Integrating wind in the Energy Systems · (contact Peter Meibom [email protected]), unit...
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emf Snowmass 2009 Kenneth Karlsson Senior Scientist DTU Climate Centre System Analysis Division Technical University of Denmark Integrating wind in the Energy Systems Peter Meibom Senior Scientist Energy System Analysis System Analysis Division Technical University of Denmark
Transcript of Integrating wind in the Energy Systems · (contact Peter Meibom [email protected]), unit...
emf Snowmass 2009
Kenneth KarlssonSenior Scientist
DTU Climate CentreSystem Analysis Division
Technical University of Denmark
Integrating wind in the Energy Systems
Peter MeibomSenior Scientist
Energy System AnalysisSystem Analysis Division
Technical University of Denmark
Risø DTU National Laboratory for Sustainable EnergyBoard of Governors
Management
IT Service
Building and Construction Service Information Service
Administration
Wind E
nergy
System
s Analysis
Materials
Research
Bio S
ystems
Radiation
Research
Fuel Cells and
Solid S
tate C
hemistry
Optics and P
lasma
Research
Polym
ers
emf Snowmass 2009
DTU Climate Centre
Ongoing projects:• Advising the Danish Climate Commission• Supporting the Danish TSO in demand modelling• Climate labelling of products• Adaptation – water systems• TIAM DK
emf Snowmass 2009
Head of programme: Kirsten Halsnæs
DTU Climate Centre aims at integrating technical and economic research on climate change, mitigation and adaptation.
DTU Climate Centre supports cross cutting DTU activities that strengthen the climate perspective of ongoing research programmes
Agenda
• Wind in liberalised power markets• Models used for modeling integration
of wind power• How much wind can be integrated?• How can this be used in IAM?
emf Snowmass 2009
Impacts of wind power in the power system
• Technical impacts:– More need for transmission– Other production units: more variable production (more
start/stop, more part-load operation)– More need for reserve power especially on the minutes
to days scale (minutes: wind power forecast errors, days: alternative production when wind power production is low)
– Years: energy balance, maximum variation in wind power production from year to year ± 20%
– Modern wind turbines can deliver some types of power system services (e.g. reactive power)
emf Snowmass 2009Source: Peter Meibom
Presenter
Presentation Notes
Reduced spot market price: because wind power have very low marginal production costs so they will make bids with a low price on the power pool. In some situations the presence of wind power means that power production with larger marginal production costs do not enter the market, thereby decreasing the spot market price compared to a situation without wind power. Increased price for regulating power: because of increased demand.
• Market impacts:– Reduce the day-ahead market price– Increase the market price for regulating power– Consequences for long-term power plant investment
behavior? • Value of the wind power production:
– Reduced due to integration costs
Impacts of wind power in the power system
emf Snowmass 2009Source: Peter Meibom
Forecast
Measurement
January 19 February 4 November 6
800 MW in deficit 800 MW in excess
Day-ahead wind power forecasts and realised wind power production in Western Denmark (Hannele Holttinen, VTT)
emf Snowmass 2009Source: Peter Meibom
Intraday prices in northern Germany during the time period 22.01.2010 –28.01.2010 for the cases 2010_Base and 2010_20%:
Price impacts of wind power
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2010
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Eur
o200
2/M
Wh
2010_20% 2010_BaseSource: Peter Meibom
emf Snowmass 2009
Models
• STREAM (www.streammodel.org) – spreadsheet based, no dynamics between years, time steps 1hour
• Balmorel (www.balmorel.org) – myopic optimisation model (can run with foresight), endogenous investments, time steps down to 1 hour
• Wilmar (contact Peter Meibom [email protected]), unit commitment, stochastic wind, time steps 1 hour until now
• TIAM (www.etsap.org) – global energy model (full foresight, limited foresight, myopic), endogenous investments, few time steps per year
• Power Grid Models, time steps down to minutes
emf Snowmass 2009
Scenarios for input parameters (2009-2050)Fuel prices, CO2 price, Power
Demand, Flex. Demand, DH heat demand, transport fuels, technology
data for new technologies ...
Present power system configuration
Production cap., transmission, storage, plant lifetime,
consumption ...
STREAM scenario for 2050
Gross energy consumption, power and heat production,
emissions
Balmorel runs with endogenous
investments (2009-2050)e.g. 260 time steps per year
emf Snowmass 2009
Evaluation of energy system
Run Balmorel in 1 hour steps for critical years
Wilmar analysis for critical years
Description of each unit in the power system
Problems?Add more technologies, add new rules .... And
rerun
Final scenario 2009-2050 (investment roadmap)
Energy mix, energy balances, market prices, emissions etc....
Goals and policiesGHG emission reduction targets, RE share, taxes, support schemes, etc....
How much wind can be integrated?
emf Snowmass 2009
Energinet.dk (The Danish TSO)
DK 50% in 2050 STREAM
Wind share of electricity production Model
DK 50% in 2025 Balmorel
EA Energy analysis + Risø DTU (STOA) EU 17% in 2050 STREAM
The Danish Society of Engineers
DK 50% in 2025 STREAM/SIVAEL
All Island Grid study covering Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland
EnergyplanDK 48% in 2015DK 67% in 2030
Wilmar34% in ??
Wind power as share of total electricity consumption
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Denmark
Spain
German
y
Irelan
d
The N
etherl
ands
Portug
al
Greece
Austria
Luxe
mburg
United
Kingdo
m
Sweden
Italy
Finlan
d
Cyprus
Belgium
Latvi
a
Estonia
Franc
e
Lithu
ania
Poland
Czech
Rep
ublic
Romain
ia
Hunga
ryMalt
a
Slovak
Rep
ublic
Sloven
ia
Bulgari
a
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Wind power share in 2005
Wind power
25 %
21 %
18 %
21 %
3 %
17 %
Share of electricity production
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Future Energy Systems in EuropeCommissioned by STOA and carried out by ETAG
Final ReportSpecific Contract No.:IP/A/STOA/FWC-2005-28/SC33
Ref.: Framework Contract No. IP/A/STOA/FWC/2005-28
February 2009
Report prepared by:
Gy Larsen Project Manager, The Danish Board of Technology and Oliver Bo Schmidt, Project Assistant, The Danish Board of Technology.
emf Snowmass 2009Source: Peter Meibom
All Island Grid study covering Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland
Operational costs and CO2 emissions
P1 P2 P3 P4 P5
Wind prod/yearly demand [%] 11 23 23 23 34
Renewable production / yearly demand [%]
16 27 27 27 42
Operational costs incl. payments related to power exchange with GB [MEuro]
2342(1.00)
2002 (0.85)
2109 (0.90)
1898 (0.81)
1604 (0.68)
Resulting sum of CO2 emissions [Mton]
20.1(1.00)
17.6 (0.88)
18.4 (0.92)
21.8 (1.08)
15.3 (0.76)
emf Snowmass 2009Source: Peter Meibom
Net load –realised load minus realised wind power production
-2000
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
1 673 1345 2017 2689 3361 4033 4705 5377 6049 6721 7393 8065 8737
Net
load
[MW
]
P1 P2, P3, P4 P5 P6
Negative net load: export to GB, pumped hydro, wind curtailment
Source: Peter Meibomemf Snowmass 2009
In P6 2.3% of the wind power production has to be exported, stored or curtailed
Average yearly number of start-ups for new CCGTsand coal units in P1-P5. P3 does not have new CCGTs.
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New CCGTs COAL
Ave
rage
yea
rly n
umbe
r st
art-u
ps p
er u
nit
P1 P2 P3 P4 P5
Source: Peter Meibomemf Snowmass 2009
8% loss in average production efficiency for peak load gas plants
0.5% loss in average production efficiency
Ways of integrating windpower
• Fast reacting flexible power capacity• Increased transmission capacity• Integration with district heating and heat storage
– e.g. heat pumps• Flexible demand (Electric cars, “intelligent”
appliances etc.)• Seasonal electricity storage (batteries,
hydrogen, compressed air, pumped hydro etc.)
emf Snowmass 2009
What can be modelled in IAM based on the more detailed models?
When increasing wind share:• Increased need for backup capacity• Decreasing efficiency for peak load plants• Minimum thermal production at any time –
stabilising frequency• Spinning reserve• Flexible electricity demand – moving demand
away from peak
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Coming projects
• Renewable resources and mitigation options for China and India in TIAM
• Wind power integration in TIAM
• Climate feed-back in TIAM
emf Snowmass 2009
Thank you for an interesting workshop and ....
entrepreneurship
emf Snowmass 2009
• Wind integration studies:– All Island Grid study covering Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland
funded by Irish governments– Market model for the EWIS (European wind integration study) performed
by European Transmission system operators– Study of the Eastern interconnect in the U.S. funded by NREL
forthcoming• EU projects: Wilmar, Supwind, Anemos Plus, Tradewind• Electricity storage:
– Compressed air energy storage in Ireland• Electric vehicles and other Demand side measures• More information: www.wilmar.risoe.dk, www.supwind.risoe.dk,
Wilmar Planning tool widely used
