Household Projections for Wales Welsh Statistical Liaison Committee 6 th March 2014.
Household projections in Scotland
description
Transcript of Household projections in Scotland
General Register Office
forS C O T L A N D
information about Scotland's people
Household projections in Scotland
Esther RoughsedgeGeneral Register Office for Scotland
(GROS)
www.gro-scotland.gov.uk/statistics/library/household-estimates-projections/index.html
General Register Office
forS C O T L A N D
information about Scotland's people
Talk outline
• How we produce household projections
• What they show
• Potential ways to improve them
General Register Office
forS C O T L A N D
information about Scotland's people
Purpose of household projections
• Mainly used to inform local authority decisions about future housing and service need – Need to know projected number of households, and
type.
• GROS produces projections in a consistent way across the country.
• Local projections may be used in strategic plans, where this can be justified.
General Register Office
forS C O T L A N D
information about Scotland's people
How they are produced
• Produced every 2 years, to cover a 20-year period.
• Based on population projections;
• Subtract communal establishment population (from Census);
• Project household composition information from the 1991 + 2001 Censuses.
General Register Office
forS C O T L A N D
information about Scotland's people
Categories used
• 32 local authorities in Scotland• 7 household types:
• 10 age groups for the head of household:16-24, 25-29, 30-34, 35-44, 45-54, 55-59, 60-64, 65-74, 75-84, 85+
1 adult (male) 1 adult (female)2 adults 2+ adults, 1+ children
1 adult, 1 child1 adult, 2+ children3+ adults
General Register Office
forS C O T L A N D
information about Scotland's people
Household composition
• ‘Head of household’ = first person on Census form.
• The number of heads of households = the number of households.
• Headship rates: the proportion of people who head a household within an age group, by household type and LA.
General Register Office
forS C O T L A N D
information about Scotland's people
Example of headship rates:Aberdeen, 2001: age 35-44
Household type Number Proportion
(= headship rate)
1 adult: male
1 adult: female
2 adults
1 adult, 1 child
1 adult, 2+ children
2+ adults, 1+ children
3+ adults
People who are not a head of household
Total number of people in age group
3,460
1,857
2,451
898
972
8,353
796
12,693
31,480
0.110
0.059
0.078
0.029
0.031
0.265
0.025
0.403
1.000
General Register Office
forS C O T L A N D
information about Scotland's people
Aberdeen: households with 2 adults Headship rate × household population = households
Age group Headship rate Household population
No. households
16-24
25-29
30-34
35-44
45-54
55-59
60-64
65-74
75-84
85+
0.101
0.183
0.138
0.078
0.152
0.265
0.315
0.324
0.258
0.162
25,931
14,883
15,051
30,397
27,366
12,291
9,498
17,027
10,901
2,541
2,623
2,728
2,071
2,378
4,147
3,252
2,987
5,522
2,812
411
General Register Office
forS C O T L A N D
information about Scotland's people
Advantages / disadvantages of this methodology
• Advantages– Robust– Fairly easy to understand and interpret– The data we require are available
• Disadvantages– Based on past trends– Reliant on Census data
General Register Office
forS C O T L A N D
information about Scotland's people
Differences from other parts of UK
• England and Wales:– Different household types (include marital status, but
not necessarily children).
– Incorporate Labour Force Survey results.
– Include age cohort effects.
– Projections produced every 4-6 yrs.
• Northern Ireland:– Similar to Scotland, but use household propensities
rather than headship rates – based on household size.
General Register Office
forS C O T L A N D
information about Scotland's people
Results of household projections for Scotland: 2004-2024
General Register Office
forS C O T L A N D
information about Scotland's people
Estimated population of Scotland, actual and projected, 1951-2031
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031
1 2004-based projection.
Projected 1
General Register Office
forS C O T L A N D
information about Scotland's people
Projected change in population by age group: 2004-2024
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
0-15 16-29 30-44 45-59 60-74 75-84 85+
Age group
General Register Office
forS C O T L A N D
information about Scotland's people
Population projections 2004-2024Average 1% increase in population; wide geographic variations
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Abe
rdee
n C
ity
Dun
dee
City
Eile
an S
iar
Inve
rcly
de
She
tland
Isla
nds
Eas
t Dun
bart
onsh
ire
Wes
t Dun
bart
onsh
ire
Ren
frew
shire
Nor
th A
yrsh
ire
Gla
sgow
City
Ang
us
Eas
t Ayr
shire
Sou
th A
yrsh
ire
Mid
loth
ian
Dum
frie
s &
Gal
low
ay
Ork
ney
Isla
nds
Cla
ckm
anna
nshi
re
Nor
th L
anar
kshi
re
Eas
t Ren
frew
shire
Hig
hlan
d
Mor
ay
Arg
yll &
But
e
Sou
th L
anar
kshi
re
Stir
ling
Per
th &
Kin
ross
Fal
kirk
Abe
rdee
nshi
re
Fife
Edi
nbur
gh, C
ity o
f
Eas
t Lot
hian
Sco
ttish
Bor
ders
Wes
t Lot
hian
Scotland average
General Register Office
forS C O T L A N D
information about Scotland's people
Household projections 2004-2024Average 13% increase in households
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Abe
rdee
n C
ity
Dun
dee
City
Eile
an S
iar
Inve
rcly
de
She
tland
Isla
nds
Eas
t Dun
bart
onsh
ire
Wes
t Dun
bart
onsh
ire
Ren
frew
shire
Nor
th A
yrsh
ire
Gla
sgow
City
Ang
us
Eas
t Ayr
shire
Sou
th A
yrsh
ire
Mid
loth
ian
Dum
frie
s &
Gal
low
ay
Ork
ney
Isla
nds
Cla
ckm
anna
nshi
re
Nor
th L
anar
kshi
re
Eas
t Ren
frew
shire
Hig
hlan
d
Mor
ay
Arg
yll &
But
e
Sou
th L
anar
kshi
re
Stir
ling
Per
th &
Kin
ross
Fal
kirk
Abe
rdee
nshi
re
Fife
Edi
nbur
gh, C
ity o
f
Eas
t Lot
hian
Sco
ttish
Bor
ders
Wes
t Lot
hian
Scotland average
General Register Office
forS C O T L A N D
information about Scotland's people
Household type, 2004 & 2024: Average household size is getting smaller
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1 adult 2 adults 1 adult withchild(ren)
2+ adults withchild(ren)
3+ adults
2004
2024
General Register Office
forS C O T L A N D
information about Scotland's people
Age of head of household, 2004 & 2024:Greatest increase in older age groups
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
16-29 30-44 45-59 60-74 75-84 85+
Age of head of household
2004
2024
General Register Office
forS C O T L A N D
information about Scotland's people
Percentage of people living alone, 2024: 1 in 4 will live alone
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
16-24 25-29 30-34 35-44 45-54 55-59 60-64 65-74 75-84 85+
Age group
MalesFemales
General Register Office
forS C O T L A N D
information about Scotland's people
General Register Office
forS C O T L A N D
information about Scotland's people
Summary of household projections results, 2004-2024
• Overall number of households up 13%, despite smaller change in population.
• Average household size decreasing.• More people living alone.• Ageing population – more households with
older people, fewer households with children.
• Large geographical variations.
General Register Office
forS C O T L A N D
information about Scotland's people
Media coverage
• ‘Lonely future for Scots as one-person families soar’ - Scotsman
• ‘1 in 4 will live alone’ - Herald
• ‘City to grow a quarter by 2024’ - Edinburgh Evening News
• ‘Church says Labour policies to blame for death of the family’ - Mail
General Register Office
forS C O T L A N D
information about Scotland's people
Notes on household projections
• Projections are based on past trends.• They don’t take account of future policy
initiatives / planned housing developments (or bird flu).
• There is some demand to include additional information, e.g., economic predictions, or plans for future housing developments. But it would be difficult to do this consistently.
General Register Office
forS C O T L A N D
information about Scotland's people
Potential ways to improve our household projections
General Register Office
forS C O T L A N D
information about Scotland's people
Incorporate survey results
• Information on household type is based on last 2 Censuses.
• Household estimates constrain the figures – But no information on household type
• Could include results of surveys (e.g., Scottish Household Survey, Labour Force Survey) to update this at national level.
General Register Office
forS C O T L A N D
information about Scotland's people
Different geographic areas
• Current household projections are for: – Councils
– Structure plan areas
• Changes to planning system need projections for ‘city regions’ and national parks.
Require small area households estimates, to form ‘building blocks’ for projections for different areas.
General Register Office
forS C O T L A N D
information about Scotland's people
Other potential improvements
• Update communal establishment information.
• Review the household types and age groups used.
• Produce variant projections?
General Register Office
forS C O T L A N D
information about Scotland's people
Future PhD
• Ashley McCormick will start a PhD supervised by Paul Williamson on incorporating social trends into household projections.
• Combine headship rates at sub-national level with dynamic micro-simulation to project household and family formation.
• Experiment with different headship definitions.
General Register Office
forS C O T L A N D
information about Scotland's people
Summary: potential improvements
• Incorporate survey results to update information on household composition.
• Produce projections for different areas.• Update communal establishment
information.• Variant projections. • Potential alternatives to projections
methodology and headship definitions.
General Register Office
forS C O T L A N D
information about Scotland's people
Any questions?