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Adaptation Knowledge Day 5: Climate Change Adaptation GapsBonn Gustav-Stresemann-Institut 9 June 2014

Knowledge gaps Challenges for adaptation in agriculture

Alexandre Meybeck, FAO1

What effects of climate change on these ?Pollinators

80% of flowering plant species are highly dependent on animal vectors for successful reproduction

The dependence of ecosystems on animal pollinators is even stronger in the tropics than the global average: less than 3% of all tropical lowland plants rely on wind for pollination. In the tropical forests of Central America, insects may be responsible for 95 percent of the pollination of canopy trees, and vertebrates (bats and a diversity of other taxa) may pollinate 20 to 25 percent of the subcanopy and understory plants, and insects a further 50 percent

3Rift Valley Fever (RVF)Impact of climate change

FloodsHatching of aedes eggsHigh temperaturesIncrease feeding frequencyIncrease egg productionDecrease the duration of development cycleMosquito density increaseCombining biophysical and socioeconomic futuresWith high population growth and low income growth avrage kilocalorie availability declines in al regions by 2050.CC increases the number of malnourished children by about 10% as compared to no CC.Trade flow changes.Models do not take into account effects of increased variability and extreme events; nor of adaptation.(HLPE 2012)

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Systemsat different scalesGitz & Meybeck 2012Increasing the general resilience of food systemsConsider adaptation to CC as part of the broader need to build a more resilient food systemIn the perspective of having to produce more foodConsider the needs and rights of farmersProtect vulnerable groups and communities from major price swingsLack of sustainability in food production is a key threat to resilience(HLPE 2012)Building adaptive capacity to changes: address uncertaintyAnimal genetics

Diversification

Genetic resourcesLack of data, knowledge and accuracy of climate change models make it difficult to identify location specific changes in climate and appropriate adaptation actions.

Need to address present risks and vulnerabilities and restore the natural resource base and ecosystem services on which the agriculture and other sectors depend

Rural communities with access to knowledge and climate information services can unlock their potential to climate changeAccess to knowledge is key for farmers, fishers and forestersAgriculture, forestry, fisheries and aquaculture production tends to be very context-specific and the choice of adaptation options will depend on the conditions under which they will be applied. Large-scale approaches which do not consider local environmental, social and economic contexts may lead to mal-adaptation or have other negative tradeoffs. The lack of data, knowledge and accuracy of climate change models make it difficult to ascertain what location specific changes in climate will occur and which adaptation actions are appropriate.

However, although there may be uncertainty on future changes in climate, action needs to be initiated and should begin by addressing present risks and vulnerabilities and restoring the natural resource base and ecosystem services on which the agriculture and other sectors depend. The adoption of no regret actions can bring immediate food security benefits as well as contribute to long-term resilience to communities, landscapes and infrastructures. Adaptation within the agricultural sector is therefore an important means to also address national development objectives. 10Climate information servicesDecision tools for prioritizing investment options Risk management Early warning systems Low emissions development pathways

Type of support to practitioners needed

The Knowledge Action Group of the Global Alliance on Climate-Smart Agriculture (CSA) is co-led by FAO and CGIAR/CCAFS.An open consultation to identify the major knowledge priorities and key areas of work was held between 8th-29th April 2014.491 responses were received.

These are the results related to the type of support to practitioners needed

11Agricultural sector adaptation: country experiences

Building the evidence base: what are the recent observable changes to climate?Use rainfall and temperature data to identify change in rain onset; peak temperaturesLink to household level data to explore hoe farmers respondedCC changed had major impact on adoption of conservation agricultureManage risksMonitoringVulnerability assessmentIdentification of (ex-ante) damage reduction measures Early actionReparation of losses to productive assets

Climate change will add more risks to production and aggravate existing risks, especially for the more vulnerable.

Therefore it is even more necessary to establish everywhere and for every specific risk, whether climate, animal or plant diseases or even economic, proper tools to manage them.

To limit losses ex ante by:monitoringAssessing vulnerabilityidentification of (ex-ante) damage reduction measures Action at the earliest stage of the event

Quick reparation of losses to productive assets can avoid long term consequences.

13Information dissemination: priority actionsSeasonal forecasts: Extended coverage, better translation, and prompt linking of seasonal forecast info to key outlets (youth, extension, womens groups, etc.)Extension: More attention/financing/innovation in extension role in information dissemination to support agricultural technology and use of ICTCrowd sourcing to improve data sources (e.g. IIASA global cropland map)Enhancing farmer to farmer informationFlows particularly in context of adaptation (e.g. varietal adaptation; indigenous practices)

14Methods and tools for CCA: FAOs contributionThrough its framework programme for Climate Change Adaptation (FAO-Adapt) FAO is committed to support countries in their National Adaptation Plans (NAPs) within the agricultural sectors.

FAO provides a number of useful methods and tools for undertaking various assessments and monitoring which provide fundamental information for planning of CCA practices.

15Local Climate Estimate ToolUpdated version of FAOCLIM database of almost 30 000 stations worldwide

The Local Climate Estimate Tool (New_locClim), is a software program and database, provides estimates of average climatic conditions at any location on earth based on the FAOCLIM database. The programme can create climatic maps, extract data in various formats from the database for further processing and can display graphs showing the annual cycle of monthly climate and the crop calendar. The tool provides growing season characteristics based on a comparison of rainfall and potential evapotranspiration and estimates of monthly, 10-day and daily values of common climate variables. The programme includes the current updated version of the FAOCLIM database of almost 30 000 stations worldwide, but users can also process their own data and prepare maps at any spatial resolution. Computer application programs (in Microsoft Excel) are included in the CD-ROM to help simplify complex calculations.Access and download the tool at: www.fao.org/nr/climpag/data_5_en.asp

16COYOTE: CrOp Yield Estimation- An operational crop monitoring and forecasting system

- Can be tailored to suit countries specific requirements

COYOTE: Crop monitoring and yield forecasting for early warning systemsThe CM Box (Crop Monitoring Box) is a toolbox for agrometeorological crop monitoring and yieldforecasting. It is an automated software suite with a visual menu that offers easy access to a database that holds all the data needed to analyse the impact of weather on crops. The tool is useful for risk analysis, monitoring and forecasting crop production, which is an essential input to food security planning. The tool can compare maps of current yield expectations with historical average conditions.

The CM Box is fed in real time with weather, satellite and crop information. It generates a set of indicators that are relevant for food security. The indicators can be presented as text, maps and tables by provinces or districts. An example of a anticipated yield map is illustrated in the slide.

The CM Box is meant to offer an easy solution to rapidly setting up an operational crop monitoring and forecasting system. In the initial phase, reference data as well as real-time satellite and weather data can be provided by FAO based on international sources, but over the period, more and more national data can be used. Interested countries receive a combination of training, hardware, software customized for local use, as well as the real-time data required to operate the system in-country. The package can be tailored to suit the countries specific requirements, based on national preferences as well as available expertise, methods and data. FAO is updating the core of the CM Box developing a new tool called COYotE (CrOp Yield Estimation). Details at: www.fao.org/nr/climpag/aw_6_en.asp

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Statistical downscaling of climate scenarios over weather stations networks (AR4 and AR5 data available)Crop yield projections under climate scenarios (WABAL and AQUACROP)Simulation of the countrys hydrology and estimation of water resourcesEconomic impact and analysis of policy response at national levelMOSAICCs 4 disciplines:The models integrated in MOSAICC are organized in four main components:Climate data processing tools: statistical downscaling and interpolation tools aimed at preparing the data for the crop and the hydrology modelling toolsCrop models: simulate crop growth under climate change scenarios, using the data produced by the climate data processing toolsHydrological model: models the hydrology of river basins under climate change scenarios, using the data produced by the climate data processing toolsEconomic model: simulates the impact of yield variations due to climate change on national economies

These models are interconnected and were designed to facilitate the data flow from one to the other.

In order to facilitate integration between the models:All models and utilities are installed on a central serverAll model and utilities are connected to a single spatial database The shell transform the data (conversion, formatting, aggregation etc.) passed from model to modelThe interfaces allow the users to manage data and run experiments

The aim of MOSAICC is to assess the impacts of climate change on agriculture through modellingBased on General Circulation Models outputsCombining inter-disciplinary modelsUsed in a spatially explicit wayIn a perspective of decision support at national level

18Overcoming Barriers to Adoption for Better Project Success: The case of Zambia (EPIC project)Practices: Conservation Farming practices: minimum soil disturbance (MSD) and crop rotation(CR) MSD adoption 5-6%, significant dis-adoption: ~90% of MSD adopters Adoption intensity is significantly higher for smallholdersAdoption: Strongest determinants: Variability of rainfall, Delays in the onset of rains, Extension informationYield Impacts: Average positive impacts of modern input use are conditioned by climatic variables, whereas that of legume intercropping is robust to shocks. Timely access to fertilizer is the most robust determinant of yields and resilience. Extension information

adaptation benefits key to determining best options

Emerging Evidence: Malawi (EPIC project)Practices: improved maize varieties, inorganic and organic fertilizers (OF), legume intercropping (LI), and agro-forestry (AF) (e.g. Faidherbia albida)Adoption: Important determinants:Land tenure positively correlate with OF,LI, AFDrought proneness positively correlate with AF&LIYields: Improved seed, legume Intercropping & agro-forestry positively correlate with productivitySignificant synergies among all three practices

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20Research challenges for adaptationNeed for research, including more public research and link with privateEngage with the poor and vulnerable to address their needsResearch to consider broader objectives than yield and include resilience, stability, efficiency in the use of water, and consider neglected species Research on best agronomic practicesResearch on fisheriesMonitor and evaluate adaptation practices (HLPE 2012)

THANK YOU

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