Forecasting Technological Change (1)

04/10/23 1

Forecasting Technological ChangeForecasting Technological Change

Session 1. Introduction & Session 1. Introduction & Surveillance TechniquesSurveillance Techniques

Paul A. Schumann, Jr.Paul A. Schumann, Jr.

Glocal Vantage, Inc.Glocal Vantage, Inc.

04/10/23 2

SessionsSessions

• IntroductionIntroduction

• Trend Analysis TechniquesTrend Analysis Techniques

• Expert Opinion TechniquesExpert Opinion Techniques

• Integrative TechniquesIntegrative Techniques

• ClosingClosing

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SessionsSessions

• IntroductionIntroduction

• Trend Analysis TechniquesTrend Analysis Techniques

• Expert Opinion TechniquesExpert Opinion Techniques

• Integrative TechniquesIntegrative Techniques

• ClosingClosing

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1. Introduction1. Introduction

• Description of CourseDescription of Course

• What is Technology?What is Technology?

• Summary of Technology ForecastingSummary of Technology Forecasting

• Applications of Technology ForecastingApplications of Technology Forecasting

• Surveillance TechniquesSurveillance Techniques

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Description of CourseDescription of Course

• Four different types Four different types of technology of technology forecasting methodsforecasting methods

• More than 16 More than 16 different technology different technology forecasting methodsforecasting methods

• Plan and implement Plan and implement a technology a technology forecastforecast

• Competitive advantageCompetitive advantage• Increased innovationIncreased innovation• Increased profitabilityIncreased profitability• Creation of new Creation of new

marketsmarkets• Cost reductionCost reduction• Market expansionMarket expansion• Career developmentCareer development

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What is Technology?What is Technology?• ““Technology is systemized knowledge applied to alter, Technology is systemized knowledge applied to alter,

control or order elements of our physical or social control or order elements of our physical or social environment” - Porterenvironment” - Porter

• ““Technology is the systematic application of organized Technology is the systematic application of organized knowledge to practical activities, especially productive knowledge to practical activities, especially productive ones.” - Vanstonones.” - Vanston

• ““Technology is the practical application of knowledge. Technology is the practical application of knowledge. It manifests itself in the form of methods, materials and It manifests itself in the form of methods, materials and systems.” - Prestwood & Schumannsystems.” - Prestwood & Schumann

• Advances in technology or society always affect Advances in technology or society always affect themselves and each otherthemselves and each other

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Technology ForecastingTechnology Forecasting

• ““Forecasting is anticipating, projecting or estimating Forecasting is anticipating, projecting or estimating some future event, series of events or conditions some future event, series of events or conditions which is outside of the direct control of the which is outside of the direct control of the organization.” - Waddell & Sohalorganization.” - Waddell & Sohal

• ““Technology forecasting is the determination of the Technology forecasting is the determination of the possible evolution of the technical dimensions of a possible evolution of the technical dimensions of a certain material, product, process or service.” - certain material, product, process or service.” - MartinoMartino

• “ “ a quantified prediction of the timing and of the a quantified prediction of the timing and of the character of the degree of change in a technical character of the degree of change in a technical parameter.” - Brightparameter.” - Bright

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TF (cont.)TF (cont.)• ““to provide the means whereby a systematic to provide the means whereby a systematic

approach can be applied to obtain a better view of approach can be applied to obtain a better view of the future, one that is sufficiently sound to give an the future, one that is sufficiently sound to give an adequate foundation for decision making.” - Twissadequate foundation for decision making.” - Twiss

• ““Technology forecasting is the process of using Technology forecasting is the process of using logical, reproducible methods to predict in logical, reproducible methods to predict in quantifiable terms, the direction, character, rate, quantifiable terms, the direction, character, rate, implications and impacts of technical advance.” - implications and impacts of technical advance.” - VanstonVanston

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TF (cont.)TF (cont.)

• ““Technology forecasting is the process of discovering Technology forecasting is the process of discovering and communicating probable future technical and communicating probable future technical capabilities in order to make better decisions today capabilities in order to make better decisions today and prevent surprises tomorrow.” - Prestwood & and prevent surprises tomorrow.” - Prestwood & SchumannSchumann

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Technology ForecastingTechnology Forecasting• Focused on the futureFocused on the future

• Systematic, disciplined approachSystematic, disciplined approach

• Sufficiently sound to provide a foundation for Sufficiently sound to provide a foundation for decision makingdecision making

• Integrate intuition and rationalityIntegrate intuition and rationality

• Not for its own sake but to answer a question Not for its own sake but to answer a question or make a decisionor make a decision

• Must recognize the contextMust recognize the context

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TF (cont.)TF (cont.)• Can be described and explainedCan be described and explained• TeachableTeachable• Provides a procedure that can be Provides a procedure that can be

followed by othersfollowed by others• Can be checked by others to see if Can be checked by others to see if

mistakes have been mademistakes have been made• If conditions change, forecast can be If conditions change, forecast can be

redone and plans alteredredone and plans altered

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TelecommunicationsTelecommunications

Source: Porter

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ManagementManagement

• ““Regardless of what is being managed, Regardless of what is being managed, management implies concern for the future. management implies concern for the future. Even ignoring the future involves the implicit Even ignoring the future involves the implicit assumption that tomorrow will not differ in any assumption that tomorrow will not differ in any important way from today. All managers must important way from today. All managers must make decisions today that will affect the make decisions today that will affect the organization’s future.” - Porterorganization’s future.” - Porter

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Management (cont.)Management (cont.)

• When we make a technical decision today, it is When we make a technical decision today, it is essential to ensure that it will lead to a result essential to ensure that it will lead to a result which is appropriate to the circumstances, some which is appropriate to the circumstances, some time in the future.time in the future.

• As the future is not predestined, it is unknown.As the future is not predestined, it is unknown.

• The future will be shaped by today’s decisions.The future will be shaped by today’s decisions.

• Today’s decisions must be based on extensions Today’s decisions must be based on extensions of today’s knowledge and that involves of today’s knowledge and that involves uncertainty.uncertainty.

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Management (cont.)Management (cont.)• Organizations must develop planning tools Organizations must develop planning tools

that can deal with uncertainty and convert that can deal with uncertainty and convert unstructured data and insights into unstructured data and insights into intelligence that can be used to make intelligence that can be used to make decisions.decisions.

• Technology forecasting can reduce Technology forecasting can reduce uncertainty and the possibility of financial loss uncertainty and the possibility of financial loss resulting from a poor decision.resulting from a poor decision.

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TF ProcessTF Process

Inputs

Techniques

Output

Decision/Question

QualitativeQuantitativeTimeProbability

Planning Implementation

AssumptionsDataInsightJudgement

ProjectiveNormative

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Types of ForecastsTypes of Forecasts

Future 1

Future 2

Today

Normative

Projective

What are possible futures?Can we find a path to get to those futures?

What is the trend?What may affect the trend?What are the potential futures?

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Rationale for TFRationale for TF• Technologies usually grow in an orderly Technologies usually grow in an orderly

manner over time and through practicemanner over time and through practice• There is a consistency or pattern of There is a consistency or pattern of

technological change and abrupt deviations technological change and abrupt deviations are not commonare not common

• All innovations go through a processAll innovations go through a process• Technology casts its shadow far aheadTechnology casts its shadow far ahead• Technological change is the response to Technological change is the response to

various forcesvarious forces

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TF ApplicationsTF Applications

• Projections of rates at which new technologies will Projections of rates at which new technologies will replace older onesreplace older ones

• Assistance in the management of R&DAssistance in the management of R&D• Evaluation of the present value of new technologyEvaluation of the present value of new technology• Identification and evaluation of new Identification and evaluation of new

products/processes that present opportunities or products/processes that present opportunities or threatsthreats

• Analysis of new technologies that may change the Analysis of new technologies that may change the strategies or operationsstrategies or operations

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Technology Life CycleTechnology Life Cycle

Time (Effort, Experience)

Util

ityF

unct

ion

S-CurveS-Curve

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Innovation Life CycleInnovation Life Cycle

• Stage 1. Scientific findings; determination of Stage 1. Scientific findings; determination of opportunity or needopportunity or need

• Stage 2. Demonstration of laboratory feasibilityStage 2. Demonstration of laboratory feasibility• Stage 3. Prototype or field trialStage 3. Prototype or field trial• Stage 4. Commercial introduction or operational useStage 4. Commercial introduction or operational use• Stage 5. Widespread adoptionStage 5. Widespread adoption• Stage 6. DiffusionStage 6. Diffusion• Stage7. Social or economic impactStage7. Social or economic impact

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Stages of InnovationStages of Innovation

Source: Martino

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InternetInternet

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Stage 1

Stage 2

Stage 3

Stage 4

Stage 5

Stage 6

Stage 7

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Internet HistoryInternet History

• 1985: First registered 1985: First registered domain namedomain name

• 1988: Internet Relay Chat 1988: Internet Relay Chat (IRC)(IRC)

• 1990: First commercial ISP1990: First commercial ISP• 1990: Hypertext protocol1990: Hypertext protocol• 1991: World Wide Web1991: World Wide Web• 1992: Search tool1992: Search tool• 1993: Browser1993: Browser• 1994: Banner ads1994: Banner ads• 2000: DotCom’s2000: DotCom’s

• 1958: Advanced Research 1958: Advanced Research

Projects Agency (ARPAProjects Agency (ARPA))• 1968: Packet switching 1968: Packet switching

networknetwork• 1969: First four nodes on 1969: First four nodes on

ARPAnetARPAnet• 1971: E-mail1971: E-mail• 1978: Usenet established1978: Usenet established• 1983: Name server1983: Name server• 1984: Domain Name System 1984: Domain Name System

(DNS)(DNS)

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ObservationsObservations

• The full process of technological innovation The full process of technological innovation takes a long timetakes a long time

• Many factors influence the progress and Many factors influence the progress and direction of the technologydirection of the technology

• Government actions can impact technological Government actions can impact technological innovationinnovation

• Technological capabilities grow in an Technological capabilities grow in an exponential mannerexponential manner

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Observations (cont.)Observations (cont.)

• Rates of technological improvement do not Rates of technological improvement do not equate with revenue/profitequate with revenue/profit

• Accelerated progress happens when Accelerated progress happens when technologies interacttechnologies interact

• Mode of marketing and financing usage is Mode of marketing and financing usage is significantsignificant

• Strong present practices and values slow Strong present practices and values slow acceptanceacceptance

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Observations (cont.)Observations (cont.)

• Innovation is delayed if substantial capital Innovation is delayed if substantial capital must be displacedmust be displaced

• Exogenous events may alter progress Exogenous events may alter progress significantlysignificantly

• Pull is stronger than pushPull is stronger than push

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Four Causes of RealityFour Causes of Reality

• MaterialMaterial

• FormalFormal

• ProductiveProductive

• FinalFinal

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• FormalFormal


• FinalFinal

• Surveillance Surveillance techniquestechniques– ScanningScanning– MonitoringMonitoring– TrackingTracking

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• FormalFormal


• FinalFinal

• Trend analysisTrend analysis– AnalogyAnalogy– Precursor Precursor

developmentsdevelopments– Trend extrapolationTrend extrapolation– Limit curveLimit curve– Substitution analysisSubstitution analysis– Multiple substitution Multiple substitution

analysisanalysis

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• FormalFormal


• FinalFinal

• Expert opinion Expert opinion techniquestechniques– InterviewsInterviews– SurveysSurveys– GroupsGroups

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• FormalFormal


• FinalFinal

• Integrative techniquesIntegrative techniques– ScenariosScenarios– SWOTSWOT– Opportunity/Threat Opportunity/Threat

analysisanalysis– Cross Impact AnalysisCross Impact Analysis– Innovation mapInnovation map– Mathematical modelsMathematical models– Road MapRoad Map

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A MarketA Market

CustomersCustomers

TechnologyTechnologyCompetitionCompetition

DemographicDemographic

SociopoliticalSociopolitical

ScientificScientific

EconomicEconomic

EmbeddedEmbeddedSupportiveSupportiveEnablingEnabling

PresentPresentPotentialPotentialPossiblePossible

DirectDirectIndirectIndirectStructuralStructural

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SurveillanceSurveillance

• ExploratoryExploratory

• Frame questionsFrame questions

• Structure TF researchStructure TF research

• Increase awarenessIncrease awareness

• Provide data for a TFProvide data for a TF

• Identify emerging technologies, markets Identify emerging technologies, markets or playersor players

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Surveillance TechniquesSurveillance Techniques

• ScanningScanning

• MonitoringMonitoring

• TrackingTracking

Moving away

Moving tangentially

Moving towards

Not moving, getting larger

Not moving, getting smaller

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Boundaries

Model

Information

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From Noise to WisdomFrom Noise to Wisdom

Wisdom

Knowledge

Data/Insight

Noise

CreativityDiversityMethodologyConversation

FactsHistoryDynamics/StructuresEnvironment

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SurveillanceSurveillance• Articles - news, journals, magazinesArticles - news, journals, magazines

• BooksBooks

• ReportsReports

• InternetInternet

• BibliographicBibliographic

• Data/text miningData/text mining

• PatentsPatents

Intelligence is a prime Intelligence is a prime requirement for successful requirement for successful

technology management.technology management.Alan PorterAlan Porter

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• BooksBooks

• ReportsReports




• PatentsPatents

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ScanningScanning

• One timeOne time

• ContinuousContinuous

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Scanning ExamplesScanning Examples

• Nanotechnology/MEMSNanotechnology/MEMS

• Internet securityInternet security

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NanotechnologyNanotechnology

Source: Sandia

50 m

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Scanning With a Search EngineScanning With a Search Engine

www.kartoo.com

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Search Engine ExampleSearch Engine Example

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The World of NanotechnologyThe World of Nanotechnology

Electronic Systems

Mechanical Systems

ElectricalSystems

MaterialSystems

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MEMSMEMS

• Micro Electro-Micro Electro-mechanical Systemsmechanical Systems– Optical switchingOptical switching– BiomedicsBiomedics– Tire sensorsTire sensors– Cell phoneCell phone– Consumer Consumer

electronicselectronics

• 19% to 65% CGR19% to 65% CGR

• Other ApplicationsOther Applications– Micro sensorsMicro sensors

– Micro positioning systemsMicro positioning systems

– Digital theater projectorsDigital theater projectors

– Home digital videoHome digital video

– Data storage devicesData storage devices

– Optical tuners, attenuatorsOptical tuners, attenuators

– Bio chip, medical productsBio chip, medical products

– Under skin drug dispensingUnder skin drug dispensing

– Other automotiveOther automotive

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MEMS (cont.)MEMS (cont.)MEMS World Wide Sales

$0.0

$5.0

$10.0

$15.0

$20.0

$25.0

$30.0

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Year

Sa

les

($

B) BCC 2002

PRC 2002

In-Stat 2002

In-Stat 2002

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MEMS (cont.)MEMS (cont.)

• Basically a Silicon technologyBasically a Silicon technology– No universal building blockNo universal building block– Scalability is different (similar to analog and mixed signal Scalability is different (similar to analog and mixed signal

electronics)electronics)– Merging of mechanical and VLSI designMerging of mechanical and VLSI design

• Enabling technologyEnabling technology• Covers nearly every aspect of the economies of Covers nearly every aspect of the economies of

developed countriesdeveloped countries• Combination of sensors/actuators/communicationCombination of sensors/actuators/communication• Microsystems capable of performing tasks not Microsystems capable of performing tasks not

otherwise possibleotherwise possible

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• Pivotal application - tire pressure sensorsPivotal application - tire pressure sensors• Moving from sensors to actuators with controlled Moving from sensors to actuators with controlled

microscopic movementsmicroscopic movements• In US growing from 1.6 MEMS per person in 2002 to In US growing from 1.6 MEMS per person in 2002 to

5 in 20045 in 2004• Three distinct processing technologiesThree distinct processing technologies

– Surface micromachiningSurface micromachining– Bulk micromachiningBulk micromachining– LIGA (lithographie - lithography, galvanoformung - LIGA (lithographie - lithography, galvanoformung -

electroplating, abformung - molding) electroplating, abformung - molding)

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• MEMS industry has proven to be an enabling technology in several key MEMS industry has proven to be an enabling technology in several key economic sectors such as telecommunications and healthcare. The economic sectors such as telecommunications and healthcare. The explosion in MEMS-related research expenditures has led to the explosion in MEMS-related research expenditures has led to the creation of a new industry containing such infrastructure components creation of a new industry containing such infrastructure components as companies specializing in providing design software, design as companies specializing in providing design software, design services, specialty fabrication equipment, and fabrication facilities. The services, specialty fabrication equipment, and fabrication facilities. The range of applications for MEMS covers nearly every aspect of the range of applications for MEMS covers nearly every aspect of the economies of the developed countries. The most basic advantages economies of the developed countries. The most basic advantages derived from size reduction are less power consumption, lower cost, derived from size reduction are less power consumption, lower cost, and increased reliability. However, the most significant benefit is the and increased reliability. However, the most significant benefit is the ability of MEMS devices to communicate easily with semiconductor ability of MEMS devices to communicate easily with semiconductor chips. This attribute has given rise to the development of microsystems chips. This attribute has given rise to the development of microsystems capable of performing tasks that would be otherwise impossible. capable of performing tasks that would be otherwise impossible.

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MEMS (cont.)MEMS (cont.)• Development of the MEMS piece of the wireless pie has required significant Development of the MEMS piece of the wireless pie has required significant

innovation at the engineering level, while the electronics that provide the innovation at the engineering level, while the electronics that provide the wireless portion, by and large, are already well established. It is the pairing of wireless portion, by and large, are already well established. It is the pairing of the two that is opening the doors to markets and applications that have been the two that is opening the doors to markets and applications that have been waiting for such a breakthrough.waiting for such a breakthrough.

• The field will change from today's sensor-based technology to an actuator The field will change from today's sensor-based technology to an actuator technology, with very controlled microscopic movements. technology, with very controlled microscopic movements.

• The primary driver for the rapid expansion of MEMS remains the automotive The primary driver for the rapid expansion of MEMS remains the automotive industry, where manufacturers, especially automotive companies pushing to industry, where manufacturers, especially automotive companies pushing to comply with new regulations for tire sensors, are deploying a wide range of comply with new regulations for tire sensors, are deploying a wide range of MEMS products. MEMS products.

• Sales of wireless MEMS sensors are forecast to reach about $700 million in Sales of wireless MEMS sensors are forecast to reach about $700 million in 2006, largely based on the use of sensors in tire pressure monitoring systems. 2006, largely based on the use of sensors in tire pressure monitoring systems. However, this application is not yet a done deal a pending government However, this application is not yet a done deal a pending government decision could either completely eliminate this segment beyond 2006, or decision could either completely eliminate this segment beyond 2006, or provide for exponentially higher revenues. provide for exponentially higher revenues.

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• RoadmapsRoadmaps– NEXUS - 2000NEXUS - 2000– MIG (MEMS Industry Group) - 2001MIG (MEMS Industry Group) - 2001– MANCEF (Micro and Nanotechnology MANCEF (Micro and Nanotechnology

Commercialization Education Foundation) - Commercialization Education Foundation) - 20032003

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MEMS QuestionsMEMS Questions

• Wide range of market size?Wide range of market size?

• Wide range of market growth rates?Wide range of market growth rates?

• Definition of market?Definition of market?

• Resolution of process issues?Resolution of process issues?

• Tracking of tire pressure sensor Tracking of tire pressure sensor application? Other wireless application? Other wireless applications?applications?

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Internet SecurityInternet Security

• The Internet is the fastest growing communication The Internet is the fastest growing communication media of all time.media of all time.

• The number of Internet users is growing at 97% per The number of Internet users is growing at 97% per year and will reach between 500 million and 800 year and will reach between 500 million and 800 million people in 2000.million people in 2000.

• The number of Web pages is growing at 122% per The number of Web pages is growing at 122% per year and will reach 2 billion pages in 2000.year and will reach 2 billion pages in 2000.

• The number of E-mail accounts exceeded 450 million The number of E-mail accounts exceeded 450 million in 1999.in 1999.

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Internet Security (cont.)Internet Security (cont.)

• Wireless Internet devices and telecommuting Wireless Internet devices and telecommuting increases the vulnerabilities of the system.increases the vulnerabilities of the system.

• A significant portion of the growth of the Internet will A significant portion of the growth of the Internet will take place outside of the US, increasing its take place outside of the US, increasing its vulnerability.vulnerability.

• The primary concern is authenticity and integrity of The primary concern is authenticity and integrity of messages and content.messages and content.

• As a result of all the growth taking place on the As a result of all the growth taking place on the Internet, threat to the authenticity and integrity of the Internet, threat to the authenticity and integrity of the Internet is increasing.Internet is increasing.

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Internet UsersInternet Users• Internet users are growing at 97% per Internet users are growing at 97% per

year & reached between 500M and year & reached between 500M and 800M in 2000800M in 2000

• Continued growth at this rate, the Continued growth at this rate, the number of Internet users would equal number of Internet users would equal the present world population in 2004the present world population in 2004

• Definition of users?Definition of users?• 60% of the US adult population can 60% of the US adult population can

now be reached by the Internet vs. now be reached by the Internet vs. 80% by telephone80% by telephone

• The Internet is the fastest growing The Internet is the fastest growing communication medium of all timecommunication medium of all time

• In the US there are more women In the US there are more women online than menonline than men

• Teenage girls are fastest growing age Teenage girls are fastest growing age groupgroup

• ““We are probably the most vulnerable We are probably the most vulnerable country in the world because we are country in the world because we are the most dependent on computers the most dependent on computers and the Internet” - Gen. David Baker and the Internet” - Gen. David Baker (Ret.), the Washington Research (Ret.), the Washington Research GroupGroup

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Year

Inte

rne

t U

se

rs (

WW

, M

illi

on

s)

eTForecasts(2000)

ComputerIndustryAlmanac(2000)

ComputerIndustryAlmanac(1998)

Tapscott(1996)

USDOC(1999)

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Web PagesWeb Pages• The number of web pages on The number of web pages on

the Internet is growing at 122% the Internet is growing at 122% per yearper year

• If this growth rate continues, If this growth rate continues, the number of pages will reach the number of pages will reach 100 trillion in 2005100 trillion in 2005

• It is becoming more globalIt is becoming more global• Web sites will have to provide Web sites will have to provide

pages in multiple languages pages in multiple languages with culturally significant with culturally significant contentcontent

• ““The Internet is going to The Internet is going to change fast during the next five change fast during the next five years and change faster than it years and change faster than it has during the last five years.” - has during the last five years.” - Michael Erbschloe, Computer Michael Erbschloe, Computer EconomicsEconomics

• ““Data storage growth driven by Data storage growth driven by the use of web paged the use of web paged applications, multimedia data applications, multimedia data and data warehousing and data warehousing implementations, is increasing implementations, is increasing the demand for better backup the demand for better backup and recovery tools.” - Carolyn and recovery tools.” - Carolyn DiCenzo, Data QuestDiCenzo, Data Quest

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Year

We

b P

ag

es

(W

W,

Mil

lio

ns

)

Cyveillance (2000)

Cyveillance (2000)

NEC (1999)

Computer World (1998)

Projection

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Internet Security ResultsInternet Security Results

• Scan (111 pages)Scan (111 pages)

• Market forecastMarket forecast

• Business & patent strategyBusiness & patent strategy

• Business planBusiness plan

04/10/23 67


• BooksBooks

• ReportsReports




• PatentsPatents

04/10/23 68

Data Analysis MethodsData Analysis Methods

• Bibliographic methods - counts of Bibliographic methods - counts of publications and other bibliographic items can publications and other bibliographic items can help track scientific and technological help track scientific and technological developmentsdevelopments

• Content analysis - elicits patterns of term Content analysis - elicits patterns of term usage to infer emphasisusage to infer emphasis

• Data mining - seeks to extract useful Data mining - seeks to extract useful information form any form of datainformation form any form of data

Source: Alan Porter

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BibliometricsBibliometrics

Area of interest: MetricArea of interest: Metric

Fundamental R&D: Number of items in databases - Science Citation Index Fundamental R&D: Number of items in databases - Science Citation Index

Applied R&D: Number of items in databases - Engineering Index Applied R&D: Number of items in databases - Engineering Index

Development: Number of items in databases - U.S. Patents Development: Number of items in databases - U.S. Patents

Application: Number of items in databases - Newspaper Abstracts Application: Number of items in databases - Newspaper Abstracts

Growth rate: Daily Trends over time in number of items Growth rate: Daily Trends over time in number of items

Maturity: Topics receiving attentionMaturity: Topics receiving attention

Source: Roger Hough

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Data Mining (Anthrax)Data Mining (Anthrax)

Source: Oklahoma State University Technology Forecasting & Data Mining Team http://techforecast.okstate.edu

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Patent AnalysisPatent Analysis

Source: Roger Hough

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Surveillance SummarySurveillance Summary

• Surveillance has value at the individual, Surveillance has value at the individual, project/team, organizational and project/team, organizational and national levelnational level

• An organized surveillance project is a An organized surveillance project is a very valuable contribution to future very valuable contribution to future successsuccess

• It is the foundation of a good TF It is the foundation of a good TF program program

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• ScanningScanning• MonitoringMonitoring• TrackingTracking

Data, InsightData, Insight MaterialSurveillance

Glocal Vantage, Inc. 74

Glocal Vantage, Inc.Glocal Vantage, Inc.

• PO Box 161475PO Box 161475

• Austin, TX 78716Austin, TX 78716

• (512) 632-6586(512) 632-6586

• [email protected]@glocalvantage.com

• www.glocalvantage.com

• http://incollaboration.com

• Twitter: innovant2003Twitter: innovant2003

Paul SchumannPaul Schumann

• Futurist and innovation consultantFuturist and innovation consultant• Application of web 2.0 to market & strategic Application of web 2.0 to market & strategic

intelligence systemsintelligence systems• Web 2.0 tools & technologiesWeb 2.0 tools & technologies• Application of web 2.0 to democratic processesApplication of web 2.0 to democratic processes• Broad perspectives on the futureBroad perspectives on the future• ServicesServices

– Strategic market research & technology forecastingStrategic market research & technology forecasting– Intelligence systems consultingIntelligence systems consulting– Seminars, webinars & presentationsSeminars, webinars & presentations

Glocal Vantage, Inc. 75

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution

license. You may distribute, remix, tweak, and build upon this work,

even commercially, as long as you credit me for the original creation as Paul Schumann, Glocal Vantage

Inc, www.glocalvantage.com.

Forecasting Technological Change (1)

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