eMobility in Europe: Status and outlook · Status-eMobility-2015-03-04.pptx 2 This document shall...

1. Fachtagung "e-mobil in niederösterreich" S. Pölten, March 4, 2015

eMobility in Europe: Status and outlook

2 Status-eMobility-2015-03-04.pptx

This document shall be treated as confidential. It has been compiled for the exclusive, internal use by our client and is not complete without the underlying detail analyses and the oral presentation. It may

not be passed on and/or may not be made available to third parties without prior written consent from Roland Berger Strategy Consultants. RBSC does not assume any responsibility for the completeness

and accuracy of the statements made in this document.

© Roland Berger Strategy Consultants

Contents

A. Drivers for Powertrain Electrification 3

B. Status eMobility (eMobility Index Q3/14) 9

C. Trends 2020..2025 19


A. Drivers for powertrain electrification


eMobility is driven by customer "Pull" and regulatory "Push"

Importance of xEVs 2020 and 2025

Source: Roland Berger

high

low

~2020 ~2025

Customer pull

Regulatory push

Need for xEVs

Driven by

A Drivers for Powertrain Electrification


Europe will drive the global powertrain electrification – Long term cost competitiveness of xEVs generates additional market pull

2015 2020 2025

High efficient ICE xEV Customer pull Technology innovation Milestones framework

5

Importance 13 th 5-Year-Plan

Importance

Flexible powertrain architectures 48V

Next gen. Li-Ion batteries

94 g/km (58 mpg)

PHEV platforms 75 g/km (73 mpg)

Cost competitive next xEV

Importance 41 mpg

Cost competitive xEV

54 mpg

Importance

xEV city driving

17 km/l (40 mpg)

20 km/l (48 mpg)

Cost competitive xEV

Cost innovation xEV

2025 standards not yet defined


Regional powertrain trends (illustrative)



1) Average weight depended CO2 emission target 2) EPA & NHTSA estimates of g/mi for passenger cars and light trucks combined, driving cycle compensated 3) End customer pull for low CO2 emission/low fuel consumption powertrain and/or alternative powertrains 4) No decision made yet 5) 68-78 g/km under discussion

Corporate CO2 emission target [g/km]

Fuel efficiency targets [km/l]

≙ 15.1 km/l

≙ 20.3 km/l

CAFE2) [mpg or g/mi]

Additional ZEV regulation CARB ≙ 213

g/mi ≙ 163 g/mi

Potential4) corporate CO2 emission targets [g/km]

Additional potential fleet xEV target share

≙ 286 g/mi

127

2013

-41%

2025

755)

>2021

941)

114

154-26%

2025

t.d.b.

2020 2013

95

116

169

2025 2020 2013

-44%

101

132

178

2013

-43%

2025 2020

Regulatory requirements push improvements in most regions – In Europe, NA and Japan, there is also a strong customer pull

Assessment CO2 emission/fuel consumption regulation and customer pull

Source: FAW; EPA, EU; Inovar; Roland Berger

Customer pull

Customer will only buy cars with most efficient/lowest

CO2 emission technology (medium term)

Customer do not consider CO2 emissions/consumption

in purchase decision (medium term)



We expect costs of typical PHEV cells to be in a range of 130..150 USD/kWh in 2020

Impact of material improvements on cell prices1) – Typical 96 Wh PHEV cell [USD/cell]

-22% -18%

GEN 3a Increased

energy density

GEN 2B New materials,

scale effects

GEN 2A

cell cost

2015

23.3

~250 USD/kWh

130..150 USD/kWh

Source: Roland Berger LiB Market Model Q1/14

1) Cost for Auto. customers 2) Based on a high-density 50-50 mixture of NCM 111 and LiNiO2

• Gen 2a: NCM111 …523, Anode 100% Graphite

• GEN 2b: Ni NCM622 … 811, Anode 100%Graphite/HC

• GEN 3a: Ni NCM622 .. 811 Anode Graphite + 5..10% Silicon

• GEN 3b: HE-NCM, high voltage spinel silicon anode



Costs of TESLA's 18650 cell manufactured in the announced "Giga-factory" could be already at 120$/kWh, but higher integration costs

TESLA Gigafactory process flow (until cell) and estimated costs per kWh [$]

LiPF6 etc.: 8-10$

Other materials (Al, Cu, steel, ..): 25-32$

Energy: 120..140 kWh (0,03$): ~4$

35 GWh per year (cells) Costs to OEM: 120$..130$

Employees (total: ~6500, there-of assumed for pack: 500, 70-90k$ p.a.): 12-15$

Depreciation & interest (5 bn$, 7yrs, 10-15%): 35-42$

EBT of operators (8-10%): 10$

Source: TESLA, Roland Berger LiB market modell Q1/2014; Roland Berger

Raw

Mat

eria

ls

Cathode Manufacturing

Aluminum Foil

Separator Manufacturing

Anode Manufacturing

Copper Foil

Cathode Electrode

Separator

Anode Electrode

Winding Cell Ass-emby

Electrolyte Manufacturing

Can & Cap

Raw Steel/ Aluminum

Precursor: 12-15$

Polymers etc.: 5-7$

Precursor: 3-5$



B. Status eMobility (eMobility Index Q3/14)


Technology levels are relatively stable and few new models are being launched (except in China)

B Status eMobility

> Stable model policy with tried-and-tested vehicle models

> Very good value for money

0 100 200 300 400 500

Low

Moderate

High

Korea

China

Japan

USA

France

Germany

Avg

. sal

e pr

ice

[EU

R]

Avg. technology level [points]

Good

Poor

> Increased technical revisions of existing models (esp. battery)

> High-priced vehicles very important

> Continuing trend toward electrification (PHEVs) in upper segments

> Increasing number of expensive vehicle models

> Great volatility in model range > Slight improvement on technological level,

esp. due to joint ventures

> Renault Twizy continues to lose importance in model mix

> Renault Zoe Z.E. is dominant model

> Kia Soul and Kia Ray still the only Korean EV models

Source: fka; Roland Berger

Note: Italian OEMs have no mass-produced EV/PHEV models

EV value for money Country

Value for money of market-ready BEVs and PHEVs


R&D subsidies are declining strongly in most automotive nations

171

0

105

925

47

7,684

1,025

0.114

0.000

0.041

0.046

0.012

0.000

0.004

State R&D funding for e-mobility [EUR m], [% of GDP]


1) Subsidies expressed as a share of current GDP (2013??)

Country [EUR m] [% of GDP]1)

B Status eMobility


441

545

292

307

250

11

The US leads the way in vehicle production – Almost all markets have seen increased volume numbers

Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV, Nissan Leaf EV, Toyota Prius PHEV

Nissan Leaf, Tesla Model S, Chevrolet Volt PHEV

BMW i3, VW Passat PHEV, Porsche Panamera PHEV

BYD Qin, Kandi KD, Chery QQEV

Renault ZOE Z.E., smart fortwo ED, Renault Kangoo Z.E.

Kia Soul EV, Kia Ray EV, Chevrolet Spark EV

Projected production of EVs and PHEVs through 2017


Note: No significant EV/PHEV production is expected in Italy

Country Domestic production of EVs/PHEVs ['000 units] Top 3 models in each country

B Status eMobility


in LiB, Japan remains in pole position and China moves into third place – Samsung has made strong gains with European OEMs

Total: USD 4.4 bn

22%

26%

1%

5%

17%

18%

6%

0

0

100

4.600

4.700

8.900

19.200

Cell manufacturers and production, by country, through 2017

Source: Roland Berger LiB market model as of Q1 2015

1) 2017 market value in USD calculated as follows: USD 490/kWh for PHEVs and USD 350/kWh for EVs 2) Including Primearth's market share

2)

Projected global market share, 20171) Domestic cell production, 2013-2017 [MWh]

> Primarily LG Chem and Samsung > SK Innovation counted as part of Korean footprint

> Primarily BYD and other "local for local" players

> Leading cell producer > Panasonic is the leader in consumer cells

> Still primarily A123 and Japanese manufacturers with local production (AESC)

> Primarily LiTec

> No significant cell production

> No significant cell production

B Status eMobility


China has doubled its sales of EVs compared to the last period

33,185

52,944

16,207

13,049

856

1,648

119,710

0.05

0.43

0.12

0.90

0.23

0.71

0.73

Sales figures and market share of EVs/PHEVs, Q1 2014 to Q4 2014


Country Sales of EVs/PHEVs [units] EV/PHEV share of total sales [%]

B Status eMobility


C. Trends 2020..2025


16

Until 2021, OEMs need to reduce their CO2 emissions by 25-30% – major driver for electrification

94

-29%

2020 2012

132


-27%

2020

101

2012

138

98

-29%

2020 2012

138

2012

100

-30%

2020

143

92

-29%

2020 2012

129

95

133

2012 2020

-29%

93

133

2012

-30%

2020

92

2012

-30%

2020

131

93

2012

-24%

2020

122

93

-25%

2012 2020

124

91

121

2012

-25%

2020

88

2020

120

-27%

2012

3)

1) Incl. Mini, Rolls-Royce 2) Incl. Smart 3) Incl. Alfa Romeo, Lancia

2) 1)

BACKUP C Trends 2020..2025 – EU27


In Europe, xEV will remain niche until 2020 – Stronger electrification will be required to meet 75 g targets in 2025

1

7

Push factors

EV+PHEV share1)

Long-term (2025)

75 g CO2 emission regulation2) – requires significant xEV share for compliance

Today (2013)

130 g CO2 emission regulation for entire fleet 2015

Mid-term (2020)

95 g CO2 emission regulation in 2021 – requires some xEVs for compliance reasons

Pull factors

TCO advantage, but dependent on infrastructure development

Subsidies and benefits will become possible to accelerate xEVs

TCO disadvantage

Very few first adopters

Lack of subsidies and other benefits

TCO disadvantage

Lack of significant subsidies or benefits

99%

Other

<1%

xEV

Other

94%

9%

xEV

Other

xEV

31%

69%

Summary push/pull factors xEVs and xEV share [%] – EU


1) Based on sales, incl. EVs, PHEVs, PECVs and full hybrids, not considering "smart" hybrids 2) 68-78g range in discussion

xEV share driving factor

Page 17

C Trends 2020..2025 – EU27


All OEMs in Europe focus on ICE optimization and road load re-duction to comply with 95 g target, but minor xEV is also required


Assumptions

Assessment is based on potential CO2 emission reduction in each car model of an OEM

ICE optimization is most cost efficient lever for CO2 emission reduction, followed by road load reduction, xEV least efficient cost benefit ratio

Assumed changes in fleet structure – Limited shift towards smaller

vehicle segments – No change in average vehicle

power – No active shift in fuel shares in

a model line

Credits for low CO2 emitting vehicles are not considered

Potential of ICE almost 100% leveraged by 2020– Further reduction must come from xEVs

Volume OEMs – CO2 emission reduction [g/km]

Premium OEMs – CO2 emission reduction [g/km]

1) Full hybrids; PHEVs/REEVs; EVs ICE = Engine and other powertrain improvement, RL = Road load reduction (weight reduction, tires, aero), Fleet – Change in vehicle segment shares

7

26

95 1

129

92 3

7

19

2021

target

93

Gap

for

xEV1)

2

CO2

emis-

sion

95

Fleet

2

RL ICE 2012

123

20

8

8 98

106 2

136

21

9

10

Gap for

xEV1)

101

2021

target

CO2

emis-

sion

111

Fleet

2

RL ICE 2012

143

Mid-term emission reduction level of selected OEMs

C Trends 2020..2025 – EU27

//commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Ford_Motor_Company_Logo.svg

//commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Daimler_AG.svg


In the long-term, PHEVs and EVs used for short-range trips will become TCO competitive in Europe as battery costs decline


1) Only considering powertrain and fuel/consumption costs; Assumptions: 150,000 km/10 years lifetime, 15,000 km mileage p.a. (11,000 km short and 20 x 200 km long, consumption acc. to today's NEDC, fuel cost 1.7 EUR/l, energy cost 0.25 EUR/kWh

34

36

26

30

38

32

28

24

22

0

EV

37.7

PHEV

26.6

Diesel

micro

hybrid

26.7

Gasoline

micro

hybrid

27.0

Diesel

26.8

Gasoline

27.6

23.7 80% e-drive

30% e-drive

90 mi (150 km) range

210 mi (340 km) range

USD/100 mi

23.3

TCO comparison 2025 EU1) – Example C-segment car

Comments

With decreasing battery costs, PHEVs and EVs are expected to become TCO competitive by 2025

Availability of infrastructure and vehicle usage behavior are potential limiting factors to larger penetration of PHEVs/EVs

Strong market pull expected if infrastructure becomes available and customers adapt vehicle usage behavior to PHEV/EV capabilities (short-range usage of EVs and long-range usage of PHEVs)

C Trends 2020..2025 – EU27


80

85

90

95

100

105

2,500 2,400 2,300 2,200 2,100 2,000 1,900 1,800 1,700 1,600 1,500 1,400

Cost EU6

Efficiency 2021

Efficiency 2015

EU6 Base EU5

Efficiency 2021

EU6/Efficiency 2015

Base EU5

Additionally, as small diesel engines lose in cost-benefit ratio compared to small gasoline hybrids, Diesel will get under pressure

CO2 [g/km] (≙ fuel consumption)

Cost [EUR]

Gasoline

48V hybrid

Diesel

LNT, EGR

Diesel volumes under pressure in long-term


Example CO2 emission and cost EU B-segment vehicle (~90 hp)

Comments

Increasing penetration of plug-in gasoline hybrids expected, once TCO advantage exists and infrastructure is available

Gasoline hybrids are more cost competitive as mileage driven by ICE is not sufficient to payback higher cost of diesel engine

Gasoline hybrids offer similar driving experience as diesel engines (instant torque)

C Trends 2020..2025 – EU27


As a result, the xEV share in all major markets is expected to grow significantly after 2020, whereas CNG remains niche

2

1

Propulsion share 2020 and 20251) [% of sales]

1) Optimistic scenario: globally strict CO2 emissions/fuel consumption regulation; high energy cost; high cost reduction HV batteries; high investments in recharging infrastructure

Source: Roland Berger simulation

7%

25%

5%

6%

2025e

100%

64%

2020e

100%

89%

2%

2%

20%

39%

3%

2025e

100%

58%

0%

2020

100%

78%

0%

2%

8%

20%

4%

2025e

75%

1%

2020

100%

90%

1%

2%

100%

27%

4%5%

2025e

100%

67%

2%

2020

100%

93%

1%

2%

Diesel/gas engines CNG HEV/PHEV/REEV EV

9% 31% 10% 24% 6% 32%

1)

22% 42%

C Trends 2020..2025 – EU27

Contact and further information:

Dr. Wolfgang Bernhart

Senior Partner

Telefon: +49 (160) 7447421

E-Mail: [email protected]

http://www.ecoplus.at/

eMobility in Europe: Status and outlook · Status-eMobility-2015-03-04.pptx 2 This document shall...

Documents

Transcript of eMobility in Europe: Status and outlook · Status-eMobility-2015-03-04.pptx 2 This document shall...