Science, Technology and Diplomacy Meet in the

Ozone HoleCharles Weiss

Georgetown School of Foreign Service

STORY LINE: The Rationalist’s Paradigm of Science and Diplomacy

Ozone Issue Identified by Scientists Scientific Uncertainty Clouds Early Negotiations Later Scientific Discoveries Confirm

– Seriousness of issue

– Identification of CFCs as Cause of Problem Governments and Corporations Act

Decisively Only After Ozone Hole Is Discovered Diplomacy Incorporates Dynamic Science Situation Improved but Problems Remain Is This a Precedent for Climate?

First, the Science

The Kinetic Theory of Dilute Gases: A Scientific Model

A Dilute Gas is Mostly Empty Space in which Molecules (Pictured as Tiny Balls) Move Randomly and Fast, Colliding and Bouncing off Each Other with No Chemical Reactions and No Loss of Energy

Air is 80% N2, 20% O2, plus bits of Argon and CO2. Most Collisions are with N2 or O2

Molecules Move Faster at Higher Temperature Collisions with the Walls of the Vessel are

Felt as Pressure– F=ma plus Relatively Simple Math ---> PV=nRT

(Boyle’s Law) (P1V1=P2V2)

A Digression: This “Billiard Ball” Picture is a Model:

a “Simplified Representation of a System or Phenomenon, with the Hypothesis Needed for Explanation, Often in Mathematical Form.”

Because of the Assumptions that Went into the Model, Its Domain of Applicability is Limited to Dilute Gases.Similarly, the Validity of Models Used in the Social Sciences Depends on their Purpose and Hence on their Assumptions and the Processes they Include.

Why is the Validity of the Model Limited to Dilute Gases?

The Real World is More Complicated than the Description Provided by this Model. Molecules like

O2, N2 and H2O are Made Up of Atoms that are Made up of Nuclei Surrounded by Clouds of

Electrons. But in Dilute Gases, Molecules Spend Most of their Time Far from Each Other, so that

This “Fine Structure” Doesn’t Matter.

These Complications Do Matter at Higher Pressures or Lower Temperatures.

Volume of Molecules is No Longer Negligible Atoms are Spherical but Molecules Aren’t:

(O2 and N2 are More Like Dumbbells)

Electron Clouds Deform as Molecules Near Each Other (VanderWaals Forces: Otherwise Gases Wouldn’t Liquefy)So the Model Must be Refined to Take these Facts into Account if You Want to Explain Anything about Liquids. But in the Stratosphere This Doesn’t Matter.

ANOTHER SIMPLIFYING REACTION IS: No Chemical Reactions, Just Energy-Conserving Bounces

In Fact, Some Collisions Can Result in Chemical Reactions

The Rates of these Reactions as a Function of Temperature and Pressure Can be Measured in the Laboratory – (by measuring how the speed of the reaction changes when the

concentration of each reactant is varied.)

These Measurements Help Scientists to Estimate the Rate of these Reactions in the Stratosphere

TAKE-HOME MESSAGE:A Model Explores the Implications of a Set of Assumptions as Applied to Available Data. It’s No Better and No Worse than these Assumptions. It’s Designed to be Good Enough to

Explain the Desired ObservationsMake Predictions

Similar Limitations Apply to Social Science Models Used to Justify Policy Decisions

The Layers of the Atmosphere

The Stratosphere (~25 Miles Up) A Dilute Gas, 1/25 as Dense as the Air We Breathe,

Temperature -110FAtmospheric Gas Molecules Speed through Empty

Space at ~400 Meters per Second (900 miles/hr --compared to ~600 m/s [1300 mi/hr] at Room Temp)

Molecules Collide About Every 25 Nanoseconds after Traveling ~10 Microns (100 Diameters -- compared to every 2/3 Nanosecond at room temp & ground level)

(Comparison: Light Travels 1 Foot per Nanosecond.)

Stratospheric Ozone (not ozone smog in the troposphere,

which we breathe)

Absorbs Low Wavelength (High Energy) Ultraviolet Photons that

would (if they reached the surface of the Earth), Damage DNA, Causing Skin Cancer

and Disrupting Marine Eco-systems

Stratospheric Photochemistry in Nature (Without Human Intervention)

Stratospheric ozone is naturally formed and destroyed by a series of well understood chemical reactions. Creation and destruction balance, resulting in a stable equilibrium concentration of 0.3 ppm in the atmosphere. (NB: O2 is 200,000 ppm)

– O2 + UV --> O + O (photolysis into free O atoms)– O + O2 + N2 --> O3 + N2 (O3 formation)

[N2 ABSORBS EXCESS ENERGY AND HEATS STRATOSPHERE, BUT IS CHEMICALLY INACTIVE]

– O3 + UV --> O + O2 (O3 photolysis)– O + O3 --> O2 + O2

O3 may be destroyed by other mechanisms, e.g. by NO + O3 --> NO2 + O2

CFCs -- Wonder Chemicals(CHLOROFLUOROCARBONS)

Invented by Midgeley, who also invented leaded gasoline

Chemical inertness makes possible widespread applications– Aerosol propellant– Cleaning solvent– Foamer

But long after their invention, scientists discover that all CFCs end up in the stratosphere, where they remain for 100 years!– (CFCs are Heavier than Air, and Travel Upward on Air

Currents, not Diffusion.)

CFCs Destroy O3 by a Catalytic Chain Reaction in the Stratosphere

C2Cl5F + UV --> Cl + C2Cl4F in the upper stratosphere [C2Cl5F is a Generic CFC]

O3 destroyed: Cl + O3 --> ClO + O2

Cl regenerated: ClO + O --> Cl + O2

Net Effect: O + O3 --> O2 + O2

repeated ~10,000 times Chain Termination: Cl + NO2 --> ClONO

Discovery Wins Nobel Prize for Rowland and Molina. There’s No Uncertainty.

This Model Predicts a Change in the Equilibrium ratio of

O2 and O3, and the Partial Destruction

of Stratospheric Ozone Everywhere in the World

(since Ozone and CFCs Travel and Mix Freely in the Stratosphere All Over the World,

with One Exception that we shall Discuss Shortly)

AN ASIDE: Distinguish Among the following:

CFCs Destroy the Stratospheric Ozone Layer (by the Chain Reaction that we discussed)

CFCs Also Cool the Stratosphere by Reducing Ozone Photolysis– i.e., Less Energized N2 Is Produced Because There’s Less

Ozone to Be Photolyzed.

CFCs Are Also Greenhouse Gases and Contribute to Global Warming (to be Discussed Next Lecture)

These Are Three Different Phenomena

The Political and Diplomatic Response:

(Science and Diplomacy Advance in Parallel)

Science

and

Diplomacy

Advance in

Parallel

Response of Government Oregon and Other States Ban “Non-Essential”

Uses of CFCs (Aerosol Propellants)– Details: A Powerful, Irascible and Legendarily

Profane Oregon State Legislator Champions Oregon laws through. No one dared oppose him.

– He and Midgely each show how One Man can Make a Difference.

Federal Government Follows Some Years Later

Response of Industry: Dupont Announces that it will Stop Making CFCs if

they are Proven Harmful to Human Health. Dupont Organizes Alliance for Responsible CFC Policy.

an Industry Non-Governmental Organization (NGO)– Alliance Opposes Further CFC Limits on Grounds of

Scientific Uncertainty– Limited Basic Research on Stratospheric Photochemistry and

Applied Research on Potential Substitutes Begins, but Ends as Issue Fades with Reagan Election

International Negotiations are Inconclusive

Scientific Controversy Complicates Negotiations

Still No Measurement of Global Ozone Loss Predictions of World-wide Ozone Depletion

Bounce Up and Down as Models Improve Disagreement Over the Right Approach:

– Industry: Act When the Science Is Proven– Environmentalists: Take Proactive Measures in Case

the Danger Turns Out to Be Real Even So, NGO and Scandinavian Pressure Leads

to the Vienna Convention

Vienna Convention (1985)

Agreement in Principle that Ozone Destruction is a Problem and that the Parties will Limit CFC Production

Broad Framework Agreement to Be Followed by Specific Protocols

– Sets Pattern for Future Global Environmental Agreements

Provisions of Vienna Convention (2) Parties meet regularly as a ‘legislature’ to

update the treaty without amending it Scientific review incorporated into updating

process– Government-appointed scientists meet one year in

advance to set forth state of scientific understanding– Atmospheric scientists gain political sophistication– ‘Kept’ scientists have trust of government, but

attract ridicule if they espouse politically convenient theories outside of mainstream scientific opinion

– Precedent: Regular Scientific Review had Earlier been Part of Treaties Concerning Whales and Sea-Going Mammals

NEW SCIENTIFIC DISCOVERY An ozone hole over the Antarctic, an

area of reduced stratospheric ozone the size of the US, confirms the urgency and the seriousness of the problem, and puts diplomats under pressure to find a solution.

The Ozone Hole in False Color

CFCs are suspected but not proven to be the cause of the ozone hole.

A major expedition, organized by NASA, was in the field measuring ClO in the stratosphere to make it possible to choose among several alternative theories, even as diplomats gathered in Montreal to negotiate the first protocol under the Vienna Convention.

The Montreal Protocol

Montreal Negotiations Take Place Despite Scientific Uncertainty

Meta-Analysis of Different Models Shows that Different Projections of Global Ozone Loss are Due to Differing Projections of CFC Production, not to Uncertainty about the Effects of CFCs.

‘Epistemic Community’ of Scientists, Government Officials, NGO Activists, and Officials of IGOs Speed Consensus by Educating Colleagues and the Public

NGOs Don’t Want to Lose Momentum. Through a ‘Lead Coalition’ of Scandinavian Nations, they Press for Action Even Before the Cause of the Ozone Hole is Definitively Established

Ozone Hole Looms in the Background, but is not Used as an Explicit Justification for Action because of Lack of Proof that CFCs are its Cause.

Provisions of Montreal Protocol 50% Cut in CFC Production and

Consumption from 1986 Levels– 50% is a Political Compromise with No

Scientific Justification Restricts Trade with Non-Parties

– GATT Permits Limits on Trade Linked to Environmental Goals

Special Concessions to Developing Countries (LDCs)

Advanced countries created the problem. Why should LDCs suffer?

But Rapid growth of “Emerging Markets” with Hot Climates (especially India and China) make them a major source of CFCs

Resolution: LDCs are Allowed 10 extra years to comply

Funds from “Global Environmental Facility,” managed by the World Bank, are provided to help LDCs phase out CFCs

A Watershed in International Environmental Agreements -- Hoped to be a Harbinger of Future Trends

Scientific Uncertainty Mixes with Political Differences Science Sets the Agenda -- but Does Not Dictate the

Political Solution Limits on Free Trade Needed in order to Meet

Environmental Goals Cooperation of LDCs Needed to Meet Global Needs Epistemic Community Educates the Governments and

their Diplomats, but Some Countries Have to Take the Lead.

After the Montreal Protocol is Negotiated,

The Ozone Hole is Explained

POLAR STRATOSPHERIC CLOUDS

Newly Discovered Mechanism Proves CFCs Cause Ozone Hole– Chlorine (Cl2) and hypochlorous acid (HOCl, the active

ingredient in Clorox), formed by chemical reactions, accumulate during winter darkness on the surface of tiny ice crystals that make up polar stratospheric clouds

– Dawn’s light in Antarctic spring releases atomic chlorine (Cl) that leaves the ice (desorbs) and activates the chain reaction that destroys ozone

– Cl lasts until ice crystals melt because the usual chain terminator (NO2) is trapped on the surface of the ice as ionized nitric acid (H+ and NO3

-)

Cl Generation in Antarctic Stratosphere

Cl2 + light ---> Cl + Cl

HOCl + light ---> HO + Cl -- feeding Cl into the ozone-destroying chain reaction:O3 destroyed: Cl + O3 --> ClO + O2

– Cl regenerated: ClO + O --> Cl + O2

– Net Effect: O + O3 --> O2 + O2 repeated many more than 100,000 times and producing the ‘ozone hole’

A Digression for All You Chemists:

O, Cl, OH and ClO are Free Radicals with Unsatisfied Valences. They are Very Reactive, and Last only a Few

Collisions, after which They Disappear in the Chemical Reactions we

Discussed.

Response to Definitive Scientific Evidence

Dupont agrees to stop CFC manufacture– Dupont could have profited from stonewalling but

elected to honor their previous commitment– They also realized that CFC substitutes would be a

business opportunity “London Revisions” (1990) speed

CFC phase-out– Halons and other chemicals

included in the restrictions

Where Are We Now?

and What Lessons Have We Learned?

A Remarkable Diplomatic Achievement

CFC Production is Down in Advanced Countries

Substitutes have been found for almost all CFC uses (despite early fears that they were irreplaceable)

Ozone Hole Hasn’t Grown, and may be Beginning to Decrease

Future Disappearance of Ozone Hole Depends on Degree of Compliance

But Problems Remain Smuggling of CFCs Is Highly Profitable China and India Have Begun Rapid Economic

Growth in Economy and in CFC Production– It’s Hot and People Want Refrigerators and Air

Conditioners Many Late Payers to the Global Environmental

Facility CFCs and Other Ozone Destroyers Must Be

Controlled for 50-60 Years Before Stratospheric Ozone Levels Recover

Lessons from Ozone Experience

Boundary blurs between public and private, business and government, domestic and international issues

Review of scientific evidence is an essential part of the diplomatic process in environmental agreements

US Leadership is Essential

What is the Presumed Value of the Treaty Process?

Negotiation of an environmental treaty educates governments, prods the recalcitrant, exposes spurious scientific arguments to peer review

Ratification and implementation of an environmental treaty builds confidence, establishes commercial standards, stimulates new technical solutions, builds technical and administrative capacity -- but this may collapse when costs become apparent and opposition counter-attacks (Kyoto, Oslo)

The Ozone Treaty: a Precedent for Dealing With Climate Change? YES Science Adds New Problems to the Diplomatic Agenda;

Scientists Gain Diplomatic Savvy Epistemic Community Educates Governments and

International Organizations Policy Mixes Science, Diplomacy and Politics

– Bargaining, Not Science, Controls Outcome– But Science Weighs in at Critical Moments

Corporations, NGOs and Public Opinion Play Critical Roles

The Ozone Treaty: a Precedent for Dealing With Climate Change? YES Public Opinion is Critical to Political Outcomes Environmental Treaties Must Be Updated As Experience

Unfolds and Scientific Understanding Improves– Scientific Report Now Precedes Major Environmental

Negotiations– International Secretariat Monitors CFC Phase-Out and Size of

Ozone Hole Precautionary Action May Be Justified Even Before

Scientific Proof Is Complete

The Ozone Treaty: a Precedent for Dealing With Climate Change? NO Clear-cut Scientific Conclusions Are NOT

Typical of Environmental Issues Ozone Decision Was Easier Because There

Were Few Manufacturers, Limited Market Climate Change Involves Comprehensive

Change in the World’s Style of Living: Huge Economic Stakes

Political Climate Changes in 2000 as US Turns Against Multilateral Regimes

Climate Change Unfolds Differently: Huge Corporate Counter-Attack, Inventing or

Exaggerating Scientific Uncertainty in order to Forestall Action

US Government Ignores Scientific Consensus; Major Disagreement on Objectives Blocks UN Action

Europe, US States and Multinational Corporations Take the Lead in Establishing Cap-and-Trade Systems, Researching Conservation and Alternative Energy Sources

Climate Change as ‘Post-Normal Science’

– Driven by Policy Issues– Hard Political Problem– Values in Dispute– High Stakes– High Uncertainty in the Science

Scientific Consensus Proves Vulnerable to Counter-Attack

Two New Concepts

Sustainable DevelopmentPrecautionary Approach

Sustainable DevelopmentDevelopment Should NOT Take Place at the Expense of Future

(Human) Generations

‘Deep Ecologists’ Argue that Humans Have No Special Moral Status

Medium and Long Term

Consequences Matter An Important Corrective: Both Politics and Economics

Tend to Ignore the Long Term – Short Election Cycle in Democracies

– Bureaucrats Change Jobs Often, Aren’t Accountable

– Most Economic Models Do Not Address Long-Term Effects Cost/Benefit Analysis Uses Discounting Techniques that Essentially

Neglect Long-Term Effects Growth Theory Assumes that Future Generations will be Better Off

than We Are.

– Philosophical Reluctance to Think Long-Term ‘What Have Future Generations Ever Done for Me?’ ‘The Long Term is After Lunch.’ ‘Life is Short: Eat Dessert First.’

The Precautionary Principle (or Approach)

‘Weak’ Precaution: Lack of Scientific Evidence Does Not Preclude Action to Protect the Environment If Damage Would Otherwise be Serious and Irreversible (Note Triple Negative.)– To Act in the Face of Uncertainty Is a Normal Situation in Policy

Matters! It Just Seems Abnormal to Scientists! ‘Strong’ Precaution: Action Should be Taken in the Absence

of Firm Scientific Evidence!

The Precaution Principle (2) Think Before You Act in order to Prevent or Minimize

Risk, Rather Than Retrofit After It Has Occurred– AVOID TECHNOLOGY LOCK-IN

– Consider Alternative Paths to Your Objective, and Choose the Least Risky

Burden of Proof Shifts to Polluters– Development Doesn’t Get Priority

Ecology Has Intrinsic Value Monitoring and Research Are Needed Affected Parties Should Be Notified

Europeans Regard the Precautionary Principle as

Customary International Law; the US is Resisting.

(Definition: Customary International Law is Law that States Obey in the Belief that they

have to, even in the Absence of a Treaty)

But What Level of Certainty Justifies Action?

Scientifically Proven? ‘Beyond a Reasonable Doubt’? ‘Clear and Convincing Evidence’? ‘Clear Indication’? ‘Preponderance of the Evidence’? ‘Reasonable Belief’? ‘Reasonable Indication’? ‘Reasonable Suspicion’? Hunch? Groundless Fear?

99%? 90%?

75%?

50%?

30%?

10%?

<1%?

More Generally, What Action Should be Taken at What Cost, and What

Level of Benefits Foregone, in order to Avoid Uncertain Long-Term

Damage? The Precautionary Principle (PP) Values Harms and Risks More than Benefits, an Old Ethical Issue

PP Reflects Distrust of the Promoters of Products and Projects

Inaction, too, May Have its Costs. The Relative Risks of Action and Inaction Must be Weighed.– Zambia Refused to Accept Genetically

Modified Corn that it Needs to Avert Starvation

Take-Home Message on Precaution Precaution is not a Specifically European Idea.

Precaution is Built into American Laws on Environment and Public Health.

The Precaution Principle is a Blunt Instrument It is Often Used as a Vehicle for Political and Economic Pressures, Both to Derail Unwise Projects and to Block Desirable Innovations.

The Precautionary Principle Can be a Useful Counter-Balance to Pressure (Often from Enthusiasts or Strong Vested Interests) to Take Unnecessary Technological Risks.