Le Sommet Climat de Paris: échec ou succès ? Bilan et perspectives

Jean-Pascal van Ypersele (Université catholique de Louvain)

Ancien Vice-président du GIEC (2008- oct. 2015)

Twitter: @JPvanYpersele

Vereniging voor internationale relaties (VIRA), Bruxelles, 17 décembre 2015

Thanks to the Belgian Federal Science Policy Office (BELSPO) and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and to my team at the Université catholique de Louvain for their support

Plan

-  Un accord hi-sto-rique! -  Un accord tout-à-fait insuffisant -  Y a du boulot !

Plan

-  Un accord hi-sto-rique !

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

Paris Agreement!

!! "#$%&'(I*(!! "0(15$/15&&@(='.'#981'=(%/1.#84<$/10(./(.3'(2&/45&(#'06/10'(./(%&895.'(%3512':(6##$>6,?"-(5#'(./(<1='#.5F'(51=(%/99<18%5.'(5948$/<0('?/#.0(+,-(D8.3(.3'(>8'D(./(5%38'>812(.3'(6<#6/0'(/7(.380("2#''9'1.(50(0'.(/<.(81("#$%&'()J((K3'('?/#.0(/7(5&&(L5#$'0(D8&&(#'6#'0'1.(6$*,&8,"--7&4$&@",$?A":(D38&'(#'%/218C812(.3'(4"";$/&$-+**&,/$;"@"#&*748$5&+4/,:$L5#$'0(7/#(.3'('?'%$>'(896&'9'1.5$/1(/7(.380("2#''9'1.J((

Paris Agreement!

!! "#$%&'(M*(!! NJ(+,-(L5#$'0(589(./(#'5%3(8#&%6#$*"6B748(/7(2#''13/<0'(250('98008/10(6-$-&&4$6-$*&--7%#":(#'%/218C812(.35.(*"6B748$!7##$/6B"$#&48",$C&,$;"@"#&*748$5&+4/,:$>6,?"-:((

!! 51=(./(<1='#.5F'(,6*7;$,";+5?&4-$/9","6D",$74$655&,;645"$!7/9$%"-/$6@67#6%#"$-57"45":(

!! 0/(50(./(5%38'>'(5(%6#645"$%"/!""4$64/9,&*&8"475$"A7--7&4-$%:$-&+,5"-$64;$,"A&@6#-$%:$-74B-$&C$8,""49&+-"$86-"-$74$/9"$-"5&4;$96#C$&C$/97-$5"4/+,::(/1(.3'(45080(/7('O<8.@:(51=(81(.3'(%/1.';.(/7(0<0.58154&'(='>'&/69'1.(51=('?/#.0(./('#5=8%5.'(6/>'#.@(

!! IJ(E659$>6,/:F-$-+55"--7@"$46?&46##:$;"/",A74";$5&4/,7%+?&4$!7##$,"*,"-"4/$6$*,&8,"--7&4+,-(

Paris Agreement!

!! "#$%&'(M(+%/1.J-*(!! MJ(P'>'&/6'=(%/<1.#@(L5#$'0(03/<&=(%/1$1<'(.5F812(.3'(&'5=(4@(<1='#.5F812('%/1/9@BD8='(540/&<.'('98008/1(#'=<%$/1(.5#2'.0J((

!! P'>'&/6812(%/<1.#@(L5#$'0(03/<&=(%/1$1<'('1351%812(.3'8#(98$25$/1('?/#.0:(51=(5#'('1%/<#52'=(./(9/>'(/>'#($9'(./D5#=0('%/1/9@BD8='('98008/1(#'=<%$/1(/#(&898.5$/1(.5#2'.0(81(.3'(&823.(/7(=8?'#'1.(15$/15&(%8#%<90.51%'0J((

!! E659$>6,/:$-96##$5&AA+4756/"$6$46?&46##:$;"/",A74";$5&4/,7%+?&4$"@",:$<@"$:"6,-$

!! L5#$'0(035&&(.5F'(81./(%/108='#5$/1(81(.3'(896&'9'1.5$/1(/7(.380("2#''9'1.(.3'(%/1%'#10(/7(L5#$'0(D8.3('%/1/98'0(9/0.(5?'%.'=(4@(.3'(8965%.0(/7(#'06/10'(9'50<#'0:(65#$%<&5#&@(='>'&/6812(%/<1.#@(L5#$'0J((

Paris Agreement!

!! "#$%&'(Q*(!! L5#$'0(03/<&=(.5F'(5%$/1(./(%/10'#>'(51=('1351%':(50(566#/6#85.':(081F0(51=(#'0'#>/8#0(/7(2#''13/<0'(250'0(+,-(81%&<=812(7/#'0.0J((

!! L5#$'0(5#'('1%/<#52'=(./(.5F'(5%$/1(./(896&'9'1.(51=(0<66/#.(((+,-(6/&8%@(566#/5%3'0(51=(6/08$>'(81%'1$>'0(7/#(5%$>8$'0(#'&5$12(./(#'=<%812('98008/10(7#/9(='7/#'0.5$/1(51=(7/#'0.(='2#5=5$/1:((

!! "#$%&'(R(!! MJ("(9'%351809(./(%/1.#84<.'(./(.3'(98$25$/1(/7(2#''13/<0'(250('98008/10(51=(0<66/#.(0<0.58154&'(='>'&/69'1.(80(3'#'4@('0.54&803'=(<1='#(.3'(5<.3/#8.@(51=(2<8=51%'(/7(.3'(S/17'#'1%'(/7(.3'(L5#$'0(+,-(7/#(<0'(4@(L5#$'0(/1(5(>/&<1.5#@(45080J((

!! ( (

Paris Agreement!

!! "#$%&'(T(!! L5#$'0(3'#'4@('0.54&803(.3'(2&/45&(2/5&(/1(5=56.5$/1(/7('1351%812(5=56$>'(%565%8.@:(0.#'12.3'1812(#'08&8'1%'(51=(#'=<%812(><&1'#548&8.@(./(%&895.'(%3512'((

!! "#$%&'(U(!! L5#$'0(#'%/218C'(.3'(896/#.51%'(/7(5>'#$12:(981898C812(51=(6;;,"--748$#&--$64;$;6A68"$500/%85.'=(D8.3(.3'(5=>'#0'('?'%.0(/7(%&895.'(%3512':(81%&<=812(';.#'9'(D'5.3'#('>'1.0(51=(0&/D(/10'.('>'1.0:(51=(.3'(#/&'(/7(0<0.58154&'(='>'&/69'1.(81(#'=<%812(.3'(#80F(/7(&/00(51=(=5952'J((

Paris Agreement!

Plan

-  Un accord tout-à-fait insuffisant

WhytheIPCC?

toprovidepolicy-makerswithanobjec?vesourceofinforma?onabout

•  causesofclimatechange,•  poten?alenvironmental

andsocio-economicimpacts,

•  possibleresponseop?ons(adapta?on&mi?ga?on).

WMO=WorldMeteorologicalOrganiza?onUNEP=UnitedNa?onsEnvironment

Programme

Established by WMO and UNEP in 1988

What is happening in the climate system?

What are the risks?

What can be done?

IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report

Key messages from IPCC AR5 ! Human influence on the climate system is clear ! Continued emissions of greenhouse gases will increase the likelihood of severe, pervasive and irreversible impacts for people and ecosystems

! While climate change is a threat to sustainable development, there are many opportunities to integrate mitigation, adaptation, and the pursuit of other societal objectives

! Humanity has the means to limit climate change and build a more sustainable and resilient future

Each of the last three decades has been successively warmer at the Earth’s surface than any preceding decade since 1850.

In the Northern Hemisphere, 1983–2012 was likely the warmest 30-year period of the last 1400 years (medium confidence).

(IPC

C 2

013,

Fig

. SP

M.1

a)

Since 1950, extreme hot days and heavy precipitation have become more common

15

There is evidence that anthropogenic influences, including increasing atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, have changed these extremes!

PlateauGlacier(1961)(Alaska)

hVp://www.weather.com/news/science/environment/alaskas-glaciers-capturing-earth-changing-our-eyes-20131125?cm_ven=Email&cm_cat=ENVIRONMENT_us_share

PlateauGlacier(2003)(Alaska)

hVp://www.weather.com/news/science/environment/alaskas-glaciers-capturing-earth-changing-our-eyes-20131125?cm_ven=Email&cm_cat=ENVIRONMENT_us_share

S3512'(81(5>'#52'(0'5B&'>'&(%3512'(

(Lüthi et al.,2008, NOAA)

+30%

2014

The concentrations of CO2 have increased to levels

unprecedented in at least the last 800,000 years.

1000 years before present

CO

2 Con

cent

ratio

ns (p

pm)

Atmospheric concentrations of CO2!

AR3 AR2

AR1 AR4

A Progression of Understanding: Greater and Greater Certainty in Attribution

AR1 (1990): “unequivocal detection not likely for a decade”

AR2 (1995): “balance of evidence suggests discernible human influence”

AR3 (2001): “most of the warming of the past 50 years is likely (odds 2 out of 3) due to human activities”

AR4 (2007): “most of the warming is very likely (odds 9 out of 10) due to greenhouse gases”

IPCC

"aQ(+)XNI-(c`.(80("[/,"A"#:$#7B"#:$(+/==0(dQ(/<.(/7(NXX-(.35.(3<951(81e<'1%'((350(4''1(.3'(=/98151.(%5<0',(f(

Carbon cycle: unperturbed fluxes

Units: GtC (billions tons of carbon) or GtC/year (multiply by 3.7 to get GtCO2)

120

70.5

70

2300

Atmosphere pre-ind : 597

38000 Ocean

3700

respiration

Physical,

Chemical, and Biological processes

photosynthesis 119.5

vanyp@climate.be

280 ppmv (1ppmv = 2.2 GtC) GtC

Carbon cycle: perturbed by human activities (numbers for the decade 1990-1999s, based on IPCC AR4)

Units: GtC (billions tons of carbon) or GtC/year

120

70.5

70

2300

Atmosphere pre-ind : 597

38000 Ocean

3700

GtC + 3.2/yr

déforestation (& land use changes) Fossil fuels

6.4

-244 +120 -40

1.6 sinks

2.6 respiration

2.2

Physical, Chemical, and

Biological processes

photosynthesis 119.5

vanyp@climate.be Stocks!

280 ppmv + 1.5 ppmv/yr (1ppmv = 2.2 GtC)

Thecarboncycleispolicy-relevant

•  CO2accumulatesintheatmosphereaslongashumanemissionsarelargerthanthenaturalabsorp?oncapacity

•  Historicalemissionsfromdevelopedcountriesthereforema^erforalong?me

•  Aswarmingisfunc?onofcumulatedemissions,thecarbon«space»isnarrowingfast(tostayunder1.5or2°Cwarming)

IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report

AR5 SYR SPM

IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report

Sources of emissions Energy production remains the primary driver of GHG emissions

35% 24% 21% 14% 6.4%

2010 GHG emissions

Energy Sector

Agriculture, forests and

other land uses

Industry Transport Building Sector

AR5 WGIII SPM

RCP Scenarios: Atmospheric CO2 concentration!

AR5, chapter 12. WGI- Adopted version / subject to final copyedit!

Three stabilisation scenarios: RCP 2.6 to 6 One Business-as-usual scenario: RCP 8.5

Only the lowest (RCP2.6) scenario maintains the global surface temperature increase above the pre-industrial level to less than 2°C with at

least 66% probability

(IPC

C 2

013,

Fig

. SP

M.7

a)

18-20000 years ago (Last Glacial Maximum) With permission from Dr. S. Joussaume, in « Climat d’hier à demain », CNRS éditions.

Today, with +4-5°C globally With permission from Dr. S. Joussaume, in « Climat d’hier à demain », CNRS éditions.

T&,/9$E+,&*"$I$O6*$&C$/"A*",6/+,"$59648"-a$'Yb0c'0YY$!7/9$,"-*"5/$/&$$

0VbWc'YY2$74$/9"$d)>b12$-5"46,7&$L644+6#N$

`LSS(ghN(i8j3("00'009'1.(a'6/#.(+i815&(P#5j-(`LSS(ghN(i8j3("00'009'1.(a'6/#.(+i815&(P#5j-(

Precipitation projections Annual rainfall projections

T&,/9$E+,&*"$I$O6*$&C$*,"57*7/6?&4$59648"-$74$'Yb0c'0YY$!7/9$,"-*"5/$/&$$

0VbWc'YY2$74$/9"$d)>b12$-5"46,7&$L644+6#N$

`LSS(ghN(i8j3("00'009'1.(a'6/#.(+i815&(P#5j-(

74$/9"$d)>b12$-5"46,7&$L644+6#

Sea level due to continue to increase

(IPC

C 2

013,

Fig

. SP

M.9

)

(Ref: 1986-2005)

With 1 metre sea-level rise: 63000 ha below sea-level in Belgium (likely in 22nd century, not impossible in 21st century)

(NB: flooded area depends on protection)

Source: J.P. van Ypersele et P. Marbaix (2004) See www.climate.be/impacts

(Time 2001)

Effets sur le Delta du Nil, où vivent plus de 10 millions de personnes à moins d’1 m d’altitude

IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report

3A*65/-$6,"$6#,"6;:$+4;",!6:$

•! Tropics!to!the!poles •! On!all!continents!and!in!the!ocean •! Affecting!rich!and!poor!countries (but the

poor are more vulnerable everywhere)

AR5 WGII SPM

IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report

Potential Impacts of Climate Change

"##$!%&$!'%()*!+,#*(%-)+!

.&/*)%+)$!0#1)*(2!

.&/*)%+)$!$3+04%/)5)&(!#6!0)#04)!

7#%+(%4!8##$3&-!

AR5 WGII SPM

ALREADY OCCURRING ADAPTATION IS

Flood risk adaptation in Bangladesh (example): cyclone shelters, awareness raising, forecasting and warning

Sources: IPCC SREX (Special Report on extreme events…) and IPCC AR5, H Brammer, Clim Risk Management 2014 p.51-62

Sources: IPCC SREX (Special Report on extreme events…) and IPCC AR5, H Brammer, Clim Risk Management 2014 p.51-62

"#$%$&!'(!)#$(*%+,!-.$*+/0+(12,!3+4!5($**!67898:;!+<2.=2%>$,!$?!%#+!!5$11=,>%@!A2*+4!'>*2*%+(!B(+"2(+4,+**!B($C(211+!(=,!D@!%#+!3+4!5($**!>,9EEFG7887!

IPCC, AR5, SPM, Figure SPM.8

Regional key risks and risk reduction through adaptation

9%()*!

"##$!!+)/:*3(2!

;3+)%+)+!

WITH CONTINUED HIGH EMISSIONS

INCREASE

RISKS OF CLIMATE CHANGE

H3I;!J0KK;!A$L!MBNO9!P>C=(+!9!!

Cumulative emissions of CO2 largely determine global mean surface warming by the late 21st century and beyond.

Fig. SPM.10

© IP

CC

201

3

Fig. SPM.10

Limiting climate change will require substantial and sustained reductions of greenhouse gas emissions.

© IP

CC

201

3

IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report

The window for action is rapidly closing 65% of the carbon budget compatible with a 2°C goal is already used NB: this is with a probability greater than 66% to stay below 2°C NB: this is with a probability greater than 66% to stay below 2°C

Amount Used 1870-2011:

1900 GtCO2

Amount Remaining:

1000 GtCO2

Total Carbon Budget:

2900 GtCO2

AR5 WGI SPM NB: Emissions in 2011: 38 GtCO2/yr

HistoricalResponsibilityInterna?onalcoopera?ononclimatechangeinvolvesethicalconsidera?ons,includingequitableeffort-sharing.Theseques$onsincludehowmuchoverallmi$ga$onisneededtoavoid‘dangerousinterferencewiththeclimatesystem’,howtheeffortorcostofmi?ga?ngclimatechangeshouldbesharedamongcountriesandbetweenthepresentandfuture,howtoaccountforsuchfactorsashistoricalresponsibilityforGHGemissions,andhowtochooseamongalterna$vepoliciesformi$ga$onandadapta$on.Ethicalissuesofwell-being,jus?ce,fairness,andrightsareallinvolved.Ethicalanalysiscaniden$fythedifferentethicalprinciplesthatunderliedifferentviewpoints,anddis$nguishcorrectfromincorrectethicalreasoning.IPCC,AR5,WGIII,TS,p.39

IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report

g/6%7#7R6?&4$&C$6/A&-*9",75$5&45"4/,6?&4-$,"e+7,"-$A&@748$6!6:$C,&A$/9"$%6-"#74"$c$,"86,;#"--$&C$/9"$A7?86?&4$8&6#1$

kIlS(

m50'=(/1(i82<#'(RJT( AR5 WGIII SPM

49

Intended Nationally Determined Contributions!

!! "15&@080(7#/9(%&895.'5%$/1.#5%F'#J/#2(+='%'94'#()XNQ-(

(66% chances) Below 1.5°C (50% chances)

Pledges / INDCs (+ 2.4 — 2.7°C - median)

IPCC Baselines + 4.1 — 4.8 °C

Current Policy + 3.3 — 3.9 °C

(INDCs)

Below 2°C

50

Intended Nationally Determined Contributions!

!! n^('98008/10(256(#'6/#.(

Baseline

(INDCs)

Unconditional INDCs case

Median estimate of level constant with 2°C

Intended Nationally Determined Contributions!!! n^('98008/10(256(#'6/#.(

!! 5(c(256(f(/7((!! N)(h.Sb)'(87(%/1=8$/10(0'.(4@(0/9'(%/<1.#8'0(5#'(9'.:(

!! NM(h.Sb)'(D8.3/<.(.3/0'(%/1=8$/15&(%/1.#84<$/10(

(INDCs)

2025"2020" 2030"

INDCs: UNFCCC’s Synthesis Report!

!! o&/D(=/D1(/7('98008/10(2#/D.3(=<'(./(`^PS0*(!! g8.3(.3'(`^PS0:('98008/10(5#'(';6'%.'=(./('O<5&((kQMp(4@()X)Q(51=(TQp(4@()XQX(/7(.3'(c(%5#4/1(4<=2'.(f(081%'()XNN(.35.(D/<&=(4'(%/1080.'1.(D8.3(RRp(%351%'0(/7(q()lS(

2010"1990" 2030"

emissions growth"without INDCs"with INDCs #(blue = uncertainty)"

Source : UNFCCC, octobre 2015"http://unfccc.int/focus/indc_portal/items/9240.php"

Plan

-  Y a du boulot !

g/#F812(h#/<6(```(%/1.#84<$/1(./(.3'(`LSS(i8j3("00'009'1.(a'6/#.(

Can temperature rise still be kept below 1.5 or 2°C (over the 21st century) compared to pre-industrial ? •!Many scenario studies confirm that it is technically and economically feasible to keep the warming below 2°C, with more than 66% probability (”likely chance”). This would imply limiting atmospheric concentrations to 450 ppm CO2-eq by 2100.

•!Such scenarios for an above 66% chance of staying below 2°C imply reducing by 40 to 70% global GHG emissions compared to 2010 by mid-century, and reach zero or negative emissions by 2100.

g/#F812(h#/<6(```(%/1.#84<$/1(./(.3'(`LSS(i8j3("00'009'1.(a'6/#.(

Can temperature rise still be kept below 1.5 or 2°C (over the 21st century) compared to pre-industrial ? •!These scenarios are characterized by rapid improvements of energy efficiency and a near quadrupling of the share of low-carbon energy supply (renewables, nuclear, fossil and bioenergy with CCS), so that it reaches 60% by 2050.

•!Keeping global temperature increase below 1.5°C would require even lower atmospheric concentrations (<430 ppm CO2eq) to have a little more than 50% chance. There are not many scenario studies available that can deliver such results, requiring even faster reductions in the medium term, indicating how difficult this is.

IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report

Mitigation Measures

More efficient use of energy

Greater use of low-carbon and no-carbon energy - Many of these technologies exist today - But worldwide investment in research in support of GHG mitigation is small…

Improved carbon sinks - Reduced deforestation and improved forest management

and planting of new forests - Bio-energy with carbon capture and storage

Lifestyle and behavioural changes AR5 WGIII SPM

•  Mitigation requires major technological and institutional changes including the upscaling of low- and zero carbon energy (quadrupling from 2010 to 2050 for the scenario limiting warming below 2°C)

All sectors and regions have the potential to contribute by 2030

Note: estimates do not include non-technical options, such as lifestyle changes.

(avoided emissions: the higher, the better)

IPCC AR4 (2007)

•  Substantial reductions in emissions would require large changes in investment patterns e.g., from 2010 to 2029, in billions US dollars/year: (mean numbers rounded, IPCC AR5 WGIII Fig SPM 9)

•  energy efficiency: +330 •  renewables: + 90 •  power plants w/ CCS: + 40 •  nuclear: + 40 •  power plants w/o CCS: - 60 •  fossil fuel extraction: - 120

g/#F812(h#/<6(```(%/1.#84<$/1(./(.3'(`LSS(i8j3("00'009'1.(a'6/#.(g/#F812(h#/<6(```(%/1.#84<$/1(./(.3'(`LSS(i8j3("00'009'1.(a'6/#.

h"#6:748$6;;7?&46#$A7?86?&4$/&$'YZY$!7##$-+%-/64?6##:$745,"6-"$/9"$596##"48"-$6--&576/";$!7/9$#7A7?48$

!6,A748$&@",$/9"$'0-/$5"4/+,:$/&$%"#&!$'()$,"#6?@"$/&$*,"I

74;+-/,76#$#"@"#-1$$$

NB: Ambition before 2020 is essential as well (lock-in &

entrainment effects)

Mitigation can result in large co-benefits for human health and other societal goals.

IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report

The Choices Humanity Makes Will Create Different Outcomes (and affect prospects for effective adaptation)

With substantial mitigation

Without additional mitigation

Change in average surface temperature (1986–2005 to 2081–2100) AR5 WGI SPM

The Hidden IPCC Message:

•  If it’s possible and not enough

happens, what is lacking? • Political will, at the appropriate

scale

>+%#7i$59"R$h"$j&"5B$-+*i,7"+,K$&5/&%,"$'Y02$j,&59ia$0W$"+,&-$EI%&&Ba$0Z$"+,&-$

>7",$k"##7486K$'Y00a$]&"R&$

B#7A66/@",64;",748$K$l"7/"4K$C6%"#-$"4$&*"4$@,68"4K$S7/8"@",7J$

j6#64-1(

Ëmîm7

<o

z.

.:

m>

Œw

î

zæäæ,

zæa

ä“Es.

23E

m=_._c_=_n._œ>

L‘3} :225...

.52.,g?‘Il;

..

.g

z_

än

_z

<ä

>

242.:

Ï.

Jean-Pascal van Ypersele (vanyp@climate.be)

Useful links: !! www.ipcc.ch : IPCC (reports and videos) !! www.climate.be/vanyp : my slides and other

documents !! www.skepticalscience.com: excellent

responses to contrarians arguments !! On Twitter: @JPvanYpersele and @IPCC_CH