Hengbing Zhao, Research Engineer Andrew Burke, Research Engineer

November 18, 2013

Heavy-Duty Class 8 Trucks: Alternative Fuels and Economics

ITS-DAVIS BOARD OF ADVISORS CLEAN TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH UPDATE

Available Heavy-Duty Class-8 Truck Technologies

Conv. Diesel

Diesel Hybrid e.g. Peterbilt386 Hybrid

Natural Gas e.g. Westport HD LNG

Battery Electric e.g. Balqon MX30

H2 Fuel Cell e.g. Vision Motor Tyrano

Future Truck H2 & Electricity (Long Term)

CNG/LNG as a bridge fuel (Short Term)

Truck OEM/Chassis Model Class Hybrid Electric

Freightliner Class M2e Hybrid 7,8 Kenworth T370 7 Mack/Volvo TerraPro Hybrid 8 Navistar, Inc 4300 6,7,8 Peterbilt 337, 348, 386 Hybrid 6,7,8

Natural Gas

Freightliner Cascadia,113, M2 112, 114SD NG

8

Volvo VNL, VML, VNX, VHD, … 8 Kenworth T660, T800S, W900S, … 6,7,8 Peterbilt 384, 367, 388, 386, … 6,7,8 Mack Pinnacle, Granite, TerraPro, … 6,7,8 Crane Carrier CNG 6,7,8

Battery Electric

Smith Electric Newton 5,6,7 Balqon MX30 8 Transpower On-Road, Off-Road 8

Fuel Cell Vision Motor Tyrano 8

Available Advanced Heavy-Duty Class 8 Trucks

Driveline Technologies / Alternative Fuels

DRIVELINE TECHNOLOGIES

• Baseline diesel engine/transmission

• Hybrid-electric

• LNG engines

• Battery-electric

• Fuel cells

ALTERNATIVE FUELS

• Diesel (baseline)

• LNG

• Electricity

• Hydrogen

Approaches for Analyzing Different Drivelines/Fuels

Fuel Economy / CO2 Emission Analysis

• Develop real truck models for each powertrain option by using PSAT

• Simulate operation on day, short haul & long haul driving cycles

Economic Attractiveness Analysis

• Calculate differential vehicle cost of each powertrain option

• Calculate break-even alternative fuel price for recovering additional cost in specified pay-back period with fixed discount rate

Simulation Inputs for Powertrain Configurations

Fuel Economy

Fuel Economy-Diesel gallon equivalent

Vehicle type Fuel Economy (miles/diesel gallon equivalent [DGE])

day short-haul long-haul diesel 5.19 4.89 5.59 lng-si 3.73 3.69 4.37 lng-ci 5.34 4.80 5.39

ev 14.07 11.41 12.23 fc 7.22 6.22 7.15

Hybrid Vehicles (miles/DGE) diesel-hyb. 6.44 5.39 5.81 lng-si-hyb. 4.99 4.28 4.62 lng-ci-hyb. 6.34 5.16 5.60

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

Conv.Diesel

DieselHyb.

Conv.LNG-SI

LNG-SIHyb.

Conv.LNG-CI

LNG-CIHyb.

BatteryEV

Fuel Cell

Nor

mal

ized

Die

sel E

quiv

alen

t Fue

l Eco

nom

y

Day Drive Short Haul Long Haul

PSAT simulations

mi/DGE for different driveline technologies & driving cycles

CO2 Emissions – Different Powertrains & Fuels

† CNG from current NG high pressure transmission lines (200 – 15000 psig) ‡ LNG produced by liquefying a portion of NG stream with pressure drop energy § No CCS employed in electricity generation & hydrogen production processes

Powertrain Component Cost & Vehicle Incremental Costs

Economic Results for Various Fuels and Powertrains

Economic factors

Engine/fuel Additional cost ($)

breakeven $/DGE *

breakeven $/Gal-altfuel

Present price alt. fuel

Today’s costs 3yr/.04/60k miles

LNG-SI/LNG 52,500 1.80 1.03 1.5-2.0

LNG-CI/LNG 67,800 1.95 1.11 1.5-2.0 Fuel cell/H2 108,975 1.0 .89 4-5 3yr/.04/150k miles

LNG-SI/LNG 52,500 2.50 1.43 1.5-2.0

>LNG-CI/LNG 67,800 3.25 1.86 1.5-2.0 Fuel cell/H2 108,975 3.25 2.88 4-5 ½ Today’s costs 3yr/.04/60k miles

LNG-SI/LNG 26,250 2.40 1.37 1.5-2.0

>LNG-CI/LNG 33,900 3.00 1.71 1.5-2.0 Fuel cell/H2 54,488 3.15 2.79 4-5 3yr/.04/150k miles

>LNG-SI/LNG 26,250 2.80 1.60 1.5-2.0

>LNG-CI/LNG 33,900 3.50 2.0 1.5-2.0 >Fuel cell/H2 54,488 4.18 3.70 4-5

Baseline diesel fuel cost $/gal

Hybridization of Baseline Diesel Truck

Hybridization of the baseline diesel truck *

Additional cost $

Driving cycle

mpg DGE

Mpg DGE baseline

$/DGE

Baseline vehicle today 24,750 day 6.44 5.19 3.96 Short haul 5.39 4.89 7.81 Long haul 5.81 5.59 21.17 ½ today 12,375 day 6.44 5.19 1.98 Short haul 5.39 4.89 3.91 Long haul 5.81 5.59 10.59

*120kw electric motor, 15 kWh lithium battery

Conclusions – Fuel Economy

• Improvements in heavy-duty Class 8 duty truck engine efficiency, aerodynamic drag & rolling resistance will benefit fuel economy significantly over various applications (50% improvement by 2020).

• Hybridization of conventional trucks with diesel, LNG SI, and LNG CI engines can improve fuel economy by 18–33% for day drive cycle and 8–14% for short haul cycle. Hybridization of diesel and LNG trucks can increase fuel economy by 3–6% over long haul applications.

• Battery electric trucks can achieve diesel equivalent fuel economy higher by a factor of 2.2–2.7 than baseline conventional truck. H2 FC trucks can improve diesel equivalent fuel economy by 27–39% over various applications.

Diesel equivalent fuel economy 22–28% lower for LNG-SI trucks, ~same for LNG-CI trucks, vs. conventional diesel trucks over various applications.

CO2 Emission Reduction

• Compared to conventional Class 8 diesel trucks, conventional LNG-CI trucks, LNG-SI and LNG-CI hybrids, battery electric trucks, and FC trucks can reduce CO2 emission by 24–39% over day drive cycle, 12–29% over short haul & long haul drive cycles. Conventional LNG-SI trucks have no apparent benefit in terms of CO2 emission reduction.

• If no CCS considered during production of electricity & H2 from natural gases, LNG-CI hybrids can compete with battery electric and FC trucks in terms of CO2 emissions.

Economic Analysis

• At “today’s” differential vehicle costs, only conventional LNG-CI engine truck is economically attractive in long-haul application.

Conclusions – CO2 Emissions & Economic Analysis

• Hybridizing of Class 8 trucks not attractive – except conventional diesel vehicle operating on day cycle at ½ today’s hybridization cost.

• Fuel cell powered trucks economically competitive for long-haul applications for fuel cell costs of ~$25/kW & hydrogen at ~$4/kg.

• Battery-powered (400 kWh) trucks not economically competitive for any short/long haul applications – even for battery costs of $250/kWh – but could be attractive for port applications.

Conclusions – Economic Analysis

Zhao, Burke, and Zhu, “Analysis of Class 8 Hybrid-Electric Truck Technologies Using Diesel, LNG, Electricity, and Hydrogen, as the Fuel for Various Applications,” EVS27, 2013

Zhao, Burke, and Miller, "Analysis of Class 8 Truck Technologies for their Fuel Savings and Economics," Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, 23(2013), 55-63.

Thank You !