IIASA

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

Multi-pollutant / multi-effects:

Cost-effectiveness Analysis

for the 2nd NOx Protocol

IIASA

A multi-pollutant/multi-effect problem

SO2 NOx NH3 VOC

Acidification

Eutrophication

Ground-levelozone

IIASA

Emission densities in 1990

SO2

NOx

IIASA

Emission densities in 1990

VOC

NH3

IIASA

Environmental targets

In the year 2010, reduce

• health-relevant excess ozone exposure by 2/3,

• the area of ecosystems not protected against acidification by 1/2,

• vegetation-relevant excess ozone exposure by 1/3,

• excess nitrogen deposition (eutrophication) by 60%.

Additional targets for ‘hot-spots’

IIASA

The model: RAINS

Energy/agriculture projections

Emissions

Emission control options

Atmospheric dispersion

Environmental impactsEnvironmental targets

Costs OPTIMIZATION

IIASA

Input assumptions

Energy projections: ‘Pre-Kyoto’,

– EU: 10 national, 5 DG-XVII ‘Business as usual’, consistent with EU NEC scenarios

– Non-EU: National projections via UN reporting

Agricultural projections:

– Reviewed by Member States

IIASA

Input data

Emission inventories: CORINAIR’90/94

Cost curves:Developed by IIASA, reviewed by countries

Atmospheric dispersion characteristics: EMEP model results

Critical loads/levels: National data based on common methodology, collected and reviewed by CCE

IIASA

Emission control optionsSO2

Low sulfur coal, coke

Low sulfur heavy fuel oil

Low sulfur gas oil

Limestone injection/Fluidized bed combustion

Flue gas desulfurization (FGD)

Advanced flue gas desulfurization

IIASA

Emission control optionsNOx - Stationary sources

Combustion modifications - Low NOx burners, exhaust gas re-circulation, staged combustion, etc.

Selective catalytic reduction (SCR) for large boilers

Non-selective catalytic reduction (SNCR) for medium and large boilers

Control of industrial process emissions

IIASA

Emission control optionsTransport sector

Gasoline carsEuro-III, Euro-IV (post 2005 standards), small carbon canisters

Diesel cars Euro-III, Euro-IV (post 2005 standards)

Diesel heavy duty vehiclesEuro-III, Euro-IV (post 2005 standards)

Two-stroke enginesOxidation catalysts

Off-road machineryStandards equivalent to Euro-III, Euro-IV

IIASA

Emission control optionsVOC Stationary sources (1)

Dry cleaning: Good housekeeping and adsorption, closed circuit machines

Degreasing: Primary measures, carbon adsorption, conveyored degreaser with integrated adsorption, water based systems, low temperature plasma

Domestic solvents: Reformulation

Non-industrial paint use: Low solvent paints

Industrial paint use: Water based-, high solid-, powder- paints, application modifications, adsorption, incineration

IIASA

Emission control optionsVOC Stationary sources (2)

Production of rubber, paint, ink, etc.: Substitution, solvent plans , ‘end-of-pipe’

Application of glues, adhesives (in industry): Housekeeping, substitution, incineration

Printing: Housekeeping, water-based ink, ‘end-of-pipe’

Wood preservation: Double vacuum impregnation, dryer enclosure, ‘end-of-pipe’

Refineries, chemical industry: Regular inspection & maintenance, internal floating covers, vapor recovery

Fuel storage and distribution: Internal floating covers, Stage I, Stage II

IIASA

Emission control optionsNH3

Low nitrogen feed - multi-phase, synthetic amino acids

Bio-filtration - bio scrubbers

Animal house adaptation - improved design, floor modifications, low NH3 poultry housing, etc.

Covered outdoor storage of manure - rigid lids, floating covers

Low ammonia application techniques - immediate incorporation, deep and shallow injection, etc.

Fertilizers - urea substitution

IIASA

The starting point (REF)

National legislation of countries

+ for EU Member States: present EU legislation and recent Commission proposals/Council agreements– Auto-Oil 1 – Solvents Directive – Sulfur in liquid fuels Directive – Off-road machinery Directive – IPPC – Heavy duty vehicles post-2005 standards– LCP-II, etc.

IIASA

Results: The G5/2 scenario

Emission reductions(compared to 1990)

Control costs(billion EURO/yr)

REF G5/2 REF G5/2

SO2 -60% -70% 14.0 +1.8

NOx -35% -42%

VOC -37% -45%52.6 +3.3

NH3 -12% -24% 0.7 +3.4

Total 67.3 +8.5

IIASA

Country results: G5/2

SO2 NOx VOC NH3

REF G5/2 REF G5/2 REF G5/2 REF G5/2kt Change kt Change kt Change kt Change kt Change kt Change kt Change kt Change

Austria 42 -55% 42 -55% 110 -43% 85 -56% 206 -41% 151 -57% 67 -13% 65 -16%Belgium 208 -38% 78 -77% 199 -43% 127 -64% 195 -48% 102 -73% 96 -1% 57 -41%Denmark 90 -51% 48 -74% 131 -52% 118 -57% 86 -53% 86 -53% 72 -6% 69 -10%Finland 116 -50% 116 -50% 159 -42% 159 -42% 111 -48% 111 -48% 31 -23% 31 -23%France 489 -61% 257 -79% 1017 -46% 699 -63% 1256 -48% 1036 -57% 798 -1% 649 -19%Germany 660 -88% 488 -91% 1256 -53% 1040 -61% 1100 -65% 891 -71% 571 -25% 412 -46%Greece 562 12% 562 12% 344 0% 344 0% 268 -20% 262 -22% 74 -8% 73 -9%Ireland 70 -61% 37 -79% 73 -35% 58 -49% 55 -50% 55 -50% 126 -1% 116 -9%Italy 593 -65% 316 -81% 1166 -43% 846 -58% 1166 -43% 1082 -47% 416 -10% 356 -23%Luxembourg 4 -71% 4 -71% 10 -55% 9 -59% 7 -63% 7 -63% 7 0% 7 0%Netherlands 74 -63% 53 -74% 304 -44% 215 -60% 237 -52% 161 -67% 136 -42% 106 -55%Portugal 146 -49% 146 -49% 181 -13% 148 -29% 144 -32% 102 -52% 67 -6% 65 -8%Spain 793 -64% 760 -65% 866 -25% 736 -37% 669 -34% 648 -36% 353 0% 353 0%Sweden 67 -44% 67 -44% 195 -42% 155 -54% 283 -42% 254 -48% 48 -21% 48 -21%UK 980 -74% 556 -85% 1186 -58% 1163 -59% 1351 -49% 1124 -58% 297 -10% 264 -20%EU-15 4894 -70% 3529 -78% 7197 -46% 5901 -55% 7133 -49% 6073 -57% 3159 -12% 2671 -25%

Albania 55 -24% 55 -24% 36 50% 36 50% 41 32% 41 32% 35 9% 32 0%Belarus 494 -41% 494 -41% 316 -21% 290 -28% 309 -17% 298 -20% 163 -26% 140 -36%Bosnia-H 415 -15% 313 -36% 60 -25% 51 -36% 48 -6% 48 -6% 23 -26% 22 -29%Bulgaria 846 -54% 355 -81% 297 -16% 261 -26% 190 -3% 189 -3% 126 -11% 108 -23%Croatia 70 -61% 31 -83% 91 11% 65 -21% 111 8% 99 -3% 37 -8% 27 -33%Czech Rep. 366 -80% 279 -85% 296 -46% 175 -68% 304 -31% 222 -50% 108 1% 101 -6%Estonia 175 -36% 175 -36% 73 -13% 73 -13% 49 8% 49 8% 29 0% 29 0%Hungary 546 -40% 296 -68% 198 -10% 118 -46% 160 -21% 153 -25% 137 14% 73 -39%Latvia 104 -14% 104 -14% 118 1% 118 1% 56 -10% 56 -10% 35 -19% 35 -19%Lithuania 107 -50% 107 -50% 138 -10% 134 -12% 105 -6% 105 -6% 81 1% 72 -10%Norway 33 -37% 22 -58% 183 -17% 148 -33% 195 -34% 195 -34% 21 -9% 21 -9%Poland 1525 -49% 736 -75% 879 -28% 646 -47% 807 1% 513 -36% 541 7% 474 -6%R.of Moldova 117 -41% 38 -81% 66 -24% 66 -24% 42 -16% 42 -16% 48 2% 46 -2%Romania 594 -55% 205 -85% 458 -12% 306 -41% 504 0% 499 -1% 304 4% 227 -22%Russia 2344 -53% 2197 -56% 2798 -20% 2762 -21% 2786 -21% 2706 -24% 894 -30% 894 -30%Slovakia 137 -75% 95 -83% 132 -40% 101 -54% 140 -7% 139 -8% 47 -22% 34 -43%Slovenia 76 -62% 58 -71% 36 -40% 32 -47% 40 -27% 40 -27% 21 -9% 15 -35%Switzerland 36 -16% 36 -16% 85 -48% 81 -50% 145 -48% 145 -48% 66 -8% 63 -13%FYR of Maced. 81 -24% 81 -24% 29 -26% 29 -26% 19 1% 19 1% 16 -6% 15 -12%Ukraine 1488 -60% 1377 -63% 1433 -24% 1206 -36% 851 -27% 799 -31% 649 -11% 589 -19%Yugoslavia 269 -54% 242 -59% 152 -28% 134 -36% 139 -2% 139 -2% 82 -9% 67 -26%Non-EU 9877 -54% 7295 -66% 7873 -23% 6832 -33% 7042 -18% 6497 -25% 3462 -13% 3084 -23%

Total 14771 -61% 10824 -71% 15070 -36% 12733 -46% 14175 -37% 12570 -44% 6621 -12% 5755 -24%

IIASA

Main measuresin EU countries

SO2: Control of existing boilers, low sulfur fuels

NOx: Control of existing boilers, small sources, off-road machinery

VOC: Low solvent paints, application of glues and adhesives, Stage II for gasoline stations

NH3: Urea substitution, low emission animal houses, low ammonia application techniques

IIASA

Modified ambition levelsAcidification

REF

1990

G5/1G5/2

G5/3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Unprotected hectares (million ha)

Co

sts

ab

ov

e R

EF

(B

illi

on

EU

RO

/yr)

IIASA

Modified ambition levelsPopulation exposure index

REF

1990

G5/1

G5/2

G5/3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600

Population exposure index (million persons.ppm.hours)

Co

sts

ab

ov

e R

EF

(B

illi

on

EU

RO

/yr)

IIASA

Per-capita costsEU countries, EU Scenario H1

EU-15

UK

Sweden

SpainPortugal

Netherlands

Luxembourg

ItalyIreland

Greece

Germany

FranceFinland

Denmark

Belgium

Austria

0

100

200

300

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5

Average ozone population exposure index of REF(ppm.h)

Tota

l em

issi

on

co

ntr

ol c

ost

s/ca

pit

a (E

UR

O/y

r)

H1

REF

IIASA

Uncertainty treatment

• Standard uncertainty analysis is time consuming

• Potential influence of uncertainties minimized by– Explicit model confidence intervals – Integral functions for environmental exposure – Compensation mechanism for targets– Excluding extreme situations– Use of ‘gap closure’ targets (relative improvements)

• Identification of potential biases

IIASA

Potential biases (1)

• Critical loads could be stricter ...

– Dynamic effects ignored

– Limited spatial resolution

• Critical levels for vegetation (ozone) could be too strict ...

– Level 2 approach

• Population exposure (ozone) …

– overestimated in city centers

– underestimated in suburbs

IIASA

Potential biases (2)

• Constant background ozone ….

– ignores decreasing emissions in Europe and N. America

– ignores increasing emissions in Asia

• Emission control costs too high …

– ‘Pre-Kyoto’ energy projections

– Add-on technologies only

• Emission control potential too small …

– Technological progress ignored

– No structural changes considered

IIASA

Sensitivity analyses

‘Post-Kyoto’ energy projections

‘Low NH3’ agriculture

‘High SO2’ energy scenario

‘High NH3’ agriculture

IIASA

Sensitivity analysis - resultsVariations in SO2 reductions

-100%

-80%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

Au

stri

a

Be

lgiu

m

De

nm

ark

Fin

lan

d

Fra

nce

Ge

rma

ny

Gre

ece

Ire

lan

d

Ita

ly

Lu

xem

bo

urg

Ne

the

rla

nd

s

Po

rtu

ga

l

Sp

ain

Sw

ed

en

UK

Alb

an

ia

Be

laru

s

Bo

snia

-H

Bu

lga

ria

Cro

atia

Cze

ch_

R.

Est

on

ia

Hu

ng

ary

La

tvia

Lith

ua

nia

No

rwa

y

Po

lan

d

Mo

ldo

va

Ro

ma

nia

Ru

ssia

Slo

vaki

a

Slo

ven

ia

Sw

itze

rla

nd

Ma

ced

on

ia

Ukr

ain

e

Yu

go

sla

via

Ch

an

ge

s i

n S

O 2 e

mis

sio

ns

co

mp

are

d t

o 1

99

0

REF J1 J2 Post-Kyoto J3 High SO2 J4 Low NH3 J5 High NH3

IIASA

Environmental impactsDays with ozone above WHO guideline (60 ppb)

1990

G5/2 - 2010

10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

36

0.0

0.0

1.0

5.0

10.0

25.0

50.0

100.0

U nit: %

IIASA

Environmental impacts% Ecosystems not protected against acidification

1990

G5/2 - 2010

10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

36

0.0

0.0

1.0

5.0

10.0

25.0

50.0

100.0

U nit: %

IIASA

Environmental impacts% Ecosystems not protected against eutrophication

G5/2 - 2010

1990

IIASA

Uniform or effect-based scenarios?

REF

G5/3

G5/2

G5/1

UNIFORMPER CAPITAEMISSIONS

UNIFORM% REDUCTION

0

5

10

15

20

200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600

Population exposure index (million persons.ppm.hours)

Co

sts

ab

ov

e R

EF

( Bil

lio

n E

UR

O/y

r)

IIASA

Documentation

• Methodology papers• Latest databases• All scenario analyses, interim reports to ECE

and EU• On-line model (web version)

available at

http://www.iiasa.ac.at/~rains