MegaTrends and the World of 2020: At the Intersection of Business and Technical Trends

8/13/2019 MegaTrends and the World of 2020: At the Intersection of Business and Technical Trends

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Copyright 2014 Hewlett-Packard Development Company, L.P. The information contained herein is subject to change without notice.

MegaTrends and the World of 2020At the intersection of business and technical trends

Charlie Bess, P.E.HP Fellow, Application Business Services Americas Chief Technologist


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Drivers of Change


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W

ork Human augmented automation Everyone is a contractor

Diverse workforce

Health Personalized Healthcare

Longer, Healthier life*

Chronic is normal

Business New competitors

Coopition everywhere Need to Share

Transportation Security challeng Move bits not ato

Tight economics

Science & Tech Bandwidth is dist

Attention engine Context is king

E

Demographics Older consumer Urbanization

Economy The new normal The Joule as currency

Religion Expanding Impact

Government & Society Flattening world Pockets of instability

F

Security Hacking is free

E


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Analytics

Automation

Security

4G, 5G

Multi-Gigabit networks

Social networks

Open Source SaaS

Licensed SW

Cloud

Mobile

Distributed

Mobile devices

Sensors (audio, video, GPS)

Derived data

Unlimited

Data

UnlimitedComputing

LimitedAttention

UnlimitedConnection

UnlimitedApplications

Technical Enablers

New Value

A conflict between abundance and scarcity


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Scarcity Will Drive New Work ModelsGrowth in Developing World, Demand for Scarce Resources, Skill Shortages

Work is increasingly a collaborative experience not a place

New careers enabled by technology

Virtual companies an aggregation of contracted services

Multiple jobs / careers, not one job for life

Constant learning - continual education and re-training

Migration to meet work demands

Changing role of IT Department

Automation of normal


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Population 7.675 billion people globa

Digital Natives

Significant porHealthcare Cost of human DNA Seque

Economics China likely to overtake U

Inf

ormationTechnology

Global Sensor Market $25 Billio

Extrapolated World of 2020Technologically the world will be very different

Internet

>30 billion Nodes (Intern

>300 Exabytes per mont

9.6 Billion mobile subscr

1.1 Billion broadband sub

Cyber Security Market : >

System memory (DRAM) = 582MB

Transistor per $ (average) = 4 Bil

Data: 44 time increase over 2009

Magnetic Storage = 2 Terabytes

Software: Average car will conta


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New Style of Business (and IT)

Client / Server

New St

of IT

Social Media

Systems of

Systems of En


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Major Trends Shifting The View of the Future

Explosion

at the Edge

Modeling &

Simulation

Personalization

Enterprise 3.0

Sust


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Explosion at the Edge


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Why is this happening?

Explosion at the Edge

Source: Sensor Wireless

Sensing


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103

This will be our digital

universe tomorrow

Brontobyte 1027

1024

This is our digital universe today

= 250 trillion of DVDs

Yottabyte10

21

1.3 Ze

Information from the Internet of Things:More data than we can imagine, but it's context that's important

Today data scientist useYottabytes to describe theamount of social metadata that

flows across the Internet today

In the near future,

Brontobyte will be the

measurement to describethe type of sensor data that will

be generated from the Internet of

Things

10181 EB of data is created on the internet each day. The

proposed Square Kilometer Array telescope willgenerated an EB of data per day

Exabyte

1012

Terabyte500TB of new data per day

are ingested in Facebook databases

1015

PetabThe CER

generate10

9

Gigabyte106

Megabyte


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Need for Speed Speed of Action Speed of Change

Sense & Respond to Cause & Effect


Modeling, Simulation & Automation


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An intelligent end-to-end approach delivers the right information to the right person

Translation of data into value

Intelligent End-to-end Approa

ExecutiveDashboards

EnterpriseSearch

CustomerInteraction

PredictiveAnalytics

Transactional Operational Stra

Volume

Variety

Velocity

CRM(Sales)

Web ERP(Procurement)

Supply Chain(Ops)

HR

Social Media Video Audio Email Texts Transactional

Data

Word, Excel LogMGD


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Immediate no tolerance f

Simple a requirement for

Quality expected No failur

Enterprise (trans-Enterpris

Personalized necessary &

Secure/Private you secure

Participative be part of th

Mobile no gaps allowed

Personalization

The New ConsumersWhy is this happening?


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BYOD is about more than devices

Its about the experience


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Enterprise 3.0

Deeper Understanding of the Power of the WebWhy is this happening?


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Todays cloud techniques will be applied to the rest of the business

Youll need autonomous agents that manage by excep

Today, IT Ops staff can

receive dozens of alerts

ranging from critical

to system spam

Alerts are collected & analyzed

real-time changes are made

optimizing reliability and the

use of resources like

energy and bandwidth

The environment isolates

critical alerts it cant handle

and sends them to individuals

who can act on them

Less

batc

those


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Enterprise 1.0 Enterprise 2.0 Enterpr

Org Structure Hierarchy Flat Networked - se

Operational Flow Friction Smooth Modeled an

Structure Bureaucracy Agility Predictive, se

Governance Rigid Flexible Self-org

Source of change IT-driven technology/Lack of user control User-driven technology Need driven

Driver for change Top down Bottom up Holi

Organizational theory Centralized Distributed Context-

Collaboration Teams are in one building/one time zone Teams are global Services collaborat

Owners Silos and boundaries Fuzzy boundaries, open borders Dynamic b

Information attitude Need to know Transparency Need to

Information structure Information systems are structured anddictated

Information systems are emergent Knowledge

Informationorganization

Taxonomies Folksonomies Sema

Information flow Scheduled On demand Proactive and

Interfaces Complex Simpler Dynamically

Standards Closed/proprietary Open Negotiated a

Product cycles Long time-to-market cycles Short time-to-market cycles Mass cust

Enterprise 3.0


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Sustainability


Expectation

Regulation

Constraining

Corporate Responsibility


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Futurists tend to describe change like this...


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However, Change Feels More Like This

You can plan for the future yinstead of the one youll end


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The World of Tomorrow will be characterized by

Final Thoughts

Many factors that enable change are predictable, so plan to take advantage of them.

Scarcity affects value Determine how what is abundant can maximize the value ofwhat is scarce

The rate of change and transformation is increasing. We need to prepare people toassimilate and take advantage of change.

The increasing digitization of society, commerce, personal and professional lives is not replacement for todays processes and systems, but adds capabilities

Social influence is beyond the control of any individual ecosystem but will impact allorganizations, so make it work for you.


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Charlie Bess

+1 469 767-2311

[email protected]

Blog: www.hp.com/go/tnbt

Twitter: @cebess

2014 President of the International Society of Service Innovation Professionals (ISSIP.org)
mailto:[email protected]://www.hp.com/go/tnbthttp://www.issip.org/http://www.issip.org/http://www.hp.com/go/tnbtmailto:[email protected]

MegaTrends and the World of 2020: At the Intersection of Business and Technical Trends

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