Impacts to Labor Productivity in the MlM etal SdS tud ... · Impacts to Labor Productivity in ......

Impacts to Labor Productivity in h M l S d F i D llthe Metal Stud Framing, Drywall, Tape & Finishing Tradesp g

Gerald H Williams Jr Ph D PEGerald H. Williams, Jr., Ph.D., PE

Author Biographyg p y

Gerald H. Williams, Jr., Ph.D., P.E.• Ph D Systems Science: Engineering• Ph.D. Systems Science: Engineering

Management, Portland State University• Master of Engineering Management,

Washington State UniversityWashington State University• B.S. Civil Engineering, Oregon State

University• 28 years of Engineering, Government, y g g, ,

Construction, and Consulting Experience– Engineering Design Firms– Portland Development Commission– Donald M. Drake Company– Construction Research Inc., (1996)

• Registered Professional Civil Engineer, since g g1985 California, 1986 Oregon, 2004 Washington, and 2008 Idaho

Purpose of the StudyPurpose of the Study

• Evaluate impacts to labor productivityEvaluate impacts to labor productivity

• Establish relationship between acts (trauma) and effects (productivity impacts and cost (p y pincreases)

• Provide literature review and describe special pissues related to productivity impacts in the trade

• Provide examples for calculating impacts

Legal Issues Requiring Cause & EffectsLegal Issues Requiring Cause & Effects

• Legal entitlement:Legal entitlement:

– Contractual Breach

– Breach of implied or “legal” warrantiesBreach of implied or legal warranties

• Breach

C & Eff• Cause & Effect

• Junk Science/Daubert

Importance of the Construction IndustryImportance of the Construction Industry

• 11% of US GDP is accounted for by the construction i dindustry

• Drywall work makes up about 10% of most commercial building projectscommercial building projects– Generally drywall will be a critical path activity through the middle portion of the job life.g p j• Excavation• Foundation• Structure

•Framing & DrywallLabor is

approximately 75% f h fFraming & Drywall

• Finishesof the cost of drywalling

Principal Tasks in DrywallingPrincipal Tasks in Drywalling

• Wall framingWall framing

– Putting up 2x4’s or (more typically metal studs) to support the drywall) pp y

• Hanging boardsg g

– Putting in place and securing the drywall panels

• Taping & finishing

– Sealing the seams between drywall panels

Contractors are Selected

• Lump sum bid competitive bid based on a predetermined set of plans and specifications…predetermined set of plans and specifications…

• Variables:

Estimate of labor productivity–Estimate of labor productivity– Material pricing/financing

– Bonding and insurance costs

– Overhead and fee

Distribution of Wall Framing RatesgMean=35.5 LF/MD

σ=16.6

Mean=35.6 LF/MD

σ=14.4

Measured in terms of linear feet per man‐day

Average rate is 35.5 linear feet per man‐day but some jobs are much easier (over 80 LF/MD) or harder (under 20 LF/MD)

Wall Framing Productivity Varies WidelyWall Framing Productivity Varies Widely• Production rates

vary widely for wallvary widely for wall framing

an-d

ay)

• Estimators are able to account for less than half of the at

e (L

F/m

athan half of the variation in actual production rates A

ctua

l ra

Estimated rate (LF/man-day)

What explains the rest of the variation?

Taping and Finishing is Similar…

• Taping and finishing tasks

)

from one of the largest drywallers in e

(SF/

day)

drywallers in the US

Act

ual r

ate

Estimated rate (SF/day)

A

Estimated rate (SF/day)

Research Projectj• Two projects

Pilot Project involving one firm– Pilot Project involving one firm

– Final Study, presented here

• Sponsors:

Northwest Wall & Ceiling Bureau– Northwest Wall & Ceiling Bureau

– Northern California Drywall Contractors AssociationAssociation

– NW Wall & Ceiling Contractors Association

Associated Wall & Ceiling Contractors– Associated Wall & Ceiling Contractors

– Western Wall & Ceiling Contractors Association

What are the Factors thatWhat are the Factors that Negatively Affect Productivity

• Expert Panel was assembled from the members of the NWCB

• Factors included:

– Trade Stacking

– Labor and Material Congestion

– Overtime and Added Shift Work

– Out of Sequence Work, Go Backs and Ramp‐q , pUp/Ramp‐Downs

Tow er - 1st Floor (Dryw all)

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S f P j tSurvey of Projects

• A survey of projects was conductedA survey of projects was conducted

• 255 responses received– Projects under $100K were excluded along with exterior work only

– Projects reporting 200% or better productivity were examined and found to be subject to scope change thereby making them inappropriatechange thereby making them inappropriate

• 218 valid responses were used for the analysis

Survey Instrument

4• 4 pages

• First page asked for project characteristics• First page asked for project characteristics

• Next three pages asked about effects• Next three pages asked about effects observed on the work site.

– List of 38 potential effects developedList of 38 potential effects developed by industry experts.

Survey Instrument Pages 2‐4y gFactor

Non

e

Low

Mod

erat

e

Hig

h

Seve

re

Comments:

h/ on

str

. d

i Overzealous InspectionU bl f t i t

Ow

ner/A

rch

Insp

ecto

r R

lt

dCo t

Ad Unreasonable safety requirements

Des

ign Incomplete documents/changes to scope

Quality of Plans & Specs/RFI’s (add # of RFI's in comment)Change Orders (add # of CO's in comment)Constructability Issues

erna

l ct

ors

Extreme WeatherWork Stoppages (Acts of God, War & Public Enemy)Wage Increases

Exte

Fac Wage Increases

Problems with access to the JobsiteOther Problems? (comment)

bcon

trac

tor

Con

trol

led

Bid Issues (missing scope? Overly optimistic productivities?)Problems with motivation/moraleOther local workforce problems (lack of skilled workers?)Availability/Supply of tools and equipmentExcessive rework/Punchlist (Quality control with workforce)Coordination/Layout errors of own work

Sub C Coordination/Layout errors of own work

Problems with vendor deliveriesOther Problems? (comment)

ed /coo

rdin

atio

n Problems with access to specific work areasBuilding interior environment problems (heat, rainwater, etc)Mechanical/electrical/jplumbing interferencesDelay/Availability of GC supplied materials (General OFCI)

a) Door Framesb) Windows or exterior skin/curtain wall

ral C

ontr

acto

r Con

trol

le

Adm

in/ b) Windows or exterior skin/curtain wall

c) Unfinished substrait work by othersProblems w/ response time to RFI's and Change Order RequestsProblems w/ response time to submittals

dulin

g

Trade stacking/Labor congestion due to other tradesCrowding/Labor congestion of your crewsCongestion due to materials and equipmentOvertimeAdded shift work

Gen

er

Del

ay/S

ched Out-of-sequence work

Remobilizations/Go BacksRamp-up/Ramp-down labor forces

Yes No Comment on Frequency:Were Three-week/coordination schedules distributed?Was the overall project schedule distributed?Were overall schedule updates distributed?

Core Idea –Finding Sources for Productivity LossFinding Sources for Productivity Loss

• A framing production rate is generally measured as linear feet per worker‐day (i e higher values are better)feet per worker‐day. (i.e. higher values are better)

– 50 means 50 linear feet per worker‐day

• Key variable: Framing Relative Project Estimate• Key variable: Framing Relative Project Estimate

– This stands for framing productivity as measured by actual rate/estimated rate.

• Therefore, framing productivity as measured by actual rate/estimated rate

> 1 implies your team worked faster than estimated (expected)

i li k d l h i d< 1 implies your team worked slower than estimated (expected)

Projects RepresentedProjects Represented

• 2/3 of the projects i twere private

Types of Projectsyp jFrequency Percent

2 0.9

Clean Room 7 3.2

Higher Education 17 7.8

Hospital 23 10.6

Institutional 12 5.5

Multifamily 12 5.5

Office 31 14.2

Office TI 1 0.5

Office/Manufacturing/Testing 1 0.5Office/Manufacturing/Testing 1 0.5

Office/Warehouse 1 0.5

Other ‐Medical Facilities 1 0.5

Other ‐ 40 18.3

Other Data/Hightech 1 0 5Other ‐ Data/Hightech 1 0.5

Residential 2 0.9

Retail 16 7.3

Schools ‐ K‐ 12 24 11.0

TI 26 11.9

Waste Water Treatment Plants 1 0.5

Project SizeProject Size

Trade StackingTrade Stacking

• Trade Stacking was experienced by contractors as shown to the left b d i ffbut does it affect productivity?

Labor CongestionLabor Congestion

• Too many cooks spoil the soupthe soup…

• Frequently there isFrequently there is labor congestion but does it affect productivity?

C i D M i l &E iCongestion Due to Materials &Equipment

• Stuff getting in the way of getting workway of getting work done

OvertimeOvertime

• Needing to have people work longer work weeks…

• Does it affect productivity?

Add d Shift W kAdded Shift Work

• Will a night shift be d has productive as the

day shift?

O t f S W kOut of Sequence Work

• Say a project should ll b dnaturally be done

as:

A B CABC • What is the impact of being forced toof being forced to do:

ACBACB

G B kGo Backs

• You can’t finish in areas and need to goareas and need to go back so:

ABCrest of AABCrest of A

Ramp Up/Ramp DownRamp Up/Ramp Down

• Hurry up and wait…

• You assemble a team starting work andstarting work and then have to wait before going again…g g g

Analysis Structure

Simple Single Linear RegressionsDetermines which causes and effects have

Calculate Fragmentation and Congestion

the strongest relationships with productivity Combines impacts finds factor which can be used for logistic regression

Correlation MatrixConfirms Relationships among

causes and effects but

Logistic Regression AnalysisDetermines levels of impact corresponding

to different productivity impactsindicate that SSLR results are not additive

to different productivity impacts

SSLR Results Survey Interpretation Coeff R2

1 FM OI O l I ti 0 0443 0 057SSLR Results 1 FM_OI Overzealous Inspection -0.0443 0.0572 FM_USR Unreasonable Safety Requirements -0.0517 0.0233 FM_ID Incomplete Documents/Changes to Scope -0.0729 0.0424 FM_QOP Quality of Plans -0.0622 0.0255 FM_CO's Change Orders -0.0365 0.0216 FM_CI Constructability Issues -0.0473 0.0297 FM EW Extreme Weather -0 0389 0 015

Simple SingleLinear Regressions

Calc Frag, Cong, Acc

35 t

7 FM_EW Extreme Weather 0.0389 0.0158 FM_WS Work Stoppages (Acts of God, War, & Public-0.0451 0.0589 FM_WI Wage Increase -0.0588 0.042

10 FM_PJA Jobsite Access -0.0286 0.06511 FM_Other_ExternaOther External Problems -0.0578 0.0512 FM_BI Bid Issues (Missing scope, overly optimistic p-0.0532 0.00313 FM_M/M Motivation/Morale -0.0656 0.015

Correlation MatrixLogistic

Regression

• 35 separate regressions

• Essentially

14 FM_LW Local Workforce Problems (such as lack of s-0.0573 0.00815 FM_A/S Availability of Tools and Equipment -0.0152 0.00116 FM_ERW Excessive Rework and Punchlist -0.0326 2E-0617 FM_CLE Coordination of Layout and Rework of Own W-0.0266 0.118 FM_VD Vendor Deliveries 0.0098 0.04219 FM_Other_SubconOther Subcontractor Controlled Problems 0.0005 0.07520 FM PA Problematic Access to Specific Areas 0 0693 0 046• Essentially,

everything thought to negatively impact productivity did…

20 FM_PA Problematic Access to Specific Areas -0.0693 0.04621 FM_BIE Building Interior Environment -0.0473 0.06822 FM_MEP Mechanical/Electrical/Plumbing Interference -0.0645 0.05723 FM_D_DF Delay/Availability of GC supplied Materials (G-0.0526 0.0724 FM_D_W Delay/Availability of GC supplied Materials (G-0.0625 0.00625 FM_D_U S Delay/Availability of GC supplied Materials (G-0.0556 0.09126 FM R RFI Response Time to RFIs and Change Orders -0.0644 0.097productivity did…

• High correlations prevent direct usage

26 _ _ Response Time to RFIs and Change Orders 0.0644 0.09727 FM_R_S Response Time to Submittals -0.0198 0.07428 FM_TS Trade Stacking/Labor Congestion due to Oth-0.0663 0.01429 FM_LC Crowding/Labor Congestion of Own Crews -0.0711 0.01830 FM_C Congestion due to Materials and Equipment -0.0640 0.12331 FM_Overtime Overtime -0.0291 0.09732 FM_ASW Added Shift Work -0.0415 0.107p g

though33 FM_ OSW Out-of-Sequence Work -0.0725 0.00734 FM_GB Remobilizations/Go-Backs -0.0684 0.01235 FM_RURD Ramp Up/Ramp Down -0.0760 5E-04

Correlation MatrixInterpretation O

I

USR

ID QO

P

CO

's

CI

EW WS

WI

PJA

Oth

er_E

xte

BI

M/M

LW A/S

ERW

CLE

VD Oth

er_S

ub

PA BIE

MEP

D_D

F

D_W

D_U

S

R_R

FI

R_S

TS LC C Ove

rtim

e

ASW

OSW

GB

RU

RD

Overzealous Inspection 1 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5Unreasonable Safety Requirements 0.6 1 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4Incomplete Documents/Changes to Scope 0 4 0 4 1 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 3 0 2 0 3 0 3 0 2 0 2 0 4 0 1 0 1 0 3 0 4 0 2 0 1 0 5 0 3 0 6 0 3 0 3 0 3 0 5 0 4 0 6 0 5 0 5 0 4 0 3 0 6 0 6 0 6Incomplete Documents/Changes to Scope 0.4 0.4 1 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.6Quality of Plans 0.4 0.3 0.6 1 0.5 0.5 0.1 0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4Change Orders 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.5 1 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 -0.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 -0 0 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3Constructability Issues 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.6 1 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.1 -0 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5Extreme Weather 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.3 1 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4Work Stoppages (Acts of God, War, & Public E 0.3 0.3 0.2 0 0.2 0.2 0.5 1 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3Wage Increase 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 1 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3Jobsite Access 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.5 1 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.1 0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3

aOther External Problems 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 1 0.3 0.3 0.2 -0.1 0.1 0 -0.1 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2Bid Issues (Missing scope overly optimistic pro 0 1 0 1 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 3 0 2 0 1 0 2 0 2 0 3 1 0 4 0 3 0 1 0 4 0 3 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 3 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 3 0 3 0 3 0 3 0 2 0 1 0 1 0 3 0 3 0 2Bid Issues (Missing scope, overly optimistic pro 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2Motivation/Morale 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.4 1 0.5 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4Local Workforce Problems (such as lack of ski 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.5 1 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4Availability of Tools and Equipment 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.2 -0 -0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 1 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.3Excessive Rework and Punchlist 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 1 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.5Coordination of Layout and Rework of Own Wo 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 1 0.5 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4Vendor Deliveries 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 -0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 1 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3

nOther Subcontractor Controlled Problems 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2Problematic Access to Specific Areas 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.1 1 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6Building Interior Environment 0 3 0 3 0 3 0 2 0 4 0 4 0 7 0 4 0 4 0 4 0 2 0 2 0 5 0 3 0 2 0 3 0 2 0 2 0 3 0 4 1 0 4 0 3 0 4 0 3 0 3 0 2 0 4 0 3 0 3 0 2 0 2 0 4 0 4 0 4Building Interior Environment 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 1 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4Mechanical/Electrical/Plumbing Interference 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.6 0.4 1 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.6Delay/Availability of GC supplied Materials (Ge 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.6 1 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.4Delay/Availability of GC supplied Materials (Ge 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 -0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.3 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 1 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5Delay/Availability of GC supplied Materials (Ge 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.7 1 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.6Response Time to RFIs and Change Orders 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 1 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.5Response Time to Submittals 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 1 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4Trade Stacking/Labor Congestion due to Other 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 1 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.6Crowding/Labor Congestion of Own Crews 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.8 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6Congestion due to Materials and Equipment 0 4 0 4 0 5 0 3 0 3 0 5 0 3 0 2 0 2 0 4 0 2 0 2 0 5 0 3 0 2 0 4 0 4 0 5 0 2 0 7 0 3 0 7 0 5 0 3 0 5 0 4 0 4 0 8 0 8 1 0 5 0 4 0 6 0 6 0 6Congestion due to Materials and Equipment 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.7 0.3 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.8 0.8 1 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6Overtime 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.5 1 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4Added Shift Work 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 1 0.4 0.3 0.4Out-of-Sequence Work 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 1 0.8 0.7Remobilizations/Go-Backs 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.8 1 0.8Ramp Up/Ramp Down 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.8 1

Red numbers represent very strong correlations of 0.5 or higher.Red numbers represent very strong correlations of 0.5 or higher.Black numbers represent strong correlations of 0.3 to 0.5Gray numbers represent weak correlations of 0 to 0.3

Correlation MatrixSimple Single

Linear RegressionsCalc Frag, Cong, Acc

tor


Regression

Fact

ors

ract

or

Con

trac

t

Group Correlation Averages(1’ i l d d)

wne

r

xter

nal F

ubco

ntr

ener

al C(1’s not included)

O Ex Su G

Owner 0.443 0.287 0.229 0.338

External Factors 0.287 0.39 0.254 0.281

Subcontractor 0.229 0.254 0.346 0.331

General Contractor 0.338 0.281 0.331 0.443

Types of ImpactsTypes of Impacts

• 38 Total Variables38 Total Variables

– Causes, Effects, and Directs

• Incomplete or Incompetent Plans &• Incomplete or Incompetent Plans & Specifications, Poor Management

•Out of Sequence Work, Go Backs, etc…Out of Sequence Work, Go Backs, etc…

•Environmental Factors: Weather

– 2 Main Effects:2 Main Effects:

• Fragmentation Related

•Congestion Related•Congestion Related

Calculating Congestiong gSimple Single



Regression

What was the impact of: (Circle one value in each row)

None Low Moderate High Severe

Trade stacking (Labor congestion due to other 0 1 2 3 4

g ( gtrades)

0 1 2 3 4

Labor congestion of your crews 0 1 2 3 4

Congestions due to materials and equipment 0 1 2 3 4

Sum of circled scores:

Congestion Sum/3Congestion = Sum/3

Calculating FragmentationCalculating FragmentationSimple Single



Regression

What was the impact of: (Circle one value in each row)

None Low Moderate High Severe

Out of sequence work 0 1 2 3 4

Remobilization and Go Backs 0 1 2 3 4

Ramp Ups and Ramp Downs of labor forces 0 1 2 3 4

Sum of circled scores:

Fragmentation = Sum/3

Logistic Regression UsageSimple Single


L i ti

)(b- 2211011loss)y (efficienc1groupin being ofy Probabilit xbxb


Regression

• Similar to regular linear regression but better suited t thi bl h ki h th t

)(b 22110e1)y(g pgy xbxb

to this problem where we are asking whether or not a loss occurred

B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B) FM_Congestion_Mean .186 .196 .899 1 .343 1.204 FM_Fragmentation_Mean .599 .201 8.893 1 .003 1.821 Constant -.846 .268 9.989 1 .002 .429

Likelihood of Loss

Construction ClaimsConstruction Claims

Step 1: Provide compelling evidence that a loss wasStep 1: Provide compelling evidence that a loss was incurred

Step 2: Using detailed project specific records, p g p j p ,quantify the loss

This work is to be used for the first step to provide compelling evidence so as to move to Step 2

Alternate Use: Forward Pricing

• Variations of this work can be used to predict the productivity loss due to an upcoming change andproductivity loss due to an upcoming change and factor that into the engineering change order.

Observed Range of Impacts

Upper Range of typically observed productivity impacts on:

F i H i T iFraming Hanging Taping

Congestion 44% 40% 47%

Fragmentation 50% 41% 47%

Acceleration 42% 42% 47%

ProductivityProductivityStudy TipsStudy Tips

by by James T James T YandYand

Stafford Frey CooperStafford Frey Cooper

Pass The AmmoPass The Ammo

• Make sure your lawyer knows about the study• Make sure your lawyer knows about the study

• Productivity = ProfitProductivity Profit

What Wins Lawsuits?What Wins Lawsuits?

• Facts, Facts and More Facts

• Document the factors that impact productivity:

– Daily logs

– Pictures/video

– Emails

– Change Orders

– Written Notice to GC

What Do You Have To Prove?What Do You Have To Prove?

• Impact Claims

• Must Collect Data to Support Claim

• Document in Writing the Process• Document in Writing the Process

• Create a Paper Trial of What Happened and Why

Factors That HarmFactors That Harm

• Inspections that Delay

• Quality of the Plans/Specs/RFIs

• Weather

• Crowding/Interference

• Out of Sequence

• Remobilize

SolutionsSolutions

• Cover Delay in Subcontract

• Make sure Employees Are Trained

• Involve You Lawyer Early rather than Late• Involve You Lawyer Early rather than Late

• Use of Digital Diary

Profit EquationProfit Equation

Higher quality field documentation =

– proper pricing

– successful pricing

– strength in negotiation

– WIN ‐WIN

ChecklistChecklist• Include ALL your costs

– CoordinationSmall tools– Small tools

– Consumables– C/O preparation– Tool box– Warranty– As‐builtAs built– Degree of difficulty

• Accurate cost code to the CO work– include inefficiency– include out‐of‐sequence costs

• Negotiate labor firstNegotiate labor first– then equipment– then material

TipsTipsTipsTips

• No wishy‐washy answers from Owner

• Persistent, not pest

• Assure owner knows: make change, pay

• Be professional

• Squeaky Wheel Cycle‐all projects, settle when on top

• Negotiate early, not at end of project

– Owner out of money

– Amount too large

– Long time to get

Tips For Quick ResolutionTips For Quick Resolution• Claim prevention

• Proper DAILY documentation

• Monitoring daily documentation

• Computerized documentation

• Active role during construction

• Schedule monitoring

• Contract terms review

• Cost coding and cost controls

Questions?

Stafford Frey Cooper

Q

Stafford Frey Cooper3100 Two Union Square601 Union StreetS ttl WA 98101Seattle, WA 98101

Website: www.staffordfrey.comEmail: jyand@staffordfrey comEmail: [email protected]: 206.623.9900

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