INTERNATIONAL FORUM OF TRAVEL AND TOURISM ADVOCATES EUROPEAN SECTION SECOND IFTTA EUROPE WORKSHOP...

INTERNATIONAL FORUM OF TRAVEL AND TOURISM ADVOCATESEUROPEAN SECTION

SECOND IFTTA EUROPE WORKSHOP UNIVERSITY OF BALEARIC ISLANDS

Palma de Mallorca, Spain, 1-3 April 2009

THE WORLD TOURISM ORGANIZATION: RESPONDING TO THE NEW CHALLENGES

IN THE GLOBAL ECONOMY

Patrice Tedjini, Chief, UNWTO Documentation Resources and Archives

INTERNATIONAL TOURISM ININTERNATIONAL TOURISM IN

2008

International Tourist Arrivals, 1995-2008*

536570

593 610633

682 682 702 692

763805

850

908924 mn

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 20072008*

mill

ion

2008: turbulence and change of trend

International Tourist Arrivals

6.9

10.5

4.9

8.5

15.3

1.8

0.1

1.6

3.64.6

11.3

5.2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

World Europe Asia and thePacific

Americas Africa Middle East

vari

atio

n ov

er p

revi

ous

year

(%)

20072008

Significant slowdown

Second half on the negativeMonthly evolution of worldwide international tourist arrivals

5.9

9.5 9.4

-0.4

8.1

1.80.6

-0.7

-2.8

-0.8

-3.0-2.3

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Jan Feb March April May June July Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov . Dec.

% c

hang

e ov

er s

ame

mon

th p

revi

ous

year

Source: World Tourism Organization

Easter effect

Europe’s Performance 2008Monthly evolution of international tourist arrivals

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008*

% c

hang

e ov

er s

ame

mon

th p

revi

ous

year


Jan-June +3%

July-Dec -3% 0%


5.46.3 6.8

5.4

17.8

-1.3-2.5 -2.8

1.1

4.05.23.4

-5

0

5

10

15

20

World Europe Asia and thePacific

Americas Africa Middle East

vari

atio

n ov

er p

revi

ous

year

(%)

Jan-JuneJuly-Dec.

Sharp reversal of trend


2.7

6.2

7.0

10.6

12.3

1.7

9.8

5.2

0.1

10.5

6.4

7.9

8.8

-2.1

-1.2

0.6

0.4

3.6

-1.5

4.3

3.2

1.2

5.9

5.3

4.1

11.3

3.5

15.3

7.9

2.6

-4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18

Northern EuropeWestern Europe

Central & Eastern EuropeSouther/Med Europe

North-East AsiaSouth-East Asia

OceaniaSouth AsiaNorth Am.Caribbean

Central Am.South Am.

North AfricaSub-saharan Afr.

Middle East

2007

2008

Varied subregional picture

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

% c

ha

ng

e o

ve

r p

rev

iou

s y

ea

r

international tourist arrivals

international tourism receipts (local currencies, constant prices)

International tourism volume and receipts:in normal times growth in receipts close to growth in arrivals

Asian financial

and economic

crisis:

expenditure

grew slower

11S, SARS, economic

downturn: receipts

more affected

INTERNATIONAL TOURISM PROSPECTSINTERNATIONAL TOURISM PROSPECTS

FOR 2009

1st half 2008

• high commodity prices• historic high oil prices• rising inflation• high interest rates• record high euro

now

• financial crisis• credit squeeze• lack of confidence• global recession• unemployment

Concerns changed…

International Tourist Arrivals, World

3.8

7.8

0.0

2.9

-1.4

10.3

5.5 5.6

6.9

1.8

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008* 2009

Cha

nge

(%)

*Preliminary results

Forecast 2009: between -2% and 0%

International Tourism2008 Forecast 2009

World 2% -2% to 0%

Europe 0% -3% to 0%

Asia and the Pacific 2% 0% to 3%

Americas 4% -1% to 2%

Africa 5% 1% to 4%

Middle East 11% 2% to 6%

When and how will recovery come…Monthly evolution of worldwide international tourist arrivals

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

2005 2006 2007 2008* 2009

% c

hang

e ov

er s

ame

mon

th p

revi

ous

year


depth?length?

In perspective…

World, Growth of Real GDP & International Tourist Arrivals

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

% c

han

ge

ov

er p

rev

iou

s y

ear

Real GDP

Tourist Arrivals

Tourism, economy and external shocks

Echo of second oil crisis / Falkland Islands (Malvinas) and Israel-Lebanon conflicts

Gulf War / disintegration of Yugoslavia

Asian Financial Crisis

11S Iraq, SARS

7% a year between 2004 and 2007

As in previous crises…+ Travel closer to home, including domestic travel;+ Visiting friends and relatives (VFR), repeat visitors,

special interest and independent travellers - Length of stay and expenditure+ Value for money destinations (exchange rates) + Late booking+ Capacity cuts+ Public and private sectors cooperation

UNWTO RESPONSE TO THE CRISIS

A ROADMAP FOR RECOVERY

UNWTO RESPONSE TO THE CRISIS

A ROADMAP FOR RECOVERY

UNWTO TOURISM RESILIENCECOMMITTEE (TRC)

Created by the 84th session of the UNWTO Executive Council - October 2008

Open to all UNWTO Full and Affiliate

Members and invited key players in the tourism sector


OBJECTIVES Main objective

- To create a platform for Members to receive and share information on the current economic downturn and its impact on the tourism sector

Specific objectives - Collect and analyze economic and industry data to promote real time market monitoring

- Encourage the exchange of information, experience, cooperation and good practice regarding response measures


FUNCTIONING TRC meets in its full constituency

TRC has a core working group composed of - ten UNWTO Full Members- six UNWTO Affiliate Members- twelve invited stakeholders (of which some are UNWTO

Affiliate Members)

The Working Group aims at. Giving guidance to the work of the TRC. Contributing to the documents/reports to prepare for the

full meetings of the TRC


MARKET MONITORING

Online market information system exclusive for Members

Latest tourism results – UNWTO World Tourism Barometer Updates

Source markets performance and outlook (UNWTO/ VISA /AMADEUS)

Air Transport performance (Associates/BOOZ) Economic indicators for major source market


RESPONSE INFORMATION SHARING

Sharing experiences on response measures and tools

The TRC meetings Online information system Focal points Network Share results of related national and regional

events


MEETINGS

1st Meeting – FITUR – Madrid, January 2009 2nd Meeting – ITB- Berlin, March 2009 3rd Meeting – 18th Session UNWTO General

Assembly, Astana, Kazakhstan, October 2009

Thank you very muchfor your attention

INTERNATIONAL FORUM OF TRAVEL AND TOURISM ADVOCATES EUROPEAN SECTION SECOND IFTTA EUROPE WORKSHOP...

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Transcript of INTERNATIONAL FORUM OF TRAVEL AND TOURISM ADVOCATES EUROPEAN SECTION SECOND IFTTA EUROPE WORKSHOP...