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Hurricanes-InundationOverview

Objectives: • Improve forecasts of tropical cyclones and related inundation hazards to enhance

mitigation decisions by emergency management officials at all levels of government and by individuals

• Increase communities’ ability to assess and improve their resilience to tropical cyclones and related inundation

Benefits• Hurricane forecasts, warnings, and associated emergency responses already save the Nation $3B/year

• Better preparation, response, and mitigation will reduce the average cost of storm-related disasters by $700M/year.

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Hurricanes-InundationObjectives Achieved in Program Plan

• Better forecast information for emergency management officials and individuals– Acceleration of improvements in hurricane

intensity forecasts through HWRF improvements– Initial operational implementation of advanced

model guidance for inland flooding in selected coastal regions

• Information and tools to enable communities to improve their resilience– Coastal Community Resilience Toolkit available

for communities affected by hurricanes

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Hurricanes-InundationDesired End State

Emergency managers and decision-makers will be better able to take effective measures to mitigate the impacts of tropical cyclones and related inundation.

Communities will be better able to improve their resiliency to hazards associated with tropical cyclones and inundation.

• FY09– Computing resources to support hi-res models to improve intensity forecasts tripled– Enhanced field program to improve understanding of hurricane intensification– Remote buoys for early detection/verification sustained

• FY13– Rate of improvement of intensity forecast guidance doubled– Information and tools available that enable communities to improve their resilience– Dynamic storm surge model operational– Advanced hydraulic model for forecasting inland coastal flooding operational in the

Carolinas– Improved scientific understanding of precipitation processes available for incorporation

in models

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Hurricanes-InundationApproach to Achieve the End State

Tool Development

Outreach/Education

Observations

Research

Modeling

Forecasts

Planning Tools

Better Hurricane Forecasts

Better Storm Surge Forecasts

Better Inland Flood Forecasts

More Effective Mitigation

More Resilient Communities

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Hurricanes-InundationAbility to Achieve Desired End State (p. 1)

Summary: New investments will accelerate improvements in forecasts and resilience tools, but improvements are still significantly constrained by resources

Status of 100% Alternatives in Program PlanObservations Backup Communications for ASOS Stations (Alt-OBS-ATM-1) Portable Observing Stations (Alt-OBS-ATM-2) High Resolution Winds Over Land (Alt-OBS-ATM-3) Improved Radar Quantitative Precipitation Estimates (Alt-OBS-ATM-4) NOAA Buoy Operations and Maintenance (Alt-OBS-OCN-1) Data Assembly Center (Alt-OBS-OCN-2) Regional Associations (Alt-OBS-OCN-3)

Ocean.US (Alt-OBS-OCN-4)

= Fully or Partially Addressed in Program Plan = Included in Above Core = Not Addressed

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Hurricanes-InundationAbility to Achieve Desired End State (p. 2)

Status of 100% Alternatives in Program PlanObservations (continued) Targeted Drifter Buoys (Alt-OBS-OCN-5) WP-3D Storm Surge Measurements (Alt-OBS-OCN-6) Coordinate Bathymetry/Topography Collection (Alt-OBS-T&B-1) Near-Coast Data for U.S. Virgin Islands (Alt-OBS-T&B-2) Hi-Res Topographic/Bathymetric Digital Elevation Models (Alt-OBS-T&B-3) Establish Observing Strategy Evaluation Capability for Tropical Cyclones and

Related Inundation (Alt-OBS-OSE-1)

Research Enhance Physics of Intensity Change Research (Alt-RES-PRS-1) Flux and Sea Spray Research (Alt-RES-PRS-2) Improve Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (Alt-RES-PRS-3) Improve Historical Record (Alt-RES-VAR-1) Social Science for the Tropical Cyclone Forecast and Warning System (Alt-RES-

SER-1)

= Fully or Partially Addressed in Program Plan = Included in Above Core = Not Addressed

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Hurricanes-InundationAbility to Achieve Desired End State (p. 3)

Status of 100% Alternatives in Program PlanOperational Modeling

Accelerate Tropical Cyclone Modeling Improvements (Alt-OMD-CYC-1)

Implement Next-Generation Storm Surge Model (Alt-OMD-SSG-1)

Advanced Operational Hydraulic Models (Alt-OMD-RVR-1)

Information and Tools to Support Planning for Resiliency

Community Resilience Tools Implementation (Alt-ITR-1)

Storm Surge Mapping for Planning (Alt-ITR-2)

Socioeconomic and Geospatial Information for Resilience (Alt-ITR-3)

Outreach and Education

Outreach for Coastal Hazards (Alt-O&E-OTR-1)

= Fully or Partially Addressed in Program Plan = Included in Above Core = Not Addressed

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Hurricanes-InundationOutcomes and Performance Measures

• Outcomes– Fewer deaths and injuries and reduced property damage – Communities are better able to ensure well-orchestrated,

proactive, and effective planning, preparedness and response/recovery

– Global competitiveness of the Nation's commerce and industry enhanced

• Performance Measures– Forecast accuracy for

• Hurricane intensity and track• Storm surge• Inland flooding

– Number of regions in which capacity was built to address coastal hazards and other weather and water conditions

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Hurricanes-InundationFY09-13 Products and Users

• Research Products– Improved understanding of key processes that control intensity– Detailed data on winds and turbulence that affect structures

• Products in Transition– Hurricane model enhancements based on new process

understanding• Operational Products

– Advanced hydraulic model for inland flood forecasts in Carolinas– Coastal Community Resilience Toolkit available in 3 regions

• Users– Most people in hurricane-affected areas use NOAA forecast

products (e.g., 6.9 billion web hits at Tropical Prediction Center in 2005)

– Since Aug., 2006 the Historic Hurricane Tracks tool has been visited by over 54,000 unique users