Global Opportunites for PET Bottles - The Size and Shape of Future Demand

GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR PET BOTTLES – THE SIZE AND SHAPE OF FUTURE DEMANDPETNOLOGY 2015NUERNBERG 9TH NOVEMBER 2015

ROSEMARIE DOWNEYGLOBAL HEAD OF PACKAGING RESEARCH

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GLOBAL MARKETPLACE FOR PET

2015 VIEW ON OPPORTUNITIES FOR PET

FINAL THOUGHTS



4

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

0

1

2

3

4

Billion Units 2015 % CAGR 2015-2019

Bill

ion

Uni

ts

% C

AG

R

Global Retail Packaging by Industry in 2015 and Growth to 2019

Food and Drink: Core to Global Packaging Demand and Growing

8% Food4.3units of retail packaging sold in 2015

73%in food and

drinks alone

14%share held by PET in food and drinks

Trill

ion




5

Clear Importance of Plastics Packaging in Food and Drink

Flexible Aluminium/PlasticMetal Food Cans

HDPE BottlesFlexible Paper

Folding CartonsLiquid Cartons

Thin Wall Plastic ContainersMetal Beverage Cans

Glass BottlesPET Bottles

Flexible Plastic

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200

Global Leading Pack Types for Food and Drink in 2015 and Growth 2015-2019

2015 Billion Units

Billion Units

4.2% CAGR to 2019

4% CAGR to 2019

3.2% CAGR to 2019

3.1% CAGR to 2019

+80 bn

0.8% CAGR to 2019

2.2% CAGR to 2019




6

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 201440%

45%

50%

55%

60%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

PET Bottles vs. Total Packaging Growth in Soft Drinks

PET % Total Packaging Growth % PET Bottle Growth

% P

ET

Bot

tle

in S

oft

Dri

nks

% a

nnua

l gro

wth

Global Evolution and Impact of PET in Soft Drinks Remains StrongGLOBAL MARKETPLACE FOR PET

#155% of all soft drinks sold in 2014 through retail were in

PET bottles

4.3%growth for PET bottles in 2015

175growth for PET

bottles since 2004

Bill

ion



7

Emerging Markets are Recipients of 56% of PET DemandGLOBAL MARKETPLACE FOR PET

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20140

50100150200250300350400450500

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Global Demand for PET Bottles in Developed vs. Emerging Markets: 2004-2014

Developed Emerging% Growth Developed % Growth Emerging

Bill

ion

unit

s

% G

row

th43%

56%

43%

50%



8

Russia

Thailand

Japan

Mexico

Vietnam

Brazil

Indonesia

India

USA

China

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

Top 10 Countries for PET Bottle Volume Growth2015-2019, % CAGR

2015-2019 billion units growth

+ 39 billion units

Where to Go for Best PET Volume Growth

% CAGR 2015-19

+ 39 billion units

11%

6%

2%

7%

Billion Units





FINAL THOUGHTS



10

2015 Key Drivers Shaping PET Performance and Potential2015 VIEW ON OPPORTUNITIES FOR PET

Emerging Markets for Biggest Volume Gains

Polarisation in Pack Sizing: Rightsizing

Premium and Value-add Opportunities

Consumer Health and Wellness Preferences

Innovation to Support Brand Presence



11

PET Position in Key Categories Shows Ample Opportunity for Growth2015 VIEW ON OPPORTUNITIES FOR PET

Bottled

Wate

r

Carbo

nates

Ready

to D

rink T

eaJu

ices

Oils an

d Fats

Sports

Drin

ksMilk

Sauce

sBee

r

Dishwas

hing

-500

50100150200250300

-10123456

PET Bottle Penetration in Key Categories 2015 and Prospects 2015-2019

Billion units 2015 2015 Other Pack Types

Bill

ion

unit

s

% C

AG

R 2

015-

2019

PET strength in bottled water versus other pack types and

good for onward growth

Clarity of PET holds opportunities in Tea, Oils and

Dairy



12

2005-2015: Bottled water sales double

To represent just under half of all soft drinks volumes by 2019

2005 2010 2015 20190

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Global Volumes of Still Bottled Water vs. Other Soft

Drinks 2005-2019

Still Bottled water All Other Soft Drinks

Bill

ion

litre

sStill Water’s Absolute Importance to Consumer Beverage Preferences2015 VIEW ON OPPORTUNITIES FOR PET

Value-add expansion to be pursued

PET Prospects in Bottled Water by Type 2015-2019

Carbonated Bottled WaterFlavoured Bottled Water

+50bn

units30%

45%

35%

41%



13

Canada: Fastest growth country for sparkling water 2014-15 – 1 litre

Australia: Mount Franklin re-design, Summer 2015

US: Bullet design caffeinated water – 500ml

China: Heritage of source and design from Nongfu Spring

Desire for Added Benefits via Carbonation, Quality and Weight

Spain: Showing recovery – 1.2

litre




14

Healthy Option for on The Go…

…and Family Value Too

101-3

00 m

l

301-5

00 m

l

501-7

50 m

l

751-1

000 m

l

1001

-2000

ml

2001

-4999

ml

5000

ml+0

1

2

3

4

5

6

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Global Bottled Water: PET Pack Size Per-formance 2014-2015

PET bottle growth, billion units

Bill

ion

unit

s gr

owth

% g

row

th 2

014-

15

Polarisation in Pack Sizing Increasingly Apparent in Still Water2015 VIEW ON OPPORTUNITIES FOR PET



15

101-3

00 m

l

301-5

00 m

l

501-7

50 m

l

751-1

000 m

l

1001

-2000

ml

2001

-4999

ml

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

Global Carbonates: PET Pack Size Per-formance 2014-2015

Mill

ion

unit

s gr

owth

% g

row

th 2

014-

2015

Reduce Sweetness and Size

In Carbonates, Control over Sugar Intake Sees Shift to Smaller Sizes2015 VIEW ON OPPORTUNITIES FOR PET

Variation in Smaller Sizes

1. Fits lifestyle 2. Affordable 3. Procures value and volume gains

Canada591ml->500ml

China300ml

Various500ml



16

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Glass Bottles Metal Beverage CansPET Bottles

Carbonates Packaging by Core Pack Type 2010-2019

Bill

ion

Uni

tsFlavour and Feel Factors, Room for Big Value for Money Lines Too2015 VIEW ON OPPORTUNITIES FOR PET

Natural Flavour

Visual Impact

Value for Money



17

PET Bottle Growth in Ready-to-Drink Tea by

Region

Asia Pacific Latin America North AmericaEastern Europe Western Europe AustralasiaMiddle East/Africa

Innovation in Natural Tea Flavours Hits Premium Health Note 2015 VIEW ON OPPORTUNITIES FOR PET

+ 8 billion bottles

2015-2019

Gerolsteiner

Germany750mlApril 2015

Pepsi-Lipton TeaNetherlands

500mlApril 2015



18

Oils and Fats

Drinking Milk

Products

Table Sauces

Yoghurt0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

Leading Growth Categories for PET in Foods

2010 2015 2019

Bill

ion

Uni

tsClarity of PET Advances its Position in Edible Oils and Dairy2015 VIEW ON OPPORTUNITIES FOR PET

31%of 2015 sales of milk in PET in Asia Pacific

3.3%growth for PET bottles in Dairy

2015-19

38%of 2015 PET bottle

demand in Food is for Milk



19

Fresh

Shelf Stable

0 2 4 6 8 10 12

Latin America Milk Consumption 2010/15/19

2010 2015 2019

Billion litres

Brazil: shelf-stable milk +573mn litres 2015-19

Latin America is Shifting to Shelf Stable Milk, Opportunity for PET?2015 VIEW ON OPPORTUNITIES FOR PET




FINAL THOUGHTS



21

Focus Areas for PET to Consider Looking AheadFINAL THOUGHTS

Look to Emerging

Markets for Volume Growth

Value Growth in Premium

Flavour and Designs

Provide Right size

for Specific Consumer

Need

Engage, Innovate

and Explore Gaps for

New Openings


THANK YOU FOR LISTENINGRosemarie DowneyGlobal Head of Packaging Research

[email protected]+44 (0) 207 251 8024 ext. 1325


Global Opportunites for PET Bottles - The Size and Shape of Future Demand

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