IIASA

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

RAINS-Asia:

A Tool for Optimization Analysis of the Acidification Problem in Asia

while Taking into Account the Potential for Use of Renewable Energy

M. Amann, J. Cofala, F. Gyarfas, W. Schöpp (IIASA) C. Boudri, L. Hordijk, C. Kroeze (Wageningen University, NL)

Li Junfen, Dai Lin (Energy Research Institute, Beijing) L. Srivastava, T.S. Panwar (Tata Energy Research Institute, Delhi)

IIASA

The model: RAINSdeveloped by IIASA

Energy/agriculture projections

Emissions

Emission control options

Atmospheric dispersion

Environmental impactsEnvironmental targets

Costs

IIASA

Optimization based upon ...

• Some sources are more strongly linked than others via the atmosphere to sensitive receptors (as indicated by the source-receptor relationships)

• Some sources are cheaper to control than others(as indicated by the cost curves)

IIASA

Optimization in RAINS

Energy/agriculture projections

Emissions

Emission control options

Atmospheric dispersion

Environmental impactsEnvironmental targets

Costs OPTIMIZATION

IIASA

Emission abatement cost curves

• Estimate marginal costs for all available emission

control options

• Rank available options according to their

marginal cost

• Select an energy projection, calculate

uncontrolled (or current legislation) emissions

• List emission reduction potentials and costs,

starting from the ‘uncontrolled’ case

IIASA

An example cost curve for SO2

Low sulfur coal

1 % S heavy fuel oil

FGD - baseload

power plants

FGDoil fired

power plants

0.2 % S diesel oil

FGD large industrial

boilers

0.6 % S heavy fuel oil

FGD small industrial

boilers

0.01 % Sdiesel oil

Remaining measures

Present legislation

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

0 50 100 150 200 250 300

Remaining emissions (kt SO2)

Ma

rgin

al

co

sts

(E

UR

O/t

on

SO 2

re

mo

ve

d)

IIASA

Optimization in RAINS: A systematic search for cost-effective solutions

Goal (objective) of the optimization:

For a given set of environmental targets (e.g., maximum S deposition) find the least-cost set of measures

Result (solution):

Least-cost set of emission controls/emission ceilings by

– region/province– economic sector– LPS/area source

IIASA

Objective function:

Minimize total SO2 control costs in the whole region/country

subject to:

so that user-specified constraints/limits on sulfur exposure/ deposition are met in the whole region

Decision variables/outcome:

the SO2 emission controls for each source (province/LPS) within the bounds given by the cost curves or imposed by the user

Optimization in RAINS: A mathematical optimization problem

IIASA

Optimization in RAINS: The mathematical formulation

ici min

subject to

ci = fi(ei)

i(ei.tij)+bgj dj

c …... control costs

i …... source region

j …... receptor point

ei …... SO2 emissions

tij …... atmospheric

dispersion coefficient

bgj …. background deposition

dj …... deposition target

IIASA

Deposition targets dij

Deposition targets

• ‘drive’ the optimization• ‘policy’ choice of the user• can be specified for each grid cell

IIASA

Example targets for the optimization

In the year 2020Case A:

limit total emissions in each region to the levels of 2000/1995/1990

Case B:limit sulfur deposition in each grid cell to the levels experienced in 2000/1995/1990

Case C:limit (harmful) excess sulfur deposition in each grid cell to the levels experienced in 2000/1995/1990

IIASA

Cost-savings through targeted (optimized) emission controls

14

19

24

29

34

39

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Unprotected ecosystems (million hectares)

Em

issi

on

co

ntr

ol c

ost

s (b

illio

n $

)

Return to emissions

Return to deposition

Return to excess deposition

19901995

2000

2020 with current legislation

IIASA

Cost savings through renewable energy(for Case B)

2020 with current legislation

Dep 2000

Dep 1995

Dep 1990

Dep 2000

Dep 1995

Dep 1990

0

10

20

30

40

50

20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70

Remaining SO2 emissions

Co

ntr

ol c

ost

s (b

illio

n $

)

Return to S deposition Return to S deposition with renewable energy

IIASA

Conclusions

• RAINS-Asia optimization tool now available

• Enables systematic search for cost-effective

emission controls to achieve user-defined

environmental targets

• Optimized solutions can cut costs by 50%

while maintaining same environmental benefits

• Renewable energy offers additional cost-saving

potential