Market Outlook, 06-06-2013

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    Market OutlookJune 6, 2013

    Dealers Diary

    The Indian markets are expected to open in the red following negative start to SGX

    Nifty and weak opening to major Asian Indices after US jobs and factory data

    missed estimates and as investors speculated whether the Federal Reserve will scale

    back bond purchases.The US markets ended in the red on Wednesday extending the previous session

    losses as traders digested key economic reports on private sector employment and

    activity in the services sector. According to the ADP report, private sector jobs

    increased by 135,000 in May following a downwardly revised increase of 113,000

    jobs in April. However, it was below the consensus expectations of 171,000 jobs. A

    separate report from the Institute for Supply Management showed that

    non-manufacturing index edged up to 53.7 in May from 53.1 in April. The Labor

    Department also released a report showing weaker than previously estimated

    productivity growth in the first quarter, while the Commerce Department reported a

    smaller than expected increase in factory orders in April. Further, according to

    Federal Reserve's Beige Book, economic activity increased at a modest to moderate

    pace across all the Fed districts except the Dallas district, which reported strongeconomic growth.

    Going ahead, economic data will continue to attract attention on Thursday, with

    the Labor Department scheduled to release its report on weekly jobless claims.

    Trading activity may be somewhat subdued, as traders may be reluctant to make

    any significant moves ahead of Friday's monthly jobs report.

    Markets Today

    The trend deciding level for the day is 19,538 / 5,914 levels. If NIFTY trades above

    this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally

    up to 19,635 19,701 / 5,945 5,966 levels. However, if NIFTY trades below

    19,538 / 5,914 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to19,472 19,375 / 5,893 5,863 levels.

    Indices S2 S1 PIVOT R1 R2SENSEX 19,375 19,472 19,538 19,635 19,701NIFTY 5,863 5,893 5,914 5,945 5,966

    News Analysis TCS bags four year contract from UK's Network Rail ONGC plans to sell partial stake in CBM L&T wins Aramco gas project in Saudi Arabia Zydus Cadila Healthcare - to launch Indias first NCE LIPAGLYN

    Refer detailed news analysis on the following page

    Net Inflows (June 4, 2013)` cr Purch Sales Net MTD YTDFII 2,552 2,286 265 680 82,517

    MFs 373 561 (188) (188) (12,265)

    FII Derivatives (June 5, 2013)` cr Purch Sales Net Open InterestIndex Futures 1,324 1,921 (597) 7,667

    Stock Futures 1,258 1,519 (261) 28,174

    Gainers / Losers

    Gainers LosersCompany Price (`) chg (%) Company Price (`) chg (%)Reliance Comm. 116 5.3 Jain Irrigation 66 (6.0)

    Oracle Fin. Services 2,761 5.0 Cadila Health 778 (4.4)

    Adani Power 59 4.2 JP Infratech 28 (4.0)

    Uco Bank 78 3.5 Satyam Computers 103 (3.1)

    Future Retail 142 3.3 GlaxoS. Pharma 2,675 (2.9)

    Domestic Indices Chg (%) (Pts) (Close)BSE Sensex 0.1 22 19,568

    Nifty 0.1 4 5,924

    MID CAP 0.1 4 6,417

    SMALL CAP 0.1 7 5,959

    BSE HC 0.3 25 9,002

    BSE PSU 0.3 22 6,627

    BANKEX 0.1 11 14,059

    AUTO 0.2 26 11,048

    METAL 0.4 34 8,535

    OIL & GAS 1.8 150 8,626

    BSE IT (0.8) (46) 6,053

    Global Indices Chg (%) (Pts) (Close)Dow Jones (1.4) (217) 14,961NASDAQ (1.3) (44) 3,401

    FTSE (2.1) (139) 6,419

    Nikkei (3.8) (519) 13,015

    Hang Sang (1.0) (216) 22,069

    Straits Times (1.5) (48) 3,243

    Shanghai Com (0.0) (1) 2,271

    Indian ADR Chg (%) (Pts) (Close)INFY (2.4) (1.0) $42.7

    WIT (1.7) (0.1) $7.5IBN (1.7) (0.7) $43.2

    HDB (0.9) (0.3) $39.1

    Advances / Declines BSE NSEAdvances 1,083 652

    Declines 1,256 686

    Unchanged 149 86

    Volumes (` cr)BSE 1,720

    NSE 9,186

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    Market OutlookJune 6, 2013

    TCS bags four year contract from UK's Network Rail

    TCS has bagged a four year deal from UK's Network Rail Infrastructure Ltd. to

    provide a wide range of software and system integration services. The IT solutions

    and system integration framework agreement encompasses identifying, defining,

    designing, building and integration of next generation IT solutions for NetworkRail. Though the company did not disclose financial details, as per media reports

    the deal size is worth over US$535mn. Through this transformational initiative,

    Network Rail is implementing a structured multi-sourcing model to invest in a

    customer-centric IT strategy to deliver greater efficiency, effectiveness and

    innovation across the organization. TCS will be a key enabler in helping Network

    Rail to achieve its objective of generating an outstanding value for taxpayers and

    users by continually improving the railway. We maintain our Accumulate rating onthe stock with a target price of `1,585.

    ONGC plans to sell partial stake in CBM

    ONGC is planning to sell 10-25% stake in its four coal-bed methane (CBM) blocks

    to Brisbane-based Dart Energy Ltd in order to expedite production. Dart Energy is

    likely to bring advanced technology and technical know-how which could help

    ONGC to expedite production in our view. We await clarity on the price of the

    deal, timelines etc. Until then we maintain our estimates and Buy rating on thestock with a target price of `372.

    L&T wins Aramco gas project in Saudi Arabia

    Larsen and Toubros (L&T) subsidiary has secured a large engineering,

    procurement and construction contract from Saudi Arabian Oil Co. (Saudi

    Aramco). The project involves setting up gas processing facilities, for the Midyan

    gas facilities with a capacity to treat 75 million standard cubic feet per day of gas

    and 4,500 barrels per day of condensate and laying of gas and condensate

    product pipelines. The project has a schedule to be completed within 37 months.

    We continue to maintain our Buy rating on the stock with a Target price of `1,761.

    Zydus Cadila Healthcare - to launch Indias first NCELIPAGLYN

    Cadila Healthcare launched the first NCE molecule in India, which is the worlds

    first drug for treating diabetic dyslipidemia and combines lipid and glucose

    lowering effects in one single molecule. The Drug has been approved by the Drug

    Controller General of India (DCGI) and is expected to be launched in India by the

    end of the 2QFY2014, and hence the full impact will be visible in 2HFY2014.

    As regards the global markets, the company has decided to look to partner with a

    global player to contact the clinical trials for the product. The IND for the product

    was submitted in 2004.

    Globally, there are estimated to be around 35cr people suffering from the

    diabetics, out of which 85% of which are suffering from diabetic dyslipidemia, thus

    targeting around 30cr population. In India, almost around 6.5cr people suffer

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    Market OutlookJune 6, 2013

    from diabetics and around 5.2cr suffer from diabetic dyslipidemia. In terms of

    capex, the company has indicated that the company doesnt not have to invest for

    the same. While the comparable market size is not there, as the molecule is first in

    class, the product can add significantly to companys numbers.

    As per reports, Management has said to have indicated that it needs to spendanother US $150mn-US $200mn to launch the drug outside India. The company

    expects this to be a blockbuster drug, which means over US $1bn sales a year

    globally. In India, the company expects to achieve sales of around Rs100cr in next

    three years. We expect the full impact of the drug to be visible in FY2015. On a

    conservative basis the company can add `30-50cr in FY2015 on the sales front.

    We maintain a buy with a price target of `929.

    Economic and Political News

    RBI deputy says WPI not the only variable for monetary policy CCEA may take up coal price-pooling yet again on June 7 India's Services Business Activity Index rose to 53.6 points in May

    Corporate News

    Airtel gets shareholders nod for 5% stake sale for `6,796cr GIPCL appoints Lanco to set up 600 MW lignite power plant Mahindra and Mahindra launches small car Verito Vibe HDIL to sell land in Kochi to mobilize funds

    Source: Economic Times, Business Standard, Business Line, Financial Express, Mint

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    Global economic events release calendar

    Date Time Country Event Description Unit Period Bloomberg Data

    Last Reported Estimated

    June 6, 2013 6:00PM US Initial Jobless claims Thousands Jun 1 354.00 345.00

    4:30PM UK BOE Announces rates % Ratio Jun 6 0.50 0.50

    5:15PM Euro Zone ECB announces interest rates % Jun 6 0.50 0.50

    June 7, 2013 6:00PM US Change in Nonfarm payrolls Thousands May 165.00 165.00

    6:00PM US Unnemployment rate % May 7.50 7.50

    June 8, 2013 4:29PM China Exports YoY% % Change May 14.70 6.50

    June 9, 2013 7:00AM China Consumer Price Index (YoY) % Change May 2.40 2.50

    11:00AM China Industrial Production (YoY) % Change May 9.30 9.20

    June 10, 2013 4:29PM India Imports YoY% % Change May 10.96 --

    4:29PM India Exports YoY% % Change May 1.68 --

    June 11, 2013 2:00PM UK Industrial Production (YoY) % Change Apr (1.40) --

    June 12, 2013 2:00PM UK Jobless claims change % Change May (7.30) --

    11:00AM India Industrial Production YoY % Change Apr 2.50 --

    June 14, 2013 2:30PM Euro Zone Euro-Zone CPI (YoY) % May F 1.20 --

    6:00PM US Producer Price Index (mom) % Change May (0.70) 0.10

    6:45PM US Industrial Production % May (0.53) 0.30

    12:00PM India Monthly Wholesale Prices YoY% % Change May 4.89 --

    June 17, 2013 11:00AM India RBI Repo rate % Jun 17 7.25 --

    11:00AM India RBI Cash Reserve ratio % Jun 17 4.00 --

    11:00AM India RBI Reverse Repo rate % Jun 17 6.25 --

    June 18, 2013 2:00PM UK CPI (YoY) % Change May 2.40 --

    6:00PM US Housing Starts Thousands May 853.00 --

    6:00PM US Building permits Thousands May 1,005.00 --

    6:00PM US Consumer price index (mom) % Change May (0.40) --June 19, 2013 11:30PM US FOMC rate decision % Jun 19 0.25 --

    June 20, 2013 7:30PM Euro Zone Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence Value Jun A (21.90) --

    7:30PM US Existing home sales Million May 4.97 --

    June 25, 2013 7:30PM US Consumer Confidence S.A./ 1985=100 Jun 76.20 --

    7:30PM US New home sales Thousands May 454.00 --

    June 26, 2013 6:00PM US GDP Qoq (Annualised) % Change 1Q T 2.40 --

    June 27, 2013 1:25PM Germany Unemployment change (000's) Thousands Jun 21.00 --

    2:00PM UK GDP (YoY) % Change 1Q F 0.60 --

    July 1, 2013 6:30AM China PMI Manufacturing Value Jun 50.80 --

    July 15, 2013 7:30AM China Real GDP (YoY) % Change 2Q 7.70 --

    August 14, 2013 11:30AM Germany GDP nsa (YoY) % Change 2Q P (1.40) --

    Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

    June 06, 2013

    Market Outlook

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    Market OutlookJune 06, 2013

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    Macro watch

    Exhibit 1:Q uarterly G D P trends

    Source: CSO, Angel Research

    Exhibit 2:IIP trends

    Source: MOSPI, Angel Research

    Exhibit 3:M onthly WPI inflation trends

    Source: MOSPI, Angel Research

    Exhibit 4:M a nufacturing a nd services PM I

    Source: Ma rket, Angel Research; N ote: Level above 50 ind icates expansion

    Exhibit 5:Expo rts an d impo rts growth trends

    Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

    Exhibit 6:Key policy rates

    Source: RBI, Angel Research

    9.3

    7.7

    11.4

    9.5

    8.69.2

    9.9

    7.5

    6.56.0

    5.1 5.4 5.24.7 4.8

    3.0

    4.0

    5.0

    6.0

    7.0

    8.0

    9.0

    10.0

    11.0

    12.0

    2QFY10

    3QFY10

    4QFY10

    1QFY11

    2QFY11

    3QFY11

    4QFY11

    1QFY12

    2QFY12

    3QFY12

    4QFY12

    1QFY13

    2QFY13

    3QFY13

    4QFY13

    (%)

    (1.3)

    2.5

    (2.0)

    (0.1)

    2.0

    (0.7)

    8.4

    (1.0) (0.6)

    2.4

    0.5

    2.5

    (4.0)

    (2.0)

    -

    2.0

    4.0

    6.0

    8.0

    10.0

    Apr-12

    May-1

    2

    Jun-1

    2

    Jul-12

    Aug-1

    2

    Sep-1

    2

    Oc-1

    2

    No-1

    2

    Dec-1

    2

    Jan-1

    3

    Feb

    -13

    Mar-13

    (%)

    7.6 7.58.0 8.1

    7.3 7.2 7.3 7.3 7.3

    6.0

    4.9

    0.0

    1.0

    2.0

    3.0

    4.0

    5.0

    6.0

    7.0

    8.0

    9.0

    Jun-1

    2

    Jul-12

    Aug-1

    2

    Sep-1

    2

    Oc-1

    2

    No-1

    2

    Dec-1

    2

    Jan-1

    3

    Feb

    -13

    Mar-13

    Apr-13

    (%)

    48.0

    50.0

    52.0

    54.0

    56.0

    58.0

    Mar-12

    Apr-12

    May-1

    2

    Jun-1

    2

    Jul-12

    Aug-1

    2

    Sep-1

    2

    Oc-1

    2

    Nov-1

    2

    Dec-1

    2

    Jan-1

    3

    Feb

    -13

    Mar-13

    Apr-13

    May-1

    3

    Mfg. PMI Services PMI

    (15.0)

    0.0

    15.0

    May-1

    2

    Jun-1

    2

    Jul-12

    Aug-1

    2

    Sep-1

    2

    Oc-1

    2

    No-1

    2

    Dec-1

    2

    Jan-1

    3

    Feb

    -13

    Mar-13

    Apr-13

    Exports yoy growth Imports yoy growth(%)

    7.25

    6.25

    4.003.00

    4.00

    5.00

    6.00

    7.00

    8.00

    9.00

    Jun-1

    2

    Jul-12

    Aug-1

    2

    Sep-1

    2

    Oc-1

    2

    No-1

    2

    Dec-1

    2

    Jan-1

    3

    Feb

    -13

    Mar-13

    Apr-13

    Ma-1

    3

    Repo rate Reverse Repo rate CRR(%)

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    Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS () PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)

    ( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E

    Agri / Agri Chemical

    Rallis Neutral 129 - 2,505 1,657 1,906 14.1 14.1 7.7 8.9 16.7 14.5 3.5 3.0 22.2 21.9 1.4 1.2

    United Phosphorus Buy 166 232 7,325 10,298 11,310 16.5 16.5 20.5 23.2 8.1 7.1 1.4 1.2 18.0 17.4 0.6 0.5

    Auto & Auto Ancillary

    Amara Raja Batteries Accumulate 255 285 4,357 3,418 3,892 14.5 14.5 18.5 20.4 13.8 12.5 3.3 2.7 26.6 23.8 1.3 1.1

    Apollo Tyres Accumulate 91 104 4,599 13,852 15,487 11.4 11.5 12.8 14.9 7.1 6.1 1.2 1.0 17.5 17.3 0.5 0.4

    Ashok Leyland Accumulate 24 27 6,346 14,038 16,442 7.6 8.7 1.1 2.2 22.8 10.7 2.0 1.7 6.2 12.5 0.5 0.4

    Automotive Axle# Neutral 232 - 351 834 965 9.3 10.6 17.3 27.1 13.4 8.6 1.3 1.2 9.5 14.0 0.5 0.4Bajaj Auto Buy 1,761 2,056 50,943 22,684 25,908 18.0 18.5 117.3 137.1 15.0 12.8 5.4 4.3 39.9 37.2 1.9 1.5

    Bharat Forge Neutral 237 - 5,506 6,198 6,793 14.6 14.9 14.5 17.3 16.3 13.7 2.1 1.9 13.6 14.7 1.0 0.9

    Bosch India* Neutral 9,074 - 28,490 9,821 11,394 17.0 17.3 373.5 438.7 24.3 20.7 4.4 3.7 18.0 17.9 2.6 2.2

    CEAT Buy 110 170 375 5,325 5,974 8.4 8.3 40.8 48.5 2.7 2.3 0.4 0.4 17.3 17.6 0.2 0.2

    Exide Industries Accumulate 140 150 11,917 7,053 8,061 14.2 14.5 7.8 9.1 17.9 15.4 3.0 2.6 18.1 18.2 1.4 1.2

    FAG Bearings* Neutral 1,445 - 2,401 1,525 1,742 14.5 15.7 88.4 109.5 16.3 13.2 2.4 2.0 15.5 16.5 1.4 1.2

    Hero Motocorp Accumulate 1,664 1,819 33,228 25,274 27,658 14.1 13.7 110.2 139.9 15.1 11.9 5.5 4.3 39.8 40.7 1.1 1.0

    JK Tyre Buy 118 154 483 7,972 8,754 7.1 7.1 37.5 44.0 3.1 2.7 0.5 0.4 16.4 16.6 0.3 0.3

    Mahindra and MahindraAccumulate 987 1,090 60,594 45,254 51,197 11.4 11.7 61.2 70.2 16.1 14.1 3.4 2.8 22.7 21.9 1.1 0.9

    Maruti Buy 1,569 1,847 47,384 48,455 55,723 11.2 10.9 107.8 123.2 14.5 12.7 2.2 1.9 16.2 16.0 0.8 0.7

    Motherson Sumi Accumulate 207 222 12,189 28,442 31,493 7.5 7.8 12.5 14.8 16.6 14.0 4.1 3.3 27.5 25.8 0.6 0.5

    Subros Buy 24 30 142 1,479 1,685 10.0 9.9 5.5 7.5 4.3 3.2 0.5 0.4 11.1 13.7 0.4 0.3

    Tata Motors Accumulate 307 347 82,234 215,016 237,404 13.3 13.6 36.2 41.5 8.5 7.4 1.9 1.6 24.6 23.2 0.5 0.4

    TVS Motor Neutral 36 - 1,706 7,715 8,584 6.0 6.1 5.0 5.8 7.2 6.2 1.2 1.1 18.1 18.5 0.2 0.1

    Capital Goods

    ABB* Sell 643 461 13,615 8,073 9,052 5.5 6.9 11.5 16.9 55.8 37.9 5.1 4.9 9.3 13.1 1.7 1.4BGR Energy Neutral 165 - 1,192 4,114 4,886 11.4 10.7 24.9 28.0 6.6 5.9 0.9 0.8 25.2 22.6 0.6 0.6

    BHEL Neutral 194 - 47,594 44,054 39,326 16.8 15.1 20.6 16.1 9.4 12.1 2.1 1.9 23.5 16.1 1.0 1.0

    Blue Star Buy 167 230 1,500 2,896 3,087 5.6 6.2 9.3 11.7 17.9 14.2 3.0 2.5 17.6 19.2 0.6 0.5

    Crompton Greaves Buy 90 117 5,783 13,446 15,272 6.7 7.6 6.6 8.9 13.6 10.2 1.5 1.4 11.4 14.0 0.5 0.5

    Jyoti Structures Neutral 27 - 221 3,360 3,597 9.7 9.8 7.3 10.2 3.7 2.6 0.8 0.7 8.8 11.4 0.3 0.3

    KEC International Buy 39 63 1,013 7,709 8,399 6.7 7.2 6.1 8.5 6.5 4.6 0.8 0.7 20.2 23.0 0.3 0.3

    Thermax Neutral 579 - 6,903 5,780 6,430 9.5 9.6 29.8 33.0 19.4 17.6 3.3 2.9 17.9 17.4 1.0 0.9

    Cement

    ACC Accumulate 1,203 1,361 22,593 11,979 13,254 19.7 21.3 77.1 91.4 15.6 13.2 2.8 2.5 18.7 20.0 1.6 1.4

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    Stock Watch

    June 06, 2013

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    Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS () PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)

    ( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E

    Cement

    Ambuja Cements Neutral 172 - 26,464 10,232 11,762 23.5 24.5 10.3 12.2 16.7 14.1 2.8 2.5 17.2 18.6 2.1 1.7

    India Cements Neutral 65 - 2,009 4,929 5,434 17.4 17.1 8.9 10.9 7.4 6.0 0.6 0.5 7.7 9.1 0.8 0.7

    J K Lakshmi Cement Buy 102 143 1,204 2,247 2,742 21.0 23.1 17.8 21.8 5.7 4.7 0.8 0.7 15.5 16.4 0.4 0.9

    Madras Cements Neutral 230 - 5,479 4,234 4,788 23.9 24.0 18.5 22.8 12.5 10.1 2.0 1.7 17.2 18.2 1.7 1.3

    Shree Cement^ Neutral 4,705 - 16,390 6,540 7,452 27.4 26.6 319.7 369.9 14.7 12.7 3.6 2.9 27.5 25.4 1.9 1.4

    UltraTech Cement Neutral 1,851 - 50,743 21,947 25,049 23.8 23.8 106.1 119.8 17.5 15.5 2.9 2.5 17.7 17.3 2.4 2.1

    ConstructionAshoka Buildcon Buy 200 255 1,053 1,928 2,234 21.0 21.5 18.0 22.2 11.1 9.0 1.0 0.9 10.2 10.1 1.9 1.9

    Consolidated Co Neutral 11 - 207 2,281 2,492 5.9 6.9 0.7 2.0 16.5 5.6 0.4 0.4 2.3 6.5 0.4 0.3

    IRB Infra Buy 116 157 3,862 3,997 4,312 45.5 46.4 15.7 16.6 7.4 7.0 1.1 1.0 15.2 14.5 3.4 3.6

    ITNL Buy 175 230 3,393 7,444 8,041 27.4 28.9 29.8 32.1 5.9 5.5 0.8 0.7 14.9 14.2 2.6 2.6

    IVRCL Infra Buy 19 35 578 6,287 6,836 8.5 8.5 2.3 3.0 8.0 6.2 0.3 0.3 3.4 4.2 0.5 0.5

    Jaiprakash Asso. Buy 67 90 14,868 14,850 15,631 24.9 25.1 2.5 2.9 26.5 23.5 1.1 1.0 4.2 4.7 2.8 2.8

    Larsen & Toubro Buy 1,420 1,761 87,473 68,946 78,040 10.5 10.5 77.9 88.3 18.2 16.1 2.7 2.4 15.5 15.6 1.4 1.2

    Nagarjuna Const. Buy 30 42 781 6,167 6,945 8.0 8.2 2.7 3.6 11.4 8.4 0.3 0.3 2.7 3.6 0.5 0.5

    Punj Lloyd Neutral 45 - 1,493 12,954 14,740 9.9 9.9 0.5 0.9 88.6 48.2 0.5 0.5 0.6 1.1 0.5 0.5

    Sadbhav Engg. Buy 107 139 1,611 2,462 2,731 10.6 10.6 5.9 6.7 18.1 16.0 1.8 1.6 10.2 10.5 0.9 0.9

    Simplex Infra Buy 99 131 492 6,308 7,033 9.5 9.6 11.9 18.7 8.4 5.3 0.4 0.4 4.5 6.7 0.5 0.5

    Unity Infra Buy 29 41 216 2,146 2,339 13.7 13.8 11.0 11.5 2.7 2.5 0.2 0.2 9.3 9.0 0.6 0.6

    Financials

    Allahabad Bank Buy 123 144 6,170 6,876 7,545 2.6 2.5 28.2 30.9 4.4 4.0 0.6 0.6 12.8 12.7 - -

    Andhra Bank Neutral 88 - 4,930 5,254 5,900 2.8 2.8 21.2 22.9 4.2 3.9 0.6 0.5 13.3 13.0 - -

    Axis Bank Buy 1,385 1,853 64,893 19,055 22,710 3.3 3.2 130.7 152.3 10.6 9.1 1.7 1.5 17.2 17.6 - -Bank of Baroda Buy 660 851 27,822 16,365 18,781 2.2 2.3 121.3 142.5 5.5 4.6 0.8 0.7 15.1 15.7 - -

    Bank of India Buy 290 350 17,299 14,482 16,383 2.3 2.3 58.1 68.1 5.0 4.3 0.7 0.6 14.4 15.0 - -

    Bank of Maharashtra Buy 53 64 3,536 4,392 4,743 3.1 3.0 12.6 13.7 4.2 3.9 0.7 0.6 16.8 16.0 - -

    Canara Bank Buy 400 481 17,729 11,928 13,467 2.1 2.2 74.8 86.0 5.4 4.7 0.8 0.7 13.7 14.2 - -

    Central Bank Accumulate 65 69 6,774 8,249 9,211 2.4 2.5 14.9 18.2 4.4 3.6 0.6 0.6 12.5 13.8 - -

    Corporation Bank Buy 382 495 5,844 5,558 6,121 2.0 2.0 98.4 107.7 3.9 3.6 0.6 0.5 14.9 14.5 - -

    Dena Bank Buy 84 97 2,951 3,187 3,582 2.3 2.4 23.8 25.5 3.5 3.3 0.6 0.5 15.9 15.1 - -

    Federal Bank Neutral 458 - 7,830 2,873 3,413 3.0 3.1 52.7 62.0 8.7 7.4 1.1 1.0 13.4 14.2 - -

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    Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS () PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)

    ( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E

    Financials

    HDFC Accumulate 844 933 130,800 8,573 10,142 3.6 3.6 37.0 43.6 22.8 19.4 4.7 4.2 30.0 30.3 - -

    HDFC Bank Neutral 688 - 164,104 27,682 33,916 4.6 4.6 35.3 42.7 19.5 16.1 3.8 3.2 21.3 21.8 - -

    ICICI Bank Buy 1,134 1,503 130,904 25,705 30,330 3.1 3.2 83.9 96.3 13.5 11.8 1.8 1.6 15.2 15.7 - -

    IDBI Bank Buy 79 93 10,469 9,477 10,678 2.0 2.1 19.6 22.6 4.0 3.5 0.5 0.4 12.8 13.4 - -

    Indian Bank Buy 141 185 6,045 6,185 6,978 3.0 3.0 37.0 42.2 3.8 3.3 0.6 0.5 14.8 15.1 - -

    IOB Accumulate 60 66 5,526 8,142 8,956 2.5 2.5 16.5 20.7 3.6 2.9 0.4 0.4 11.8 13.4 - -

    J & K Bank Accumulate 1,251 1,315 6,065 3,074 3,140 3.5 3.2 224.7 201.5 5.6 6.2 1.1 1.0 20.6 16.1 - -LIC Housing Finance Accumulate 267 298 13,487 2,113 2,525 2.3 2.3 25.4 29.2 10.5 9.2 1.9 1.6 18.4 18.3 - -

    Oriental Bank Accumulate 248 285 7,240 6,835 7,588 2.6 2.6 56.5 63.8 4.4 3.9 0.6 0.5 13.1 13.4 - -

    Punjab Natl.Bank Buy 764 994 27,004 20,876 23,929 3.3 3.4 151.7 177.0 5.0 4.3 0.8 0.7 16.1 16.5 - -

    South Ind.Bank Neutral 25 - 3,351 1,839 2,091 2.9 2.8 4.2 4.5 6.0 5.6 1.0 0.9 18.2 17.0 - -

    St Bk of India Buy 2,032 2,637 138,968 67,243 76,612 3.1 3.0 242.4 284.8 8.4 7.1 1.3 1.1 16.3 16.8 - -

    Syndicate Bank Accumulate 131 142 7,861 7,238 8,249 2.7 2.6 27.1 30.4 4.8 4.3 0.7 0.6 16.1 15.9 - -

    UCO Bank Neutral 78 - 5,874 6,250 6,738 2.6 2.5 12.1 14.7 6.5 5.3 1.0 0.8 11.8 13.0 - -

    Union Bank Buy 216 260 12,909 11,229 12,794 2.6 2.6 40.7 48.2 5.3 4.5 0.8 0.7 14.6 15.4 - -

    United Bank Buy 54 65 2,022 3,443 3,998 2.4 2.6 15.1 20.4 3.6 2.6 0.5 0.4 12.1 14.8 - -

    Vijaya Bank Neutral 51 - 2,532 2,730 3,059 1.9 2.0 10.2 11.3 5.0 4.5 0.6 0.5 11.8 12.0 - -

    Yes Bank Neutral 500 - 17,970 4,390 5,411 2.8 2.8 41.6 47.9 12.0 10.5 2.5 2.1 23.2 22.1 - -

    FMCG

    Asian Paints Neutral 4,677 - 44,863 12,332 14,524 16.5 16.3 141.6 162.7 33.0 28.8 10.5 8.3 35.4 32.2 3.5 2.9

    Britannia Neutral 665 - 7,952 6,417 7,502 6.1 6.3 23.2 27.9 28.7 23.8 9.9 7.7 38.3 36.4 1.2 1.0

    Colgate Neutral 1,474 - 20,049 3,588 4,130 20.5 20.9 44.2 51.8 33.4 28.5 32.5 23.7 108.6 96.2 5.4 4.7

    Dabur India Neutral 158 - 27,530 7,183 8,340 16.8 16.8 5.4 6.3 29.4 25.1 11.5 8.9 41.5 40.1 3.8 3.2

    GlaxoSmith Con* Neutral 5,830 - 24,518 3,617 4,259 16.1 16.4 122.2 148.7 47.7 39.2 14.8 11.9 34.1 33.7 6.3 5.3

    Godrej Consumer Neutral 885 - 30,121 7,801 9,017 16.2 15.9 25.1 29.7 35.2 29.8 7.6 6.3 24.9 24.2 4.0 3.4

    HUL Neutral 590 - 127,651 29,167 33,164 13.6 13.7 17.1 18.4 34.6 32.1 33.2 24.1 113.4 87.0 4.2 3.7

    ITC Neutral 334 - 264,158 34,294 39,991 36.8 37.0 11.3 13.3 29.7 25.1 9.8 7.9 36.1 34.9 7.4 6.3

    Marico Neutral 234 - 15,066 5,273 6,044 14.8 14.9 7.3 8.7 32.2 27.0 6.3 5.2 21.4 21.0 2.9 2.4

    Nestle* Neutral 5,284 - 50,945 9,447 10,968 22.1 22.3 127.5 154.1 41.5 34.3 20.7 15.0 57.7 50.7 5.4 4.5

    Tata Global Neutral 150 - 9,288 8,069 8,957 9.8 9.7 7.8 8.6 19.2 17.5 2.3 2.2 9.5 9.7 1.1 1.0

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    Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS () PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)

    ( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E

    Power

    NTPC Accumulate 154 163 127,021 76,734 86,680 24.5 24.3 13.4 14.5 11.5 10.6 1.4 1.3 12.8 12.7 2.4 2.2

    Real Estate

    DLF Buy 199 288 35,417 9,699 12,010 37.0 36.9 6.0 8.4 33.3 23.7 1.2 1.2 3.8 5.1 5.1 4.2

    MLIFE Buy 389 476 1,588 888 1,002 30.6 30.6 38.8 43.4 10.0 9.0 1.1 1.0 11.2 11.4 2.4 2.1

    Telecom

    Bharti Airtel Accumulate 302 338 114,685 86,592 95,860 31.4 31.8 10.9 14.5 27.7 20.8 2.1 1.9 7.7 9.3 2.0 1.7

    Idea Cellular Neutral 136 - 45,104 25,122 27,663 27.0 27.2 4.0 4.8 34.3 28.6 2.9 2.6 8.3 9.1 2.2 2.0Rcom Neutral 116 - 24,015 22,801 24,628 31.0 31.3 3.6 5.3 32.7 22.1 0.7 0.7 2.2 3.1 2.6 2.3

    Others

    Abbott India* Accumulate 1,462 1,659 3,106 1,863 2,081 11.8 12.4 71.2 83.0 20.5 17.6 4.1 3.5 21.6 21.5 1.4 1.1

    Bajaj Electricals Buy 168 237 1,675 3,885 4,472 5.4 7.2 11.0 19.7 15.3 8.5 2.1 1.7 13.5 20.3 0.4 0.4

    Cera Sanitaryware Accumulate 531 562 672 630 795 14.4 13.6 42.8 51.1 12.4 10.4 3.0 2.4 26.6 25.2 1.1 0.8

    Cravatex Buy 334 459 86 248 284 6.5 7.3 27.2 38.2 12.3 8.8 1.9 1.6 15.7 18.5 0.5 0.5

    Finolex Cables Buy 52 68 801 2,563 2,899 9.8 9.8 10.1 11.3 5.2 4.6 0.7 0.6 14.3 13.8 0.2 0.2

    Force Motors Buy 331 437 431 2,304 2,649 3.1 3.6 28.0 43.7 11.8 7.6 0.4 0.4 3.1 4.7 0.1 0.1

    Goodyear India* Neutral 346 - 798 1,458 1,542 8.3 9.0 32.3 37.0 10.7 9.3 2.0 1.7 19.5 19.3 0.4 0.3

    Hitachi Buy 143 177 389 1,053 1,169 6.3 7.1 13.8 17.7 10.4 8.1 1.5 1.3 15.0 16.7 0.4 0.4

    Honeywell Automation* Neutral 2,408 - 2,129 1,842 2,131 7.7 7.8 112.4 132.4 21.4 18.2 2.7 2.4 13.3 13.8 1.1 0.9

    IFB Agro Buy 156 198 141 495 651 12.7 12.9 29.3 39.5 5.3 4.0 0.8 0.6 15.4 17.6 0.4 0.3

    ITD Cementation Buy 175 234 201 1,430 1,573 11.1 11.0 19.1 26.9 9.2 6.5 0.5 0.5 4.9 6.3 0.6 0.5

    Jyothy Laboratories Neutral 204 - 3,295 1,220 1,476 13.3 13.6 5.5 9.0 37.1 22.6 4.3 3.8 12.1 17.7 3.0 2.4

    MRF Reduce 15,263 14,416 6,473 11,799 12,587 14.1 13.5 1,792.4 1,802.0 8.5 8.5 1.8 1.5 23.5 19.2 0.6 0.6

    Page Industries Accumulate 4,122 4,611 4,598 1,057 1,282 19.4 19.6 124.8 153.7 33.0 26.8 16.4 12.1 56.3 51.8 4.4 3.7Relaxo Footwears Buy 673 791 808 1,146 1,333 10.9 11.4 45.9 60.9 14.7 11.1 3.1 2.4 23.0 24.6 0.9 0.7

    Siyaram Silk Mills Buy 262 343 246 1,158 1,322 11.9 11.9 72.9 85.7 3.6 3.1 0.7 0.6 19.9 19.6 0.4 0.4

    Styrolution ABS India* Buy 433 617 761 1,068 1,223 9.6 9.6 38.1 44.1 11.4 9.8 1.5 1.4 14.5 14.7 0.7 0.6

    TAJ GVK Buy 61 108 382 300 319 35.8 36.2 7.9 9.1 7.7 6.7 1.0 0.9 13.9 14.4 1.6 1.3

    Tata Sponge Iron Buy 283 371 436 814 849 17.0 17.6 64.6 69.2 4.4 4.1 0.6 0.5 14.5 13.8 0.1 -

    TTK Healthcare Buy 539 686 418 435 516 6.2 7.1 24.3 33.3 22.2 16.2 3.7 3.1 17.6 20.8 0.8 0.7

    Tree House Accumulate 267 297 960 153 194 53.0 52.8 12.4 15.6 21.6 17.1 2.5 2.2 11.8 13.1 6.5 4.9

    TVS Srichakra Buy 186 252 142 1,591 1,739 6.1 6.6 24.5 41.9 7.6 4.4 0.8 0.7 10.9 17.2 0.3 0.3

    United Spirits Neutral 2,511 - 36,487 12,294 14,162 12.0 12.0 42.1 67.7 59.6 37.1 4.2 3.8 9.1 10.7 3.3 2.8

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    Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS () PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)

    ( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E

    Others

    Vesuvius India* Buy 368 439 747 600 638 20.1 19.4 35.7 36.6 10.3 10.1 1.9 1.6 19.4 17.1 1.0 0.9

    Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year end; #September year end; &October year end; Price as on June 05, 2013

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    Market OutlookJune 06, 2013