Robin EdwardsHampshire County Council

and Chairman of the Demography Sub Group, South East England Regional

Assembly

Household projections in the South East Regional Plan, and

update on the EiP

Content

1) Household Projections in the preparation of the Regional Spatial Strategy for the South East Region

2) Regional Assembly’s response to the Official Household Projections at the EiP

3) House price inflation and housing supply

Timetable for Preparation of RSS• Mid 2003 - technical work commenced• April 2004 - Spring debates with stakeholders on policy

options• Winter 2004-05 - consultation with South East region

residents on draft policies and proposals• Mid 2005 - Publication of Draft Plan• Autumn 2005 - consultation with stakeholders on Draft

Plan• Winter 2005/2006 - Analysis of comments and

amendments to Plan• April 2006 - Submission of Final Plan• Summer 2006 - Submission of Responses to the South

East Region Spatial Strategy• November 2006 - Examination in Public commences

Projections Timetable• Mid 2003 - official subnational population

projections and household projections 1996 based• April 2004 - draft 2002 based subnational

population projections published, and 2001 Census results available

• Autumn 2004 - population and household projections required for inclusion in plan for consultation with S.E. region residents

• Late 2005/early 2006 - timescale for official 2003 based household projections

• Not possible to wait for official projections. Therefore, Regional Assembly Demography sub group chairman commissioned to produce updated household projections taking account of most recent data

Data Relative to 1996 based Subnational Population

projections, draft 2002-based projections took account of:

• 2001 Census base population• GAD 2002 based fertility and mortality rate projections• increased international net in migration• unattributable population change

2001 Census data allowed recalibration of:• marital status structure• household composition and household representative

rates

Results

Source Period H/Hold Change Dwellings Change p.a.DETR 1996 -based 1996-2021 835,000 34,500

RPG 9 2001-2021 N/A 28,000

Reg. Assem. 2002 -based2002-2027 847,000 35,000

DCLG 2003 -based 2001-2026 890,000 36,800

2006-2026 N/A 32,000

2006-2026 N/A 28,000

2006-2026 N/A 25,000

Results

Regional Assembly Consultation with Residents, Winter 2004/05

Source Period H/Hold Change Dwellings Change p.a.DETR 1996 -based 1996-2021 835,000 34,500

RPG 9 2001-2021 N/A 28,000

Reg. Assem. 2002 -based 2002-2027 847,000 35,000

DCLG 2003 -based 2001-2026 890,000 36,800

2006-2026 N/A 32,000

2006-2026 N/A 28,000

2006-2026 N/A 25,000

Regional Assembly Consultation with Residents, Winter 2004/05

Start of EiP

Submitted Plan April 200628,900 Dwellings per annum 2006

to 2026

DCLG Household Projections March 2006

38,000 dwellings per annum 2006 to 2026

Criticisms levelled at Housing Proposals in the RSS for the South

East• Dwellings proposals should be

increased to be consistent with the official household projections

• There was already a housing crisis in the South East. Therefore dwellings proposals should exceed number required to satisfy official household projections

Regional Assembly EiP response to Household Projections issue

• 1. Zero Net Migration Projection 2006 to 2026 = 20,000 dwellings per annum

• 2. 28,900 dwellings = 8,600 in migrant h/holds per annum 19,000 net in migrants)

5,700 and 12,500 if backlog cleared within first 10 years)

• Therefore dwellings in excess of 28,900 not required to satisfy locally generated need, and any additions proposed would only draw in additional in migrants

Regional Assembly EiP response to Household Projections issue (cont)

• 3. 2003 based household projections - not an assessment of housing need - ephemeral and subject to revision - 2004-based Subnational population projections - 2005 divorce rate - impact on one person households (change in one person

households headed by divorced people 2001 to 2021 84,100 (1996 based), 211,300 (2003 based)

- 1996 based household rep rates over projected one person households headed by males in 2001 by 16,000

• No requirement to slavishly follow household projections, and issues raised above indicate it would be very unwise to do so

Regional Assembly response to charge of "Housing crisis" in South

East

Indicators of Housing crisis:• overcrowding• sharing households• concealed households• homeless households• reduction in household formation

rates

OvercrowdingHouseholds over One Person per Room

South East Region1991 49,643 1.7

2001 43,015 1.3

Sources: 1991 Census, Table 42 & 2001 Census, Table 53

N.B. Censuses do not provide information on bedroom standard

Households Below Bedroom Standard

3 Year Av. %2001 60 1.812002 58 1.772003 56 1.732004 55 1.68

Source: Survey of English Housing

SurveysNorth East 1.7North West 2.1Yorkshire and the Humber 1.4East Midlands 1.6West Midlands 2.7East 1.6London 6.6South East 1.8South West 1.6

Source: Survey of English Housing 2005-06 Table 9

All Regions

Mean percentages from 2003-04 to 2005-06

South East Region

Sharing

No. %1991 32,247 1.1

2001 11,037 0.3

Sources: 1991 Census, Table 41. 2001 Census Table 58

3 Year Av. %2001 35 1.062002 29 0.872003 19 0.57

Source: Survey of English Housing

Households not in Self Contained Accom South East Region

Households not in Self Contained Accom South East Region

SharingHouseholds not in Self Contained Accommodation

North East 0.2

North West 0.7

Yorkshire and the Humber

0.5

East Midlands 0.6

West Midlands 0.6

East 0.6

London 2.6

South East 0.6

South West 1.0

All Regions 2003-04 Surveys

Source: Survey of English Housing Table S136

Number of Concealed FamiliesSouth East Region

% of all families

1991 34,000 1.6

2001 23,063 1.0

Sources: 1991 Census Table 88; 2001 Census Table 11N.B Survey of English Housing does not provide information under this definition

Homelessness - South East Region

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160Q

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1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Hun

dred

s

Years

No

. of h

ho

lds

homeless hholds inpriority Need

hholds in temporaryaccommodation

Source: CLG P1E Homelessness returns

Official Projections of Average Household Size

South East Region

Year 2001

1989-based 2.36

1992-based 2.34

1996-based 2.35

2001 Census 2.36

2001 Census (adjusted)

2.38

ChartSales through Right to Buy compared with RSL and Dwelling completions, 1981-2005 - England

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20000

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Sales through Right toBuy

RSL and LA dwelling completions

House Price Inflation and Housing Supply

• Barker Review of Housing Supply - high house price inflation in the UK results from a shortfall in supply

• Martin Weale, Director of NIESR - "(house prices in the UK) are of the order of 20 per cent higher than can be explained by the interaction of supply and demand". National Institute Economic Review (Jan 2006)

Barker Review failed to take account of:• 1. Owner occupiers perception of housing as an

investment, not just a place to live• 2. Impact of the Buy to Let market

Housing as an Investment• Do you agree or disagree with the statement:• "Owning your own home is a good long term

investment"• Agree - 96 per cent• Survey of English Housing 2004-05.• People are prepared to borrow to the maximum

available to them, in the expectation of making a capital gain

• Mechanisms and agencies involved: - income multiples - repayment periods - interest rates - estate agencies

Buy to Let

Number of Buy to Let Mortgages

Value of Buy to Let Mortgages £m

1999 73,200 5,400

2005 701,900 73,400

Source: Council of Mortgage Lenders, July 2006

Household change by tenure

Owner Occupied

Social Rented

Private Rented

All Tenures

1995-2000

800 -316 78 562

2000-2005

379 -274 368 473

England

South East Region2000-

200543 -20 40 62

Source: ONS Labour Force Survey (DCLG Table S101)

Source: ONS Labour Force Survey (DCLG Table S135)