Market Outlook, 25-06-2013

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    Market OutlookJune 25, 2013

    HUL open offer by Unilever Plc Subscribe

    HULs promoter Unilever PLC is making a voluntary open offer to buy a 22.52%

    stake in the company, which would take its stake in HUL to 75%. The open offer

    has been priced at `600/share. The US$5.4bn (approx) voluntary open offer

    began on June 20

    th

    2013 and is scheduled to close on July 4

    th

    2013. The offerprice (at 35x of FY2014E EPS) is attractive considering the near-term growth

    challenges faced by the company reflected in the form of low single digit volume

    growth. The stock has rallied considerably post the open offer announcement on

    April 30th 2013. However, we expect the stock price to be driven by the

    fundamentals going ahead and expect contraction in the valuation multiple. Thus,we recommend an subscribe to the open offer.Reports of USFDA inspection at Ranbaxy labs Mohali plant

    According to the reports, the US Food and Drugs Administration (USFDA) had

    raised concerns about RanbaxyLaboratories' Mohali unit. The USFDA had

    reportedly issued a Form 483 to the Mohali facility a few months ago. A Form 483

    is issued by the FDA at the conclusion of an inspection to notify the company of

    objectionable conditions that might be in violation of the US Food, Drug and

    Cosmetic Act and related laws. However, it does not prevent a company from

    making regulatory filings from that unit. Though not confirmed by the company, it

    indicated that it continues to make regulatory submissions from Mohali and will

    commercialize products from Mohali when it get approvals. While the concerns onthe business profitability and now legal hassles are increasing for the company, webelieve that after the significant dip in the stock price the worst is discounted in thestock and even on a worst case scenario, where if we take a further dip in the USbusiness of the company and according a EV/Sales of 1.5x, a discount of around60% to its peers, the stock offers a upside of around 18%, hence we recommend abuy with a price target of Rs384.Indraprastha Gas raises price of CNG by`2/kg

    Indraprastha Gas Ltd (IGL) has raised the price of the CNG by `2/kg due to

    weaker rupee which has made its imports costlier. The new consumer price of

    CNG will be `41.9/kg in Delhi and `47.4/kg in Noida, Greater Noida and

    Ghaziabad. As all of IGL's gas sources are dollar-linked, the entire input price is

    totally dependent on price of dollar vs rupee. The hike is done to compensate for

    the falling rupee and will not have much impact on its realizations and profitability

    and hence we maintain our Neutral view on the stock.Economic and Political News

    Govt, RBI doing whatever needed to get "hold over" economy : RBI

    Sebi may announce new norms for angel investors

    RBI reverses forex relaxation for SEZs

    Assocham against relaxing iron ore export restrictions

    Corporate News

    Edelweiss to seek licence from RBI to set up bank

    Madison Media bags Raymond media business

    Tata Steel may sell stake in group cos to Tata Sons Orchid Pharma referred to CDR cell

    Govt allows Parsvnath to surrender IT SEZ in HaryanaSource: Economic Times, Business Standard, Business Line, Financial Express, Mint

    http://www.business-standard.com/search?type=news&q=Ranbaxyhttp://www.business-standard.com/search?type=news&q=Ranbaxy
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    Global economic events release calendar

    Date Time Country Event Description Unit Period Bloomberg Data

    Last Reported Estimated

    June 25, 2013 7:30PM US Consumer Confidence S.A./ 1985=100 Jun 76.20 75.00

    7:30PM US New home sales Thousands May 454.00 460.00

    June 26, 2013 6:00PM US GDP Qoq (Annualised) % Change 1Q T 2.40 2.40

    June 27, 2013 6:00PM US Initial Jobless claims Thousands Jun 22 354.00 345.00

    2:30PM Euro Zone Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence Value Jun F (18.80) (18.80)

    1:25PM Germany Unemployment change (000's) Thousands Jun 21.00 8.00

    2:00PM UK GDP (YoY) % Change 1Q F 0.60 0.60

    July 1, 2013 1:25PM Germany PMI Manufacturing Value Jun F 48.70 --

    6:30AM China PMI Manufacturing Value Jun 50.80 50.10

    2:00PM UK PMI Manufacturing Value Jun 51.30 --

    July 3, 2013 1:25PM Germany PMI Services Value Jun F 51.30 --

    July 4, 2013 4:30PM UK BOE Announces rates % Ratio Jul 4 0.50 0.50

    5:15PM Euro Zone ECB announces interest rates % Jul 4 0.50 --

    July 5, 2013 6:00PM US Change in Nonfarm payrolls Thousands Jun 175.00 165.00

    6:00PM US Unnemployment rate % Jun 7.60 7.50

    July 9, 2013 2:00PM UK Industrial Production (YoY) % Change May (0.60) --

    7:00AM China Consumer Price Index (YoY) % Change Jun 2.10 --

    July 10, 2013 4:29PM India Imports YoY% % Change Jun 7.00 --

    4:29PM India Exports YoY% % Change Jun (1.10) --

    4:29PM China Exports YoY% % Change Jun 1.00 --

    July 12, 2013 11:00AM India Industrial Production YoY % Change May 2.30 --

    6:00PM US Producer Price Index (mom) % Change Jun 0.50 --

    July 15, 2013 12:00PM India Monthly Wholesale Prices YoY% % Change Jun 4.70 --

    7:30AM China Industrial Production (YoY) % Change Jun 9.20 --7:30AM China Real GDP (YoY) % Change 2Q 7.70 --

    July 16, 2013 2:00PM UK CPI (YoY) % Change Jun 2.70 --

    6:00PM US Consumer price index (mom) % Change Jun 0.10 --

    2:30PM Euro Zone Euro-Zone CPI (YoY) % Jun F 1.40 --

    6:45PM US Industrial Production % Jun 0.04 --

    Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

    June 25, 2013

    Market Outlook

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    Market OutlookJune 25, 2013

    www.angelbroking.com

    Macro watch

    Exhibit 1:Q uarterly G D P trends

    Source: CSO, Angel Research

    Exhibit 2:IIP trends

    Source: MOSPI, Angel Research

    Exhibit 3:M onthly WPI inflation trends

    Source: MOSPI, Angel Research

    Exhibit 4:M a nufacturing a nd services PM I

    Source: Ma rket, Angel Research; N ote: Level above 50 ind icates expansion

    Exhibit 5:Expo rts an d impo rts growth trends

    Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

    Exhibit 6:Key policy rates

    Source: RBI, Angel Research

    9.3

    7.7

    11.4

    9.5

    8.69.2

    9.9

    7.5

    6.56.0

    5.1 5.4 5.24.7 4.8

    3.0

    4.0

    5.0

    6.0

    7.0

    8.0

    9.0

    10.0

    11.0

    12.0

    2QFY10

    3QFY10

    4QFY10

    1QFY11

    2QFY11

    3QFY11

    4QFY11

    1QFY12

    2QFY12

    3QFY12

    4QFY12

    1QFY13

    2QFY13

    3QFY13

    4QFY13

    (%)

    2.5

    (2.0)

    (0.1)

    2.0

    (0.7)

    8.4

    (1.0) (0.6)

    2.5

    0.5

    3.42.3

    (4.0)

    (2.0)

    -

    2.0

    4.0

    6.0

    8.0

    10.0

    May-1

    2

    Jun-1

    2

    Jul-12

    Aug-1

    2

    Sep-1

    2

    Oc-1

    2

    No-1

    2

    Dec-1

    2

    Jan-1

    3

    Feb

    -13

    Mar-13

    Apr-13

    (%)

    7.58.0 8.1

    7.3 7.2 7.3 7.3 7.3

    5.74.9 4.7

    0.0

    1.0

    2.0

    3.0

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    5.0

    6.0

    7.0

    8.0

    9.0

    Jul-12

    Aug-1

    2

    Sep-1

    2

    Oc-1

    2

    No-1

    2

    Dec-1

    2

    Jan-1

    3

    Feb

    -13

    Mar-13

    Apr-13

    May-1

    3

    (%)

    48.0

    50.0

    52.0

    54.0

    56.0

    58.0

    Mar-12

    Apr-12

    May-1

    2

    Jun-1

    2

    Jul-12

    Aug-1

    2

    Sep-1

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    Oc-1

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    Nov-1

    2

    Dec-1

    2

    Jan-1

    3

    Feb

    -13

    Mar-13

    Apr-13

    May-1

    3

    Mfg. PMI Services PMI

    (15.0)

    0.0

    15.0

    Jun-1

    2

    Jul-12

    Aug-1

    2

    Sep-1

    2

    Oc-1

    2

    No-1

    2

    Dec-1

    2

    Jan-1

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    Feb

    -13

    Mar-13

    Apr-13

    May-1

    3

    Exports yoy growth Imports yoy growth(%)

    3.00

    4.00

    5.00

    6.00

    7.00

    8.00

    9.00

    Jul-12

    Aug-12

    Sep-12

    Oc-12

    No-12

    Dec-12

    Jan-13

    Feb-13

    Mar-13

    Apr-13

    May-13

    Jun-13

    Repo rate Reverse Repo rate CRR(%)

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    Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS () PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)

    ( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E

    Agri / Agri Chemical

    Rallis Neutral 132 - 2,567 1,657 1,906 14.1 14.1 7.7 8.9 17.1 14.8 3.6 3.0 22.2 21.9 1.5 1.3

    United Phosphorus Buy 129 232 5,707 10,298 11,310 16.5 16.5 20.5 23.2 6.3 5.6 1.1 0.9 18.0 17.4 0.6 0.5

    Auto & Auto Ancillary

    Amara Raja Batteries Accumulate 249 285 4,252 3,418 3,892 14.5 14.5 18.5 20.4 13.5 12.2 3.2 2.7 26.6 23.8 1.3 1.1

    Apollo Tyres Neutral 58 - 2,944 13,852 15,487 11.4 11.5 12.8 14.9 4.6 3.9 0.7 0.6 17.5 17.3 0.3 0.3

    Ashok Leyland Buy 21 27 5,468 14,038 16,442 7.6 8.7 1.1 2.2 19.7 9.2 1.7 1.5 6.2 12.5 0.5 0.4

    Automotive Axle# Neutral 225 - 340 834 965 9.3 10.6 17.3 27.1 13.0 8.3 1.2 1.1 9.5 14.0 0.5 0.4Bajaj Auto Accumulate 1,795 2,056 51,941 22,684 25,908 18.0 18.5 117.3 137.1 15.3 13.1 5.5 4.4 39.9 37.2 1.9 1.6

    Bharat Forge Neutral 221 - 5,138 6,198 6,793 14.6 14.9 14.5 17.3 15.2 12.8 2.0 1.8 13.6 14.7 0.9 0.8

    Bosch India* Neutral 8,774 - 27,548 9,821 11,394 17.0 17.3 373.5 438.7 23.5 20.0 4.2 3.6 18.0 17.9 2.5 2.1

    CEAT Buy 109 170 373 5,325 5,974 8.4 8.3 40.8 48.5 2.7 2.3 0.4 0.4 17.3 17.6 0.2 0.2

    Exide Industries Buy 121 150 10,294 7,053 8,061 14.2 14.5 7.8 9.1 15.5 13.3 2.6 2.3 18.1 18.2 1.2 1.0

    FAG Bearings* Neutral 1,442 - 2,397 1,525 1,742 14.5 15.7 88.4 109.5 16.3 13.2 2.4 2.0 15.5 16.5 1.4 1.2

    Hero Motocorp Accumulate 1,581 1,819 31,567 25,274 27,658 14.1 13.7 110.2 139.9 14.4 11.3 5.2 4.1 39.8 40.7 1.1 0.9

    JK Tyre Buy 105 154 430 7,972 8,754 7.1 7.1 37.5 44.0 2.8 2.4 0.4 0.4 16.4 16.6 0.3 0.3

    Mahindra and Mahindra Buy 927 1,090 56,910 45,254 51,197 11.4 11.7 61.2 70.2 15.2 13.2 3.2 2.7 22.7 21.9 1.0 0.9

    Maruti Buy 1,544 1,847 46,649 48,455 55,723 11.2 10.9 107.8 123.2 14.3 12.5 2.2 1.9 16.2 16.0 0.8 0.7

    Motherson Sumi Accumulate 200 222 11,740 28,442 31,493 7.5 7.8 12.5 14.8 16.0 13.5 3.9 3.1 27.5 25.8 0.6 0.5

    Subros Buy 22 30 131 1,479 1,685 10.0 9.9 5.5 7.5 4.0 2.9 0.4 0.4 11.1 13.7 0.4 0.3

    Tata Motors Buy 284 347 76,418 215,016 237,404 13.3 13.6 36.2 41.5 7.8 6.8 1.8 1.4 24.6 23.2 0.4 0.4

    TVS Motor Buy 32 41 1,504 7,715 8,584 6.0 6.1 5.0 5.8 6.4 5.5 1.1 0.9 18.1 18.5 0.1 0.1

    Capital Goods

    ABB* Sell 582 461 12,343 8,073 9,052 5.5 6.9 11.5 16.9 50.6 34.4 4.6 4.4 9.3 13.1 1.6 1.4BGR Energy Neutral 126 - 906 4,114 4,886 11.4 10.7 24.9 28.0 5.0 4.5 0.7 0.6 25.2 22.6 0.5 0.5

    BHEL Neutral 166 - 40,508 44,054 39,326 16.8 15.1 20.6 16.1 8.0 10.3 1.8 1.6 23.5 16.1 0.8 0.9

    Blue Star Buy 157 230 1,414 2,896 3,087 5.6 6.2 9.3 11.7 16.9 13.4 2.8 2.4 17.6 19.2 0.6 0.5

    Crompton Greaves Buy 74 117 4,769 13,446 15,272 6.7 7.6 6.6 8.9 11.2 8.4 1.2 1.1 11.4 14.0 0.5 0.4

    Jyoti Structures Neutral 20 - 165 3,360 3,597 9.7 9.8 7.3 10.2 2.7 2.0 0.6 0.5 8.8 11.4 0.3 0.3

    KEC International Buy 28 63 730 7,709 8,399 6.7 7.2 6.1 8.5 4.7 3.3 0.6 0.5 20.2 23.0 0.3 0.3

    Thermax Neutral 591 - 7,038 5,780 6,430 9.5 9.6 29.8 33.0 19.8 17.9 3.3 2.9 17.9 17.4 1.0 0.9

    Cement

    ACC Buy 1,165 1,361 21,874 11,979 13,254 19.7 21.3 77.1 91.4 15.1 12.7 2.7 2.4 18.7 20.0 1.5 1.3

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    June 25, 2013

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    Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS () PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)

    ( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E

    Cement

    Ambuja Cements Neutral 181 - 27,873 10,232 11,762 23.5 24.5 10.3 12.2 17.5 14.9 2.9 2.6 17.2 18.6 2.3 1.9

    India Cements Neutral 58 - 1,794 4,929 5,434 17.4 17.1 8.9 10.9 6.6 5.4 0.5 0.5 7.7 9.1 0.7 0.6

    J K Lakshmi Cement Buy 106 143 1,244 2,247 2,742 21.0 23.1 17.8 21.8 5.9 4.8 0.9 0.7 15.5 16.4 0.5 0.9

    Madras Cements Neutral 212 - 5,051 4,234 4,788 23.9 24.0 18.5 22.8 11.5 9.3 1.8 1.6 17.2 18.2 1.6 1.3

    Shree Cement^ Neutral 4,521 - 15,750 6,540 7,452 27.4 26.6 319.7 369.9 14.1 12.2 3.5 2.8 27.5 25.4 1.8 1.4

    UltraTech Cement Neutral 1,783 - 48,896 21,947 25,049 23.8 23.8 106.1 119.8 16.8 14.9 2.8 2.4 17.7 17.3 2.3 2.0

    ConstructionAshoka Buildcon Buy 183 255 965 1,928 2,234 21.0 21.5 18.0 22.2 10.2 8.3 0.9 0.8 10.2 10.1 1.9 1.8

    Consolidated Co Neutral 10 - 183 2,281 2,492 5.9 6.9 0.7 2.0 14.5 4.9 0.3 0.3 2.3 6.5 0.4 0.3

    IRB Infra Buy 105 157 3,487 3,997 4,312 45.5 46.4 15.7 16.6 6.7 6.3 1.0 0.9 15.2 14.5 3.3 3.6

    ITNL Buy 159 230 3,082 7,444 8,041 27.4 28.9 29.8 32.1 5.3 5.0 0.8 0.7 14.9 14.2 2.5 2.6

    IVRCL Infra Buy 14 29 422 5,673 5,892 8.1 8.4 1.4 1.8 9.5 7.5 0.2 0.2 2.0 2.6 0.5 0.5

    Jaiprakash Asso. Buy 51 90 11,351 14,850 15,631 24.9 25.1 2.5 2.9 20.2 17.9 0.8 0.8 4.2 4.7 2.7 2.6

    Larsen & Toubro Buy 1,355 1,761 83,493 68,946 78,040 10.5 10.5 77.9 88.3 17.4 15.3 2.6 2.3 15.5 15.6 1.4 1.2

    Nagarjuna Const. Buy 22 42 568 6,167 6,945 8.0 8.2 2.7 3.6 8.3 6.1 0.2 0.2 2.7 3.6 0.5 0.4

    Punj Lloyd Neutral 33 - 1,098 12,954 14,740 9.9 9.9 0.5 0.9 65.1 35.5 0.4 0.4 0.6 1.1 0.5 0.5

    Sadbhav Engg. Buy 98 139 1,473 2,462 2,731 10.6 10.6 5.9 6.7 16.6 14.7 1.6 1.5 10.2 10.5 0.9 0.8

    Simplex Infra Buy 83 131 411 6,308 7,033 9.5 9.6 11.9 18.7 7.0 4.4 0.3 0.3 4.5 6.7 0.5 0.5

    Unity Infra Buy 24 41 174 2,146 2,339 13.7 13.8 11.0 11.5 2.1 2.0 0.2 0.2 9.3 9.0 0.6 0.6

    Financials

    Allahabad Bank Buy 97 136 4,840 6,782 7,440 2.5 2.5 15.5 22.8 6.3 4.2 0.5 0.4 7.2 9.9 - -

    Andhra Bank Accumulate 79 89 4,440 5,254 5,900 2.8 2.8 21.2 22.9 3.8 3.5 0.6 0.5 13.3 13.0 - -

    Axis Bank Buy 1,242 1,871 58,219 19,079 22,765 3.3 3.2 137.8 156.8 9.0 7.9 1.5 1.3 18.1 17.9 - -Bank of Baroda Buy 549 849 23,131 16,163 18,549 2.2 2.3 116.9 137.3 4.7 4.0 0.7 0.6 14.6 15.3 - -

    Bank of India Buy 229 335 13,631 14,272 16,038 2.2 2.2 56.0 64.3 4.1 3.6 0.6 0.5 13.9 14.3 - -

    Bank of Maharashtra Neutral 49 - 3,228 4,328 4,669 3.0 2.9 10.9 12.7 4.5 3.9 0.7 0.6 17.7 17.9 - -

    Canara Bank Buy 344 481 15,226 11,928 13,467 2.1 2.2 74.8 86.0 4.6 4.0 0.7 0.6 13.7 14.2 - -

    Central Bank Accumulate 61 68 6,335 8,124 9,075 2.4 2.4 14.2 17.7 4.3 3.4 0.6 0.5 12.0 13.5 - -

    Corporation Bank Buy 350 476 5,354 5,558 6,121 2.0 2.0 98.4 107.7 3.6 3.3 0.5 0.5 14.9 14.5 - -

    Dena Bank Buy 71 97 2,473 3,187 3,582 2.3 2.4 23.8 25.5 3.0 2.8 0.5 0.4 15.9 15.1 - -

    Federal Bank Accumulate 401 459 6,852 2,873 3,413 3.0 3.1 52.7 62.0 7.6 6.5 1.0 0.9 13.4 14.2 - -

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    Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS () PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)

    ( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E

    Financials

    HDFC Accumulate 826 898 127,968 8,573 10,142 3.6 3.6 37.0 43.6 22.3 18.9 4.6 4.1 30.0 30.3 - -

    HDFC Bank Buy 625 732 149,342 28,361 34,747 4.6 4.6 33.9 41.0 18.4 15.2 3.5 3.0 20.7 21.2 - -

    ICICI Bank Buy 1,050 1,503 121,135 25,705 30,330 3.1 3.2 83.9 96.3 12.5 10.9 1.7 1.5 15.2 15.7 - -

    IDBI Bank Buy 70 89 9,356 9,477 10,678 2.0 2.1 19.6 22.6 3.6 3.1 0.4 0.4 12.8 13.4 - -

    Indian Bank Buy 114 164 4,914 6,185 6,978 3.0 3.0 37.0 42.2 3.1 2.7 0.5 0.4 14.8 15.1 - -

    IOB Buy 49 62 4,570 8,142 8,956 2.5 2.5 16.5 20.7 3.0 2.4 0.4 0.3 11.8 13.4 - -

    J & K Bank Accumulate 1,131 1,315 5,484 3,074 3,140 3.5 3.2 224.7 201.5 5.0 5.6 1.0 0.9 20.6 16.1 - -LIC Housing Finance Buy 253 298 12,778 2,113 2,525 2.3 2.3 25.4 29.2 10.0 8.7 1.8 1.5 18.4 18.3 - -

    Oriental Bank Buy 206 261 6,012 6,835 7,588 2.6 2.6 56.5 63.8 3.7 3.2 0.5 0.4 13.1 13.4 - -

    Punjab Natl.Bank Buy 648 987 22,887 20,632 23,646 3.3 3.3 147.2 171.8 4.4 3.8 0.7 0.6 15.6 16.1 - -

    South Ind.Bank Buy 22 25 2,882 1,814 2,061 2.9 2.8 4.1 4.4 5.3 4.9 0.9 0.8 17.6 16.6 - -

    St Bk of India Buy 1,949 2,637 133,308 67,243 76,612 3.1 3.0 242.4 284.8 8.0 6.8 1.2 1.1 16.3 16.8 - -

    Syndicate Bank Buy 111 141 6,703 7,158 8,169 2.6 2.6 26.7 30.0 4.2 3.7 0.6 0.6 15.8 15.7 - -

    UCO Bank Accumulate 63 76 4,749 6,250 6,738 2.6 2.5 12.1 14.7 5.2 4.3 0.8 0.7 11.8 13.0 - -

    Union Bank Buy 183 259 10,933 11,107 12,650 2.6 2.6 39.4 46.8 4.7 3.9 0.7 0.6 14.2 15.0 - -

    United Bank Buy 46 65 1,720 3,443 3,998 2.4 2.6 15.1 20.4 3.1 2.3 0.4 0.3 12.1 14.8 - -

    Vijaya Bank Neutral 44 - 2,195 2,730 3,059 1.9 2.0 10.2 11.3 4.4 3.9 0.5 0.5 11.8 12.0 - -

    Yes Bank Buy 441 524 15,852 4,429 5,502 2.8 2.9 42.3 49.5 10.4 8.9 2.2 1.9 23.5 22.8 - -

    FMCG

    Asian Paints Neutral 4,392 - 42,128 12,332 14,524 16.5 16.3 141.6 162.7 31.0 27.0 9.8 7.8 35.4 32.2 3.4 2.9

    Britannia Neutral 649 - 7,767 6,417 7,502 6.1 6.3 23.2 27.9 28.0 23.3 9.6 7.6 38.3 36.4 1.2 1.0

    Colgate Neutral 1,288 - 17,510 3,588 4,130 20.5 20.9 44.2 51.8 29.1 24.9 28.4 20.7 108.6 96.2 4.8 4.1

    Dabur India Neutral 155 - 26,928 7,183 8,340 16.8 16.8 5.4 6.3 28.8 24.6 11.2 8.7 41.5 40.1 3.7 3.1GlaxoSmith Con* Neutral 4,981 - 20,947 3,617 4,259 16.1 16.4 122.2 148.7 40.8 33.5 12.7 10.2 34.1 33.7 5.3 4.4

    Godrej Consumer Neutral 779 - 26,520 7,801 9,017 16.2 15.9 25.1 29.7 31.0 26.3 6.7 5.6 24.9 24.2 3.6 3.1

    HUL Neutral 584 - 126,375 29,167 33,164 13.6 13.7 17.1 18.4 34.2 31.8 32.9 23.8 113.4 87.0 4.2 3.7

    ITC Neutral 314 - 248,434 34,294 39,991 36.8 37.0 11.3 13.3 27.9 23.6 9.2 7.4 36.1 34.9 7.1 6.0

    Marico Neutral 203 - 13,103 5,273 6,044 14.8 14.9 7.3 8.7 28.0 23.5 5.5 4.5 21.4 21.0 2.6 2.2

    Nestle* Neutral 5,000 - 48,205 9,447 10,968 22.1 22.3 127.5 154.1 39.2 32.4 19.6 14.2 57.7 50.7 5.2 4.3

    Tata Global Accumulate 133 145 8,246 8,069 8,957 9.8 9.7 7.8 8.6 17.1 15.5 2.0 2.0 9.5 9.7 1.0 0.9

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    June 25, 2013

  • 7/28/2019 Market Outlook, 25-06-2013

    8/12

    Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS () PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)

    ( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E

    IT

    HCL Tech^ Accumulate 760 863 52,944 28,633 32,216 21.5 20.7 57.3 61.7 13.3 12.3 3.2 2.6 24.0 21.5 1.7 1.4

    Hexaware* Buy 79 96 2,362 2,091 2,289 19.0 18.8 10.6 11.3 7.5 7.0 1.7 1.5 22.8 21.7 1.0 0.8

    Infosys Neutral 2,380 - 136,683 43,338 47,244 27.5 27.7 169.4 182.6 14.1 13.0 2.9 2.5 20.8 19.3 2.6 2.2

    Infotech Enterprises Accumulate 180 185 2,010 1,956 2,174 17.9 17.7 20.4 21.9 8.8 8.2 1.3 1.1 14.7 13.7 0.6 0.5

    KPIT Cummins Accumulate 118 135 2,287 2,513 2,819 16.1 15.5 12.6 14.0 9.4 8.5 1.6 1.4 17.9 16.6 0.9 0.7

    Mahindra Satyam Accumulate 115 126 13,511 8,278 9,062 20.3 20.1 10.5 11.4 10.9 10.1 2.5 2.0 23.1 20.0 1.2 1.0

    Mindtree Accumulate 819 920 3,401 2,599 2,871 19.4 19.2 85.2 92.3 9.6 8.9 2.0 1.6 21.4 18.9 1.0 0.8Mphasis& Neutral 377 - 7,924 6,096 6,646 17.6 17.4 38.1 41.6 9.9 9.1 1.4 1.2 14.2 13.7 0.9 0.7

    NIIT Buy 20 30 324 1,144 1,267 9.0 9.1 4.3 5.4 4.6 3.7 0.5 0.4 10.3 12.0 0.1 -

    Persistent Buy 499 593 1,997 1,445 1,617 25.2 25.0 55.3 59.3 9.0 8.4 1.6 1.4 18.2 16.5 1.0 0.8

    TCS Accumulate 1,410 1,585 275,939 71,833 81,893 28.4 28.0 78.5 88.0 18.0 16.0 5.4 4.5 30.2 27.9 3.6 3.1

    Tech Mahindra Buy 1,000 1,170 12,842 7,779 8,398 19.7 19.3 107.4 117.8 9.3 8.5 2.0 1.6 21.2 19.0 1.6 1.4

    Wipro Accumulate 347 385 85,406 40,173 43,697 20.4 20.6 26.2 28.5 13.2 12.2 2.6 2.2 19.7 18.4 1.6 1.4

    Media

    D B Corp Buy 228 290 4,172 1,750 1,925 25.1 26.6 14.2 16.8 16.0 13.6 3.5 2.9 23.4 23.4 2.3 2.0

    HT Media Buy 96 117 2,255 2,205 2,380 15.1 15.6 8.3 9.1 11.6 10.5 1.3 1.1 11.5 11.4 0.7 0.6

    Jagran Prakashan Buy 84 119 2,798 1,664 1,825 20.9 23.0 6.4 7.8 13.1 10.9 2.7 2.4 21.0 23.1 1.8 1.6

    PVR Neutral 320 - 1,270 1,359 1,540 17.3 17.4 17.2 21.6 18.6 14.9 1.9 1.7 10.3 12.0 1.4 1.2

    Sun TV Network Neutral 354 - 13,962 2,287 2,551 69.7 70.5 20.0 23.3 17.7 15.2 4.4 3.8 26.4 27.3 6.0 5.2

    Metals & Mining

    Bhushan Steel Neutral 464 - 10,505 13,794 17,088 30.9 33.5 49.3 66.6 9.4 7.0 1.0 0.9 11.3 13.5 2.4 1.9

    Coal India Buy 297 345 187,754 72,174 76,311 33.3 28.4 28.4 30.9 10.5 9.6 2.9 2.5 37.6 36.2 1.8 1.6

    Electrosteel Castings Buy 14 24 441 1,976 2,017 11.8 12.7 1.3 2.6 10.7 5.2 0.1 0.1 2.6 5.2 0.5 0.1GMDC Buy 128 193 4,069 1,920 2,239 53.2 52.9 21.6 25.0 5.9 5.1 1.4 1.1 25.1 23.8 1.7 1.3

    Hind. Zinc Buy 103 145 43,310 12,358 13,659 51.4 51.6 16.0 17.6 6.4 5.8 1.2 1.0 19.4 18.4 1.4 0.9

    Hindalco Neutral 94 - 18,035 89,352 93,672 8.8 9.2 13.4 15.0 7.0 6.3 0.5 0.5 7.3 7.6 0.5 0.5

    JSW Steel Neutral 675 - 15,057 39,973 40,926 17.2 17.0 71.9 82.8 9.4 8.2 0.8 0.8 9.0 9.6 0.7 0.6

    MOIL Buy 192 248 3,223 1,010 1,046 46.5 47.6 26.8 28.8 7.2 6.7 1.0 0.9 15.4 14.7 0.9 0.7

    Monnet Ispat Buy 135 193 862 2,326 2,709 21.4 23.1 33.3 43.1 4.1 3.1 0.3 0.3 8.3 9.9 1.4 1.1

    Nalco Neutral 29 - 7,500 7,656 7,988 13.1 13.5 2.6 2.6 11.4 11.1 0.6 0.6 5.5 5.5 0.4 0.5

    NMDC Buy 103 156 40,916 10,461 11,892 71.6 72.6 16.3 17.6 6.4 5.9 1.3 1.2 22.1 21.4 2.2 1.9

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    June 25, 2013

  • 7/28/2019 Market Outlook, 25-06-2013

    9/12

    Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS () PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)

    ( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E

    Metals & Mining

    SAIL Neutral 51 - 21,105 44,060 54,786 9.4 11.5 5.2 7.2 9.8 7.1 0.5 0.5 5.2 6.8 0.7 0.6

    Sesa Goa Buy 134 166 11,663 3,742 4,426 32.9 32.8 30.0 29.8 4.5 4.5 0.6 0.5 14.3 12.5 4.0 3.3

    Sterlite Inds Buy 77 100 26,028 44,462 45,568 23.2 24.7 18.1 20.2 4.3 3.8 0.5 0.4 11.3 11.4 0.5 0.5

    Tata Steel Buy 267 378 25,907 140,917 151,537 9.7 10.8 30.9 47.6 8.6 5.6 0.8 0.7 9.6 13.4 0.6 0.5

    Sarda Buy 97 153 346 1,494 1,568 19.1 20.3 31.3 36.5 3.1 2.7 0.4 0.3 11.8 12.4 0.6 0.5

    Prakash Industries Buy 29 45 391 2,615 2,776 12.1 12.0 9.8 10.4 3.0 2.8 0.2 0.2 6.5 6.5 0.4 0.4

    Godawari Power andIspat Buy 75 102 246 2,344 2,509 14.9 15.4 38.7 47.0 1.9 1.6 0.2 0.2 12.3 12.9 0.5 0.4

    Oil & Gas

    Cairn India Buy 283 345 54,090 16,482 16,228 69.4 53.3 53.3 49.6 5.3 5.7 0.8 0.7 16.5 13.6 2.0 1.7

    GAIL Neutral 284 - 36,082 52,102 52,876 15.7 16.1 34.1 35.7 8.4 8.0 1.3 1.2 16.4 15.3 0.3 0.2

    ONGC Buy 299 372 255,681 170,063 193,024 36.3 36.9 34.7 38.3 8.6 7.8 1.5 1.3 18.3 17.9 1.3 1.0

    Reliance Industries Neutral 793 - 256,191 380,031 407,721 9.9 69.3 69.3 78.0 11.5 10.2 1.1 1.0 11.5 11.7 0.6 0.6

    Gujarat Gas* Neutral 200 - 2,565 3,707 3,850 11.7 12.4 23.7 25.7 8.4 7.8 2.4 2.1 29.6 28.2 0.6 0.5

    Indraprastha Gas Neutral 266 - 3,720 3,700 4,218 23.4 22.8 26.7 30.4 10.0 8.7 2.1 1.8 22.7 21.8 1.1 0.9

    Petronet LNG Buy 118 167 8,865 40,356 40,872 5.8 6.4 15.0 16.7 7.9 7.1 1.7 1.4 23.0 21.5 0.3 0.3

    Gujarat State PetronetLtd.

    Neutral 51 - 2,892 1,171 1,287 91.9 91.9 10.1 11.3 5.1 4.5 0.8 0.7 17.3 16.8 - -

    Pharmaceuticals

    Alembic Pharma Neutral 128 - 2,404 1,736 2,008 17.1 18.9 10.7 13.9 11.9 9.2 3.7 2.8 35.0 34.7 1.5 1.3

    Aurobindo Pharma Buy 172 271 5,019 6,641 7,637 15.9 15.9 17.3 20.6 10.0 8.4 1.6 1.3 19.5 18.9 1.2 1.0

    Aventis* Neutral 2,487 - 5,728 1,682 1,917 16.6 16.6 92.4 99.1 26.9 25.1 3.8 3.8 15.7 14.8 3.1 2.5

    Cadila Healthcare Buy 767 929 15,706 7,280 8,640 15.5 15.7 38.3 46.5 20.0 16.5 4.3 3.6 23.5 23.5 2.5 2.1

    Cipla Buy 380 477 30,511 9,274 10,796 23.1 23.1 21.0 23.8 18.1 16.0 2.9 2.5 17.2 16.8 3.0 2.5Dr Reddy's Buy 2,103 2,535 35,733 13,377 15,350 20.4 20.1 112.3 126.8 18.7 16.6 4.0 3.3 23.5 21.8 2.8 2.4

    Dishman Pharma Buy 56 168 454 1,394 1,534 22.5 22.4 15.0 16.8 3.8 3.4 0.4 0.4 11.0 11.2 1.0 0.8

    GSK Pharma* Neutral 2,423 - 20,527 2,854 3,145 28.6 28.6 76.6 83.3 31.6 29.1 9.5 8.6 31.1 31.0 6.5 5.8

    Indoco Remedies Buy 62 78 572 760 922 15.3 15.3 6.1 7.8 10.2 8.0 1.3 1.1 12.9 14.7 1.0 0.8

    Ipca labs Neutral 648 - 8,174 3,243 3,826 20.5 21.5 36.0 44.4 18.0 14.6 4.2 3.3 26.0 25.4 2.8 2.3

    Lupin Accumulate 797 877 35,667 11,641 13,933 21.3 21.3 34.8 41.8 22.9 19.1 5.4 4.2 26.2 24.8 3.1 2.5

    Ranbaxy* Neutral 326 - 13,772 11,400 12,060 10.5 12.5 17.5 22.5 18.6 14.5 3.0 2.6 17.0 19.1 1.2 1.1

    Sun Pharma Neutral 948 - 98,011 13,509 15,846 41.0 41.0 33.0 39.8 28.7 23.8 5.8 4.8 22.0 22.0 6.7 5.5

    Power

    GIPCL Accumulate 67 78 1,015 1,444 1,482 33.4 33.0 13.7 14.8 4.9 4.5 0.6 0.5 12.3 12.0 0.8 0.5

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    June 25, 2013

  • 7/28/2019 Market Outlook, 25-06-2013

    10/12

    Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS () PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)

    ( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E

    Power

    NTPC Accumulate 142 163 117,044 76,734 86,680 24.5 24.3 13.4 14.5 10.6 9.8 1.3 1.2 12.8 12.7 2.2 2.1

    Real Estate

    DLF Buy 164 236 29,241 8,293 9,622 36.5 36.1 5.7 6.7 28.8 24.4 1.0 1.0 3.7 4.1 5.9 4.9

    MLIFE Buy 382 476 1,560 888 1,002 30.6 30.6 38.8 43.4 9.8 8.8 1.1 1.0 11.2 11.4 2.3 2.1

    Telecom

    Bharti Airtel Accumulate 283 328 113,166 86,592 95,860 31.4 31.8 10.9 14.5 26.0 19.5 2.0 1.8 7.7 9.3 1.9 1.6

    Idea Cellular Neutral 138 - 45,602 25,122 27,663 27.0 27.2 4.0 4.8 34.7 28.9 2.9 2.6 8.3 9.1 2.3 2.0Rcom Neutral 114 - 23,458 22,801 24,628 31.0 31.3 3.6 5.3 31.9 21.6 0.7 0.7 2.2 3.1 2.7 2.3

    Others

    Abbott India* Buy 1,437 1,659 3,052 1,863 2,081 11.8 12.4 71.2 83.0 20.2 17.3 4.1 3.5 21.6 21.5 1.4 1.1

    Bajaj Electricals Buy 173 237 1,730 3,885 4,472 5.4 7.2 11.0 19.7 15.8 8.8 2.2 1.8 13.5 20.3 0.4 0.4

    Cera Sanitaryware Accumulate 495 562 627 630 795 14.4 13.6 42.8 51.1 11.6 9.7 2.8 2.2 26.6 25.2 1.0 0.8

    Cravatex Buy 307 459 79 248 284 6.5 7.3 27.2 38.2 11.3 8.0 1.8 1.5 15.7 18.5 0.5 0.4

    Finolex Cables Buy 47 68 724 2,563 2,899 9.8 9.8 10.1 11.3 4.7 4.2 0.7 0.6 14.3 13.8 0.2 0.2

    Force Motors Buy 272 437 355 2,304 2,649 3.1 3.6 28.0 43.7 9.7 6.2 0.3 0.3 3.1 4.7 0.1 0.1

    Goodyear India* Buy 294 345 678 1,458 1,542 8.3 9.0 32.3 37.0 9.1 7.9 1.7 1.4 19.5 19.3 0.3 0.2

    Hitachi Buy 125 177 341 1,053 1,169 6.3 7.1 13.8 17.7 9.1 7.1 1.3 1.1 15.0 16.7 0.4 0.3

    Honeywell Automation* Neutral 2,398 - 2,120 1,842 2,131 7.7 7.8 112.4 132.4 21.3 18.1 2.7 2.4 13.3 13.8 1.1 0.9

    IFB Agro Buy 143 198 129 495 651 12.7 12.9 29.3 39.5 4.9 3.6 0.7 0.6 15.4 17.6 0.4 0.3

    ITD Cementation Buy 160 234 184 1,430 1,573 11.1 11.0 19.1 26.9 8.4 6.0 0.4 0.4 4.9 6.3 0.5 0.5

    Jyothy Laboratories Neutral 188 - 3,120 1,220 1,476 13.3 13.6 5.5 9.0 34.1 20.8 3.9 3.5 12.1 17.7 3.0 2.4

    MRF Accumulate 12,337 14,416 5,232 11,799 12,587 14.1 13.5 1,792.4 1,802.0 6.9 6.9 1.5 1.2 23.5 19.2 0.6 0.5

    Page Industries Accumulate 4,053 4,611 4,521 1,057 1,282 19.4 19.6 124.8 153.7 32.5 26.4 16.1 11.9 56.3 51.8 4.3 3.6Relaxo Footwears Accumulate 750 791 900 1,146 1,333 10.9 11.4 45.9 60.9 16.4 12.3 3.4 2.7 23.0 24.6 0.9 0.8

    Siyaram Silk Mills Buy 229 343 215 1,158 1,322 11.9 11.9 72.9 85.7 3.1 2.7 0.6 0.5 19.9 19.6 0.4 0.4

    Styrolution ABS India* Buy 400 617 704 1,068 1,223 9.6 9.6 38.1 44.1 10.5 9.1 1.4 1.3 14.5 14.7 0.7 0.6

    TAJ GVK Buy 60 108 375 300 319 35.8 36.2 7.9 9.1 7.6 6.6 1.0 0.9 13.9 14.4 1.6 1.3

    Tata Sponge Iron Buy 278 371 428 814 849 17.0 17.6 64.6 69.2 4.3 4.0 0.6 0.5 14.5 13.8 0.1 -

    TTK Healthcare Buy 505 686 392 435 516 6.2 7.1 24.3 33.3 20.8 15.2 3.4 2.9 17.6 20.8 0.8 0.6

    Tree House Accumulate 239 297 860 153 194 53.0 52.8 12.4 15.6 19.3 15.3 2.3 2.0 11.8 13.1 6.5 5.0

    TVS Srichakra Buy 177 252 136 1,591 1,739 6.1 6.6 24.5 41.9 7.3 4.2 0.8 0.7 10.9 17.2 0.3 0.3

    United Spirits Neutral 2,301 - 33,436 12,294 14,162 12.0 12.0 42.1 67.7 54.7 34.0 3.9 3.5 9.1 10.7 3.2 2.7

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    June 25, 2013

  • 7/28/2019 Market Outlook, 25-06-2013

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    Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS () PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)

    ( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E

    Others

    Vesuvius India* Buy 359 439 730 600 638 20.1 19.4 35.7 36.6 10.1 9.8 1.8 1.6 19.4 17.1 1.0 0.9

    Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year end; #September year end; &October year end; Price as on June 24, 2013

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    Market OutlookJune 25, 2013