Global Status of Commercialized Biotech/GM

Crops 2010

Clive James, Chair, ISAAA

Randy A. Hautea, Global Coordinator, ISAAAand Director, ISAAA SEAsiaCenter

Public Forum on Science Communication, April 6, 2011, Biopolis, Singapore

Mission

Help increase crop productivity and income generation, and bring about a safer environment and more sustainable agricultural development.

Major Programs

Facilitate sharing of information and experiences on crop biotechnology through a global network;

Transfer and deliver appropriate biotechnology applications to developing countries

About Us International Service for the Acquisition of Agri-biotech Applications

KnowledgeExperiences

Technologies

Capacities

SHARING…Resources

Information

Double food production on same/less land area, water, nutrients, energy by 2050

Increasing world population

6.5B to 8B by 2025 and 9.2B by 2050

Decreasing cultivable land per capita0.45 ha. in 1966 to 0.15 ha. in 2050

Lower growth in grain yields Less than 1.0 % per annum in 1990s

Malnutrition/Poverty ~ 1billion people malnourished or hungry >1 billion afflicted by poverty

Climate change Limited water availability New pests and diseases

The Global ChallengeProducing More with Less in A Sustainable Way

0

200

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Janu

ary F M A M

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06 J A S O N D

Janu

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07 J A S O N D

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08 J A S O N

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10 J A S O N D

Rice

, Whe

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, Soy

bean

in U

S$/m

il to

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tton

in U

S$ c

ents

/pou

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Crud

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ice

in U

S$/B

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Rice Soybean Wheat Maize Cotton Crude Oil Price

Source: Compiled by Clive James, 2011

Rice Soybean

Maize

Cotton

2006 285 214 103 59

High 1,016

554 287 168

2010 537 484 251 168

Prices of Commodities ($/ton) and Oil ($/barrel), January 2006 to December 2010

• Can biotech crops produce more Can biotech crops produce more affordable affordable foodfood, feed and fiber, and are they , feed and fiber, and are they safesafe??

• Can biotech crops contribute to Can biotech crops contribute to sustainabilitysustainability? ?

• Can biotech crops help with Can biotech crops help with climate change climate change mitigation and adaptationmitigation and adaptation??

• Can biotech crops contribute to Can biotech crops contribute to foodfood securitysecurity and to the and to the alleviation of poverty and alleviation of poverty and hungerhunger? ?

Global Society’s Questions re: Global Society’s Questions re: GM/Biotech CropsGM/Biotech Crops

Source: Clive James, 2011Source: Clive James, 2011

ADOPTIONADOPTION

OFOF

BIOTECH CROPSBIOTECH CROPS

1996 - 20101996 - 2010

Accumulated Global Area of Biotech Crops,1996/2010Biotech Crops Surge Over 1 Billion Cumulative Hectares in 2010

Source: Clive James, 2011

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

0

494

988

1482

2471

1976

2965

M Acres

500 Million Hectares

1 Billion Hectares = USA land area

10 years 5 years

Increase over 2009 29 countries which have adopted biotech crops

In 2010, global area of biotech crops was 148 million hectares, representing an increase of 10% over 2009, equivalent to 14 million hectares.

Source: Clive James, 2010.

Biotech Mega Countries

50,000 hectares or more

USABrazil*Argentina*India*CanadaChina*Paraguay*Pakistan*South Africa*Uruguay*Bolivia*AustraliaPhilippines*Myanmar*Burkina Faso*SpainMexico*

66.825.422.9

9.48.83.52.62.42.21.10.90.70.50.30.30.10.1

Less than 50,000 hectares

Colombia*Chile*Honduras*Portugal

Czech RepublicPolandEgypt*Slovakia

* Developing countries

Costa Rica*RomaniaSwedenGermany

Global Area (Million Hectares) of Biotech Crops, 2010: by Country

10%

Source: Clive James, 2010

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

81%Soybean

64%Cotton

29%Maize

23%Canola

90

33

158

31

Conventional

Biotech

0

49

99

148

198

247

296

346

395

445Million acres

Global Adoption Rates (%) for PrincipalBiotech Crops (Million Hectares, Million Acres), 2010

Global Area of Biotech Crops, 1996 to 2010:By Trait (Million Hectares, Million Acres)

Source: Clive James, 2010

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

0

25

49

74

99

124

148

173

198

222

250

Herbicide Tolerance

Insect Resistance (Bt)

Herb Tolerance/Insect resistance

M Acres

• 1 billionth hectare planted in 2010 – about same area as USA or China

• Increase from 25 to 29 countries: Pakistan, Myanmar and Sweden, and Germany resumed planting

• Strong 10% growth = 14 M ha = 2nd largest gain ever

• 87-fold increase from 1996 to 2010 - fastest adopted crop technology

• Top ten countries each >1 M ha, 8 are developing

• 15.4 M biotech farmers, up 1.4 M – 90% or 14.4 million were small and resource-poor farmers

• Stacked traits – 11 countries, 32 M ha (22%)

SUMMARYSUMMARY –– 2010 HIGHLIGHTS 2010 HIGHLIGHTS

Source: Clive James, 2011

IMPACT OF GM/BIOTECH IMPACT OF GM/BIOTECH CROPS CROPS

• IMPROVED PRODUCTIVITY AND INCOME – Farm income gains $65 B from 1996 to 2009 44% due to cost reduction 56% due to a production gain of 229 M tons - conservative estimate (spill-over from biotech to conventional) • PROTECTS BIODIVERSITY – Double crop production on same area of 1.5 B hectares of

crop land – Save forests/land/biodiversity – 229 M tons would have

required additional 75 M ha of land to till– Enhanced farm ecology

GLOBAL IMPACT of BIOTECH CROPS GLOBAL IMPACT of BIOTECH CROPS Source: Brookes and Barfoot forthcoming, and Clive James, 2011Source: Brookes and Barfoot forthcoming, and Clive James, 2011

• ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT – Reduce need for external inputs – Savings of 393 M kg pesticides from 1996/2009 = 9% saved – Saved 18 B kg CO2 in 2009 – contribution to climate

change, removing 8 M cars off the road – Conservation of soil & water through biotech + no low till

• SOCIAL BENEFITS – Contribution to poverty alleviation of 14.4 M small resource-poor farmers in 2010 & welfare benefits emerging.

GLOBAL IMPACT of BIOTECH CROPS GLOBAL IMPACT of BIOTECH CROPS Source: Brookes and Barfoot forthcoming, and Clive James, 2011Source: Brookes and Barfoot forthcoming, and Clive James, 2011

Safety of Biotech/GM Crops

THE FUTURETHE FUTURE

2011 - 2015, 2011 - 2015,

THE REMANING FIVE YEARS OF THE THE REMANING FIVE YEARS OF THE SECOND DECADE OF SECOND DECADE OF

COMMERCIALIZATION COMMERCIALIZATION

2015, The Millennium Development Goals Year2015, The Millennium Development Goals Year

Key Requirements for SuccessKey Requirements for Success

• POLITICAL WILL POLITICAL WILL

• ACCESS TO NEW & IMPROVED ACCESS TO NEW & IMPROVED BIOTECH CROPSBIOTECH CROPS

• APPROPRIATE AND EFFICIENT APPROPRIATE AND EFFICIENT REGULATION IN DEV. COUNTRIESREGULATION IN DEV. COUNTRIES

TheThe Future –Future – 2011-15 2011-15

Source: Clive James, 2011Source: Clive James, 2011

• Many new crop/trait options will be ready before 2015 Many new crop/trait options will be ready before 2015

• Drought tolerance – principal traitDrought tolerance – principal trait –– maize in US 2012 maize in US 2012

• Biotech rice Biotech rice –– major crop, up to 1 billion beneficiaries major crop, up to 1 billion beneficiaries

• Quality traits Quality traits –– Golden Rice in 2013, omega-3, others Golden Rice in 2013, omega-3, others

• More biotech crops developed by countries from the More biotech crops developed by countries from the South in public inst. – more South-South cooperation South in public inst. – more South-South cooperation

• Biotech applications for “Speeding the breeding”Biotech applications for “Speeding the breeding” –– MAS and biotech crops, to provide a faster response MAS and biotech crops, to provide a faster response to more severe and rapid changes in climate changeto more severe and rapid changes in climate change

• Asia will grow more in 2nd decade than first decadeAsia will grow more in 2nd decade than first decade

The Future The Future –– 2011-2015. A WAVE OF 2011-2015. A WAVE OF NEW & IMPROVED BIOTECH CROPSNEW & IMPROVED BIOTECH CROPS

Source: Clive James, 2011Source: Clive James, 2011

Current Numbers and Estimations of Future Numbers of GM Crops Worldwide

Source: Stein and Cerezo, 2010

Implementation of APPR0PRIATE REGULATION will spur adoption of biotech crops in AFRICA Source:Compiled by Clive James, 2011

2010 (3 countries)South Africa, Burkina Faso

and Egypt

2015 (up to 10 countries) South Africa, Burkina Faso, Egypt, Mali, Togo, Nigeria, Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania

and Malawi

EGYPT

BURKINAFASO

SOUTHAFRICA

NIGERIA

KENYA

UGANDA

MALAWI

BURKINAFASO

TOGO

SOUTHAFRICA

EGYPT

TANZANIA

MALI

Projected Biotech Crop Countriesin Asia (2010-2015)

2010India, China, Pakistan, Australia,

Philippines and Myanmar

CHINA

PHILIPPINES

AUSTRALIA

MYANMARINDIA

PAKISTAN

2015India, China, Pakistan, Australia, Philippines, Myanmar, Indonesia,

Vietnam and Bangladesh

CHINA

PHILIPPINES

AUSTRALIA

MYANMAR

INDIA

PAKISTAN

BANGLADESH

VIETNAM

INDONESIA

Source: Clive James, 2011

ISAAA Prediction for 2ISAAA Prediction for 2ndnd Decade, 2006-2015 Decade, 2006-2015

2006 2010 2015

# of Biotech Countries

22 29 ~ 40

# of Farmers Planting Biotech Crops

10 Million 15.4 Million ~ 20 Million

Global Biotech Area

m. hectares

100 Million Hectares

148 Million Hectares

~200 Million

Hectares