International Migration and Economic Development

Robert E.B. Lucas

Boston University

Adult Migrants In EU-15 By region of origin (2000)

Data Source: OECD Database on Expatriates and Immigrants, 2004

W Europe

E Europe

Former SovietN & C America

S America

S Asia

E Asia

Middle E

N Africa

SS Africa

Given widening income and demographic gaps

migration pressures will continue to grow

Medium Population Growth ProjectionsAnnual Growth 2005-2050: Ages 15-29

<-1%

<0%

<1%

<2%

>2%

Pressures to emigrate often reflect

– failure to create jobs– failure to maintain security

Emigration option is a critical safety valve

Average Unemployment RatesSelect Countries of Origin: 1990-2004 (approx).

RomaniaTurkey

MoroccoAlgeria

TunisiaSuriname

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Refugees Originating Per Thousand Population (2003)

<0.1

<1

<10

>10

Despite growing economic gaps,migration has grown less quickly

than trade and financial flows

1960 1970 1980 1990 20000

1

2

3

4

5

6

7E

xpor

ts (

Trill

ion

US

200

0$)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Mig

rant

s (1

00 M

illio

n)

Global volume of exports

Global stock of migrants

Migration is not a substitute for development

Some risk of long-term

dependence on migration

Migrants are the big winnersDespite commercialization of migration

These gains to migrants

are a form of development

But migration can have important impacts on development at home

Not all impacts are positive

Poverty alleviation greatestfrom low-skill

circular migration

• High levels of remittances reach poor

• Low skill workers at home benefit

Reported Remittances Sent per Migrant (2000)

Source: IMF Balance of Payments Statistics and UN Trends in Migrant Stock

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

US

$

But migration of low skilled workers to OECD

is largely from neighboring countries

Low-Skill Migration Rates to OECD

<1%<2%<3%<5%<10%>10%

Low Education Adult Migrants In EU-15 By region of origin (2000)

W Europe

Americas

E EuropeFormer Soviet

S Asia

E Asia

W Asia

N Africa

SS Africa

Data Source: OECD Database on Expatriates and Immigrants, 2004

South-South Migration Dominates

For Low Skill Workers From Low Income Countries

Most is irregular

Calls for bilateral/regional agreements

High Skill Migration to OECD Growing RapidlyPercent of tertiary educated population abroad in OECD: 2000

<2%<5%<10%<20%>20%

Source: Mapped from Docquier and Marfouk (2005)

Tertiary Educated, Non-OECD Adults In EU-15 By region of origin (2000)

Data Source: OECD Database on Expatriates and Immigrants, 2004

Europe

Former Soviet

C America

S America

S AsiaE Asia

Middle E

N Africa

SS Africa

Low

MiddleHigh

Low MiddleHigh

Europe America0

5

10

15M

illio

ns

Non-OECD

OECD origin

High Skill Migration to N America DominatesExpatriates in OECD Countries: 2000

Distribution of Tertiary Educated Population From E Europe in OECD: 2000

RussiaLatvia

MoldovaUkraine

HungaryPoland

RomaniaBelarusCroatia

Czech RepublicLithuania

AlbaniaSlovenia

EstoniaBosnia and Herzegovi

BulgariaSlovakia

Serbia and MontenegrMacedonia

0 20 40 60 80 100

Percent

Other EuropeEU15 N America

Migration policies of high income countries

• Not part of coherent development strategy

• Competition to attract highly skilled (students)

• Yet protect low skill sectors (agriculture)

Low-Skill Temporary Migration Schemes Present a Dilemma

• Integration and rights of migrants

Family separation & social effects

• Managing returnTransferable pension schemes

Mode 4 and contracting

Cost of re-entry (irregulars)