International Coal Markets - Coal Research Forum · International Coal Markets World supply and...
Transcript of International Coal Markets - Coal Research Forum · International Coal Markets World supply and...
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www.coalimp.org.uk
InternationalCoal Markets
Nigel YaxleyManaging Director, CoalImp
26th November 2008
Minerals Engineering SocietyNottingham 26th November 2008
Slide 2
InternationalCoal Markets
World supply and demand
Seaborne trade
Reserves and resources
International prices
World Energy Outlook
UK coal supplies
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World Supply andDemand
Minerals Engineering SocietyNottingham 26th November 2008
Slide 4
Coal – the world’s fastestgrowing fuel
0.0
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19651967
1969
19711973
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719
791981
19831985
198719
891991
19931995
1997
19992001
20032005
2007
Mill
ion
Ton
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Oil
Equ
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Oil Coal Gas Nuclear Hydro
Source: BP Statistical Review 2008
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Minerals Engineering SocietyNottingham 26th November 2008
Slide 5
China already dominatesworld demand…
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Mill
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sCoalEquiv
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nt
China
USA
EU25
Indi
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Japa
n
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rica
Oth
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Source: IEA Coal Information 2008
World Coal Consumption2007 (including lignite)
Minerals Engineering SocietyNottingham 26th November 2008
Slide 6
…and most of the world’scoal is produced ‘at home’
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Mill
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Tonnes
China
USA
India
Australia
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hAfri
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nesia
Poland
Kaza
khst
an
Colo
mbia
Ukraine
Othe
rs
Seab
orne
Trad
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Global Hard CoalProduction in 2007
Source: IEA Coal Information 2008
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Minerals Engineering SocietyNottingham 26th November 2008
Slide 7
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2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
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OthersUkraineColombiaKazakhstanPolandIndonesiaRussiaSouth AfricaAustraliaIndiaUnited StatesPR of China
China also drives hardcoal production growth…
Source: IEA Coal Information 2008
Minerals Engineering SocietyNottingham 26th November 2008
Slide 8
…but second tier producersalso show interesting trends
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2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
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IndiaAustraliaSouth AfricaRussiaIndonesiaPolandKazakhstanColombia
Source: IEA Coal Information 2008
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Seaborne Trade
Minerals Engineering SocietyNottingham 26th November 2008
Slide 10
World seaborne hard coaltrade continues to grow
448.9473.6 501.1
571.1607.0
190.8191.6
209.2
204.6
226.7
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Source: IEA Coal Information 2008
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Minerals Engineering SocietyNottingham 26th November 2008
Slide 11
Hard coal trade patterns(IEA 2005) (million tonnes)
Minerals Engineering SocietyNottingham 26th November 2008
Slide 12
Japan182.3
Korea88.3
Taiwan68.9
India54.1UK
50.3China47.6
Germany46.3
USA32.9
Italy25.0
Spain24.4
Others271.9
Major coal importers in2007
Million Tonnes
Source: IEA Coal Information 2008
– top 5 account for 50%
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Minerals Engineering SocietyNottingham 26th November 2008
Slide 13
Australia243.6
Indonesia202.2Russia
100.2
South Africa66.7
Colombia67.2
China53.7
USA53.4
Canada30.4
Others99.9
Major coal exporters in2007
Million Tonnes
Source: IEA Coal Information 2008
– top 2 account for almost 50%
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Reserves andResources
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Minerals Engineering SocietyNottingham 26th November 2008
Slide 15
Reserves of coal are evenlydistributed around the globe
N. America122/10/7
Africa34/16/13
MiddleEast0/103/66
Europe18/2/5
FSU107/17/48 Asia Pacific
137/5/13
S. & Cent.America
8/16/7
(billion tonnes oil equivalent)coal / oil / gas
Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2008
Global EnergyReserves 2007
Minerals Engineering SocietyNottingham 26th November 2008
Slide 16
The top five countries have80% of proven reserves…
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Bil
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USA
PRChi
naIn
dia
Russ
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Sout
hAfric
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Aust
ralia
Ukra
ine
Poland
Braz
il
Kaza
khstan
Cana
da
United
King
dom
Source: BGR - Bundesanstalt fü rGeowissenschaften und Rohstoffe
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Minerals Engineering SocietyNottingham 26th November 2008
Slide 17
…whereas China andRussia have almost 80%of resources…
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USA
PRCh
ina
India
Russ
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Austra
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Ukra
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Poland
Braz
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Kaza
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Cana
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Unite
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Reserves ResourcesSource: BGR
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International Prices
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Minerals Engineering SocietyNottingham 26th November 2008
Slide 19
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£/G
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Steam coal pricesdelivered to North-WestEurope – where next?
Source - MCIS
Minerals Engineering SocietyNottingham 26th November 2008
Slide 20
Coal prices are still highby historic standards…
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International coal prices deliveredto North West Europe
Source - MCIS
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Minerals Engineering SocietyNottingham 26th November 2008
Slide 21
…and remain well abovecash costs of production
Minerals Engineering SocietyNottingham 26th November 2008
Slide 22
Freight from Richards Bayto Rotterdam has crashed
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$/To
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Freight Richards Bay - ARA
Source - MCIS
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World EnergyOutlook
Minerals Engineering SocietyNottingham 26th November 2008
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IEA projects world coaldemand increasing by61% to 2030(in reference scenario)
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+ 61%on
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27%DemandReduction
51%DemandReduction
Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2008
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Minerals Engineering SocietyNottingham 26th November 2008
Slide 25
USA59
CANADA23
BRAZIL22
MEXICO10
JAPAN162
KOREA127
AUNZ1
OECDEUR/EU27311
ETnonEU+ATE39
ME28
CHINA39
RUSSIA33
ATLANTICMARKET INDIA
84
ODA199OLAM
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NAFR12
SAFR3
HARD COAL TRADE IN REFERENCE SCENARIO, 2030 (million tonnes)
KEY:
EXPORTS(e.g. 100 Mt)
IMPORTS into REGION or COUNTRY(e.g. 100 Mt)
REGION100
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TO ASIAPACIFICMARKET
World Energy Outlook 2006, IEA“e” after tonnage means an estimated split between Atlantic and Pac ific markets
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37e
6 3e
18e
20e
3e
13e
40e
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90e
8e
4 7e7 8e
3 20e
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INDONESIA
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3 May07
ASIA PACIFIC
MAR KET
Source:Notes:
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Source: IEA
Coal Trade in ReferenceScenario 2030(million tonnes)
www.coalimp.org.uk
UK Coal Supplies
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Minerals Engineering SocietyNottingham 26th November 2008
Slide 27
Coal provided 36% of UKpower in 2007…
Coal36%
Gas41%
Nuclear16%
Oil1%
Others6%
Source - BERR
Minerals Engineering SocietyNottingham 26th November 2008
Slide 28
…with imports providingalmost three quarters oftotal supply
Russia20.3
USA2.5
Canada1.7
Colombia3.9
Australia4.7
South Africa7.7
UK17.0
Indonesia1.5
Others0.7
Source – BERR/HMRC
Million Tonnes
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Minerals Engineering SocietyNottingham 26th November 2008
Slide 29
How we got here – UKsteam coal supply anddemand
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Steam Coal Demand UK ProductionSource - BERR
Minerals Engineering SocietyNottingham 26th November 2008
Slide 30
Contrasting supplies in2007 for steam coal andcoking markets
Russia South Africa ColombiaIndonesia USA Others
Canada
USAOthers
Australia
Steam Coal(35.0 Mt)
Coking Coal(7.9 Mt)
Source -HMRC
NB Pie charts toscale by area
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Minerals Engineering SocietyNottingham 26th November 2008
Slide 31
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RussiaColombiaUSAIndonesiaSouth AfricaOthers
The mix of UK steam coalimports has changeddramatically
Source - MCIS
Minerals Engineering SocietyNottingham 26th November 2008
Slide 32ATH Seminar30 October 2008
Steam coal imports in 2007used a wide range of ports
Source – EWS Energy/HMRC
Immingham
Hu ll
London
Medway
Avonmouth
Liverpool
Cl ydep ort
Leith
Tyne
Blyth
Tees
Grangemouth
NB Arrows to Scale
Newport
Rosyth
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Minerals Engineering SocietyNottingham 26th November 2008
Slide 33
Summary Coal is the worlds fastest growing fuel
China is the major driver Seaborne trade is largely dependent on second
tier producers and consumers Coal reserves are abundant and distributed
around the globe But USA, China and Russia have the ‘lion’s share’
Coal prices have shown massive volatility in 2008 But are still high by historic standards
UK is a minor player on the world coal stage But remains the world’s fifth largest importer
www.coalimp.org.uk
Thank [email protected]