funded Education - downEmployer-funded Education - down Student- & scholarship-funded Ed – upStudent- & scholarship-funded Ed – up 11.5% increase in Tuition across all US CCs11.5% increase in Tuition across all US CCs

#1 The Dilbert #1 The Dilbert Megatrend Megatrend

Geek is ChicGeek is Chicin Educationin Education

#2 Megatrend -#2 Megatrend -

Education – Education – provides provides growth growth to theto the US EconomyUS Economy

Part of Services Sector – 35% of EconomyPart of Services Sector – 35% of Economy Contribution to US GDP – $750B (7%)Contribution to US GDP – $750B (7%) Sector & Productivity growth – 5% annual for Sector & Productivity growth – 5% annual for

1999-2003 1999-2003 Gains – Distance Ed & E-learning TechnologiesGains – Distance Ed & E-learning Technologies

#3 Megatrend -#3 Megatrend -

US Community US Community CollegesColleges

Low-cost, High-value Ed ProvidersLow-cost, High-value Ed Providers

Provide accessible & affordable educationProvide accessible & affordable education Provide - best Educational “Value”Provide - best Educational “Value” Match Education to Workplace needsMatch Education to Workplace needs Over 14M students enrolledOver 14M students enrolled

#4 Megatrend -#4 Megatrend -

Growth Growth of of Standards-based Standards-based EducationEducation2003 Edition – Jointly with CompTIA & NSSB2003 Edition – Jointly with CompTIA & NSSB

IT Programs based on Skill StandardsIT Programs based on Skill Standards 8 IT Career Clusters Taxonomy8 IT Career Clusters Taxonomy Adopted by ITAA Annual National SurveyAdopted by ITAA Annual National Survey Partner with EDU Publishers Standards-Partner with EDU Publishers Standards-

based Coursewarebased Courseware

#5 Megatrend-#5 Megatrend-

Shift Shift in in US US DemographicsDemographicsGen-X & Gen-N Gen-X & Gen-N Generations RuleGenerations Rule Retirement of 76M Baby-Boomers Retirement of 76M Baby-Boomers Higher Ed – 50% Faculty over 50Higher Ed – 50% Faculty over 50 Ascension of 41M Gen-X Ascension of 41M Gen-X Rise of the 72M Net-Generation Rise of the 72M Net-Generation Growth in “Nontraditional” StudentsGrowth in “Nontraditional” Students

Source: American Demographics, Chronicle HE

# 6 Megatrend –# 6 Megatrend –

Shift Shift in in Student Student DemographicsDemographics

75% of Students are Nontraditional75% of Students are Nontraditional

Delayed enrollment after High SchoolDelayed enrollment after High School Work full- or part-time & Student part-timeWork full- or part-time & Student part-time Financially independent (Financial Aid)Financially independent (Financial Aid) Have dependents or single parentsHave dependents or single parents

# 7 Megatrend –# 7 Megatrend –

Shift Shift inin Student Student Educational Educational GoalsGoals

4 Student Segments & Ed Needs4 Student Segments & Ed Needs

1.1. Emerging Workforce – Full-service Education Emerging Workforce – Full-service Education

2.2. Displaced Workforce – Reskilled ASAPDisplaced Workforce – Reskilled ASAP3.3. Incumbent Workforce - UpskilledIncumbent Workforce - Upskilled4.4. Re-Careering Workforce – Reskilled SlowRe-Careering Workforce – Reskilled Slow

#8 Megatrend#8 Megatrend – –

GlobalizationGlobalizationof US Educationof US Education

Export of US education - with culture, Export of US education - with culture, commerce & business practices commerce & business practices

Education - fastest growing US exportEducation - fastest growing US export IT education - fastest growing segmentIT education - fastest growing segment Growth of Int’l students in US distance EdGrowth of Int’l students in US distance Ed

Source: Wall St. Journal, 09-Dec-02

#9 Megatrend#9 Megatrend – –

Shift Shift in in

Education Education IndustryIndustry

Growth of Web-based Distance EducationGrowth of Web-based Distance Education Shift from local monopoly to Web competitionShift from local monopoly to Web competition Shift from Labor intensive to Capital intensiveShift from Labor intensive to Capital intensive Shift in Funding streams from state-supportShift in Funding streams from state-support

Source: “Education Wars: The Battle over Information Age Technology” by James H Snider, 1996.

#10 Megatrend –#10 Megatrend –

Webification Webification All Human Knowledge All Human Knowledge goes Digital & Globalgoes Digital & Global

Source: The Economist, May 1999

1.1. Internet Data surpasses Voice trafficInternet Data surpasses Voice traffic2.2. Spam surpasses “good” email (2003)Spam surpasses “good” email (2003)3.3. Internet - subsume ALL Networks and Internet - subsume ALL Networks and

MediaMedia4.4. Combined Impact of Telegraph & RailroadCombined Impact of Telegraph & Railroad

#11 Megatrend –#11 Megatrend –

IT Degrees & IT Degrees & Certifications Certifications ConvergeConverge

IT Certifications - portable & marketable IT Certifications - portable & marketable ““Demand Pull” by EmployersDemand Pull” by Employers ““Supply Push” by Providers & IT ProsSupply Push” by Providers & IT Pros Current Trend: Employers - “Credentials Current Trend: Employers - “Credentials

Portfolio”Portfolio”

#12 Megatrend –#12 Megatrend –

Cyber-Security Cyber-Security & Workforce& Workforce

IT Network part of US “Critical Infrastructure”IT Network part of US “Critical Infrastructure” Cybersecurity part of Homeland DefenseCybersecurity part of Homeland Defense Solution – Policies & Procedures, Technology Solution – Policies & Procedures, Technology

& User Education& User Education Cybersecurity professionals – fastest growing Cybersecurity professionals – fastest growing

segment segment

#13 Megatrend –#13 Megatrend –

National IT National IT Skills ShortageSkills Shortage

Technical Workers - Fastest growing segment Technical Workers - Fastest growing segment of U.S. workforceof U.S. workforce

IT Outsourcing Vendors – growth in IT workersIT Outsourcing Vendors – growth in IT workers Over 10.5M IT Workers in US (ITAA-2003)Over 10.5M IT Workers in US (ITAA-2003) Account for 7% of US workforce Account for 7% of US workforce Average Salary - $70K with benefitsAverage Salary - $70K with benefits

Source: ITAA Survey, AEA

#14 Megatrend –#14 Megatrend –

Fastest Growing Occupations Fastest Growing Occupations (2000-2010)(2000-2010)

OccupationOccupation EmploymentEmployment(in thousands of jobs)(in thousands of jobs)

ChangeChange

20002000 20102010 %%

Computer Software Engineers, ApplicationsComputer Software Engineers, Applications 380380 760760 100100

Computer Support SpecialistsComputer Support Specialists 506506 996996 9797

Computer Software Engineers, Systems Computer Software Engineers, Systems SoftwareSoftware 317317 601601 9090

Network & Computer Systems Network & Computer Systems AdministratorsAdministrators 229229 416416 8282

Network Systems & Data Communications Network Systems & Data Communications AnalystsAnalysts 119119 211211 7777

Database AdministratorsDatabase Administrators 106106 176176 6666

Computer Systems AnalystsComputer Systems Analysts 431431 689689 6060

Source, Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2003

#15 Megatrend –#15 Megatrend –

The Long The Long Commute Commute

Impact of Global OutsourcingImpact of Global Outsourcing

Web-based Systems – work anywhereWeb-based Systems – work anywhere High growth locations – India, Philippines, High growth locations – India, Philippines,

Malaysia, Ireland & ChinaMalaysia, Ireland & China IT & Business Process Outsourcing (BPO)IT & Business Process Outsourcing (BPO) 3.3M US jobs move offshore by 20153.3M US jobs move offshore by 2015

Source: Forrester Research, 2003

Tracking New Trends –Tracking New Trends –

Explore Future IT Explore Future IT Program AreasProgram Areas

Cybersecurity, Computer Forensics & Cybersecurity, Computer Forensics & Biometrics Technology - PeteBiometrics Technology - Pete

Nanotechnology & Microfabrication – Nanotechnology & Microfabrication – Duncan – the “Nano-man”Duncan – the “Nano-man”

Bioinformatics & Health Care IT – Jim Bioinformatics & Health Care IT – Jim