Forecasting Technological Change (4)

04/10/23 1

Forecasting Technological ChangeForecasting Technological Change

Session 4: Integrative TechniquesSession 4: Integrative TechniquesPaul A. Schumann, Jr.Paul A. Schumann, Jr.

Glocal Vantage, Inc.Glocal Vantage, Inc.

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SessionsSessions

• IntroductionIntroduction

• Trend Analysis TechniquesTrend Analysis Techniques

• Expert Opinion TechniquesExpert Opinion Techniques

• Integrative TechniquesIntegrative Techniques

• ClosingClosing

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SessionsSessions

• IntroductionIntroduction

• Trend Analysis TechniquesTrend Analysis Techniques

• Expert Opinion TechniquesExpert Opinion Techniques

• Integrative TechniquesIntegrative Techniques

• ClosingClosing

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4. Integrative Techniques4. Integrative Techniques

• SWOTSWOT

• Strategic Market AnalysisStrategic Market Analysis

• Cross Impact AnalysisCross Impact Analysis

• Mathematical ModelsMathematical Models

• Innovation MapInnovation Map

• ScenariosScenarios

• Road MapsRoad Maps

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• SWOTSWOT







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SWOTSWOT

• InternalInternal– StrengthsStrengths– WeaknessesWeaknesses

• ExternalExternal– OpportunitiesOpportunities– ThreatsThreats

Explore Exploit

Avoid Confront

Internal Environment Weaknesses Strengths

Ex

tern

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Glocal Vantage, Inc.

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SWOT (cont.)SWOT (cont.)

• Primarily a way to collect and display Primarily a way to collect and display information to make a strategic decisioninformation to make a strategic decision

• Can be used inCan be used in– GroupsGroups– SurveySurvey– InterviewInterview– IndividualIndividual

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SWOT (cont.)SWOT (cont.)

• ScaleableScaleable

• SimplicitySimplicity

• Low costLow cost

• FlexibilityFlexibility

• CollaborativeCollaborative

• QuicknessQuickness

• IntegratableIntegratable

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SWOT SuggestionsSWOT Suggestions

• Be comprehensiveBe comprehensive

• Manage group dynamicsManage group dynamics

• Keep the thinking straightKeep the thinking straight

• Fight for clarityFight for clarity

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• SWOTSWOT







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Strategic Market AnalysisStrategic Market Analysis

• A logical way to structure a forecast A logical way to structure a forecast program and integrate the results of program and integrate the results of individual forecastsindividual forecasts

• Provides a way to examine interactionsProvides a way to examine interactions

• Can be used as a tool to facilitate Can be used as a tool to facilitate groups, surveys or interviews; or a tool groups, surveys or interviews; or a tool to manage a forecasting effortto manage a forecasting effort

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A MarketA Market

CustomersCompetitors Technologies

Sociopolitical

Economic

Demographic

Scientific

Opportunity Threat

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CustomersCustomers

• PresentPresent

• PotentialPotential

• PossiblePossible

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CompetitorsCompetitors

• DirectDirect

• IndirectIndirect

• StructuralStructural

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TechnologiesTechnologies

• EmbeddedEmbedded

• SupportiveSupportive

• EnablingEnabling

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Customers, Competition & the Future of TechnologyCustomers, Competition & the Future of Technology

• BasicsBasics• Driving forcesDriving forces• Customer needsCustomer needs• Competitive Competitive

responsesresponses• Technological Technological

capabilitiescapabilities

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• Identify and define Identify and define the marketthe market

• Select a time frameSelect a time frame• Identify and Identify and

describe questions describe questions to be answered or to be answered or decisions to be decisions to be mademade

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• Identify and Identify and describe the driving describe the driving forces for changeforces for change

• Look for positive or Look for positive or negative interactionsnegative interactions

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Driving ForcesDriving Forces

DemographicDemographic

SociopoliticalSociopolitical

ScientificScientific

EconomicEconomic

Demographic

Demographic

Sociopolitical

Sociopolitical

Scientific

Scientific

Economic

Economic

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• Identify and Identify and describe customersdescribe customers

• Determine present Determine present needsneeds

• Forecast future Forecast future needsneeds

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• Identify and Identify and describe describe competitorscompetitors

• Describe present Describe present strategiesstrategies

• Forecast future Forecast future strategiesstrategies

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• Identify and Identify and describe describe technologiestechnologies

• Describer present Describer present capabilitiescapabilities

• Forecast future Forecast future capabilitiescapabilities

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• Interaction with Interaction with driving forcesdriving forces

• Interaction with each Interaction with each otherother

• SynthesisSynthesis

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• Examine and describe Examine and describe the interactions of the the interactions of the driving forces with driving forces with forecasted customer forecasted customer needs, competitive needs, competitive responses and responses and technological technological capabilitiescapabilities

• Revise forecast as Revise forecast as indicatedindicated

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Impacts of Driving ForcesImpacts of Driving Forces

DemographicDemographic

SociopoliticalSociopolitical

ScientificScientific

EconomicEconomic

Customer

Customer

NeedsNeeds

Competitive

Competitive

Strategies

Strategies

Technological

Technological

Capabilities

Capabilities

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• Examine and describe Examine and describe the interactions among the interactions among forecasted customer forecasted customer needs, competitive needs, competitive responses and responses and technological technological capabilitiescapabilities

• Revise the forecast as Revise the forecast as indicatedindicated

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Cross ImpactsCross Impacts

CustomerCustomerNeedsNeeds

CompetitiveCompetitiveResponsesResponses

TechnologicalTechnologicalCapabilitiesCapabilities

Customer

Customer

NeedsNeeds

Competitive

Competitive

Strategies

Strategies

Technological

Technological

Capabilities

Capabilities

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• Combine the results Combine the results of all of the of all of the forecasts and forecasts and analyses into a analyses into a strategic market strategic market analysisanalysis– Executive summaryExecutive summary– Detail analysisDetail analysis– DataData

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• SWOTSWOT







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Cross Impact AnalysisCross Impact Analysis

• Provides a way to incorporate interacting Provides a way to incorporate interacting forces in a forecastforces in a forecast

• >16 different types in use>16 different types in use• Separate and explicit account is taken of the Separate and explicit account is taken of the

causal connections among a series of causal connections among a series of forecasted events and/or trendsforecasted events and/or trends

• Systematic means of combining forecastsSystematic means of combining forecasts• Interative use of a cross impact matrixInterative use of a cross impact matrix

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Cross Impact (cont.)Cross Impact (cont.)

• Effective technique for examining the Effective technique for examining the probability that an advance in technology will probability that an advance in technology will be affected by external forcesbe affected by external forces

• Useful for identify key technologies Useful for identify key technologies (technology that has a strong relationship (technology that has a strong relationship with other technologies)with other technologies)

• Qualitative or quantitativeQualitative or quantitative• Time dimension can be added through the Time dimension can be added through the

use of Markov chainsuse of Markov chains

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Cross Impact MatrixCross Impact Matrix

A B C ... N

A

B

C

... N

If this Event Occurs

Th

e P

rob

abil

ity

of

Th

is

Eve

nt

Bec

om

es

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Cross Impact ExampleCross Impact Example

The Probability of this Initial If This Event Occurs Final Event Becomes Probability Increased Taxes/Cost Negative Legislation Replacement Technology Market Saturation Probability

Increased Taxes/Cost 0.70 1.00 0.40 0.70 0.51 0.60Negative Legislation 0.40 0.20 1.00 0.38 0.31 0.50Replacement Technology 0.60 0.90 0.72 1.00 0.33 0.51Market Saturation 0.45 0.33 0.35 0.05 1.00 0.51

Fax Product

Source: Porter, et al

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• SWOTSWOT







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Mathematical ModelsMathematical Models

• Usually custom developedUsually custom developed• Application specificApplication specific• Structure and dynamicsStructure and dynamics• Ways to integrate and relate a number of variablesWays to integrate and relate a number of variables

– TechnologyTechnology– CostsCosts– MarketMarket– EconomicsEconomics

• Goal is to be predictiveGoal is to be predictive

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Mathematical Model ExampleMathematical Model Example

Source: Allan, 1999

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• SWOTSWOT







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Types of InnovationTypes of Innovation

• NatureNature– ProductProduct– ProcessProcess– ProcedureProcedure

• ClassClass– IncrementalIncremental– DistinctiveDistinctive– BreakthroughBreakthrough

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The S-Curve and InnovationThe S-Curve and Innovation

IncrementalTime

Pro

duct

ivity

Incremental

Incremental

Incremental

Distinctive

Distinctive

Breakthrough

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Innovation MapInnovation Map

Product

Process

Procedure

Incr

emen

tal

Distin

ctiv

e

Break

thro

ugh

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Automotive HistoryAutomotive History

• Experimenters & Hobbyists (1820s - 1900s)Experimenters & Hobbyists (1820s - 1900s)• Search & Learn (1900s - 1908)Search & Learn (1900s - 1908)• A Car for Everyone (1908 - 1927)A Car for Everyone (1908 - 1927)• Living Room on Wheels (1920s - 1950s)Living Room on Wheels (1920s - 1950s)• Synthesizing Market Demands (1950s - Synthesizing Market Demands (1950s -

1980s)1980s)• Life Style on Wheels (1980s - 2000s)Life Style on Wheels (1980s - 2000s)

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Experimenters & HobbyistsExperimenters & Hobbyists

Incremental

Distinctive

Breakthrough

Product

Process

Procedure

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Search & LearnSearch & Learn

Incremental

Distinctive

Breakthrough

Product

Process

Procedure

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A Car for EveryoneA Car for Everyone

Incremental

Distinctive

Breakthrough

Product

Process

Procedure

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Living Room on WheelsLiving Room on Wheels

Incremental

Distinctive

Breakthrough

Product

Process

Procedure

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Synthesizing Market DemandsSynthesizing Market Demands

Incremental

Distinctive

Breakthrough

Product

Process

Procedure

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Life Style on WheelsLife Style on Wheels

Incremental

Distinctive

Breakthrough

Product

Process

Procedure

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Innovation MappingInnovation Mapping

• Way to integrate and display a lot of Way to integrate and display a lot of informationinformation

• Can be predictiveCan be predictive– AnalogyAnalogy– Historical trendsHistorical trends– Opportunity/Threat AnalysisOpportunity/Threat Analysis

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Forecast ExampleForecast Example

Incr

em

en

tal

Dis

tinct

ive

Bre

akt

hro

ug

h

ProductProcess

Procedure

00.5

11.5

22.5

33.5

44.5

Relative Strength

Overall

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• SWOTSWOT







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ScenariosScenarios

• Narrative descriptions of possible futuresNarrative descriptions of possible futures– Alternative future characteristics of a technologyAlternative future characteristics of a technology– Alternative environments into which future Alternative environments into which future

technology must evolvetechnology must evolve

• Effective way to integrate and communicateEffective way to integrate and communicate• Useful as stand-alone forecasts if time series Useful as stand-alone forecasts if time series

data, expertise or models are lackingdata, expertise or models are lacking• Normative or projectiveNormative or projective

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Scenarios (cont.)Scenarios (cont.)

• Full richness of a future can be incorporated Full richness of a future can be incorporated into imaginative descriptionsinto imaginative descriptions

• Can provide rich, complex portraits of Can provide rich, complex portraits of possible futurespossible futures

• Can incorporate a wide range of quantitative Can incorporate a wide range of quantitative and qualitative information produced by other and qualitative information produced by other forecasting techniquesforecasting techniques

• Effective way of communicating forecasts to a Effective way of communicating forecasts to a wide variety of peoplewide variety of people

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Scenarios (cont.)Scenarios (cont.)

• Strategy development toolStrategy development tool

• Multiple scenarios usually requiredMultiple scenarios usually required– Decision spaceDecision space– DriversDrivers– Minimum of four scenariosMinimum of four scenarios

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AF 2025 (1995-96)AF 2025 (1995-96)

• Most important driversMost important drivers TeK: differential in the rate of economic growth & TeK: differential in the rate of economic growth &

proliferation of technologyproliferation of technology– World Power Grid: generation, transmission & World Power Grid: generation, transmission &

distribution and control of power, political, distribution and control of power, political, economic and military, throughout the worldeconomic and military, throughout the world

– American World View: US perspective of the American World View: US perspective of the world; its willingness & capability to interact with world; its willingness & capability to interact with the rest of the worldthe rest of the world

Source:www.au.af.mil/au/2025/monographs/E-S/e-s.htm

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AF 2025 (cont.)AF 2025 (cont.)

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AF 2025 (cont.)AF 2025 (cont.)

• Global Information Global Information Management SystemManagement System

• Sanctuary BaseSanctuary Base• Global Surveillance, Global Surveillance,

Reconnaissance & Reconnaissance & Targeting SystemTargeting System

• Global Area Strike Global Area Strike SystemSystem

• Uninhabited Combat Air Uninhabited Combat Air VehicleVehicle

• Space-Based High Energy Space-Based High Energy Laser SystemLaser System

• Solar-Powered High Energy Solar-Powered High Energy Laser SystemLaser System

• Uninhabited Reconnaissance Uninhabited Reconnaissance Aerial VehicleAerial Vehicle

• Attack MicrobotsAttack Microbots• Piloted Single-Stage-to-Orbit Piloted Single-Stage-to-Orbit

Transatmospheric VehicleTransatmospheric Vehicle

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• SWOTSWOT







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Road MapsRoad Maps• Projection of major technological elements of Projection of major technological elements of

product design and manufacturing together with product design and manufacturing together with strategies for reaching desirable milestones strategies for reaching desirable milestones efficientlyefficiently

• Roadmaps typically run several technology or Roadmaps typically run several technology or product generations (2 to 10 years)product generations (2 to 10 years)

• A science and technology roadmap provides a A science and technology roadmap provides a consensus view of the future science and consensus view of the future science and technology environment available for decision technology environment available for decision makersmakers

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Road Maps (cont.)Road Maps (cont.)• Predictive elements are supplemented with Predictive elements are supplemented with

targeted normative elementstargeted normative elements• Goal is to be more actionableGoal is to be more actionable• Avoids objectionable terms like “strategic Avoids objectionable terms like “strategic

planning” and “forecasting”planning” and “forecasting”• Industry associations and consortia have Industry associations and consortia have

embracedembraced• Corporations are using to help direct R&D Corporations are using to help direct R&D

effortsefforts

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ITRS RoadmapITRS Roadmap

Source: http://public.itrs.net/Files/2001ITRS/Home.htm

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ITRS Roadmap (cont.)ITRS Roadmap (cont.)

• Front end processesFront end processes• LithographyLithography• InterconnectInterconnect• System driversSystem drivers• DesignDesign• Factory integrationFactory integration• Assembly & Assembly &

packagingpackaging

• Test & test equipmentTest & test equipment• Environment, safety & Environment, safety &

healthhealth• Yield enhancementYield enhancement• MetrologyMetrology• Process integration, Process integration,

devices & structuresdevices & structures• Modeling & simulationModeling & simulation

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ITRS Roadmap (cont.)ITRS Roadmap (cont.)

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Integrative TechniquesIntegrative Techniques

• SWOTSWOT• Strategic Market Strategic Market

AnalysisAnalysis• Cross Impact Cross Impact

AnalysisAnalysis• Mathematical Mathematical

ModelsModels• Innovation MapInnovation Map• ScenariosScenarios• Road MapsRoad Maps

Data, InsightData, InsightSurveillance Material

ChangeChangeTrend Analysis

Formal

ApplicationApplication ProductiveExpertOpinion

PurposePurpose FinalIntegrativeTechniques

Potential Future Reality

Glocal Vantage, Inc. 64

Glocal Vantage, Inc.Glocal Vantage, Inc.

• PO Box 161475PO Box 161475

• Austin, TX 78716Austin, TX 78716

• (512) 632-6586(512) 632-6586

• [email protected]@glocalvantage.com

• www.glocalvantage.com

• http://incollaboration.com

• Twitter: innovant2003Twitter: innovant2003

Paul SchumannPaul Schumann

• Futurist and innovation consultantFuturist and innovation consultant• Application of web 2.0 to market & strategic Application of web 2.0 to market & strategic

intelligence systemsintelligence systems• Web 2.0 tools & technologiesWeb 2.0 tools & technologies• Application of web 2.0 to democratic processesApplication of web 2.0 to democratic processes• Broad perspectives on the futureBroad perspectives on the future• ServicesServices

– Strategic market research & technology forecastingStrategic market research & technology forecasting– Intelligence systems consultingIntelligence systems consulting– Seminars, webinars & presentationsSeminars, webinars & presentations

Glocal Vantage, Inc. 65

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Inc, www.glocalvantage.com.

Forecasting Technological Change (4)

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