Embracing Theory of Change
Transcript of Embracing Theory of Change
Embracing theory of change
Tom Randolph, Jane Poole and Michael Kidoido
ILRI Institute Planning Meeting4-7 October 2016
What is this talk about Theory of Change?
• Accountability and need to explain how our activities will lead to the impact we want
• We used to use logical framework (logframes)– Focus on activities and outputs with leaps of faith to objectives and
goals• Theory of Change framework adopted by CGIAR
– More emphasis on how outputs will translate into impact– Understanding how change will happen and assumptions we are making– Being mainstreamed for M&E and learning
Learn to talk the ToC !!
Theory ?!??! Isn’t that what science is about: explaining cause & effect??
Health warning
• No agreed standard interpretation or presentation
An art form – as many different interpretations as there are people working with ToC
Focus on the general spirit, not on the details
• Needs to explain:1. Our cause-effect logic2. Our responsibility3. How change happens at all levels
At the Core: Our theory of why it will work(IBLI example)
Research
Economic principles +Remote sensing
Output
Index-based Insurance concept
Outcome
Inclusive commercial insurance product
Outcome
Poor livestock keepers are clients
Devel
opment
Outcome
Higher and more stable income
Impact
Stronger resilience for poor cattle keepers
The GOALA possible SOLUTION
Research
Economic principles +Remote sensing
Output
Index-based Insurance concept
Outcome
Inclusive commercial insurance product
Outcome
Poor livestock keepers are clients
Devel
opment
Outcome
Higher and more stable income
Impact
Stronger resilience for poor cattle keepers
The GOALA possible SOLUTION
At the Core: Our theory of why it will work(IBLI example)
Research
Economic principles +Remote sensing
Output
Index-based Insurance concept
Outcome
Inclusive commercial insurance product
Outcome
Poor livestock keepers are clients
Devel
opment
Outcome
Higher and more stable income
Impact
Stronger resilience for poor cattle keepers
• What evidence supports this theory?• If evidence is weak, what assumptions are we making?
Economic simulation modeling
Role of income smoothing in
poverty studies
Pastoralists perceive benefits and are
willing to pay repeatedly
Product can be profitable for
commercial companies
Pay-outs effectively smooth income
At the Core: Our theory of why it will work(IBLI example)
Sphere of Interest
Sphere of InfluenceSphere of Control
Setting it in an Impact Pathway: How? Who?
Research
Economic principles +Remote sensing
Output
Index-based Insurance concept
Resea
rch Ou
tco
me
Inclusive commercial insurance product- Pilot- At scale
Dev
elop
me
nt Outco
me
Poor livestock keepers are clients- Pilot- At scale
Dev
elop
me
nt Outco
me
Higher and more stable income
Impact
Stronger resilience for poor cattle keepers
Sphere of Interest
MEL for Development Effectiveness
Sphere of Influence
MEL for Research Use & Effectiveness
Sphere of Control
MEL for Research Relevance & Quality
STAKEHOLDER ENGAGEMENT
SDGs
Sub-IDOs, IDOs, SLOs
Changes in policies and institutions
Foresight &
Initial stakeholder
engagement
Research,
innovations & service
s
Changes in
capacity (KAS) & aspiratio
ns
Changes in
practice
Direct/ indirect benefits
Improved well-being
& eco-system health
Rapid assessment and learning loops Credit: Tonya Scheutz, Indicators Task Force
Highlighting how change will happen
Strong growth systems
Fragile growth systems
High growth with externalitiesCorporate Services
People & Organizational Development
Communications and Knowledge Management
Business DevelopmentCapacity Development
Intellectual Property / LegalRegional Representation
Research Methods
Sustainable
Livestock
Systems
Policy, Value Chains
and Livelihoods
BECA
Impact at
Scale
Livestock
Genetics
Feed and
Forages Develop
ment
Animal and
Human Health
An initial ILRI theory of change
Sphere of control Sphere of influence Sphere of interest .
SO3: Increased capacities
SO1: Im
proved Practices
SO2: Increased investm
ent
What we do… Goals (Impacts) Outcomes
Improved Food &
Nutrition Security
Reduced Poverty
Develop, test, adapt and promote science-cased practices; Provide compelling
evidence in ways that persuade decision makers; increase capacity among ILRI key
stakeholders and the institution itself
Assumptions (Critical success factors) • Science is right• ILRI is able to influence decision makers • ILRI grows capacity• ILRI is fit for purpose • ILRI is able to secure sustainable funding
Sustainability
Increased productivity
Increased resilience
Improved food safety
Increased income &
employment
IDOs
Livestock CRP Flagship ToC
Why is it important for us to talk the ToC?
• Being applied to guide our planning at various levels: ILRI, programs, CRPs
• Makes us keep an eye on impact and how it will be achieved
• Plays to our training as scientists– Emphasizes the role of evidence– Challenge our assumptions
• Can make us more convinced ….. and more convincing!
Extracted from:Strategic overview of CGIAR Research programs Part I. Theories of Change and Impact Pathways (December 2012), ISPC
This presentation is licensed for use under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Licence.
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