1. Universidade de So PauloInstituto de Astronomia, Geofsica e Cincias AtmosfricasAir pollution modeling in the Estado de So Paulousing a bottom-up emissions inventoryOrientadora: Rita Yuri YnoueAluno: Sergio Ibarra Espinosa2/10/14

2. 1 Background Expanded Area: Sao Paulo,Campinas, Santos and more 3. 1 BackgroundE=FEVFTVLActivity Level 4. Top-DownWhere are thecars? 5. But in reality... 6. Bottom-upDynamics ofvehicular fluxshould beincorporated toemissions models 7. 1 BackgroundE=FEVFTVLActivity Level 8. RoadNetworkActivityVehicularflowVehicularTechnologyStandardsMunicipalityStreetModelsTraffic CountsRegressionand TrafficSimulationsStatistical EvaluationIAGHBEFAEmissionsEstimationVehicularflowCopert 4CETESBWRFChem24 hoursprofileMeteorologyEmissionsStreet-hour 9. Metodos206 points forcountingRegressions:Distribution PoissonZero InflatedNegative BinomialNormal 10. Modelo: intercept; 1: estimate; TR: Type of Street; : Error0 5 10 15 20 25 302.521.510.50Distribuio normalizada 800:900 segunda So PauloRM So Paulosegterquaquisexsabdom0 5 10 15 20 25 3032.521.510.50Distribuio normalizada 800:900 segunda So PauloRM Campinassegterquaquisexsabdom 11. RMSP RMC RML RMS RMSP RMC RML RMS Santiago AMBAIAG CETESB DICTUC D'Angiola1400000120000010000008000006000004000002000000Emissions inventories (t/y)CO (t/a) Nox (t/a) COV (t/a)