LCS September 2021 Economic Indicators 092321
Transcript of LCS September 2021 Economic Indicators 092321
Economic Outlook and Economic Trendsto Date During the COVID-19 Pandemic
Presentation to the Economic Recoveryand Relief Cash Fund Task Force Committee
September 24, 2021
September 2021 Legislative Council Staff
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The economy continues to recover, with consumeractivity driving growth
Real U.S. Gross Domestic ProductDollars in Trillions
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and Legislative Council Staff September 2021 projections.Real GDP is inflation-adjusted to chained 2012 levels and shown at seasonally adjusted annualized rates.
2020 : -3.4%2021 Forecast: +5.7%
2008: -0.1%2009: -2.5%
We are here
Projectedgrowth
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Retail sales at restaurants and hotels exceedpre-pandemic levels for the first time in June 2021
Source: Colorado Department of Revenue.
Colorado Retail SalesIndex January 2020 = 100
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Food & Beverage (at home)
Motor Vehicles & PartsTotal Retail SalesNonstore Retailers
AccommodationRestaurants & Bars
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Monthly Retail Trade & Food Services SalesDaily Consumer Spending on Retail
Spending on retail appears to slow, recedes by the endof August for restaurants, hotels, and entertainmentColorado Monthly Retail Sales & Daily Consumer SpendingPercent Change from January 2020
Source: Colorado Department of Revenue. Affinity via Opportunity Insights, Economic Tracker.OpenTable.
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Seated Diners
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Residential
Trips for retail & recreation dip in August, time spent athome remains elevatedColorado Daily Trips & Average Hours Spent at HomePercent Change from January 2020
Source: Google COVID-19 Community Mobility. Data represents seven-day moving average.
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DIA TrafficU.S. TrafficU.S. Daily TSA Travelers
Leisure & hospitality sector still challenged in part bylower travel and tourist activityMonthly Domestic Passenger Traffic and Daily TSA Traveler ThroughputPercent change from 2019 levels
Source: U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics; Transportation Security Administration (TSA).TSA data represents 7-day averages.
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Colorado has regained 78.1 percent of jobs lost sincethe pandemic began, with a slowing recovery in August
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Data are seasonally adjusted.
Change in Colorado EmploymentThousands of Jobs
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Monthly Gain or Loss
Change Relative toFebruary 2020
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Colorado’s unemployment rate dropped below6 percent in August
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Data are seasonally adjusted.
Unemployment rates
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5.9%5.2%
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U.S.
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Enhanced Federal Unemployment Benefits Ended inSeptember
Source: Colorado Department of Labor and Employment
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Accommodation & Food ServicesRetail TradeHealth Care & Social AssistanceArts, Entertainment & RecreationOther ServicesAdministrative & Support ServicesLocal GovernmentManufacturingConstructionEducational ServicesProfessional, Scientific & Technical ServicesReal EstateWholesale TradeTransportation & UtilitiesInformationMining & LoggingManagement of Companies & EnterprisesState GovernmentFinance & InsuranceFederal Government
Accommodation & food services leads job gains in 2021,still down 25,200 jobs
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Data are seasonally adjusted.
Thousands of Job Losses
Job LossesFebruary 2020 to
April 2020
Job LossesFebruary 2020 to
August 2021
Jobs regained April2020 to August 2021
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Factors Differ for Industries Lagging In Jobs Recovery
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Leisure & Hospitality
Job Openings since January 2020January 2020 = 100
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS). Seasonally adjusted. Data throughJuly 2021.
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Job Openings: Total Nonfarm
Hires: Total Nonfarm
Job openings surpass unemployed, outpace hiringactivity
U.S. Unemployment, Job Openings, and HiresThousands
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey (CPS) and Job Openings and Labor TurnoverSurvey (JOLTS). Seasonally adjusted. Data through July 2021.
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Employment recovery varies by region
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, CES (establishment survey). Seasonally adjusted. Data through June 2021.
Employment Growth by Region since January 2020January 2020 = 100
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ColoradoFort CollinsU.S.
Colorado Springs
Boulder
Pueblo
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The gap between low- and high-wage workerspersists
Source: Opportunity Insights. More interactive charts available: www.tracktherecovery.org
Percent change in Colorado employment since January 2020
High Income
Middle Income
Low Income
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-0.5%
-23.4%
2020 2021
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Energy prices continue to rise as travel resumes andunseasonably hot weather persists
Source: Energy Information Administration (weekly average prices).
West Texas IntermediateCrude Oil PriceDollars per Barrel
Henry HubNatural Gas Price
Dollars per Mcf
$4.06
$72.75
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Crude oil production has stabilized at 2018 levels
Source: Energy Information Administration (production shown as three-month moving averages).
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New drilling activity is showing signs of life as pricesincrease
Source: Baker Hughes.
U.S. Active Drilling Rig Counts Colorado Rig Counts
Oil & GasCrude Oil
Natural Gas
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Declining transfer payments drag on personal income
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis with Legislative Council Staff calculations.Data shown as seasonally adjusted annual rates and are not adjusted for inflation.
U.S. Personal Income and Its ContributionsContributions to Percent Change, Year-over-Year
Transfer Payments
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I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Personal Income
Social Insurance Contributions
Dividends, Interest & Rent
Proprietors' Income
Wages & Salaries
Employer Contributions
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Inflationary pressure continues in some sectors
U.S. City Average CPI-U InflationYear-over-Year Change in Prices Selected Components, August 2021
Headline*
Core**4.0%
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.Inflation is calculated as the growth in urban area prices in a given period relative to the same period in the prior year.*Headline inflation includes all products and services. **Core inflation excludes food and energy prices.
5.2%
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17.6%
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HeadlineCore
EnergyFood
HousingApparel
TransportationMedical Care
RecreationEducation
Other
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Home prices accelerated during the pandemic but areexpected to level off some in the years ahead
Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA). MSA = Metropolitan Statistical Area.
FHFA All Transactions Home Price IndexIndex 100 = 2012Q2 (trough)
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220 Colorado Springs MSAPueblo MSAGrand Junction MSAColoradoUnited States
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Course of the pandemic reemerges as key risk
• Ongoing uncertainty from the course of the COVID-19pandemic and vaccine rollout, particularly with wave of Deltavariant
• Downside: Continued supply and demand mismatches, waningfiscal stimulus, inflation, longer term economic “scarring”
• Upside: Passage of federal infrastructure spending package,with positive consequences for spending, employment,incomes, and tax revenues
• Near-term risks appear weighted to the downside
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Questions?
David HansenSenior Economist • Legislative Council [email protected] • 303-866-2633
www.leg.colorado.gov/lcs