Market Outlook, 11-06-2013
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Transcript of Market Outlook, 11-06-2013
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7/28/2019 Market Outlook, 11-06-2013
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Market OutlookJune 11, 2013
Dealers Diary
Indian shares are expected to open in negative, tracking negative cues from SGX
Nifty and most of the Asian indices
After moving notably higher over the course of the two previous sessions, US stocks
closed roughly flat following choppy trading day. The lackluster performance on
Wall Street came as traders stayed on the sidelines following the rally seen last
Friday in reaction to the monthly jobs report. Meanwhile, the
European markets ended Monday's session with mixed results. The May jobs report
from the U.S. at the end of the previous week indicated that the economic growth is
not gathering sufficient momentum for the Federal Reserve to scale down its bond-
buying program, providing some relief to recent investor anxiety. However, weak
Chinese economic data indicating sluggish activity across the worlds second
largest economy continued to worry investors.
Back home, Indian shares failed to hold to their early gains on Monday, with a
depreciating rupee weighing on the markets. The Indian rupee fell to a record low
of 57.81 against the dollar in the afternoon, deepening worries about the widening
current account deficit and the outlook for the economy.
Markets Today
The trend deciding level for the day is 19,465 / 5,889 levels. If NIFTY trades above
this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally
up to 19,562 19,683 / 5,921 5,963 levels. However, if NIFTY trades below
19,465 / 5,889 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to
19,343 19,246 / 5,846 5,815 levels.
Indices S2 S1 PIVOT R1 R2SENSEX 19,246 19,343 19,465 19,562 19,683NIFTY 5,815 5,846 5,889 5,921 5,963
News Analysis RBI penalizes Axis Bank, HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank L&T has bagged `6,700cr western dedicated freight corridor contract Yes Bank gets shareholder nod to raise USD 500mn
Refer detailed news analysis on the following page
Net Inflows (June 7, 2013)` cr Purch Sales Net MTD YTDFII 2,856 2,222 635 1249 83,101
MFs 514 382 132 (198) (12,784)
FII Derivatives (June 10, 2013)` cr Purch Sales Net Open InterestIndex Futures 1,206 1,208 (2) 6,770
Stock Futures 1,580 1,505 75 28,543
Gainers / LosersGainers Losers
Company Price (`) chg (%) Company Price (`) chg (%)Glaxosmithkl Cons 5,688 3.8 Jet Air India 404 (11.2)
MCX 911 3.6 United Brew-$ 645 (9.3)
Wipro 343 2.1 Jain Irrigation 57 (9.1)Apollo Hosp 1,002 2.0 Muthoot Fin 134 (5.4)
Ultratech Cem 1,890 1.8 Exide Inds 131 (5.3)
Domestic Indices Chg (%) (Pts) (Close)BSE Sensex 0.1 12 19,441
Nifty (0.1) (3) 5,878
MID CAP (0.9) (56) 6,332
SMALL CAP (0.8) (47) 5,915
BSE HC (1.0) (93) 8,799
BSE PSU (0.4) (27) 6,501
BANKEX (1.1) (157) 13,828
AUTO (0.6) (64) 10,828
METAL (1.0) (81) 8,319
OIL & GAS 0.1 9 8,498
BSE IT 1.0 62 6,200
Global Indices Chg (%) (Pts) (Close)Dow Jones (0.1) (10) 15,239NASDAQ 0.1 5 3,474
FTSE (0.2) (12) 6,400
Nikkei 4.9 637 13,514
Hang Sang 0.2 40 21,615
Straits Times 0.5 16 3,201
Shanghai Com (1.3) (30) 2,211
Indian ADR Chg (%) (Pts) (Close)INFY 0.2 0.1 $43.1
WIT (1.3) (0.1) $7.5IBN (3.0) (1.3) $42.9
HDB (2.2) (0.9) $38.3
Advances / Declines BSE NSEAdvances 873 433
Declines 1,428 943
Unchanged 145 79
Volumes (` cr)BSE 1,527
NSE 8,406
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Market OutlookJune 11, 2013
RBI penalizes Axis Bank, HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank
RBI has completed its own investigation in response to Cobraposts money
laundering allegation on Axis Bank, HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank. It has found
these banks guilty of violating certain regulations/instructions (primarily KYC
norms) and has imposed a monetary penalty of `5cr, `4.5cr and `1cr, respectively
on Axis, HDFC and ICICI Bank. Based on its own investigations, the RBI has
denied finding any prima facie evidence suggesting money laundering. RBI has
further stated that a similar scrutiny is at different stages of completion on 36 other
banks.
L&T bagged `6,700cr western dedicated freight corridor contract
A consort ium of Larsen and Toubro (L&T) and Japan's Sojitz Corp has bagged an
order worth `6,700cr from the Dedicated Freight Corridor Corporation of India
Ltd (DFCCIL). The work involves construction of 626 km of a double-track corridorfrom Rewari in Haryana to Iqbalgarh in Gujarat via Rajasthan, spanning three
states. The project is expected to be complete in four years. We continue tomaintain our Buy rating on the stock with a target price of `1,761.
Yes Bankgetsshareholdernod to raise USD 500mn
Yes Bank in its AGM held on June 8, 2013 received shareholders approval to raise
capital of USD 500mn. The management has stated plans to raise this sum
through a combination of Gross Depository Receipts (GDRs), QIP and Domestic
Institutional Investors (DII) in order to ensure widest participation of all investor
classes. As of 4QFY2013, the banks capital adequacy ratio (CAR) continued to be
strong at 18.3%, with tier-I ratio at 9.5%. With RoE of above 22%, the banks
retained earnings itself are capable for funding a balance sheet growth of 18-
20%. At CMP, the stock trades at a valuation of 2.5x FY2014E ABV and 2.1x
FY2015E ABV, which in our view, factors in most of the positives for the bank and
offers limited scope for upside from the current levels. Hence, we maintain ourNeutral rating on the stock.
Economic and Political News
Shell, ONGC eye tie-up for retail Government could take more steps to curb gold import: Raghuram Rajan Rupee slide temporary; panic unwarranted: Finance Ministry
Corporate News
Coal India Ltd approves FSA renewal with non-power consumers, with riders Power Grid signs pact with six North-eastern states to improve network GMR Infrastructure subsidiary picks 17% stake in Delhi Duty Free Services at
IGI airport
Source: Economic Times, Business Standard, Business Line, Financial Express, Mint
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Global economic events release calendar
Date Time Country Event Description Unit Period Bloomberg Data
Last Reported Estimated
June 11, 2013 2:00PM UK Industrial Production (YoY) % Change Apr (1.40) --
June 12, 2013 2:00PM UK Jobless claims change % Change May (7.30) --
11:00AM India Industrial Production YoY % Change Apr 2.50 --
June 14, 2013 2:30PM Euro Zone Euro-Zone CPI (YoY) % May F 1.20 --
6:00PM US Producer Price Index (mom) % Change May (0.70) 0.10
6:45PM US Industrial Production % May (0.53) 0.30
12:00PM India Monthly Wholesale Prices YoY% % Change May 4.89 --
June 17, 2013 11:00AM India RBI Repo rate % Jun 17 7.25 --
11:00AM India RBI Cash Reserve ratio % Jun 17 4.00 --
11:00AM India RBI Reverse Repo rate % Jun 17 6.25 --
June 18, 2013 2:00PM UK CPI (YoY) % Change May 2.40 --
6:00PM US Housing Starts Thousands May 853.00 --
6:00PM US Building permits Thousands May 1,005.00 --
6:00PM US Consumer price index (mom) % Change May (0.40) --
June 19, 2013 11:30PM US FOMC rate decision % Jun 19 0.25 --
June 20, 2013 7:30PM Euro Zone Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence Value Jun A (21.90) --
7:30PM US Existing home sales Million May 4.97 --
June 25, 2013 7:30PM US Consumer Confidence S.A./ 1985=100 Jun 76.20 --
7:30PM US New home sales Thousands May 454.00 --
June 26, 2013 6:00PM US GDP Qoq (Annualised) % Change 1Q T 2.40 --
June 27, 2013 1:25PM Germany Unemployment change (000's) Thousands Jun 21.00 --
2:00PM UK GDP (YoY) % Change 1Q F 0.60 --
July 1, 2013 12:00AM China PMI Manufacturing Value Jun 50.80 --
UK PMI Manufacturing Value Jun 51.30 --July 4, 2013 12:00AM UK BOE Announces rates % Ratio Jul 4 0.50 0.50
Euro Zone ECB announces interest rates % Jul 4 0.50 --
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
June 11, 2013
Market Outlook
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Market OutlookJune 11, 2013
www.angelbroking.com
Macro watch
Exhibit 1:Q uarterly G D P trends
Source: CSO, Angel Research
Exhibit 2:IIP trends
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 3:M onthly WPI inflation trends
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 4:M a nufacturing a nd services PM I
Source: Ma rket, Angel Research; N ote: Level above 50 ind icates expansion
Exhibit 5:Expo rts an d impo rts growth trends
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Exhibit 6:Key policy rates
Source: RBI, Angel Research
9.3
7.7
11.4
9.5
8.69.2
9.9
7.5
6.56.0
5.1 5.4 5.24.7 4.8
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
12.0
2QFY10
3QFY10
4QFY10
1QFY11
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
4QFY12
1QFY13
2QFY13
3QFY13
4QFY13
(%)
(1.3)
2.5
(2.0)
(0.1)
2.0
(0.7)
8.4
(1.0) (0.6)
2.4
0.5
2.5
(4.0)
(2.0)
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Apr-12
May-1
2
Jun-1
2
Jul-12
Aug-1
2
Sep-1
2
Oc-1
2
No-1
2
Dec-1
2
Jan-1
3
Feb
-13
Mar-13
(%)
7.6 7.58.0 8.1
7.3 7.2 7.3 7.3 7.3
6.0
4.9
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
Jun-1
2
Jul-12
Aug-1
2
Sep-1
2
Oc-1
2
No-1
2
Dec-1
2
Jan-1
3
Feb
-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
(%)
48.0
50.0
52.0
54.0
56.0
58.0
Mar-12
Apr-12
May-1
2
Jun-1
2
Jul-12
Aug-1
2
Sep-1
2
Oc-1
2
Nov-1
2
Dec-1
2
Jan-1
3
Feb
-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-1
3
Mfg. PMI Services PMI
(15.0)
0.0
15.0
May-1
2
Jun-1
2
Jul-12
Aug-1
2
Sep-1
2
Oc-1
2
No-1
2
Dec-1
2
Jan-1
3
Feb
-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
Exports yoy growth Imports yoy growth(%)
7.25
6.25
4.003.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
9.00
Jun-1
2
Jul-12
Aug-1
2
Sep-1
2
Oc-1
2
No-1
2
Dec-1
2
Jan-1
3
Feb
-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
Ma-1
3
Repo rate Reverse Repo rate CRR(%)
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Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS () PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)
( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E
Agri / Agri Chemical
Rallis Neutral 139 - 2,702 1,657 1,906 14.1 14.1 7.7 8.9 18.1 15.6 3.8 3.2 22.2 21.9 1.6 1.3
United Phosphorus Buy 153 232 6,776 10,298 11,310 16.5 16.5 20.5 23.2 7.5 6.6 1.3 1.1 18.0 17.4 0.6 0.5
Auto & Auto Ancillary
Amara Raja Batteries Buy 246 285 4,205 3,418 3,892 14.5 14.5 18.5 20.4 13.3 12.1 3.2 2.6 26.6 23.8 1.3 1.0
Apollo Tyres Buy 90 104 4,524 13,852 15,487 11.4 11.5 12.8 14.9 7.0 6.0 1.1 1.0 17.5 17.3 0.5 0.4
Ashok Leyland Buy 22 27 5,960 14,038 16,442 7.6 8.7 1.1 2.2 21.4 10.0 1.8 1.6 6.2 12.5 0.5 0.4
Automotive Axle# Neutral 240 - 363 834 965 9.3 10.6 17.3 27.1 13.9 8.9 1.3 1.2 9.5 14.0 0.5 0.4Bajaj Auto Buy 1,769 2,056 51,175 22,684 25,908 18.0 18.5 117.3 137.1 15.1 12.9 5.4 4.3 39.9 37.2 1.9 1.5
Bharat Forge Neutral 228 - 5,314 6,198 6,793 14.6 14.9 14.5 17.3 15.7 13.2 2.0 1.8 13.6 14.7 1.0 0.9
Bosch India* Neutral 9,120 - 28,636 9,821 11,394 17.0 17.3 373.5 438.7 24.4 20.8 4.4 3.7 18.0 17.9 2.6 2.2
CEAT Buy 112 170 383 5,325 5,974 8.4 8.3 40.8 48.5 2.7 2.3 0.4 0.4 17.3 17.6 0.2 0.2
Exide Industries Accumulate 131 150 11,093 7,053 8,061 14.2 14.5 7.8 9.1 16.7 14.3 2.8 2.4 18.1 18.2 1.3 1.1
FAG Bearings* Neutral 1,450 - 2,410 1,525 1,742 14.5 15.7 88.4 109.5 16.4 13.3 2.4 2.0 15.5 16.5 1.4 1.2
Hero Motocorp Accumulate 1,652 1,819 32,997 25,274 27,658 14.1 13.7 110.2 139.9 15.0 11.8 5.5 4.3 39.8 40.7 1.1 1.0
JK Tyre Buy 117 154 479 7,972 8,754 7.1 7.1 37.5 44.0 3.1 2.7 0.5 0.4 16.4 16.6 0.3 0.3
Mahindra and Mahindra Accumulate 977 1,090 59,983 45,254 51,197 11.4 11.7 61.2 70.2 16.0 13.9 3.3 2.8 22.7 21.9 1.1 0.9
Maruti Buy 1,521 1,847 45,946 48,455 55,723 11.2 10.9 107.8 123.2 14.1 12.4 2.1 1.8 16.2 16.0 0.8 0.7
Motherson Sumi Accumulate 211 222 12,386 28,442 31,493 7.5 7.8 12.5 14.8 16.8 14.3 4.2 3.3 27.5 25.8 0.6 0.5
Subros Buy 24 30 143 1,479 1,685 10.0 9.9 5.5 7.5 4.4 3.2 0.5 0.4 11.1 13.7 0.4 0.3
Tata Motors Buy 296 347 79,329 215,016 237,404 13.3 13.6 36.2 41.5 8.2 7.1 1.8 1.5 24.6 23.2 0.4 0.4
TVS Motor Buy 35 41 1,665 7,715 8,584 6.0 6.1 5.0 5.8 7.1 6.1 1.2 1.1 18.1 18.5 0.2 0.1
Capital Goods
ABB* Sell 621 461 13,153 8,073 9,052 5.5 6.9 11.5 16.9 53.9 36.6 4.9 4.7 9.3 13.1 1.6 1.4BGR Energy Neutral 151 - 1,093 4,114 4,886 11.4 10.7 24.9 28.0 6.1 5.4 0.8 0.7 25.2 22.6 0.6 0.5
BHEL Neutral 184 - 45,060 44,054 39,326 16.8 15.1 20.6 16.1 8.9 11.5 1.9 1.8 23.5 16.1 0.9 1.0
Blue Star Buy 162 230 1,457 2,896 3,087 5.6 6.2 9.3 11.7 17.4 13.8 2.9 2.5 17.6 19.2 0.6 0.5
Crompton Greaves Buy 88 117 5,668 13,446 15,272 6.7 7.6 6.6 8.9 13.3 9.9 1.5 1.3 11.4 14.0 0.5 0.5
Jyoti Structures Neutral 24 - 200 3,360 3,597 9.7 9.8 7.3 10.2 3.3 2.4 0.7 0.6 8.8 11.4 0.3 0.3
KEC International Buy 38 63 977 7,709 8,399 6.7 7.2 6.1 8.5 6.3 4.5 0.8 0.7 20.2 23.0 0.3 0.3
Thermax Neutral 608 - 7,239 5,780 6,430 9.5 9.6 29.8 33.0 20.4 18.4 3.4 3.0 17.9 17.4 1.1 0.9
Cement
ACC Accumulate 1,226 1,361 23,012 11,979 13,254 19.7 21.3 77.1 91.4 15.9 13.4 2.8 2.5 18.7 20.0 1.6 1.4
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Market Outlook
Stock Watch
June 11, 2013
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7/28/2019 Market Outlook, 11-06-2013
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Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS () PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)
( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E
Cement
Ambuja Cements Neutral 173 - 26,696 10,232 11,762 23.5 24.5 10.3 12.2 16.8 14.2 2.8 2.5 17.2 18.6 2.1 1.7
India Cements Neutral 64 - 1,961 4,929 5,434 17.4 17.1 8.9 10.9 7.2 5.9 0.5 0.5 7.7 9.1 0.8 0.7
J K Lakshmi Cement Buy 116 143 1,361 2,247 2,742 21.0 23.1 17.8 21.8 6.5 5.3 1.0 0.8 15.5 16.4 0.5 0.9
Madras Cements Neutral 239 - 5,693 4,234 4,788 23.9 24.0 18.5 22.8 13.0 10.5 2.1 1.8 17.2 18.2 1.7 1.4
Shree Cement^ Neutral 4,750 - 16,548 6,540 7,452 27.4 26.6 319.7 369.9 14.9 12.8 3.7 2.9 27.5 25.4 1.9 1.4
UltraTech Cement Neutral 1,890 - 51,823 21,947 25,049 23.8 23.8 106.1 119.8 17.8 15.8 2.9 2.6 17.7 17.3 2.4 2.1
ConstructionAshoka Buildcon Buy 195 255 1,027 1,928 2,234 21.0 21.5 18.0 22.2 10.9 8.8 0.9 0.9 10.2 10.1 1.9 1.9
Consolidated Co Neutral 10 - 192 2,281 2,492 5.9 6.9 0.7 2.0 15.2 5.2 0.3 0.3 2.3 6.5 0.4 0.3
IRB Infra Buy 116 157 3,864 3,997 4,312 45.5 46.4 15.7 16.6 7.4 7.0 1.1 1.0 15.2 14.5 3.4 3.6
ITNL Buy 172 230 3,346 7,444 8,041 27.4 28.9 29.8 32.1 5.8 5.4 0.8 0.7 14.9 14.2 2.5 2.6
IVRCL Infra Buy 18 29 540 5,673 5,892 8.1 8.4 1.4 1.8 12.2 9.6 0.3 0.2 2.0 2.6 0.5 0.5
Jaiprakash Asso. Buy 64 90 14,091 14,850 15,631 24.9 25.1 2.5 2.9 25.1 22.3 1.0 1.0 4.2 4.7 2.8 2.7
Larsen & Toubro Buy 1,406 1,761 86,629 68,946 78,040 10.5 10.5 77.9 88.3 18.1 15.9 2.6 2.3 15.5 15.6 1.4 1.2
Nagarjuna Const. Buy 29 42 751 6,167 6,945 8.0 8.2 2.7 3.6 11.0 8.1 0.3 0.3 2.7 3.6 0.5 0.5
Punj Lloyd Neutral 41 - 1,370 12,954 14,740 9.9 9.9 0.5 0.9 81.3 44.3 0.5 0.5 0.6 1.1 0.5 0.5
Sadbhav Engg. Buy 105 139 1,586 2,462 2,731 10.6 10.6 5.9 6.7 17.9 15.8 1.7 1.6 10.2 10.5 0.9 0.9
Simplex Infra Buy 99 131 490 6,308 7,033 9.5 9.6 11.9 18.7 8.3 5.3 0.4 0.3 4.5 6.7 0.5 0.5
Unity Infra Buy 29 41 214 2,146 2,339 13.7 13.8 11.0 11.5 2.6 2.5 0.2 0.2 9.3 9.0 0.6 0.6
Financials
Allahabad Bank Buy 114 144 5,680 6,876 7,545 2.6 2.5 28.2 30.9 4.0 3.7 0.6 0.5 12.8 12.7 - -
Andhra Bank Neutral 87 - 4,863 5,254 5,900 2.8 2.8 21.2 22.9 4.1 3.8 0.6 0.5 13.3 13.0 - -
Axis Bank Buy 1,356 1,853 63,558 19,055 22,710 3.3 3.2 130.7 152.3 10.4 8.9 1.7 1.5 17.2 17.6 - -Bank of Baroda Buy 652 851 27,479 16,365 18,781 2.2 2.3 121.3 142.5 5.4 4.6 0.8 0.7 15.1 15.7 - -
Bank of India Buy 287 350 17,102 14,482 16,383 2.3 2.3 58.1 68.1 4.9 4.2 0.7 0.6 14.4 15.0 - -
Bank of Maharashtra Buy 53 64 3,526 4,392 4,743 3.1 3.0 12.6 13.7 4.2 3.9 0.7 0.6 16.8 16.0 - -
Canara Bank Buy 393 481 17,408 11,928 13,467 2.1 2.2 74.8 86.0 5.3 4.6 0.7 0.7 13.7 14.2 - -
Central Bank Accumulate 65 69 6,800 8,249 9,211 2.4 2.5 14.9 18.2 4.4 3.6 0.6 0.6 12.5 13.8 - -
Corporation Bank Buy 379 495 5,789 5,558 6,121 2.0 2.0 98.4 107.7 3.9 3.5 0.6 0.5 14.9 14.5 - -
Dena Bank Buy 83 97 2,909 3,187 3,582 2.3 2.4 23.8 25.5 3.5 3.3 0.5 0.5 15.9 15.1 - -
Federal Bank Neutral 442 - 7,556 2,873 3,413 3.0 3.1 52.7 62.0 8.4 7.1 1.1 1.0 13.4 14.2 - -
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Market Outlook
Stock Watch
June 11, 2013
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7/28/2019 Market Outlook, 11-06-2013
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Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS () PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)
( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E
Financials
HDFC Accumulate 853 933 132,093 8,573 10,142 3.6 3.6 37.0 43.6 23.1 19.5 4.7 4.2 30.0 30.3 - -
HDFC Bank Accumulate 677 722 161,528 27,682 33,916 4.6 4.6 35.3 42.7 19.2 15.9 3.8 3.2 21.3 21.8 - -
ICICI Bank Buy 1,118 1,503 129,058 25,705 30,330 3.1 3.2 83.9 96.3 13.3 11.6 1.8 1.6 15.2 15.7 - -
IDBI Bank Buy 77 93 10,309 9,477 10,678 2.0 2.1 19.6 22.6 4.0 3.4 0.5 0.4 12.8 13.4 - -
Indian Bank Buy 139 185 5,991 6,185 6,978 3.0 3.0 37.0 42.2 3.8 3.3 0.6 0.5 14.8 15.1 - -
IOB Accumulate 59 66 5,452 8,142 8,956 2.5 2.5 16.5 20.7 3.6 2.9 0.4 0.4 11.8 13.4 - -
J & K Bank Neutral 1,284 - 6,222 3,074 3,140 3.5 3.2 224.7 201.5 5.7 6.4 1.1 1.0 20.6 16.1 - -LIC Housing Finance Accumulate 260 298 13,144 2,113 2,525 2.3 2.3 25.4 29.2 10.3 8.9 1.8 1.6 18.4 18.3 - -
Oriental Bank Buy 230 285 6,721 6,835 7,588 2.6 2.6 56.5 63.8 4.1 3.6 0.5 0.5 13.1 13.4 - -
Punjab Natl.Bank Buy 759 994 26,822 20,876 23,929 3.3 3.4 151.7 177.0 5.0 4.3 0.8 0.7 16.1 16.5 - -
South Ind.Bank Neutral 25 - 3,351 1,839 2,091 2.9 2.8 4.2 4.5 6.0 5.6 1.0 0.9 18.2 17.0 - -
St Bk of India Buy 2,012 2,637 137,634 67,243 76,612 3.1 3.0 242.4 284.8 8.3 7.1 1.3 1.1 16.3 16.8 - -
Syndicate Bank Accumulate 128 142 7,696 7,238 8,249 2.7 2.6 27.1 30.4 4.7 4.2 0.7 0.6 16.1 15.9 - -
UCO Bank Neutral 77 - 5,818 6,250 6,738 2.6 2.5 12.1 14.7 6.4 5.3 1.0 0.8 11.8 13.0 - -
Union Bank Buy 208 260 12,392 11,229 12,794 2.6 2.6 40.7 48.2 5.1 4.3 0.7 0.6 14.6 15.4 - -
United Bank Buy 51 65 1,900 3,443 3,998 2.4 2.6 15.1 20.4 3.4 2.5 0.4 0.4 12.1 14.8 - -
Vijaya Bank Neutral 51 - 2,507 2,730 3,059 1.9 2.0 10.2 11.3 5.0 4.5 0.6 0.5 11.8 12.0 - -
Yes Bank Neutral 490 - 17,611 4,390 5,411 2.8 2.8 41.6 47.9 11.8 10.2 2.5 2.1 23.2 22.1 - -
FMCG
Asian Paints Neutral 4,540 - 43,550 12,332 14,524 16.5 16.3 141.6 162.7 32.1 27.9 10.1 8.1 35.4 32.2 3.4 2.9
Britannia Neutral 690 - 8,254 6,417 7,502 6.1 6.3 23.2 27.9 29.8 24.7 10.2 8.0 38.3 36.4 1.3 1.1
Colgate Neutral 1,430 - 19,448 3,588 4,130 20.5 20.9 44.2 51.8 32.4 27.6 31.5 23.0 108.6 96.2 5.3 4.5
Dabur India Neutral 151 - 26,379 7,183 8,340 16.8 16.8 5.4 6.3 28.2 24.1 11.0 8.5 41.5 40.1 3.6 3.1GlaxoSmith Con* Neutral 5,688 - 23,922 3,617 4,259 16.1 16.4 122.2 148.7 46.6 38.3 14.5 11.6 34.1 33.7 6.2 5.1
Godrej Consumer Neutral 855 - 29,096 7,801 9,017 16.2 15.9 25.1 29.7 34.0 28.8 7.3 6.1 24.9 24.2 3.9 3.3
HUL Neutral 593 - 128,181 29,167 33,164 13.6 13.7 17.1 18.4 34.7 32.2 33.4 24.2 113.4 87.0 4.2 3.7
ITC Neutral 337 - 266,489 34,294 39,991 36.8 37.0 11.3 13.3 29.9 25.3 9.9 8.0 36.1 34.9 7.4 6.3
Marico Neutral 234 - 15,066 5,273 6,044 14.8 14.9 7.3 8.7 32.2 27.0 6.3 5.2 21.4 21.0 2.9 2.4
Nestle* Neutral 5,164 - 49,785 9,447 10,968 22.1 22.3 127.5 154.1 40.5 33.5 20.2 14.6 57.7 50.7 5.3 4.4
Tata Global Neutral 146 - 9,029 8,069 8,957 9.8 9.7 7.8 8.6 18.7 17.0 2.2 2.1 9.5 9.7 1.1 1.0
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Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS () PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)
( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E
IT
HCL Tech^ Accumulate 754 863 52,502 28,633 32,216 21.5 20.7 57.3 61.7 13.2 12.2 3.1 2.6 24.0 21.5 1.7 1.4
Hexaware* Accumulate 85 96 2,535 2,091 2,289 19.0 18.8 10.6 11.3 8.0 7.5 1.8 1.6 22.8 21.7 1.0 0.9
Infosys Neutral 2,487 - 142,815 43,338 47,244 27.5 27.7 169.4 182.6 14.7 13.6 3.1 2.6 20.8 19.3 2.6 2.3
Infotech Enterprises Accumulate 167 185 1,859 1,956 2,174 17.9 17.7 20.4 21.9 8.2 7.6 1.2 1.0 14.7 13.7 0.6 0.4
KPIT Cummins Accumulate 122 135 2,348 2,513 2,819 16.1 15.5 12.6 14.0 9.7 8.7 1.7 1.4 17.9 16.6 0.9 0.7
Mahindra Satyam Buy 107 126 12,551 8,278 9,062 20.3 20.1 10.5 11.4 10.1 9.4 2.3 1.9 23.1 20.0 1.1 0.9
Mindtree Accumulate 828 920 3,440 2,599 2,871 19.4 19.2 85.2 92.3 9.7 9.0 2.0 1.7 21.4 18.9 1.0 0.8Mphasis& Reduce 433 395 9,100 6,096 6,646 17.6 17.4 38.1 41.6 11.4 10.4 1.6 1.4 14.2 13.7 1.0 0.8
NIIT Buy 21 30 342 1,144 1,267 9.0 9.1 4.3 5.4 4.8 3.9 0.5 0.5 10.3 12.0 0.1 -
Persistent Accumulate 524 593 2,098 1,445 1,617 25.2 25.0 55.3 59.3 9.5 8.9 1.7 1.5 18.2 16.5 1.0 0.8
TCS Neutral 1,526 - 298,662 71,833 81,893 28.4 28.0 78.5 88.0 19.4 17.3 5.9 4.8 30.2 27.9 3.9 3.4
Tech Mahindra Buy 941 1,170 12,088 7,779 8,398 19.7 19.3 107.4 117.8 8.8 8.0 1.9 1.5 21.2 19.0 1.6 1.3
Wipro Accumulate 343 385 84,427 40,173 43,697 20.4 20.6 26.2 28.5 13.1 12.0 2.6 2.2 19.7 18.4 1.6 1.3
Media
D B Corp Buy 247 290 4,525 1,750 1,925 25.1 26.6 14.2 16.8 17.4 14.7 3.8 3.2 23.4 23.4 2.5 2.2
HT Media Buy 100 117 2,342 2,205 2,380 15.1 15.6 8.3 9.1 12.1 11.0 1.3 1.2 11.5 11.4 0.7 0.6
Jagran Prakashan Buy 91 119 3,012 1,664 1,825 20.9 23.0 6.4 7.8 14.1 11.7 2.9 2.6 21.0 23.1 1.9 1.7
PVR Neutral 326 - 1,293 1,359 1,540 17.3 17.4 17.2 21.6 18.9 15.2 1.9 1.7 10.3 12.0 1.4 1.2
Sun TV Network Neutral 423 - 16,682 2,287 2,551 69.7 70.5 20.0 23.3 21.2 18.2 5.2 4.6 26.4 27.3 6.9 6.1
Metals & Mining
Bhushan Steel Neutral 465 - 10,532 13,794 17,088 30.9 33.5 49.3 66.6 9.4 7.0 1.0 0.9 11.3 13.5 2.4 1.9
Coal India Accumulate 320 345 202,092 72,174 76,311 33.3 28.4 28.4 30.9 11.3 10.4 3.1 2.7 37.6 36.2 2.0 1.8
Electrosteel Castings Buy 15 24 493 1,976 2,017 11.8 12.7 1.3 2.6 12.0 5.8 0.1 0.1 2.6 5.2 0.6 0.2GMDC Buy 132 193 4,190 1,920 2,239 53.2 52.9 21.6 25.0 6.1 5.3 1.4 1.1 25.1 23.8 1.7 1.3
Hind. Zinc Buy 113 145 47,577 12,358 13,659 51.4 51.6 16.0 17.6 7.0 6.4 1.3 1.1 19.4 18.4 1.6 1.1
Hindalco Neutral 101 - 19,251 89,352 93,672 8.8 9.2 13.4 15.0 7.5 6.7 0.5 0.5 7.3 7.6 0.6 0.5
JSW Steel Neutral 725 - 16,182 39,973 40,926 17.2 17.0 71.9 82.8 10.1 8.8 0.9 0.8 9.0 9.6 0.8 0.7
MOIL Buy 202 248 3,397 1,010 1,046 46.5 47.6 26.8 28.8 7.5 7.0 1.1 1.0 15.4 14.7 1.0 0.7
Monnet Ispat Buy 129 193 819 2,326 2,709 21.4 23.1 33.3 43.1 3.9 3.0 0.3 0.3 8.3 9.9 1.4 1.0
Nalco Neutral 32 - 8,234 7,656 7,988 13.1 13.5 2.6 2.6 12.5 12.2 0.7 0.7 5.5 5.5 0.5 0.5
NMDC Buy 116 156 46,129 10,461 11,892 71.6 72.6 16.3 17.6 7.2 6.6 1.5 1.3 22.1 21.4 2.6 2.3
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Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS () PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)
( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E
Metals & Mining
SAIL Reduce 56 53 23,066 44,060 54,786 9.4 11.5 5.2 7.2 10.7 7.8 0.6 0.5 5.2 6.8 0.8 0.7
Sesa Goa Accumulate 152 166 13,180 3,742 4,426 32.9 32.8 30.0 29.8 5.1 5.1 0.7 0.6 14.3 12.5 4.3 3.6
Sterlite Inds Accumulate 88 100 29,439 44,462 45,568 23.2 24.7 18.1 20.2 4.8 4.3 0.5 0.5 11.3 11.4 0.6 0.5
Tata Steel Buy 290 378 28,204 140,917 151,537 9.7 10.8 30.9 47.6 9.4 6.1 0.9 0.8 9.6 13.4 0.6 0.5
Sarda Buy 106 153 379 1,494 1,568 19.1 20.3 31.3 36.5 3.4 2.9 0.4 0.3 11.8 12.4 0.6 0.5
Prakash Industries Buy 31 45 422 2,615 2,776 12.1 12.0 9.8 10.4 3.2 3.0 0.2 0.2 6.5 6.5 0.4 0.4
Godawari Power andIspat Buy 80 102 264 2,344 2,509 14.9 15.4 38.7 47.0 2.1 1.7 0.2 0.2 12.3 12.9 0.5 0.4
Oil & Gas
Cairn India Buy 290 345 55,312 16,482 16,228 69.4 53.3 53.3 49.6 5.4 5.8 0.8 0.8 16.5 13.6 2.0 1.7
GAIL Neutral 304 - 38,612 52,102 52,876 15.7 16.1 34.1 35.7 8.9 8.5 1.4 1.2 16.4 15.3 0.3 0.2
ONGC Buy 321 372 274,674 170,063 193,024 36.3 36.9 34.7 38.3 9.3 8.4 1.6 1.4 18.3 17.9 1.3 1.0
Reliance Industries Neutral 789 - 254,939 380,031 407,721 9.9 69.3 69.3 78.0 11.4 10.1 1.1 1.0 11.5 11.7 0.6 0.6
Gujarat Gas* Neutral 211 - 2,704 3,707 3,850 11.7 12.4 23.7 25.7 8.9 8.2 2.5 2.2 29.6 28.2 0.6 0.6
Indraprastha Gas Neutral 285 - 3,989 3,700 4,218 23.4 22.8 26.7 30.4 10.7 9.4 2.2 1.9 22.7 21.8 1.2 0.9
Petronet LNG Buy 140 167 10,481 40,356 40,872 5.8 6.4 15.0 16.7 9.3 8.4 2.0 1.7 23.0 21.5 0.3 0.3
Gujarat State PetronetLtd.
Neutral 57 - 3,202 1,171 1,287 91.9 91.9 10.1 11.3 5.6 5.0 0.9 0.8 17.3 16.8 - -
Pharmaceuticals
Alembic Pharma Reduce 147 139 2,763 1,736 2,008 17.1 18.9 10.7 13.9 13.7 10.5 4.3 3.2 35.0 34.7 1.7 1.4
Aurobindo Pharma Buy 176 271 5,124 6,641 7,637 15.9 15.9 17.3 20.6 10.2 8.5 1.6 1.4 19.5 18.9 1.2 1.0
Aventis* Neutral 2,503 - 5,764 1,682 1,917 16.6 16.6 92.4 99.1 27.1 25.3 3.8 3.8 15.7 14.8 3.1 2.5
Cadila Healthcare Buy 764 929 15,649 7,280 8,640 15.5 15.7 38.3 46.5 20.0 16.4 4.3 3.5 23.5 23.5 2.5 2.1
Cipla Buy 373 477 29,969 9,274 10,796 23.1 23.1 21.0 23.8 17.8 15.7 2.9 2.5 17.2 16.8 3.0 2.5
Dr Reddy's Buy 2,185 2,535 37,098 13,377 15,350 20.4 20.1 112.3 126.8 19.5 17.2 4.2 3.4 23.5 21.8 2.9 2.5
Dishman Pharma Buy 68 168 552 1,394 1,534 22.5 22.4 15.0 16.8 4.6 4.1 0.5 0.4 11.0 11.2 1.0 0.8
GSK Pharma* Neutral 2,505 - 21,214 2,854 3,145 28.6 28.6 76.6 83.3 32.7 30.1 9.8 8.9 31.1 31.0 6.6 5.9
Indoco Remedies Buy 63 78 584 760 922 15.3 15.3 6.1 7.8 10.4 8.1 1.3 1.1 12.9 14.7 1.0 0.8
Ipca labs Accumulate 604 665 7,623 3,243 3,826 20.5 21.5 36.0 44.4 16.8 13.6 3.9 3.1 26.0 25.4 2.5 2.1
Lupin Buy 759 877 33,984 11,641 13,933 21.3 21.3 34.8 41.8 21.8 18.2 5.1 4.0 26.2 24.8 3.0 2.4
Ranbaxy* Neutral 377 - 15,942 11,400 12,060 10.5 12.5 17.5 22.5 21.5 16.8 3.5 3.0 17.0 19.1 1.4 1.2
Sun Pharma Neutral 999 - 103,341 13,509 15,846 41.0 41.0 33.0 39.8 30.3 25.1 6.1 5.1 22.0 22.0 7.1 5.9
Power
GIPCL Accumulate 72 78 1,091 1,444 1,482 33.4 33.0 13.7 14.8 5.3 4.9 0.6 0.6 12.3 12.0 0.8 0.6
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Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS () PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)
( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E
Power
NTPC Accumulate 150 163 123,929 76,734 86,680 24.5 24.3 13.4 14.5 11.2 10.4 1.4 1.3 12.8 12.7 2.3 2.2
Real Estate
DLF Buy 196 236 34,910 8,293 9,622 36.5 36.1 5.7 6.7 34.4 29.1 1.2 1.2 3.7 4.1 6.3 5.3
MLIFE Buy 395 476 1,614 888 1,002 30.6 30.6 38.8 43.4 10.2 9.1 1.1 1.0 11.2 11.4 2.4 2.1
Telecom
Bharti Airtel Buy 284 338 107,850 86,592 95,860 31.4 31.8 10.9 14.5 26.1 19.5 2.0 1.8 7.7 9.3 1.9 1.6
Idea Cellular Neutral 129 - 42,883 25,122 27,663 27.0 27.2 4.0 4.8 32.6 27.2 2.7 2.5 8.3 9.1 2.1 1.9Rcom Neutral 111 - 22,911 22,801 24,628 31.0 31.3 3.6 5.3 31.2 21.1 0.7 0.7 2.2 3.1 2.6 2.3
Others
Abbott India* Accumulate 1,467 1,659 3,118 1,863 2,081 11.8 12.4 71.2 83.0 20.6 17.7 4.1 3.5 21.6 21.5 1.4 1.1
Bajaj Electricals Buy 171 237 1,702 3,885 4,472 5.4 7.2 11.0 19.7 15.6 8.6 2.1 1.8 13.5 20.3 0.4 0.4
Cera Sanitaryware Accumulate 522 562 661 630 795 14.4 13.6 42.8 51.1 12.2 10.2 2.9 2.3 26.6 25.2 1.0 0.8
Cravatex Buy 320 459 83 248 284 6.5 7.3 27.2 38.2 11.8 8.4 1.9 1.6 15.7 18.5 0.5 0.4
Finolex Cables Buy 52 68 801 2,563 2,899 9.8 9.8 10.1 11.3 5.2 4.6 0.7 0.6 14.3 13.8 0.2 0.2
Force Motors Buy 307 437 401 2,304 2,649 3.1 3.6 28.0 43.7 11.0 7.0 0.3 0.3 3.1 4.7 0.1 0.1
Goodyear India* Accumulate 321 345 740 1,458 1,542 8.3 9.0 32.3 37.0 9.9 8.7 1.8 1.6 19.5 19.3 0.3 0.3
Hitachi Buy 135 177 367 1,053 1,169 6.3 7.1 13.8 17.7 9.8 7.6 1.4 1.2 15.0 16.7 0.4 0.4
Honeywell Automation* Neutral 2,452 - 2,168 1,842 2,131 7.7 7.8 112.4 132.4 21.8 18.5 2.7 2.4 13.3 13.8 1.1 0.9
IFB Agro Buy 165 198 149 495 651 12.7 12.9 29.3 39.5 5.6 4.2 0.8 0.7 15.4 17.6 0.4 0.3
ITD Cementation Buy 164 234 188 1,430 1,573 11.1 11.0 19.1 26.9 8.6 6.1 0.5 0.4 4.9 6.3 0.5 0.5
Jyothy Laboratories Neutral 198 - 3,191 1,220 1,476 13.3 13.6 5.5 9.0 35.9 21.9 4.1 3.7 12.1 17.7 3.0 2.3
MRF Neutral 14,727 - 6,246 11,799 12,587 14.1 13.5 1,792.4 1,802.0 8.2 8.2 1.7 1.4 23.5 19.2 0.6 0.6
Page Industries Accumulate 4,083 4,611 4,554 1,057 1,282 19.4 19.6 124.8 153.7 32.7 26.6 16.2 12.0 56.3 51.8 4.4 3.6Relaxo Footwears Buy 665 791 798 1,146 1,333 10.9 11.4 45.9 60.9 14.5 10.9 3.0 2.4 23.0 24.6 0.9 0.7
Siyaram Silk Mills Buy 255 343 239 1,158 1,322 11.9 11.9 72.9 85.7 3.5 3.0 0.6 0.5 19.9 19.6 0.4 0.4
Styrolution ABS India* Buy 421 617 740 1,068 1,223 9.6 9.6 38.1 44.1 11.1 9.6 1.5 1.3 14.5 14.7 0.7 0.6
TAJ GVK Buy 61 108 379 300 319 35.8 36.2 7.9 9.1 7.7 6.7 1.0 0.9 13.9 14.4 1.6 1.3
Tata Sponge Iron Buy 286 371 440 814 849 17.0 17.6 64.6 69.2 4.4 4.1 0.6 0.5 14.5 13.8 0.1 -
TTK Healthcare Buy 519 686 403 435 516 6.2 7.1 24.3 33.3 21.4 15.6 3.5 3.0 17.6 20.8 0.8 0.6
Tree House Accumulate 275 297 990 153 194 53.0 52.8 12.4 15.6 22.2 17.6 2.6 2.3 11.8 13.1 6.7 5.1
TVS Srichakra Buy 191 252 146 1,591 1,739 6.1 6.6 24.5 41.9 7.8 4.6 0.8 0.7 10.9 17.2 0.3 0.3
United Spirits Neutral 2,494 - 36,250 12,294 14,162 12.0 12.0 42.1 67.7 59.3 36.8 4.2 3.8 9.1 10.7 3.3 2.8
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June 11, 2013
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7/28/2019 Market Outlook, 11-06-2013
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Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS () PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)
( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E
Others
Vesuvius India* Buy 363 439 738 600 638 20.1 19.4 35.7 36.6 10.2 10.0 1.8 1.6 19.4 17.1 1.0 0.9
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year end; #September year end; &October year end; Price as on June 10, 2013
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Market OutlookJune 11, 2013